Triple Lock and Pensions: Nothing is guaranteed

 

The subject of state pensions will surely cause global warming

The Conservative/Liberal Coalition set out the triple lock aimed at protecting the value of state pensions and in 2019 the Conservative Party Manifesto stated that for the duration of the present Parliament the triple lock would be maintained - although momentarily, during the pandemic, the triple lock was suspended and due to be restored in April 2023.

The pension is supposed to increase every year depending on which of the following items is highest:

1) inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Prices Index) 2) average wage increase or 3) 2.5%

This was before the present economic environment in which inflation shot upwards and is now above 10%. The present goverment led by Rishi Sunak will have to make a fundamental decision in terms of keeping the triple lock at least until the next General Election or abandoning the triple lock. 

In a country in which the average age of the population is rising, telling voters that the government is going to abandon the triple lock is not a vote winner. There are also plans to postpone the age of retirement. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will have to make a statement on plans for tax and spending. Britain has one of the lowest state pensions when compared to other Western countries. and given present rates of inflation the value of state pensions is being eroded on a daily basis.

If the triple lock is abandoned, the value of state pensions will purely and simply collapse.

 

Rishi Sunak must be in UK: With no financial resources there cannot be a consistent environmental policy

 

The matters of government to deal with the energy crisis are more important than attending a talking shop and posing for pictures.

No sooner than Rishi Sunak was appointed Prime Minister, the usual culprits accused the Prime Minister for not attending an international gathering. Well, there are more urgent priorities to deal with at home to prevent a catastrophe.

At this very minute, 350,000 NHS staff are being balloted for strike. Why does Labour and others think that this is about? The strike if it happens should take place sometime in November so the authorities have some time to articulate a consistent response. Where should the Prime Minister be? At some talking shop about the environment or dealing with the National Health Service? No country can deal with environment when its economy is in a dangerous situation and therefore the priority is to deal with the economy now.

Regarding energy, the Green Party might celebrate the fact the Rishi Sunak has once again ban fracking, but funnily enough the Green Party has no immediate solutions to solve the energy crisis that is affecting Britain and coincidentally is the source of a financial, social and political crisis also on the Continent. It can take 40 years to build some of the alternatives and we need energy now. One way or another we are going to depend on fossil fuels because we need fossil fuels to build the alternatives proposed. Wind turbines are not made with wind power and nuclear plants are not made with wind power. The amounts of energy needed vastly surpass any amount of energy that can be produced with wind power. Electric vehicles are build with energy produced with fossil fuels.

Poland might enjoy the pleasures of 17th Century life-styles without electricity in the very near future, but do we want that in Britain in 2022. The possibility of having to deal with blackouts is very real. Can we have a digital economy with blackouts? Will lack of lighting make our lives better and safer? When our cities are plunged into the dark, it will be Christmas time for all kinds of criminals wanting to operate with impunity. 

From now on it will become self-evident that neither government nor opposition can prevent austerity

Einstein said something along the lines of 'doing something over and over again expecting different results is the definition of insanity'. Neither - nor government nor opposition - are willing to do what needs to be done. At the first sign of adverse public reaction - whether real or fabricated by mass media - they immediate surrender and become divided, fragmented. With these attitudes, neither government nor opposition can be consistent. We could keep changing Prime Ministers or we could have a general election, and we would still be in the same situation.

We sense a feeling of apathy. The general public does not seem to be interestered in what is happening in politics. Ordinary folk seem to have given up and accepted it as a fait accompli. They have heard it all before. Apathy and fait accompli are now part of the status quo.

Countdown: Rishi Sunak becomes British Prime Minister

 

Rishi Sunak becomes British Prime Minister and this in itself is a bit like a Christian entering the Roman Colloseum to be eaten by lions.

Given the fate of his precedecessors in recent times, the newly elected Prime Minister is well advised to keep his friends close and his enemies closer.

Perhaps this is the idea of integrating his Cabinet with people from various sides of the political map of the Conservative Party.

Hopefully, his political honeymoon will last longer but, as always, in British politics 24 hours seem like an eternity and he is very much aware that he is cruising along very treacherous waters.

It has been well established that when the electorate votes, the electorate votes for a particular political party and not for an individual. Boris Johson managed to get a majority of more than 80 seats in the House of Commons and this, at least theoretically, would give him enough room to maneuver. Having said that, with such a majority neither Boris Johnson nor Liz Truss managed to survive. The issue is then not British voters as a whole, but loyalties within the Conservative Party. For many, having avoided a General Election until now is a blessing as many risked having their seats go up in smoke if a General Election took place in the present circumstances.

The next hurdle is January 2023, month when travelling fares are usually adjusted according to rate of inflation. The British government managed to alley fears about utility rates rises until April 2023, but it cannot go on providing lifeboats if inflation keeps going up. Although TFL is said to have been thinking about a 4% fares rise, TFL has no control of other areas of public transport. The present inflation rates is above 10%. Rises can only be avoided with bigger subsidies and in the end no one wins because bigger subsidies are paid with borrowed monies. If we try to avoid borrowing then we have to think about higher taxes or budget cuts.

Lizz Truss bet on lower taxes as a way of boosting economic activity. Rishi Sunak campaigned to avoid tax cuts and therefore will have to get better results to avoid entering a cycle of higher taxes and falling tax receipts that could ultimately push the country towards austerity budgets.

Inflation is eating away public budgets. If this goes on, very soon public administration bodies, local and regional authorities will ran out of money and will be unable to maintain service levels.

According to reports, Rishi Sunak is de facto the new British Prime Minister from now until the next General Election that should take place in 2024?

 

If reports are true, Rishi Sunak will be the new British Prime Minister.

The question is: how long will he last before a new game of intrigues kicks in? 

What will stop Nigel Farage from putting into practice what he spoke about on television, regarding the formation of a new political force? Is the Conservative Party really and trully finished?

At the time of the leadership contest, Rishi Sunak was the favourite of the Parliamentary Conservative Party and Lizz Truss was the favourite of the Membership of the Conservative Party. Now, the roles have been reversed. Rishi Sunak is still the favourite of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, but the Membership of the Conservative Party has had no say or, what is worse, have been denied a chance to vote by the very same man that were standing to support who, according to reports, walked away from the contest.

The Hawks of the Labour Party will have plenty to talk about and there are no doubts whatsoever that the witch-hunt will continue all the way until the next General Election that is due to take place in May 2024. There is no end in sight of the Conservative Civil War with former Conservatives places a sharp-shooter from the fringes of British politics.

There are former Conservatives and present Conservatives that want the Conservative Party to lose the next General Election and many MPs are at this very moment thinking about their futures. What motivated Boris Johnson, who was seen as a favourite to return to the field, to abandon the fight? What about the future of women politicians? For what we know, Mordaunt didn't have the necessary number of supporters to be in the fight. Look at how Theresa May ended up after her electoral failures. Look at how Lizz Truss ended up after little more than a month as Prime Minister. Will women be trusted ever again or at least in the near future?

With the passing of Queen Elizabeth II and the arrival of King Charles III and of Rishi Sunak, the whole business will be a man's business. Let's have a look at the next Conservative Cabinet. In a matter of days we lost Priti Patel and Suella Braverman. Let's see how many of those left will survive and in what positions.

 

Three Candidates? Hope-ful or Hope-fool?

 

In the state Britain is at the moment, one wonders if anybody will be able to change the direction of travel.

This is not merely about economics so don't get your hopes up thinking that everything can be sorted with proper accounting. Decisions have been made in terms of geopolitics that have had enormous repercussions in Britain and elsewhere.

Everybody is trying to make sure that they are not the ones worse hit by the repercussions. We have got salaries whose buying power could evaporate. We have quite a few pensioners many of whom depend on a state pension that, despite promises about triple-locks, could find themselves struggling to pay for the basic necessities of everyday living. We have authorities in charge of delivering services with budgets that were limited when things were more or less stable.

When it comes to transport in London, for example, the Mayor of London has very little room for maneuver. If he agrees to demands made by those working for rail services, he will have to reduce support for bus services. Whatever he gives to John will have to be taken from Peter. How will local authorities cope when their bills go up with little support received from central government? January is not far away and January is the time of the year when travelling fares are adjusted 'according to the rate of inflation'. Everybody, whether they are involved in transport services or use transport services, will be hit. The impact of energy bills has been limited with funds provided to consumers until next April but such kind of support cannot go on indefinitely. The list of adjustments and re-adjustmens is extremely long and difficult to deal with in a single article. 

Will the British government be forced to reconsider geopolitical stances? It is by no means justifiable to send valuable resources abroad when the country is facing a burden that is pushing more and more people below the poverty line, regardless of the fact that the present troubles have been self-inflicted. 

The Russian Federation is going now for the Dwight Einsenhower Strategy

 

After the bombing of the bridge in Krim, the strategy of the Russian Federation has certaintly changed. They will now go for vital infra-structure and this means energy, bridges, transport and this is the difference between Arthur Harris's strategy and Dwight Eisenhower's strategy.

Without oil, without electricity, without communications, without railways, without transport, the Wehrmacht became a sitting duck and therefore the strategry of Russian Armed Forces will follow the path set out by the American Commander of Allied Forces in Europe.

Winter is coming and Ukraine will have to make hard decisions. It will be about leaving the civilian population without energy and without transport or providing its forces with energy and transport. 

Ukraine is already suffering blackouts and there will be more if dams and bridges are blown up. Isn't this what the Americans did to Serbia during the war that led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia?

It was revealed that Ukraine's efforts to destroy Russian drones are much more costly than the cost of the drones they are trying to destroy. Russian fighter planes are now coming dangerously close to British jets operating in the Black Sea Region. Britain will have to decide if it really wants to get involved. This weeks events in the United Kingdom are not reassuring. One thing is certain: the new British Prime Minister whoever he or she might be, will be served a bunch of very hot potatoes and will have to prove that he or she is capable of dealing with them.

In the meantime, populations of the zones at war are being evacuated by the Russian Federation to that only combatting forces are present so that Russian Forces have a free hand to exterminate anything on their path and so that Ukrainian forces cannot use civilians as shield. If you are in the area, you will have to a combattant and face the risk faced by combattants. This will be a "Carthago delenda est" (Carthage must be destroyed).

How far will be EU countries be willing or able to go is a major question. Zelensky's desperate efforts to get the kind of support that neighbouring countries are far from willing to offer tell you that all the messages about Ukrainian successes only exist in the imagination of those in charge of a massive propaganda effort carried out by politicians and mass media.

 

  

Blackout Britain: Britain is losing the war

Britain is losing the war

Blackouts from January 2023 onwards? Maybe earlier. British is losing the war and this is the direct consequence of measures taken against the Russian Federation and by extension the EU is losing the war as double digit inflation rates and energy scarcety will put Democracy itself in jeopardy.

Can you imagine the impact of having big cities plunging into the dark? This is Christmas for criminals that will take advantage of the dark to carry out their criminal activities. Will cities living in the dark be safer or unsafer places to live in? Families that are already struggling to make ends meet will see their lives further disrupted or totally destroyed.

Shortsighted geopolitical decisions have generated a nightmare that it is not going to go away anytime soon. Energy sources cannot be replaced that easily. What about the so called 'electricity revolution'? Will our technological society survive without electricity? Clean air? Less polution? If you don't have electricity, burning coal and forests will be valid alternatives. And what about water services? Can water services operate without electricity?

Can the digital economy operate without electricity? Most of what we do depends on having access to digital services and it is most worrying to think about life support without energy. If you are somebody whose life literally depends on having access to electricity to keep you alive, then you are in serious trouble. For a very long list of reasons, we must have 24/7 access to electricity. This is a point when it is no longer about politics or political stances. 

Unfortunately, we have got politicians that act first and think later. Was the present energy crisis predictable? Of course, it was. When you do something to somebody else, you can except that somebody else will react and this is exactly what has happened. If you depend on energy supplies and apply sanctions against a country against that provides energy supplies then there will be retaliation. And this is exactly what happened. It is ridiculous for Liz Truss to go around blaming the Russian Federation for reducing or cutting energy supplies when she is very much in favour of sanctions against the Russian Federation and in favour of supplying money and weapons to those who are at war with the Russian Federation. It is the equivalent of Winston Churchill asking National Socialist Germany to supply oil to Britain when they two countries were at war with each other.  

 

 

Ukraine winning? You can believe it if you are a child or mentally handicapped.

The Ukrainian government made a fatal error. Attacking a bridge in Krim merely served to reinforce Russian determination to carry on and intensify attacks. Generation after generation have not been told important history lessons.

In 1939, the Wehrmacht bombarded Warsaw, the Polish capital. It was massive even with the technology of the 1930s. You can imagine what the Russian Federation could do with the technology of the Twenty-First Century. If the Russian Federation wanted it could vaporise Ukrainian cities and the longer the conflict goes on the chances of this happening are rising.

The incompetence of Western politicians is appalling. You don't need any evidence looking at the present political crisis in the United Kingdom. They cannot run Britain, let alone deal with geopolitical situations. Speeches and slogans is all they can do. Even the present Prime Minister when she was Foreign Secretary supported a reduction of the British Armed Forces while talking about a possible war in Europe and in Asia. They don't seem to connect what they are saying with reality. Mass media journalists are not far behind. They don't seem to have a brain apart from trying to exploit peoples' ignorance with puffs of smoke. 

The demonisation of the Russian Federation is what created the present crisis. Some still believe that the Soviet Union is still around. They are totally unaware of political developments and disconnected from reality. Sanctions against the Russian Federation? Who benefits? Look at the state of quite a few EU countries. Without energy and with double-digit inflation rates it is not difficult to image what will happen when their economies go downhill.

If this wasn't enough, at the recent meeting of the Communist Party in China, the Chinese Premier made it all too clear. Preparations for the recovery of Taipei (Taiwan) continue apace and when it happens all the statements made by the USA and other countries will be no more than chit chat. And what about allegiances in Europe? The German economy has a huge stake in China. If you read the news you will know. BMW just announced the relocation of a UK operation to China. Why is that? It is pure and simple economics but it tells you that Germany will not be inclined to support any actions against China and so the main NATO ally in the continent will not want to get involved in a war against China. Let's also have a look at Middle East and Asia Minor. Saudi Arabia is not a willing partner of the so called West and Iran has been constantly pushed to support the other side. Some of the richest oil producers are no longer in the West side. Given the present difficulties in Eastern Europe and the reduction or cancellation of supplies of gas and oil coming from that part of the world, what will happen if supplies from Middle East and Asia Minor also dwindle or disappear? Will the financial crisis in Europe be better or worse?

 Double-digit rates of inflation in the European Union

This is what is happening in many EU countries right now. Will the energy crisis make anything better or worse? Knee-jerk reactions are leading many European countries towards a major disaster. Britain's backwards and forwards political decisions do not favour any kind of political stability either. This comes on top of the COVID disaster and the rabid anti-Russian attitudes that might be leading the continent towards a political blackout. Investors need to trust that European economies are in capable hands. Are they?

Welfare systems don't have the capacity to deal with changes of such magnitude and the financial system is bound to suffer if suddenly customers cannot afford to repay debts or to keep up with mortgage payments. There comes a time when interest payments become unaffordable and Argentina could teach us a few lessons about that. Mortgage defaults and inabilty to rent accommodation are major issues. There is even the case of landlords who explicitly say that they do not let properties to people who can only pay for accommodation with welfare payments. There will be even less properties let  to people supported with welfare payments if legislation is passed preventing landlords from evicting tenants who cannot afford tenacy payments.

Britain is in a dire position. Who is the Prime Minister? Who is the Chancellor of the Exchequer? Who is in charge? What will be the tax regime tomorrow? Day-after tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Political volatility and economic volatility go hand in hand.

Germany is no better. SPD barely managed to form a coalition that could be broken apart by the consequences of energy crisis. Job creation? If manufacturing is torpedoed by energy prices or scarcety of energy sources, the concern will not be about creating more jobs, but about keeping the ones that already exist. BMW's move to China might be due to several factors including an uncertan tax environment, the prospect of energy cuts, the fact that China is not deterred from building new coal fired energy plants and therefore able of offering cheaper and reliable sources of energy and if this wasn't enough the fact that China is a gigantic market.

If financial sectors get into trouble - it happened before - will governments be willing or be capable of rescuing financial sectors? And what about industrial unrest? Are we thinking about the consequences of persistent industrial unrest? For every strike i.e. transport strike, how many other areas are negatively impacted? If strikes happen simultaneouly, the impact is compounded.  

 

 

While some Western countries risk going into recession because of so called green policies, China and others forge ahead using more and more fossil fuels

The present situation could only be described as nonsensical. We wake up to the news that BMW is moving part of its operations in the UK to China. Surprised? Absolutely not. China is using more and more fossil fuels and building more and more energy plants that consume coal and therefore has the competitive edge. On the other hand, some of the most advanced Western economies are starving themselves of energy and talking about blackouts while adding taxes to already high production costs.

We are not going to save the planet by destroying Western economies. All we are managing to do is to create social and political crisis of major proportions. We are involved in a process of self-destruction. Energy costs are preventing us from being competitive and we are going to be seeing lower standards caused by excessive production costs. This is turn is going to create social conflicts that are going to lead to political instability and violence.

The climate hysteria is reaching astronomical proportions with people glueing themselves to roads, blocking passing traffic, destroying public and private property as if by engaging in irrational acts they were going to do anything to prevent damage to the environment. The damage is being done to the social fabric of Western countries, and politicians, mass media and educational institutions are very much part of the climate of irrationality.

Countries are people: We must not allow homelessness or housing instability

 

As somebody who has been married for more than 28 years and brought up three children, I fully understand the importance of having a set abode. Where you live, the quality of the place where you live, and the stability of accommodation is a crucial factor that should never be underestimated.

If for whatever reason you don't live in adequate accommodation or if you are constantly having to move around, your life and your family life will be dramatically affected in a very negative way.

When you look at the language of social services, there is an emphasis on stable families, suitable environment to raise children, et cetera. Such considerations should be ever present when it comes to policies that affect housing. High rental costs for people who can ill afford to buy their own accommodation are a death trap that puts families in danger and ultimately will create a very unstable society.

For most people, working means having to travel around and much time, money and health are spent travelling around. If you live far away from the places where you work, you are going to be spending a long time on the road and this is time that you are not to be spending with your family, looking after your family, and you are going to be losing many opportunities. If on top of that, you have no certainty in terms of where you are going to be living in, you are going to struggle with travelling arrangements and your children are most probably have to move from one school to another and unable to form stable social relationships. This will feel like being regularly uprooted. This is what far too many families in the United Kingdom are facing right now.

If we ignore or underestimate the aforementioned realities, as a country we are bound to pay a very high price because countries are basically people. 

KGH

The biggest enemy are not countries nor terrorist organisations. Corruption is the biggest enemy.

Forget about enemy countries and terrorist organisations. Corruption is the biggest enemy of the Western World. 

The imbalances that endanger the Western World have been created by the Western World and we have reached such point as a direct consequence of having proven to be unable to cope with new realities.  Key nations of the Western World have been committing either one error of judgment after another or this has been the intention from the very beginning by exploiting chaos as a way to divert resources into the hands of private operators that could not care less about the common good.

No matter how many technological advances the Western World has and no matter how much financial power the Western World has, corruption ends up destroying the things we care most about.

Conflicts are being used to syphon money away from where it is most needed. Under the cover of national security and defence used as justification, vast amounts of resources are being squandered with little or no accountability.

There is no mystery regarding the fact that we seem to go from one conflict into another. Conflicts mean money. Being constantly at war or about to go to war is the perfect excuse for misuse of taxation monies and elected representatives are very much part of the game. Therefore, we cannot expect that this situation will go away any time soon.

The monies that were supposed to help Iraq disappeared into thin air. No wonder then about what will happen to the billion of Pound sent to Ukraine. Long before the conflict in Eastern Europe started, Ukraine was swimming in corruption. There is no reason to believe that the same levels of corruption have not been swallowing foreign aid.

Both in the USA, Britain and elsewhere, such state of affairs is being financed with public borrowing. We borrow, borrow and borrow and when things reach crisis point then we talk about cutting down public expenditure that allows the survival of vital services.

The War in Afghanistan lasted about 20 years at an incalculable cost. Will the War in Ukraine go the same way?

 

The events in the USA on September 11th, 2001 were a long way from the date when the War in Afghanistan came to an end.

After the initial interest in the conflict, people simply forgot about it and continued living their lives as usual as if nothing was happening. 

At the end, public interest was renewed and it turned into a subject of national and international debates trying to discern what was actually achieved or not achieved. Soonafterwards, it ceased to be a fashinable subject to talk about. 

Now, we have the conflict in Ukraine, a conflict that actually started several years ago, before open hostilities. The question that arises is if the conflict in Ukraine will not go on very much like the War in Afghanistan. Is there a real interest to put an end to the conflict or is there an agenda to keep it going indefinitely? The USA has invested more than 64 billion US Dollars and like it happened in both Iraq and in Afghanistan, untraceable amounts of money went somewhere, but there is little accountability. The same happens with war materials that some say are already in the hands of international gangs. We must remember what happened to weaponry and war materials in Afghanistan and before that in Nicaragua. The Contras and drugtrafficking cartels were in business exchanging weapons for drugs that ended up being sold in the USA.

With the veil of secrecy that accompanies any war, money laundering, arms trafficking and illegal earnings are part of the deal because everything becomes an issue of National Security.