Rishi Sunak: EU embargo of Russian oil and gas will tip EU into recession

 

You couldn't make it up. On the one hand, Western politicians try to sound menacing and decisive and after speeches especially made with that purpose comes reality. Just a few days ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz raised the alert that such embargoes would seriously undermine the German economy. By extension if market prices go up, inflation will start to speed up in the EU and in the UK. Prices are no determined by particular countries. Prices are global. Only for this reason, there have been approaches to Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela to seek oil and gas production increases.

The Bank of England has just put up the basic interest rate on Thursday this week and announcing increases of interest rates would become the norm rather than the exception in months to come. Taking money away from peoples' pockets will curb consumption and curbing consumption means reduced economic activity. Reduced economic activity in turn means that with less demand many jobs will become redundant and jobs are being made redundant as you read both in terms of public jobs and private jobs. Why did a major ferry operator lay off 800 staff today? Is it because the company expects to have big earnings in the coming months? What about spring and summer when people tend go on vacation? Is it because they expect a reduction or an increase of the number of passengers wanting to travel to and from the continent?

The coming summer season could be a lot hotter and not just because of rising temperatures. Keep checking rising utility bills, travelling fares, fuel at the pumps and grocery bills.

The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011 is said to be coming to an end. This will make the political situation a lot more fluid. But putting aside national elections, let's see what happens to the British economy from now until the May 2022 elections. Ordinary people are living under enormous pressure and such pressure is bound to be stronger if unemployment and inflation suddenly pick up. The combination of the two will be deadly.  

Banning RT in the UK was the greatest sign of British weakness ever

 

By all means a country that barely has 80,000 troops including all branches of the Armed Forces is constantly trying to sound impressive. Cancelling RT license will attract a tit for tat reaction, but it will not change the fact that Britain as a military power is non existing and with every passing day the flow of people leaving Ukraine is growing (according to Western media) and this is no sign of success, but of ultimate defeat.

I have never ever seen so many organisations talking about welcoming Ukrainian refugees. If the Ukrainian side is winning, why according to Western media there are so many people leaving Ukraine? The answer is obvious if you care to use your brain instead of listening to the BBC and other Western mass media. When you see able bodied men in fighting age running away, you know in which direction the wind is blowing.

Ben Wallace MP, British Defense Secretary, together with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, recently made the announcement of a majestic 30 year plan to rebuild the Royal Navy by constructing a certain number of ships. The only problem is that you cannot fight a war on the continent using ships and thirty years is very long time considering an ongoing conflict.

 

They look the same, they think along the same lines, and they will be living next to you

Profile: Who are Ukraine's far-right Azov regiment

Azov is a far right infantry military group, ultra-nationalists with a white supremacist ideology. They have officially integrated into the National Guard of Ukraine. They carried out attacks against minority groups and its leader Andriy Biletsky said that he is leading the white races of the world against Semite-led Untermenschen (inferior races).

They wear symbols as Swastikas and SS regalia both as part of their uniforms and as tatoos. One of those symbols is the Wolfangel symbol which resembles a black Swastika on a yellow background. Groups carried out pogroms against the Roma community and attacked members of the LGBTQ community.

These are the people the so-called West is supporting. They are sworn anti-Semites.

These are the kind of people that will be coming to the EU and also to Britain. And they share the same ideology of other white supremacist groups that were very active in the United Kingdom.

Mass Media Blackout: Purpose? Not to allow the general public to know what is really happening.

 

At this point in time, all information coming out of Ukraine is fragmentary to say the least. On the one hand there is the propaganda war telling you that the conflict has stalled and giving images to fit in with the narrative and on the other is the data about advances inside Ukraine that is losing access to the Black Sea and therefore any intervention via the Black Sea is now a non possibility.

The map shows very clearly that all the talk about resistance is merely talk. Liquid courage not based on reality. Why would Ukrainian forces be blowing up bridges unless they were losing? You don't blow up your own bridges when you are winning. Seventy or so years ago, the French blew up bridges that would allow a rapid German invasion, but failed to destroy the ones that were used by German forces to advance very quickly towards Paris. At the time, remembering what happened to Warsaw, the French authorities declared Paris an open city so that Paris was not bombed.

 Away from the Black Sea there is Poland as the only way in if anybody wanted to get in, but getting in comes at the price of losing neutrality status and entering a new and much more dangerous phase in the conflict. Although some would like to enter, for Poland it is a very simple choice: if access is granted then Poland becomes the next immediate target and that will engulf Baltic Republics that are hanging on the sides without any means to repel an attack that will certainly come if a chain reaction based on NATO structure is unavoidable. The fate of all other countries all the way towards Britain would be sealed.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and Dominic Raab MP have explicitly said that they don't want a no-fly zone, let alone an intervention that could make Britain a target and unleash World War Three. If the numbers published by the so called West are to be believe, a massive wave of refugees has already entered Poland and from then onwards it will be coming to Western Europe, including France, Germany and ultimately Britain.

Right now, France is accusing Britain of not doing enough to deal with refugees. This comes on top of the issues affecting what is happening on the Channel region. Can Germany handle any more refugees? What about Hungary? As it happened before with Iraq, neighbouring countries will take the brunt. Olaf Scholz promised to invest not less than 200 billion EURO to beef up German armed forces. Having hundreds of thousands of refugees reaching Germany, on top of the existing refugee issues is not good news for the fledging German coalition. What about France that faces the first round of Presidential Elections in April?

Refugees in Britain? Britain can hardly afford social housing to cover present needs. Hundreds of thousands coming in on top of what is happening right now? Will the British government be taking over expensive private property to house refugees?

 

 

The realities of Nuclear War

 

Correspondence also sent to London Metropolitan Police and to Home Secretary Priti Patel

On the left, the image of London areas affected that could be bigger if instead of a 100 kiloton bomb there were several nuclear heads multiplying the destructive power. A missile can carry 14 nuclear heads.

Within the four inner circles, buildings will be erased and people will die immediately. Within the outer circle and beyond, radiation effects will take over. Some will die immediately and others will die painfully slowly. The descendants of those who manage to survive will be born with mutations and deformities.

During the evening, London has a population of about 8 million people. During daytime, the population of London grows because of commuting to the capital. So the estimate is that more than 4 million people will die immediately, the rest will die slowly suffering from high radiation doses.

 

The Russian Federation has stated very publicly that any no-fly zone will be a declaration of war while the Ukrainian President is attacking NATO for not implementing a no fly-zone. Since central areas of London are the site of political authorities and financial sectors, it would be expected that most Members of Parliament will be killed in the first blast. Buckingham Palace will be wiped out. Downing Street and other key departments like the Treasury will be wiped out. The City will be wiped out. Government, banking, communications, transport, financial activities will be paralysed. London will come to an abrupt halt.

London will have 15 minutes to prepare for it and it will happen when Britain least expect it for maximum repercussion and dire consequences. This will lead to the point of having to declare martial law in the United Kingdom. Civil rule will come to an end. In the chaos, healthcare facilities will not be able to cope. The rule of law will collapse with authorities struggling to maintain public order. Perfect environment for violence and widespread looting. Judging by the consequences of the riots because of the death of a black man in Tottenham some years ago and the inability of Police authorities to cope and prevent the spread of violence and looting across London that included burning of public and private property, I doubt very much that in a nuclear attack scenario Police forces will be able to cope and I also doubt that Armed Forces will be able to cope as radiation levels in Greater London will be so high that everybody who enters the area will be exposed to deadly radiation levels.  

 

Some years ago, there was a nuclear accident in Chernobyl. For many years, radiation exposure reached as far as Scotland. If a nuclear incident happens in London (or in several big cities including London) the entirety of the United Kingdom will be affected. The losses for Britain will be catastrophic. The human, social and financial consequences will be catastrophic. The British way of life will be wiped out.

This is why I feel so strongly that certain public statements made as knee-jerk reactions are extremely damaging and extremely dangerous. Cutting communication links is suicidal and this has effectively led to tit for tat reactions on both sides of the argument across the world. I always remind everybody about the Law of Unintended Consequences when events have a life of their own, when we lose control and end up just reacting to events that unfold and cannot be stopped.

I would suggest that only the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has the authority to issue official statements about the conflict. I copy this correspondence to London’s Metropolitan Police because they will be the ones leading with first stages of dealing with the catastrophe.

Faslane and other military installations as well as nuclear reactors and communication networks including airports and port facilities are obvious targets. With the fallout, digital transactions across the United Kingdom will be affected and this means that every aspect of life in the United Kingdom will be disrupted.  

Within 20 minutes, depending on the location of launching sites, most of what we know will be destroyed forever.

This is why I believe that restraint both in terms of what is said and of what is done is crucially important. Public hysteria promoted by mass media in the United Kingdom spreads across all levels of society in the United Kingdom.

Karl Hohenstauffen

London England United Kingdom

 

 

Einstein on Ukraine: Doing the same over and over again expecting to get different results is the definition of insanity.

 Dear Helen Hayes MP,

Thank for your prompt reply. I must say that in terms of what came first and what happened second, I do disagree with you. Right after the point when the Soviet Union came to an end and Ukraine returned nuclear weapons, everything was alright. Ukraine was facilitating passage of gas and oil from the Russian Federation to the rest of Europe, consuming Russian gas and oil itself and paying for the delivery of gas and oil that it consumed.

The second stage was the time when it became clear that the economic situation was not the best and some Ukrainian oligarchs were shown to be benefitting while the rest of Ukraine was suffering.

The third stage when payments for gas and oil were not made, the Russian Federation asked for payments that were not forthcoming and the political situation become turbulent and made worse by American politicians and EU politicians that saw an opportunity to damage the relationship with the Russian Federation and this we saw on the streets, is on record and it includes records of pseudo demonstrators that were paid to demonstrate.

The fourth stage was the rise of the paramilitaries that with or without authorization of the central government of Ukraine started to alienate ethnic Russians.

The fifth stage was the actual rise of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine when nothing was done to deter paramilitaries and ethnic Russian had to arm themselves and ultimately declared independence. Even at this point in time, they wanted autonomy, but not total separation from Ukraine. It would have been up to the Ukrainian government to tackle the paramilitaries to prevent a civil war.

For years on end, about eight years, the Ukrainian government could have used whatever degree of authority it had to impose the rule of law and prevent the actions of the paramilitaries.

Instead of providing support to bring the situation under control, the West aka USA used Ukraine as part of its anti-Russian strategy. It was done with Iran because Iran at the time was a close ally of the Russian Federation since the Russian Federation provided nuclear fuel for Iranian reactors and it was done in Syria that was also a close ally of the Russian Federation.

Iraq used to be a buffer zone. In fact, Iraq itself was used before against Iran and at the time the West looked the other way when Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran. What happened was that with Iraq out of the way the whole balance in the Middle East changed. Hundreds of thousands of Iraq flee Iraq after the American bombardment and ended up in Turkey, in Lebanon, in Syria – to name a few places. With Iraq out of the way, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel started their quest to fill up the gaps to create a new status quo. What happens in Yemen is very much part of the same game with Britain, Saudi Arabia and USA cooperating with each creating one of the worst human catastrophes because of their conflict with pro-Iranian forces.

So the issues of refugees is not new. It started big way with the disappearance of Iraq and of Libya as buffer zones. Nowadays, the mass media have blamed Belarus from the refugee flood. Let’s not forget that at one point EU was paying Turkey to prevent the waves of refugees desperate to reach Europe.

President Reagan promised Mikhail Gorbachev that with the Berlin Wall gone there would be no further expansion towards the East. Promises that were not fulfilled. Expansion continued apace with the threat of missiles right across the borders of the Russian Federation. What happened with Ukraine was the trigger, but it was not unexpected. The Russian Federation spoke about red lines that were crossed one after another, completely disregarding the concerns of the Russian Federation. Instead of delivering what had been promised, the so-called West – aka USA started to implement sanctions after sanctions and this was rubbing salt in an open wound.

Nothing has changed and the same failing strategies of imposing sanctions go on, antagonizing the Russian Federation ever more.

With regards to energy, despite the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian Federation continues to pump oil and gas towards European countries via Ukraine. Oil prices and gas prices are rising and will keep rising and we will soon see political changes not just in Europe, but most importantly in developing countries that can ill afford the rising costs of energy. This happens at very bad time when we are still recovering after two years of a pandemic that has generated vast financial damages.

We had a choice of bringing about changes via increased trade and development and now we are back again implement the policy of guns. The new German Chancellor speaks about increasing Germany’s defence budget by investing not less than 200 billion Euro. How is this going to work? It is going to pump up debt at the expense of everything else in a country in which there is galloping inflation. Let us remember how we got to this point. In 2017, CDU/CSU with Angela Merkel barely managed to form a coalition. She failed to form a coalition during the first round of negotiations with SPD that refuse to form a coalition. She then tried to form a coalition with FDP and Grünen and didn’t manage to do it. Then, as last resort, she managed to persuade SPD to come onboard again. That was 2017. In the recent Federal Elections, CDU/CSU collapsed from 41% to less than 25% and SPD that didn’t increase its votes was in charge of forming a coalition and did so with FDP and Grünen.  How stable such a coalition will be remains to be seen and energy costs will be a major factor.

If there is growing unemployment, the patience of AG Metal, the biggest union in Germany, will run out and support for SPD that is only represented in 11 of 16 Federal States will collapse meaning the collapse of the German coalition.

Rebuilding the German Armed Forces will not be green. It will require a lot of industrial power mainly based in fossil fuels – coal being the major German resources because Angela Merkel after the Fukushima disaster opted for dismantling German nuclear plants. If Germany becomes unstable – since Germany is the main support of the EU – the EU becomes more unstable.

The situation both in political terms and in geopolitical terms will be solved with more economic activity. Not less economy activity. Sanctions promote less economy activity. Less economic activity promotes unemployment. Unemployment promotes political instability. Political instability that the European continent does not need. You can then cross to France and see what is happening in France. The Socialists after Hollande are out of the game. What is left? Macron and two branches of the so called Far Right.

I haven’t even mentioned the Developing World. Argentina is drowning once again. More than 50 per cent of Uruguayan exports go to China. To name just these two countries, what effect do you think financial issues and the rise of energy prices will have in those two countries? They are not the worst off. Think about the others. In the 1950s and 1960s the collapse of agricultural exports as agricultural prices started to fall led to massive indebtedness followed by massive budget cuts leading to political instability followed by military regimes. Countries live in a cycle of unpayable debt and constant negotiation to refinance debts. How much so-called democratic regimes can take before we are facing another cycle of de facto regimes? In Argentina, there was a cycle of Justicialistas and Radicales. Both of them have proven to be equally ineffective. In Uruguay, the once powerful Partido Nacional and Partido Colorado have only been able to survive by forming a coalition and this is something extraordinary, and this coalition comes after the exhaustion of the so called Frente Amplio that itself is in crisis. What are the political alternatives? Is there a political alternative? What happens in Chile that was once one of the most promising countries of Latin America?

You need to look at the bigger picture. The sooner the present impasse comes to an end, the sooner sanctions are lifted, and trade re-starts in a big way, the sooner we stop talking war and start talking about economic development, the better we all will be.

Look at the big picture. What good came out of the struggle in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and of other military adventures? Is the world a better place because of it? Have you thought about Lebanon and the human tragedy that Lebanon is today?

We keep following the same failed strategies of the US that it itself is a mess with Congress having to pass again and again legislation to increase borrowing to prevent paralysis of the entire Administration and ensuing chaos. Is this the model that we want Britain to follow? Is this the model that we want Europe to follow?

I keep repeating myself and saying that Britain needs its own independent Foreign Policy. We voted for Brexit not to be attached to the designs of the European Union, we talk about trade opportunities, and the first thing we do is to use the same past failed recipes that lead to confrontation, waste, and social chaos.

As Paul Samuelson used to say, the choice is between butter and cannons.

Best regards

Karl Hohenstauffen