Conservative government: What next?

 Conservative Government: What next?

Since the days of Boris Johnson and in spite of then then 80 seat majority, the Conservative Administration has been plagued by both issues that they could not possible foresee and control and by situations that arose because of measures they took that turned into yet another crisis.

The Covid Pandemic declared in March 2020 put everybody to the test and lockdown measures adopted to apparently tackle the pandemic generated a whole new series of issues, increasing divisions within the Conservative Government. It was about 'Lockdown or no Lockdown'. 

The start of declared hostilities in Ukraine was yet another test. Sanctions against the Russian Federation backfired and produced an energy crisis that destabilized the British Economy. The long standing stability with low prices and low interest rates gave way to higher interest rates and higher prices that in turn produced a series of strikes and forced the government to add more protection measures on top of the protective measures adopted during Lockdown to prevent a sudden rise in unemployment due to lack of economic activity.

Once the government started to regain control the crisis in Palestine opened a whole new can of worms. The fact that people immediately took sides reflects the tribal nature of Britain and this, unavoidably, led to yet another reshuffle to try and have some kind of equilibrium both in national terms and in terms of geopolitics.

All the way, from Covid, going through Lockdown, sanctions against the Russian Federation that led to rising inflation and the present issues involving Palestine, fractures within political parties became fairly visible. It is like walking on a high rope without a balancing pole. As the saying goes, 'keep your friends close and your foes even closer'. Loyalties are being tested to destruction. If Britain were to be involved in a real war tomorrow morning, this is a government that is struggling to survive until the next General Election due to take place in May 2024 and that will not be capable of dealing with war at home and war abroad. What would a General Election in 2024 achieve? For starters, it could be change, even if it is change for change sake. Having said that, when you look at what is happening across the home nations, political realities are much too complex to be able to foresee what the outcome of a General Election would be. 

North of the border, at times it looks like the SNP will collapse. At times it looks like any expectations about the demise of the SNP are very much an exaggeration. In Wales, the Labour administration might be unpopular, but then people might decide to stick to what they have got for fear of worse political realities. In Northern Ireland, political paralysis is a reality with Sinn Fein winning spaces and without a cross party agreement to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In England, the mainstream political parties are fragmented depending on what are the most important issues according to regions.

There are far too many issues that generate divisions both in terms of national politics and of international politics. You cannot promise one thing to please one side without alienating another side and you don't have the luxury of being vague in terms of where you stand politically.

Brexit: When you change one part of a deal you create a different deal.

Brexit: When you change one part of a deal you create a different deal

John McDonnell can talk about Customs Union as much as he wants but the fact remains that when you change one part of a deal that has already been agreed you change the deal and therefore have to return to the negotiations table and this menas yet another delay. What does another delay mean for the European Union? It means a delay in the proceeding, blocking the European Commission, leaving the European Parliament in the dark about who is and who isn't a Member of the European Parliament. The amount of time spent by EU authorities in negotiation after negotiation is time that the EU has not spent in other more fundamental issues for the European Union. John McDonnell, as other Labour MPs, is doing this not because of Brexit but because he has a political agenda to throw a spanner in the works with the belief that this would put him and his party in a better position come a General Election.

The SNP has a very public agenda. For the SNP, Britain is not what matters. For the SNP what matters is Scottish Independence to be achieved regardless of whatever happens to the United Kingdom. What hasn't enter the SNP's minds is that should Scotland become independent Scots will be foreigners in what remains in the United Kingdom and therefore a border will have to be erected across the border with England that will prevent freedom of movement of Scottish citizens. They will. have to have Scottish passports and apply for a visa to enter England or any other part of the United Kingdom. They will have to have their own currency supported by their own Scottish bank. They will have to have their own Armed Forces and they will lose all contracts and benefits they have at the moment as an integral part of the United Kingdom.

For the Liberal. Democrats, everything is about winning and elusive General Election. They became the fourth political party after the SNP and they are now rejoicing because rogue members of other political parties decided to join them. The question is: how long will happiness last? When a General Election comes those who chose to joined the Liberal Democrats might find themselves out of Parliament.

For the DUP, there is a very clear threat. If there was a General Election today in Northern Ireland, there is no guarantees that they will keep or increase the number of DUP MP in Westminster. In the wilderness, the DUP will have little say in Westminster and no say at all in Northern Ireland because the Northern Ireland Assembly has been paralized for the last three years when Sinn Fein IRA in violation of the Good Friday Agreement decided to leave the Northern Ireland Assembly. Sinn Fein IRA doesn't want Northern Ireland to exist. They want to annex Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland. For the DUP, there is a double wammy effect. The DUP doesn't like Abortion and doesn't like Same Sex Marriages. Because there isn't a functioning Northern Ireland Assembly, the Westminster Parliament in what constitutes de-facto Direct Rule imposed in Northern Ireland Abortion and Same Sex Marriages because there is no Northern Ireland Assembly that could oppose Abortion and Same Sex Marriages.

Rebel Conservative MPs are just playing into the hands of the Labour Party, a Labour Party that is divided and of which many Labour MPs don't want Jeremy Corbyn as Leader because of the danger of him becoming Prime Minister.

The only deal that could be put to the vote in a Referendum is the original deal that has the approval of both EU and UK and, even so, the European Union Parliament will only consider the deal that has been agreed by both EU and UK. As stated at the beginning, if you change one part of a deal you change the entire deal and this would lead to a new process of negotiations. Further delays for the United Kingdom and further delays for the EU that in the meantime will have no budget and will be facing UK Veto in the European Commission. 

  

British National Party - Police playing politics

British National Party - Police Playing Politics

It is not the role of Police Forces in the United Kingdom to be a political party. Unfortunately, the Police in this country behave like a political party. We experience this when Police authorities say that somebody cannot be a police officer or play any role in Police forces if the said person is a member or has been a member of the British National Party, of EDL or of a range of other organisations that happen to be political organisations. What is more such depraved attitudes of Police authorities is shared by politicians of other political organisations and those running the mass media in the United Kingdom. Entire segments of British public opinion have been excluded, discriminated against, persecuted, harassed, excluded from jobs in many sectors of the British economy.

When you hear voices talking against extremism, including representatives of Police Officers, you know that they don't have a clue about what they are talking about. If you systematically exclude people from engaging in lawful activities, you will push people towards extremism. 

Jack Renshaw and others that are in British jails were young people who had political ambitions and who wanted to engage in the political process lawfully via elections. They were not about violence. They were not about threatening to kill people. They were systematically discriminated against and their turned against a system that excluded them. For this we have to blame Police Forces, the Political Establishment and the Mass Media and their messages and their messages that demonised ordinary human beings. When they saw that there was no political outlet, they went off the rail and started planning to kill fellow human beings to vent their frustration.

Jo Cox was not a victim and she is usually depicted by the Political Establishment and the Mass Media. She was a victimiser. She was actively campaigning to reinforce the trends towards exclusion and demonising and she fell on her own sword when an individual went out of his way to get her out.

Today, Members of Parliament  complain that they don't feel safe. Well, Members of Parliament of all sides of the political spectrum represented in Parliament feel unsafe. The time was well overdue for Members of Parliament to be made to feel unsafe because we as ordinary people have been feeling unsafe for a very long time because of the policies of a Parliament that lives most of the time in cuckooland. Do ordinary people feel safe? You can ask the relatives of those who have lost their lives or suffered because of the climate of insecurity created by the Political Establishment. They talk a  lot about gang crime but they do close to nothing to deal with the realities that lead to gang crime and knife crime. For ages ordinary people have been forced to live in subhuman conditions and the said subhuman conditions lead to crime.

Zero Hour contracts, sub-employment and other ills of hour time, what do the Political Establishment and the Mass Media think that badly paid unsafe jobs generate? They talk about school exclusions. Well, where do most of those excluded come from? They come from households that live on the edge in a permanent struggle for survival.

Look at the membership criteria of political parties. When they justify exclusions, they are justifying social exclusion and violence. They talk about having a national debate. Well, a real national debate should include all segments of the political spectrum including those they classify as extremist. 

Let me give an example. Before the Good Friday Agreement, the Provisional IRA and others were classified as terrorist organisations and Sinn Fein - the political side of the Provisional IRA - was excluded. Was there peace? When did Peace finally arrive? When there were talks between people who hated each other to death. 

The Far Right and those called Far Right have a genuine right to be part of the national debate for the debate to be national. Until everyone is included and until Police Authorities are forced to stop talking political rubbish, there will not be peace and more and more people will be going off the rail and engaging in violence as the only way of making their views known.

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

The European Union is being playing with the situation in Northern Ireland as a way for force the United Kingdom into submission but this has backfired as UK moves towards Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

Yesterday in the House of Commons it became explicitly clear that the Good Friday Agreement is no more because Sinn Fein violated the terms of the agreement by walking away from the Northern Ireland Assembly and staying away from it for more than 500 days. This is one less thing to worry about and if Sinn Fein doesn't return there will be Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

The other issue the EU has being playing with is what is known as 'Hard Border' between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is not a problem for UK. If the EU and/or the Republic of Ireland want to pay for it they are free to do so.

Speculation about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister has also being used to blackmail the UK government but Jeremy Corbyn could only get in if there is a General Election and in principle there is not going to be a General Election until 2022. Britain is a Parliamentary Democracy and Prime Ministers can come and go without the need of having a General Election.

Whatever happens in EU, everything revolves around Berlin. Angela Merkel has just had a scare when tensions led to a potential break up between CDU and CSU. In Bavaria, Alternative für Deutschland is advancing as CSU is retreating. Angela Merkel struggled to form a coalition just a few months ago when she failed to form such a coalition with FDP and Grünen and after great effort she managed to get a deal with SDP. But without CSU, a General Election would be practically a given with no hope of success.

One out of six German cars is exported to UK and tensions with US in what is seen as a trade war could make it very difficult for Germany to be able to export cars to US. Angela Merkel knows that she is walking on thin ice and this is why the latest developments in the United Kingdom regarding an agreement within the Conservative Party Cabinet didn't elicit any comments. EU heads chose to remain silent for fear of tilting the situation towards a No Deal that could badly damage German industries.

As time goes by, with the resignation of more members of the British Cabinet, Prime Minister Theresa's May situation becomes ever more precarious and a No Deal would be the end result. The EU is now seeing that trying to blackmail the UK government was a very serious mistake.

We cannot possibly foresee the outcome but it has been said that some of the conditions agreed at Checkers would make it impossible to have a Free Trade Deal with the US. If this is the case, the proposals would already be dead.

If Sinn Fein doesn't want to be in the British Parliament, they should resign their seats

Sinn Fein doesn't recognise the British Parliament and its elected Members of Parliament don't want to seat in the House of Commons.

This anomaly should be resolved straight away. If you are elected to serve as Member of Parliament and you never join the British Parliament then your seat should be declared vacant and by-election should take place.

If a political party stands in a General Election and when having Members of Parliament chooses not to enter the House of Commons, then the said party should not be allowed to take party in General Elections.

Britain has put up for too long with the sillines of Sinn Fein and the time is long overdue for Parliament to exercise its powers to ensure that those elected as Members of Parliament actually work as Members of Parliament and do attend sessions of the House of Commons.

In the Good Friday Agreement, Sinn Fein representatives should have been told that unless they agreed to take part in politics representing their electorate in the House of Commons they would not be allowed to stand in British Politics.

Both DUP and Conservatives have something to earn from a political deal

Both DUP and Conservatives have something to earn from a political deal

Arlene Foster clearly knows the agenda of Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn and of Sinn Fein, agenda that has been publicised when the notion of a United Ireland was put firmly under the spotlight.

During political campaigning for the 2017 General Election, Jeremy Corbyn was asked repeatedly about his political sympathies and his closeness with Sinn Fein (political arm of the Provisional IRA).

Secessionist political parties like SNP got a cold shower with the advances of the Conservative Party in Scotland but Arlene Foster knows full well that the Conservative Party is the best guarantee of keeping Northern Ireland as an integral part of the United Kingdom. Should Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister, the chances are that Northern Ireland will not longer be a part of the United Kingdom.

Before a meeting due to take place tomorrow in which both DUP and the Conservative Party will lay down the foundations of a political agreement, DUP sources were quick to refute rumours about sectarian issues on the negotiations table. The weight of the public sector in Northern Ireland is considerable and therefore investment in the public sector and the issue of pensions in the public sector are fundamental in any agreement. This is why Arlene Foster spoke about maintaining the triple-lock on pensions. The Conservatives that were not keep in keeping the triple-lock would give way on triple-lock pensions to keep the DUP onboard.

In other areas like cross border transit, DUP is not far away from the position maintained by other political parties including Sinn Fein. Open-Borders between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are seen as a sine qua non condition to allow trade that is vital both for the Republic of Ireland and for Northern Ireland.

Gender issues that deeply trouble the Conservative Party would also be put aside to focus on economic issues that would benefit Northern Ireland and strengthen DUP with more jobs and more investment.

Both DUP and the Conservative Party share an Unionist Platform. They both want to maintain the integrity of the United Kingdom. Yesterday, the choice was between an independent Britain and a Britain increasingly dominated by the European Union. Today, the choice is between an United Kingdom as we know it and a fragmented United Kingdom.

As the news from Spain is about a Referendum on Catalonia's Independence, many would be reassured by a move to reinforce the integrity of the United Kingdom. Just a few days ago, SNP decided to put on hold its proposals for yet another Referendum on Scottish Independence after election results that clearly benefited parties opposed to the break-up of the United Kingdom.