German Coalition: Vote of Confidence due to take place in January will actually take place on December 16th 2024

 

The days of Olaf Scholz as German Chancellor could be numbered. 

The vote originally planned for January 2025 is due to take place on December 16th, 2024 and the Federal Election will actually take place in February.

This can change quite a lot in German politics at a time when urgent measures are needed to sort out German economics.

Germany was remarklably absent from a top meeting about the Environment. The German government has more pressing concerns when the Green Party barely has a calculated 10 per cent support across Germany and in three state elections only managed to get 7 representatives elected out of 120 in Saxony and none in Thuringen and none in Brandenburg.

As part of a deal to get a coalition together, hawkish Annalena Baerbock got chosen as Minister for Foreign Affairs. The fact that she could be on her way out within weeks would be a step forward towards peace in Europe.But the outcome of the Federal Election will tell the story and possibly write a new script.

The outsted Finance Minister Christian Lindner wanted to stop sending money to Ukraine by sending Taurus missiles instead. To have a member of FDP, a Junior member of the coalition, dictating foreign policy would have been a serious error of judgment. Olaf Scholz was asking to change rules to allow more borrowing. Christian Lindner refused to change the rules abour borrowing and decided to blackmail the German Chancellor to force him to adopt an idea he is very much against because of the dangerous implications of having Germany as the initiator of a European-wide conflict. FDP has no foot to stand on.

But money is in short supply and recent announcements about major German industrial players talking about factory closures and lays offs does not help. Energy and migration are bound to become even more important subjects. Increasing the Defense Budget? Where are the monies going to come from? NATO quotas could simply be unreachable. Listening to individuals like Ursula von der Layen or Emmanuel Macron might make somebody think that there are resources aplenty. Well, no. France is running huge deficits and Germany faces borrowing limitations. Any monies sent Eastwards come from borrowing. Will Germany and France - like Britain - go for tax rises? What effect would tax rises produce when unemployment is rising? What political effects will rising unemployment produce?