Here came the budget: Main target NHS and Second target the economy and particularly interest rates and growth.

The general thinking is that the Labour government will inflict pain earlier with the hope that near the next General Election the numbers will be much better to produce good feelings amongst voters. But this is a gamble by a government that publicly stated that if they had not inherited interest rates that were already going down the present announcements about borrowing could not have been made. 

Everything is based on the presumption that the economy will improve, that interest rates will go down and that repaying the borrowing will become easier. Another factor is promised improvements of the NHS. If the economy does not improve and if improvements promised regarding the NHS are not delivered then this would be a double political wammy that could bring down the present government at the next General Election.

The hope is that no crise like the Covid Pandemic or the energy crise generated by sanctions implemented against the Russian Federation or anything of the sort happens from now until the next General Election. Anything that would require much more borrowing and generate emergency conditions, negatively affecting. the economy, is not welcome. 

Et ceteris paribus? All other things being equal? Expecting that nothing will happen along the way that could change or derail present plans is a very negligent attitude. Things are bound to change. There are crucial ongoing conflicts and the seeds for more conflicts are being planted.

Now, lets have a look at potential trading partners. What is the situation in Europe? What is the situation in the Americas? What is the situation in Africa and Oceania? What is the situation regarding new players that are rising and increasing mutual cooperation?

The belief that new global associations will remain focused on the East and will not spread towards the West is extremely naive. We now live not in a bipolar world. We live in a multipolar world. In which direction the Americas, Africa, and Oceania will go is not a given. But present trends indicate that BRICS is making inroads. Those joining BRICS happen to be the most populous countries in the world. They also happen to be those which tend to have more resources in terms of raw materials. 

Founding countries? Russian Federation, China, India and Brazil. While the main Western countries have been involved in a rising number of conflicts, China has been spreading financially and economically across key regions of the world. The impopularity of the Western approach when dealing with conflicts is spreading and such impopularity does not benefit Western countries. China has not been involved in any major conflict. In fact, it is gathering more and more influence in countries that are far away from China.