Wednesday, 27 June 2018

Angela Merkel: CDU and CSU at war on immigration

Not if but when

Should there be a Federal Election in Germany, CDU/CSU would get less than 30 per cent of the vote. CDU and CSU are at war. The issue: Immigration. CDU is the Titanic and CSU that still holds 40% of the vote in Bavaria doesn't want to sink together with CDU. 

In October 2018, there will be elections in Bavaria and Alternative für Deutschland would make important gains. CSU insists that Germany should turn back asylum-seekers registered in other EU countries at its national borders. Merkel says this violates the EU's principle of freedom of movement and is seeking European-wide and multi-lateral solutions, solutions opposed by Austria, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Italy, among others, who profoundly dislike Angela Merkel's intentions of flooding the EU with migrants.

CSU that threatened to impose border checks and the clock is ticking away. Would Angela Merkel be able to survive until the end of 2018. If she goes, there will be two political parties to watch: CSU and Alternative für Deutschland. If Angela Merkel goes, there will be a new Germany and EU will no longer be the same or will not even be anymore.

Bavaria is Germany's economic powerhouse. With Germany's power-base increasingly angry because of the immigration mess, it is not inconceivable that they will support stricter immigration policies that will put Germany on a collision course with Angela Merkel's policies.

A trade war with USA doesn't help Angela Merkel. In tit for tat, Germany will be the loser. Steel, aluminium and car manufacturing are the sectors to be most affected and this means job losses in German manufacturing. Add this to the fact that Germany will be forced to pay a lot more to balance the books of the European Union after Britain exist and this can only mean higher taxation to be paid for mostly by German industrialists and manufacturers.

Germany is a key country in Europe and Germany will follow the trend towards immigration controls and deportations. It is not a matter of if but a matter of when.


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