Monday 20 November 2023

Javier Milei: New President for Argentina


Javier Milei: New President for Argentina

The electoral success of Javier Milei was such that Sergio Massa - the Justicialista contender - spoke before official data was published to concede.

It was essential for Sergio Massa to make vows for a peaceful and proper transition indicating that dialogue and peaceful coexistence are the rule in a country with extraordinary high inflation rates.
The key word is change. 'We need change. We cannot expect improvements if we keep implementing the same policies over and over again'. 

On December 10th, 2023, the new President will be officially, formally, inaugurated. Time to have a look at the new Argentinian Parliament. Javier Milei was successful in most Argentinian provinces and this includes Buenos Aires where he was successful in areas that had traditionally supported Justicialismo (Peronismo).

It is foreseen that from this evening within Justicialismo a leadership struggle is just beginning and that former President and now also former Vice President Cristina Fernandez will lead Justicialismo once Sergio Massa lost the Presidential Election.

There will also be a new balance of forces within the Union Civica Radical that divided itself. Some chose to support Sergio Massa and most of them chose to support Javier Milei. It is also said that, in spite of getting 56% of the votes, given the need to reach agreements in Parliament to be able to govern, the new President will have to be more moderate than he appeared to be during the electoral campaign.

The size and role of the state will be at stake. The general philosophy is to reduce the Welfare State to promote employment, to stop paying people not to work. There will be both ideological and financial changes. With three digit inflation rates, a huge effort will have to be made to generate enough jobs to be able to cut the Welfare State without a major upheaval and this indicates that any changes will have to be gradual in a country in which a very high percentage of its population lives below poverty levels.

Javier Milei indicated that he has in mind a different idea regarding Mercosur, but this will have to wait while the new President tries to sort out the internal situation in Argentina.

Commentators define Javier Milei as a charismatic leader and that charisma is based on success and that the electorate chose Javier Milei because they expect miracles and that to be able to produce miracles the new President will soon be in a collision course with traditional political forces that chose to support him to defeat Justicialismo. 

Argentina is a country in which both Cristina Fernandez and Mauricio Macri (one Justicialista and another Radical) have still a strong power base. Regardless of the electoral success (56%), the new President will have to navigate in a country in which he will have to deal with powerful foes and friends that have their own political agendas. It has been said that younger generations belonging to the upper middle class are leaving the country and that a high number of the younger generations that belong to the lower middle class no longer believe in democracy.




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