Thursday, 19 December 2019

European Union: Poland's troubles are just the beginning.

European Union: Poland troubles are just the beginning

Recent internal elections in SPD in Germany have led to new problems for Angela Merkel. The new leadership of SPD is demanding further concessions that Angela Merkel has dimmed unacceptable and this could mean the end of the ruling coalition. The German Chancellor who is no longer the leader of her own poilitcal party -CDU - knows that additional financial burdens that come on top of having to supply additional monies for the European Union will have a political cost that she cannot afford. 

SPD is making more financial demands, regardless of the fact that SPD lost the 2017 Federal Elections and has lost in every single state election that came afterwards -= Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony and Hesse in which Alternative für Deutschland and Grünen made huge advances. Alternative für Deutschland is the official German Opposition in the Bundestag and commands support in every single one of the sixteen regional parliaments in Germany.

It has been reported that it could take up to a year to approve the European Union budget and German taxpayers are in no mood to increase financial contributions via higher taxes or increased borrowing. If the German coalition falls, Angela Merkel could become the Chancellor in a minority government or even fall from power to be replaced by the present leader of CDU.

This comes as more and more CDU politicians are choosing to work together with Alternative für Deutschland despite threats issued by Angela Merkel herself to deter CDU membrers from effectively joining Alternative für Deutschland at local level. Let's remember that Germany is the driving force within the European Union and that her main partner - France - is facing times of great political uncertainty.

The landslide victory of the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom must have come as a bucket of cold water not just for Germany but for others within the ruling elites of the European Union who are now threatening to refuse to approve the Withdrawal Agreement that they themselves negotiated with the Conservative Government. The mere possibility of a No Deal outcome is what Germany's CDU fears most. They know that Germany will have to face pressures coming not just from the USA that doesn't want EU unfair trade practices but also from an invigorated United Kingdom. Germany sees its position as net expoeter threatened and this means less votes if the German economy falters.

If Poland were to leave the European Union soon to be followed by others, one wonders what could be worse: the political and psychological implications of mone countries leaving the European Union or the financial consequences. Just a few weeks ago, President Macron blocked the accession of Albania and North Macedonia arguing that it would no be advisable to incorporate new countries without implementing urgent reforms before such accession is even contemplated. Adding more countries that will be net receivers of EU funding is a recipe for disaster at a time when the main funders of the European Union are facing troubles of their own.


Tuesday, 17 December 2019

Labour: Choosing Corbyn ally as replacement Leader changes nothing

Labour: Choosing Corbyn ally as replacement Leader changes nothing

The name on the cards to replace Jeremy Corbyn is Rebecca Long Bailey, a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn. If she is effectively the new Leader, little will have changed and it would show that the Labour clique is not willing to accept the outcome of a disastrous General Election. A change of names while maintaining the 'Movement' will certainly condemn the Labour Party to political oblivion.

The failures of the Labour Party leadership were all too visible. While Jeremy Corbyn kept talking about negotiating a new deal and putting it to the vote together with the option to remain was contrasted with the views of the remaining members of the shadow cabinet that clearly said that they would negotiate a new deal but would campaign for remain. To put it mildly, they explicitly said that they would campaign against their own deal.

For thousands upon thousands of Labour Party voters and supporters, the attitudes of Jeremy Corbyn and its shadow cabinet were too much to swallow and they decided to support other political parties and most importantly the Conservative Party to get Brexit done.

But the Labour Party couldn't persuade voters to accept a manifesto based on sheer demagogy and political bribes. The Labour Party couldn't either get rid of the anti-Semitism scandal, scandal made worse by the fact that most of those who came up with expressions of anti-Semitism were Muslim Labour Party members that dominate the Labour Party in many areas across the United Kingdom. The two things go together: anti-Israel attitudes and hatred against Jews in the United Kingdom.

Choosing a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn, tainted by all the aforementioned, is an own goal. But lets not put the car before the horses. While Rebecca Long Bailey is being talked about about a serious contender there are other names on the cards.