Royal Household: Harry and Meghan

Royal Household: Harry and Meghan

In the 1930, Prince Edward could not marry Wallis Simpson because she was a divorcee. After that, Princess Margaret was not allowed to marry the man she very much loved - an ace of the Royal Air Force who served with distinction because his wife had left him (he became a divorcee due to no fault of his own). 

These were the precedents, but year later Prince Charles who had been a lover of Camila Parker Bowles was allowed to marry Camila Parker Bowles and suddenly divorce was no longer an issue. 

There had not been an issue either when it came to public morality that the Lord Mountbatten was married and slept with young boys while his wife slept around with men including foreign dignataries. 

But somehow in the eyes of the mandarins of mass media Harry and Meghan have committed a mortal sin by wanting to live their own lives in their own way. They are poisoning the minds of members of the public in the same way that they killed Princess Diana - Harry's mother.  They are at it again. The prostitutes that like to call themselves Defenders of Free Speech are no better than an organised Mafia making an awful amount of money by means of fabricated scandals.

Ursula von der Leyen: Desperate trip to London.

Ursula von der Leyen: Desperate trip to London

Ursula von der Leyen (aka Angela Merkel) is very much against the wall. She barely managed to win the 2017 Federal Election. She desperately tried to form a coalition with FPD and Grünen. She failed. She ended up agreeing a coalition of last resort with SPD that didn't want a coalition with her after losing support.

By the same time, CDU/CSU lost in Brandenburg, Bavaria, Saxony and Hesse and it was revealed that CDU representatives were working together with AfD at local level.

As if this wasn't enough, she had to resign the leadership of CDU to persuade her how political party to allow her to continue. Although on the surface this is about the relationship between EU and UK, it is in fact about the political survival of Angela Merkel now that SPO's newly elected leaders are asking for more concessions at a time when Germany is being forced to increase contributions to EU.

Germany desperately needs a deal to try and soften the blow of Brexit on the German economy. Ursula von der Leyen was in fact appointed by Angela Merkel as she was the only candidate on the ballot for President of the EU Commission in a battle of wills between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. The outome of the British General Election only serve to confirm German fears. It must be noted that after the German Federal Election, AfD is represented in the Bundestag and in every single of the 16 state parliaments in Germany. This is a crucial moment for Germany.

Ursula von der Leyen is playing for Angela Merkel using the EU as a shield to delay Brexit.

2019 Iran/USA: Nothing new, but merely the historical consequence

2019 Iran/USA: Nothing new but the historical consequence

Qasem Soleimaini 

The conflict between Iran and the USA started a long time ago. In 1953 there was a coup d'état in Iran organized by the United States and the United Kingdom. Democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh was deposed and the USA and the UK supported Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as monarchical ruler of Iran.

USA and UK wanted a puppet that they could control to manage Iranian mineral resources. The Shah as Reza Pahlavi was known lasted until 1979 when an Islamic Revolution deposed the Western puppet and replaced him with a theocratical regime that has runned Iran until this day.

The Iranian Revolution happened during Jimmy Carter's Presidency and it was at that time that the revolutionaries took over the US Embassy in Teheran and kept hostages and this remarkably determined the outcome of the US Presidential Election of 1980. The Democrats led by Jimmy Carter were literally wiped out. Jimmy Carter got 49 electoral votes while his Republican counterpart Ronald Reagan got 489. It was a disaster for the Democratic Party and something they never forgot. Having lost control of Iran, the USA embarked in a series of foreign politicies that included supporting Saddam Hussein and the use of chemical warfare against Iran by Saddam Hussein.

But sooner than later, the US Establishment decided to get rid of Saddam Hussein after it became clear that they could no longer control Saddam Hussein. The invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was landmark. Under a mandate of the Organisation of the United Nations, a military operation was launched and ultimately served to contraint Iraq within its borders but also imposed restriction zones that Saddam Hussein and his regime couldn't possibly tolerate. As sooner as Iraqi forces were forced to withdraw from Kuwait the planning started to get rid of Saddam Hussein. This effectively happened in another military operation without an UN mandate. American and British forces dismantled the power structure in Iraq that spiralled out of control. The state of disarray led to the rise of Islamic State that was effectively created by the power vacuum that was the direct consequence of the invasion of 2003.

With the disappearance of Iraq as buffer zone, other regional powers strived to feel up the space that Iraq no longer commanded. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran are now the new players and most of the conflicts in the region were the direct consequence of US and UK military actions. The state of imbalance affected Africa Middle East and Asia Minor.

With every additional US/UK intervention, the situation was made worse and when US and UK proved unable to take control then conflicts became the norm. To sum up, US belligerance against Iran started a long time ago when US and UK acting together destroyed a democratic opening in Iran and replaced it with a monarchical puppet that couldn't last long. Sunni and Shia are coming together and this has significant implications with regards to any controlling attempt by Western powers. We are not in the 1800s. We are not in the 1900s. The world has changed. The bipolarity of the 1950s has been replaced with a multipolarity. Former colonies are no longer willing to be treated as colonies or puppet states. The new cowboys haven't been able to understand that the new indians are not just more numerous but also better prepared and that in the present context the new cowboys could end like General Custer.

 

In politics, the issue is to have candidates that can perform

In politics, the issue is to have candidates that can perform

A politician is a salesman that sells ideas and strive to meet up expectations. Voters look at the salesman. Is he a credible salesman? They listen to what that the salesman says and ponder about how likely the salesman is to deliver what he promises to deliver. They might like or dislike what is on offer. If they dislike what is on offer, they might go against it and if they like what is on offer they might even disregard their first impression about the salesman (or salewoman).

The Liberal Democrats had been all over the place and in the spate of a few years have had more leaders that there were General Elections. Correct me if I forget all the names. After Paddy Ashdown came Charles Kennedy, Sir Menzies Campbell, Vince Cable, Nick Clegg, Tim Farron, Sir Vince Cable, Jo Swinson, Baroness Sal Brighton, Sir Ed Davey, and Mark Pack? For the duration of one Parliament they were in power in coalition with the Conservatives under David Cameron.

The Liberal Democrats - with a few exceptions - defined themselves as pro-EU. After the 2016 Referendum, the made themselves one of the stumbling blocks in the quest for Brexit. They desperately pursued the possibility of a Second Referendum with the hope of keeping Britain in the European Union. When that failed to cristalize, they went for a General Election that they strongly believed would give them what they wanted but from the start the struggle to reach an agreement with other political forces to overcome party political differences. They divided the Remain Camp because they couldn't possibly reach an agreement with Jeremy Corbyn. The fact that several Labour MPs and several Conservative MPs decided to join them was not an incentive to reach such agreement. She went as a far as saying that she would go against Article 50 and de-facto keep Britain in the European Union despite the outcome of the 2016 Referendum on EU Membership. This last act signalled the beginning of the end for Jo Swinson's leadership. The British Electorate could possibly stomach the idea of a Second Referendum. They couldn't possibly support somebody that talked about getting rid of the Article 50 straight away.

The issue for Scottish voters - Jo Swinson was at the time a Scottish MP - was to decide between an SNP that openly stood for Remain and also for Scottish Independence and a Liberal Democrat MP that stood for Remain but against Scottish Independence. The political fate of Jo Swinson was sealed. She lost her seat and as a direct consequence of losing her seat she could not continue as Lib Dem leader.

Voters didn't like the saleswoman, didn't believe that the saleswoman could deliver what she was offering and many even didn't like what she was offering. In the process, every single Labour MP and every single Conservative MP that defected to Lib Dems lost their seats. Even the possibility of a hang Parliament eluded them. 

The agony for both Lib Dems and Labour is self-evident. For Labour, as some Labour representatives have publicly stated, the aim is to restore public faith. The party is a divided as before. It is difficult to find a unity candidate. London set itself apart from the rest of the Labour movement when Labour voters outside London decided that the only possible choice was to support the Conservative Party.

To say that the Labour Party has a mountain to climb would be a historic understatement. As long as whoever replaces Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a representative of the Jeremy Corbyn lobby, the Labour Party will struggle to recover.

Now, all eyes look towards the 2020 May Elections and in particular towards the London Mayoral Election in which an opponent of Jeremy Corbyn - Sadiq Khan - is likely to win a second mandate. Given the absence of candidates visibly able to unseat Sadiq Khan, the London Mayoral Election could serve to unite a very divided Labour Party.

Do you see Sadiq Khan as potential Labour Party leader? Nobody mentions Andy Burnham - present Mayor of Greater Manchester. Former Member of Parliament and former Cabinet Minister and a likeable individual far detached from Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and one of the centre-left politicians born in Liverpool - a northerner. If the Labour Party has any hope of bringing back traditional labour voters into the fold, choosing a man from Liverpool with proven political record would not be a bad choice. Sadiq Kahn would appeal to London. Andy Burham would appeal to the country as a whole. 

Whoever is chosen now as leader could end up being the leader of a party forever in opposition but if the struggle ends up being a war between London and the rest of the country the Labour Party will have to decide between being a political party for London or being a political party for Britain. 

 

Sadiq Khan: London Mayoral Election 2020

Sadiq Khan: London Mayoral Election 2020

Despite what happened in the rest of the country and in the Labour Party in particular, I don't think there is a natural challenger that could unseat Sadiq Khan as London Mayor. 

Whoever aspires to defeat Sadiq Khan will have to have enough political weight to have any chance of winning against a London Mayor that built his own political profile regardless of the troubles of the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn.

Regardless of his stances on Brexit and his statements on foreign affairs i.e. his war of words with President Donald Trump, I reckon Sadiq Khan could even benefit from his stances and statements because London is a completely different cup of tea when compared to the rest of the United Kingdom.
Who are the other contenders? Well, Shaun Bailey will be standing as Conservative Party Mayoral Candidate. The Liberal Democrats have Siobhan Benita who previously stood in 2012 as Independent. Siän Berry will stand for the Green Party. Sue Black will stand for the Women's Equality Party, Rosalind Readhead would be standing as Independent, and Rory Stewart, former Conservative MP would be standing as Independent Candidate.

Despite the fact that opinion polls indicate that Sadiq Kahn went from 62% down to 44%  (December 2018 until November 2019), none of the contenders seem to have the charisma and the experience Sadiq Khan has. So unless there is a last minute change with a bigger hat being thrown into the ring I reckon the Sadiq Khan's mandate will be extended for another four years. 

Greens and Labour will be fighting for predominance in the London Assembly. As it was stated in a husting in London before the 2019 General Election, the Green Party is a serious challenger and would do well on the London Wide List. The credibility of the Lib Dems was seriusly damaged with the loss of many MPs - including those who defected from the Labour Party and the Conservative Party and their leader Jo Swinson but they could do well enough to get Siobhan Benita elected as London Assembly Member if they play their cards right.

With regards to UKIP and Brexit Party and other political contenders, they were routed or not even stood in December 2019. Therefore, I believe that they wouldn't stand a chance. They would lose not just the election but also all their deposits.

European Union: Poland's troubles are just the beginning.

European Union: Poland troubles are just the beginning

Recent internal elections in SPD in Germany have led to new problems for Angela Merkel. The new leadership of SPD is demanding further concessions that Angela Merkel has dimmed unacceptable and this could mean the end of the ruling coalition. The German Chancellor who is no longer the leader of her own poilitcal party -CDU - knows that additional financial burdens that come on top of having to supply additional monies for the European Union will have a political cost that she cannot afford. 

SPD is making more financial demands, regardless of the fact that SPD lost the 2017 Federal Elections and has lost in every single state election that came afterwards -= Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony and Hesse in which Alternative für Deutschland and Grünen made huge advances. Alternative für Deutschland is the official German Opposition in the Bundestag and commands support in every single one of the sixteen regional parliaments in Germany.

It has been reported that it could take up to a year to approve the European Union budget and German taxpayers are in no mood to increase financial contributions via higher taxes or increased borrowing. If the German coalition falls, Angela Merkel could become the Chancellor in a minority government or even fall from power to be replaced by the present leader of CDU.

This comes as more and more CDU politicians are choosing to work together with Alternative für Deutschland despite threats issued by Angela Merkel herself to deter CDU membrers from effectively joining Alternative für Deutschland at local level. Let's remember that Germany is the driving force within the European Union and that her main partner - France - is facing times of great political uncertainty.

The landslide victory of the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom must have come as a bucket of cold water not just for Germany but for others within the ruling elites of the European Union who are now threatening to refuse to approve the Withdrawal Agreement that they themselves negotiated with the Conservative Government. The mere possibility of a No Deal outcome is what Germany's CDU fears most. They know that Germany will have to face pressures coming not just from the USA that doesn't want EU unfair trade practices but also from an invigorated United Kingdom. Germany sees its position as net expoeter threatened and this means less votes if the German economy falters.

If Poland were to leave the European Union soon to be followed by others, one wonders what could be worse: the political and psychological implications of mone countries leaving the European Union or the financial consequences. Just a few weeks ago, President Macron blocked the accession of Albania and North Macedonia arguing that it would no be advisable to incorporate new countries without implementing urgent reforms before such accession is even contemplated. Adding more countries that will be net receivers of EU funding is a recipe for disaster at a time when the main funders of the European Union are facing troubles of their own.

   

Labour: Choosing Corbyn ally as replacement Leader changes nothing

Labour: Choosing Corbyn ally as replacement Leader changes nothing

The name on the cards to replace Jeremy Corbyn is Rebecca Long Bailey, a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn. If she is effectively the new Leader, little will have changed and it would show that the Labour clique is not willing to accept the outcome of a disastrous General Election. A change of names while maintaining the 'Movement' will certainly condemn the Labour Party to political oblivion.

The failures of the Labour Party leadership were all too visible. While Jeremy Corbyn kept talking about negotiating a new deal and putting it to the vote together with the option to remain was contrasted with the views of the remaining members of the shadow cabinet that clearly said that they would negotiate a new deal but would campaign for remain. To put it mildly, they explicitly said that they would campaign against their own deal.

For thousands upon thousands of Labour Party voters and supporters, the attitudes of Jeremy Corbyn and its shadow cabinet were too much to swallow and they decided to support other political parties and most importantly the Conservative Party to get Brexit done.

But the Labour Party couldn't persuade voters to accept a manifesto based on sheer demagogy and political bribes. The Labour Party couldn't either get rid of the anti-Semitism scandal, scandal made worse by the fact that most of those who came up with expressions of anti-Semitism were Muslim Labour Party members that dominate the Labour Party in many areas across the United Kingdom. The two things go together: anti-Israel attitudes and hatred against Jews in the United Kingdom.

Choosing a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn, tainted by all the aforementioned, is an own goal. But lets not put the car before the horses. While Rebecca Long Bailey is being talked about about a serious contender there are other names on the cards.