Macron seizes opportunity to divert attention from France´s serious internal issues

 

It does not go amiss that having made several decisions that led to absolute political chaos in France and to the inability of passing a budget without the threat of having Prime Ministers forced to resign, President Macron is now using the present issues about Ukraine as an opportunity to unite France behind him. For this General Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri, Ukraine is his Islas Malvinas Moment. 

When things go bad at home, nothing better than making people look elsewhere and look for justifications to ask for monies when the European Union has been alerting France that France has surpassed the allowed National Deficit. So, we France have an independent Nuclear Deterrent and we want to use it to protect you. Very interesting since Britain´s nuclear deterrent is neither British nor Independent. France and Germany have decided to start rearming themselves at quick pace and so France is planning to do exactly the same.

The major problem is that that rules about the EURO will have to change and major deficits will have to be allowed at a time when economic uncertainties are undermining national economies. So as Paul Samuelson put it - Butter or Cannons - Macron has decided to go for Cannons. Elegant justification to forget about Health, Education and other major areas of public administration. France can still rely on Britain to unload tens of thousands of illegal migrants. But, for how long? Countries like Italy and France itself have decided to get rid of Ukrainian refugees. Hardlines on migration, across the Europen Continent, are rising and rearming Europe has other disadvantages. You can never trust that today´s allies will be real allies and flash political changes can certainly lead to confrontation within the EU itself.

While Rachel Reeves struggles to keep the boat afloat, Keir Starmer is keeping his eyes off the ball

 

The British economy is heading towards the rocks, Rachel Reeves is seeing a financial cushion evaporating, making the three bad options available as a threat.

Regardless of the what the Bank of England does or does not do, investors might have different ideas. Would you put your monies on the Titanic?

So what next? More taxes, more borrowing or more cuts of public services or a combination of the three.

This at a time when the Prime Minister might be talking about forcefully increasing expenditure in defense. Well, if the theoretical conflict is imminent, time ran out a long time ago. What is the reality of British military strength? A few nuclear bombs that Britain cannot use for fear of retaliation against all British cities. When it comes to conventional warfare, Britain is absolutely naked.  

EURO ERM New Chapter with both France and Germany's budget deficits exceeding the limits set up for the EURO

 

The days of the Exchange Rate Mechanism come back to haunt both France and Germany whose budget deficits have gone beyond the limits set up for the EURO. 

We remember both John Major and Norman Lamont making desperate efforst and selling British gold reserves as it there was no tomorrow to try and keep the value of the Pound that was collapsing. 

Now, the French political crisis is also an economic crisis and the fact that from now on there might be no government or a government kept hostage by a fragmented French Assembly says a lot. 

Only in July 2025 could President Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French Assembly and call new Parliamentary Elections. Although on a speech made the day after the vote that defeated the government and marked the end of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister the President promised to stay for the whole duration of his mandate that ends in 2027, doubts remain about what will happen in France until 2027 in terms of real governance. The question is 'who will actually rule France?' The country should not until 2027 be run by decree because of the President's lack of support in the French Assembly. And what does this mean for the European Union?

In January 2025 there should be a vote in the German Parliament to decide the fate of Olaf Scholz, followed by a Federal Election in February 2025. Once again, what happens to German budgets? Rule by decree? Germany represents 24 per cent of the European Union economy.

Both Germany and France need stable governance and the EU itself will be in great difficulty when two major players face such uncertainty.

On January 20th 2024, new challenges to the European Union economy could rise. Who will then be the negotiators. The Axe Berlin/Paris is in trouble.  

Michel Barnier on the way out? What next for France?

 

Michel Barnier was chosen as Prime Minister with a Parliament in which there is no Constitutional Majority to choose a Prime Minister.

Emannuel Macron appointed Michel Barnier as a pair of safe hands to guide France at a difficult time after Parliamentary Elections that generated more chaos than order.

Now, Michel Barnier could be outsted in a vote of confidence. After the Parliamentary Elections, the French government became hostage of adverse circumstances.

The next Presidential Election is due to take place in 2027 or wherever the French President resigns. If Emmanuel Macron were to resign, he could not stand again as Presidential Candidate. Such are the rules. Could the rules be broken to allow Emmanuel Macron to take part in yet another Presidential Election? While this is happening in France, in Germany Olaf Scholz faces a vote of confidence in January 2025 and possible Federal Elections in February 2025.

The two major players of the European Union are on the brink of a major upheaval in European politics and geopolitics. 

In a few months time, the warmongers of today will be history

Whether it is USA, Britain, Germany, France, et cetera, one thing is certain: key warmongers of today will not be around for long.

How much time has Biden left? How much time has Rishi Sunak left? How much time Scholz and Macron have left?

Look at America. What is happening in Latin America? There was a time when in Uruguay the Colorado Party has an almost completely monopoly of power. Then came the Partido National, the other Conservative Party of Uruguay. What happened next? The Frente Amplio (Broad Front) took the reins of power and the conservative parties of Uruguay could only come back as a coalition. 

What is happening in Argentina, in Chile, in Brazil, even in Bolivia? The old certainties have disappeared. The Partido Justicialista arrived completely divided in the October round of elections to select the new Argentinian Parliament - with barely 30 something of support compared to a completely political grouping that also got 30 something. Now, we wait for the second round of elections to see who is elected President of Argentina and on what basis. If Milei manages to attract the attention of younger generations chances are that he could be the winner replacing both Justicialistas and Radicales. But as political commentators remarked during the first round of elections, the issue is fundamentally not who is in charge but what can whoever is in charge do to revert a 134% rate of inflation.

Strategies to scare people and deter them from supporting alternative political forces are failing to do the job. People don't want continuity. They want positive changes. They are tired of a bit of the same. In Germany of all places the idea of banning a political force that already represents more than twenty per cent of the electors is a sign of desperation. Olaf Scholz knows that he is walking on a high rope with failing political partners. The SPD tried to distance itself from CDU/CSU as coalition member precisely because it was losing support. FPD is losing support and SPD itself is losing support. So how will the German coalition last? In spite of what politicians and mass media say, how feasible is a coalition of Alternative für Deutschland and other conservative groups. In the days of Angela Merkel, local CDU representatives were comfortable enough to work together with Alternative für Deutschland.

France is a bit of a puzzle. Macron is unpopular, but fears about the rise of Rassemblement National motivated some people to support what they did not like. Marine Le Pen did the right thing by choosing to have different young leaders to attract younger generations of voters.

Both in Germany and in France, political parties are exploiting what is happening in Palestine. Never mind what is happening in Palestine if what happens in Palestine helps them promote a certain narrative seeking to advance Nationalism in Germany and in France. Are you really and truly German? Are you really and truly French? Politics moves towards identity politics. You belong or you don't belong. You are part of the national culture or you are not part of the national culture. Multiculturalism is seen as a failure and Identity politics is no friend of Multiculturalism.

In Britain, with differences in political language approach, the message is clear: 'Multiculturalism is becoming a National Security issue' and the Home Secretary - herself a member of an ethnic minority - is investing a lot of political capital going against Multiculturalism. She does not explicitily say it, but the nature of what she is saying is obviously going against Multiculturalism. Other political operators are less shy and strictly say 'that is not British, they are not British'. She is diving the country and Mosques are becoming a target again. Not a target for people like Paul Golding that has dedicated his political career to attack Mulisms. They are becoming a target for the privileged political classes, because the privileged classes are closer to Jewish interests than they are to Muslim interests.

For one reason or another, Identity Politics is being promoted by people who used to say that they stood against Identity Politics. In a reversal of roles, Identity Politics is not been promoted by now defunct political forces like the BNP, the National Front or Britain First. Identity Politics is coming from the very top of British politics. Listen to commentators like Nigel Farage. What is he constantly talking about?

Whatever happens today you must remember that the warmongers of today will shortly be history. Even hawkish scarecrow Mr John Bolton might not be around too long. He criticizes Joe Biden saying that Jo Biden is not aggressive enough. Well, John Bolton was fired by President Trump because John Bolton wanted President Trump to be more aggressive. In retirement, a few cups of lime tea will do John Bolton a lot of good.

 

 

With EU in recession, German coalition wants to deprive German industries of gas to send gas to Ukraine

Since Angela Merkel's disastrous decision to get rid of nuclear power in Germany, Germany became extremely dependent on fossil fuel imports. When the situation in Eastern Europe worsened, Germany had to start reopening coal mines. Major industrial players in Germany alerted the German coalition that they need to have secure energy supplies. Unfortunaly, the coalition led by Olaf Scholz is deaf and intends to send German gas to Ukraine. What is even more astonishing is that countries like Netherlands that have gas stocks were thought to be diverting their own supplies to Germany.

In the midst of recession, diverting gas supplies away from German industries makes a bad situation even worse. If German manufacturing falters, the possibility of job loses, export losses and industrial unrest rises. Although the next Federal Election is still a long way into the future, if the worst happens, the future of the ruling coalition will be in doubt. It was hard for SPD to negotiate a deal that could unite conservatives FDP and Greens. For the German economy, there has been a triple whammy: loss of nuclear energy, higher prices of oil and gas plus exports of gas to other countries.

Germany is the engine of the EU. Will the coalition survive until the next Federal Election. The longer the conflict in Eastern Europe goes on the worse the prospects for the German economy. The axe Berlin/Paris is also going through challenges. President Macron will not be around for another mandate. One word that describes what is happening in France is 'uncertainty'. Who will step in to challenge Rassemblement National? 

This is a tour de force, a game of political survival. As all the weapons sent to Ukraine are being systematically destroyed, the European Union risks being naked because what is being sent is not being replaced. Taxes going up in the midst of recession to pay for the war effort?

Brexit: Then and Now

Brexit: Then and Now

In ten days time, Britain will be on its way to be as it was before entering the Common Market. Will it be like it was before entering the Common Market?

So much has happened in more than 40 years. There has been a demographic revolution and London - its capital city - is completely unrecognizable. The Monarchy itself is unrecognizable. We have had Harry-exit. Diana's boy is now in Canada, without a Royal title. SNP seems to rule Scotland and is threatening to break up the United Kingdom. Let us remember another earthquake that happened in the United Kingdom in the 1920, the partition of Ireland and the creation of two separate entities - the Republic of Ireland in the south and the Province of Northern Ireland in the north. A hundred years later, we are witnessing events that have generated realities that we couldn't possibly have imagined thirty years ago.

But when it comes to surprising changes, Britain is not alone. The European Continent is on the move and significant political developments are taking place. 

Merkel, Medvedev, Schroeder

Germany is also unrecognizable. CDU/CSU is faltering and Alternative für Deutchland and Grünen are rising stars. In France, Emannuel Macron - the opportunity candidate that rose to power as to prevent National Front (Now National Rally) from winning the French Presidential Election is facing war as discontent rises. As the Socialists were on the way out, the French Centre Right faced the unthinkable and had to create a fantasy on the back of a massive propaganda effort.

Brexit is not the main issue, Europe is facing. Much more serious developments are on the way. Unfortunately, and perhaps in a premeditated manner, the mass media have their own agenda and they don't report about certain events to the point that when something dramatic happens it seems to have come from nowhere.

European Union: Poland's troubles are just the beginning.

European Union: Poland troubles are just the beginning

Recent internal elections in SPD in Germany have led to new problems for Angela Merkel. The new leadership of SPD is demanding further concessions that Angela Merkel has dimmed unacceptable and this could mean the end of the ruling coalition. The German Chancellor who is no longer the leader of her own poilitcal party -CDU - knows that additional financial burdens that come on top of having to supply additional monies for the European Union will have a political cost that she cannot afford. 

SPD is making more financial demands, regardless of the fact that SPD lost the 2017 Federal Elections and has lost in every single state election that came afterwards -= Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony and Hesse in which Alternative für Deutschland and Grünen made huge advances. Alternative für Deutschland is the official German Opposition in the Bundestag and commands support in every single one of the sixteen regional parliaments in Germany.

It has been reported that it could take up to a year to approve the European Union budget and German taxpayers are in no mood to increase financial contributions via higher taxes or increased borrowing. If the German coalition falls, Angela Merkel could become the Chancellor in a minority government or even fall from power to be replaced by the present leader of CDU.

This comes as more and more CDU politicians are choosing to work together with Alternative für Deutschland despite threats issued by Angela Merkel herself to deter CDU membrers from effectively joining Alternative für Deutschland at local level. Let's remember that Germany is the driving force within the European Union and that her main partner - France - is facing times of great political uncertainty.

The landslide victory of the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom must have come as a bucket of cold water not just for Germany but for others within the ruling elites of the European Union who are now threatening to refuse to approve the Withdrawal Agreement that they themselves negotiated with the Conservative Government. The mere possibility of a No Deal outcome is what Germany's CDU fears most. They know that Germany will have to face pressures coming not just from the USA that doesn't want EU unfair trade practices but also from an invigorated United Kingdom. Germany sees its position as net expoeter threatened and this means less votes if the German economy falters.

If Poland were to leave the European Union soon to be followed by others, one wonders what could be worse: the political and psychological implications of mone countries leaving the European Union or the financial consequences. Just a few weeks ago, President Macron blocked the accession of Albania and North Macedonia arguing that it would no be advisable to incorporate new countries without implementing urgent reforms before such accession is even contemplated. Adding more countries that will be net receivers of EU funding is a recipe for disaster at a time when the main funders of the European Union are facing troubles of their own.

   

BBC's pitfalls and Rory Stewart's obstinacy talking about putting Theresa May's Deal to the vote yet again

BBC's pitfalls and Rory Stewart's obstinacy talking about putting Theresa May's Deal to the vote yet again

Lack of due diligence led the BBC into a trap of its own making. Trying to question Boris Johnson about comments he made long before he became a leadership contender, the BBC invited an Imam to talk about Islamophobia only to find out hours later that the said Iman that has now been expelled by his Mosque and by the school where he was Deputy Headmaster had been writing anti-Semitic comments and derogatory comments about women. Not a happy time for the BBC that was recently put on the spot for getting rid of free TV Licenses for over 75s and for the amounts paid to certain individuals, salaries paid with the income produced by TV Licenses.

Rory Stewart made a fundamental gaffe. The foundation of his argument to become Prime Minister was the idea of trying to push through the House of Commons the very same deal negotiated by Theresa May that was rejected by the House of Commons three times. In the first round he got 19 votes and manage to increase his support to 37 votes, but right after the BBC debate his support simply collapsed losing 10 votes of the 37 he had.

Tomorrow, there be will another round and there would be additional rounds until two candidates are left with the most votes. A series of hustings will take place across the country in which members of the Conservative Party will listen and then vote to decide who is going to be the next British Prime Minister. But, as Churchill stated, "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." 

The newly elected Conservative Prime Minister will have to deal with the same fragmented Parliament and as the October 31, 2019 deadline approaches tensions will rise even more. With the EU in a state of disarray, with the Labour Party extremely divided, nobody is the in mood for negotiations. The choice is still a binary option.

Until Brexit is completed, there will be no deal

Until Brexit is completed, there will be no deal

A quick look at what is happening in the main EU countries is more than enough to understand that the EU is in no position to negotiate anything. If anything, the EU has to devote all its energies to prevent a meltdown that would lead to the extinction of the EU.

In France, President Macron doesn't seem to be getting things done. It looks like a growing crisis that threaten the very foundation of democracy in France. Showering French citizens with tear gas and water cannons, and engaged in unwarranted acts of violence, Police forces that follow President Macron's orders are turning France into a battlefield. 

In Germany, the sheer idea of having to go cap in hand to ask German taxpayers for more money to subsidise failing economies is a sobering thought for ailing Angela Merkel that knows that she is being watched from inside and from outside the CDU/CSU. She is no longer leader of the ruling coalition very much like Theresa May is no longer leader of the Conservative Party and is very much yesterday's Chancellor.

Events in Austria, Poland, Hungary, Italy and elsewhere are not reassuring either. In Spain, recently elected Members of the European Parliament are not being allowed to join the European Parliament because of the struggle for independence in Catalonia. 

Contenders in the leadership election in the Conservative Party or those in opposition can talk about a deal but it is a deal that no longer exists. It was killed by Parliament and led to the downfall of Theresa May. Most of the world deals with WTO terms and has been doing so for a very long time. The issue is the survival of a protectionist club called European Union (before European Community, earlier Common Market) that almost single-handed led to a debacle across the Developing World when over-production and subsidies caused a dramatic fall of agricultural prices and the creation of massive foreign debt in countries that very much depend on agriculture to make ends meet.

Delivering Brexit is a sine qua non for the Conservative Party. They know that they either deliver Brexit or are replaced by the Brexit Party under a Marxist Prime Minister. This has enormous implications for Britain and for international equilibrium. Whatever is left of the |Special Relationship could come to an end. This is not just the crisis regarding Huawei. This is Huawei and everything else including Britain's membership of NATO.

Britain should seek to preserve the Conservative government by getting Brexit done as a way to prevent a major geopolitical catastrophe.

Rory Stewart publicly declares that he would usher the destruction of the Conservative Party

Rory Stewart publicly declares that he would usher the destruction of the Conservative Party

Rory Stewart

Rory Stewart, like Philip Hammond, is the voice of surrender to the European Union and he has publicly stated - like Philip Hammond - that he is willing to destroy the Conservative Party in the process if he doesn't get things his way.

Philip Hammond

Rory Stewart stated unequivocally to destroy Boris Johnson, the man that represents real Brexit and he is without a shadow of a doubt the spearhead of the Remainers in the Conservative Party.

Rory Stewart will be voicing the fears spread by some in the Labour Party, in the Lib Dem Party and in other political organisations including the Conservative Party that led to the downfall of Theresa May. Next week, we will see a regrouping of contenders in the leadership contest and both camps in the Conservative Party will be struggling for control. Remainers will be plotting against Boris Johnson that they see as the embodiment of Leave.

In the meantime, the Brexit Party that came second in the Peterborough By-Election effectively relegated the Conservative Party in the local elections and in the European Parliament Elections is now sending a clear message to the Conservative Party: "Get Brexit done or face political catastrophe." The Conservative Party of 1997 lost the election mainly because of internal divisions. The Conservative Party lost the local elections and the European Parliament Elections of 2019 and was relegated to third place in Peterborough. In this context, Rory Stewart could be seen as a political suicide not just for Rory Stewart but a political suicide for the Conservative Party if people like Rory Stewart get their way.

Emmanuel Macron's threats are playing into the hands of those who want to breakaway with a deal or without a deal. Treating Britain like a province of the EU or even a province of France, Macron - much more than other EU mandarins - is weakening the Remain camp factions that cannot even agree with each other as the Remain camp becomes ever more fragmented.

Is this the future of UK/USA relationship?

Is this the future of UK/USA relationship?

Jeremy Corbyn vs Donald Trump

The way things are going, this could be a real possibility. For the Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition to boycott the visit of the President of the United States of America is a very serious matter. Direct attacks like the ones launched by Emily Thornberry against President Trump and none other than the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow is no laughing matter. We are talking about very serious issues involved the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the emphasis on foreign policy.

This is not merely an issue of liking or not liking President Donald Trump. This is about the British Nuclear Deterrent and the whole Defence Strategy in Europe. One has to think that Emmanuel Macron's rush to lead the way towards the establishment of EU Armed Forces and an Independent EU Foreign Policy has a lot to do with the concerns generated by Jeremy Corbyn's ideological stances.

While the attention is focused on Brexit, President Trump's visit to the United Kingdom is undoubtedly about reassurances regarding Britain's position facing the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. It is expected that a new Conservative Prime Minister will be in place by mid-year and a clear cut solution will be found to prevent the rise of Jeremy Corbyn. 

The Labour Party's Leadership is again under fire and the rise of both the Lib Dems on the Remain side and of the Brexit Party on the Leave side must have given some hope to the American Administration. President Trump has used warm words to describe his rapport with Boris Johnson as a potential Prime Minister and with Nigel Farage as Leader of the Brexit Party. 

Alastair Campbell has expressed the view that without a clear definition the Labour Party would be doomed in a General Election. Much has been said about Chancellor Philip Hammond talking about bringing down the Conservative government in case of No Deal but do those oppose to Jeremy Corbyn really want the Labour Party to win knowing that Jeremy Corbyn would be the next Primer Minister.

A very advantageous Trade Agreement between the USA and Britain would favour a No Deal option and could prevent the rise of Jeremy Corbyn. A No Confidence Vote against the Conservative government would be a geopolitical disaster. 

June 30 or else?

June 30 or else?

The first deadline was March 29th 2019. Then came two conditional deadlines: April 12th 2019 and May 22nd 2019. Today, the House of Commons voted to establish that June 30th 2019 is the limit and that whatever is negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May has to fit it in a period from today until June 30th 2019.

If the European Union decides tomorrow to have an extension that doesn't go beyond June 30th 2019 then such deadline would be viable. If the European Union decides that it was deadline that is beyond June 30th 2019 then what?

As tensions rise within the Conservative Party several avenues are possible:

1) The potential to force Theresa May's resignation - this would require that Theresa May accepts to resign voluntarily for the sake of the Conservative Party or a Vote of No Confidence in the Conservative Government that would lead to the fall of the Conservative Government. At this point, Her Majesty the Queen could decide to call Jeremy Corbyn and asked him to form a new government.

2) Theresa May might call a General Election which in these uncertain times would neither benefit the Conservative Party not the Labour Party and would encourage voters to choose candidates either pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit regardless of any other consideration.

3) A Referendum could take place as a pre-condition for Parliament to accept Theresa May's original deal. In such a Referendum there could be three choices: 1) To accept Theresa May's Deal 2) To reject Theresa May's Deal and go out without a Deal and 3) To cancel Brexit altogether. 

Since neither of the three options are very popular putting the decision in the hands of the Electorate would seem to be the obvious choice but there is a big BUT. If the number of people voting in the Referendum is lower than the number of people voting in the original Referendum the outcome would be seriously undermined. A lower turnout would lead to serious consequences.

Another pending issue is the European Parliament Election. If the deadline chosen goes beyond May 22nd 2019, Britain would take part in the European Parliament Elections that if Britain were to decide to leave would be rendered meaningless. At this point, the European Union could decide to prolong the mandate of present Members of the European Parliament thus altering the date of the European Parliament Elections. This doesn't seem to be a practical solution. Allowing Britain to take part in the said European Parliament Elections wouldn't be a practical solution either. President Macron has expressed his concerns that the European Parliament Elections could be used to get a higher number of anti-EU Members of the European Parliament that could block his plans for closer European Union political integration.

Brexit: Wednesday could prove to be a key day

Brexit: Wednesday could prove to be a key day

As Alice Weidel from Alternative für Deutschland confirmed, Brexit brings home in Germany the realities that the BBC and other mass media have been hiding from the British people: Germany vulnerability to Brexit. 

Germany is the only one country in Western Europe that cannot withstand a protracted financial crisis created by job losses. In an attempt to reduce pollution, Germany has been taking significant decisions to rein it its automotive industry by trying to rely less and less on diesel. As a consequence of it, a crucial branch of German manufacturing has been suffering and thousands of jobs have been lost. Add to this the announcements made by President Donald Trump about wanting a fairer deal when it comes to exporting American made cars to the European Union.

A British withdrawal from the EU and most importantly the disappearance of British funding for the European Union means that German taxpayers would have to be asked for more money to continue funding the EU Project.

Recent electoral gains made by Alternative für Deutschland that is now represented not only in the Bundestag but in every single State Parliament in Germany worries the Establishment that is using every single dirty tactic to counter Alternative für Deutschland's electoral gains.

Alternative für Deutschland cares about political gains but it cares more about the well-being of the German People and this is why Alice Weidel severely criticise the approach of the ruling coalitions of CDU/CSU and SPD when dealing with the United Kingdom. She asked for fairer treatment for the United Kingdom. Britain is Germany's main business partner in Europe.

The Conservative Party is falling apart not just in the House of Commons but also outside the House of Commons. For some time, local party associations in London have been campaign for a London Conservative Party that would break links with Conservative Central Office.

The Labour Party is in no better position. Massive fragmentation has lead to losses of Members of Parliament both in the Conservative Party and in the Labour Party and even the minute Liberal Democrats face the fact of rising discontent regarding Brexit within their own ranks.

The announcement that Theresa May is willing to ask for a longer extension and to get into talks with Jeremy Corbyn doesn't surprise. After attacking the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn both in terms of its political programme and in terms of its approach towards Israel that has been masked as Anti-Semitism, when the battle rages both against May and against Corbyn the two embattled leaders are desperate for an agreement that would save them both from more public hatred and internal divisions.

The announcement that there is an ongoing campaign to replace John Bercow as Speaker of the House of Commons doesn't surprise either. His pronouncement against putting Theresa May's Deal to the vote for a fourth time could mean that John Bercow could be used as sacrificial lamb. If Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn reach an agreement, John Bercow would be an obvious obstacle but there is always the possibility that in agreement with Jeremy Corbyn, Theresa May could disguise her Deal as a new Deal to be able to ask Parliament to vote again.

Having said that, despite the fact that Theresa May could ask for a longer delay such delay couldn't go beyond May 22nd if the intention is to avoid taking part in European Parliament Elections that could be crucial for Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron's plans regarding deeper political, economic and military integration in the European Union.

A General Election and a new Referendum were offered by the European Union as justification for a longer delay and to presumably help process legislation that the British Parliament hasn't had the time to integrate into British Law before the date of formal withdrawal from the European Union.

What will happen when the House of Commons starts proceedings tomorrow? Nobody knows. Could Theresa May's strategy to get a Deal definitely sink the Conservative Cabinet and destroy any sense of unity left in the Conservative Party?

The Conservative Party, after losing its majority in the 2017 General Election, has depended on the DUP to have enough votes to pass legislation in the House of Commons. How many Conservative MPs have resigned? It could be the case that even with the DUP on-board, there are not enough Conservative MPs to pass legislation through Parliament. In America there is what is known as a Lame Duck President. Could we end up with a Lame Duck Prime Minister unable to push legislation in the House of Commons. The next General Election is supposed to take place in 2022. Can the United Kingdom spend more than three years with a Lame Duck Government?

Theresa May; The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History with dramatic repercussions for EU

Theresa May: The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History

As events come to a climax in the House of Commons with the final vote on the Brexit Deal broke out by Prime Minister Theresa May, we keep an eye on what is happening in Germany at the heart of CDU - one of the key components of the ruling German Coalition headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel gave up his place as Leader of CDU and was succeeded by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that is seen as a moderate Leader that came up a winner leaving behind Angela Merkel's archenemy Friedrich Merz.

But in spite of this, it could be the case that Angela Merkel will not last until the end her term as German Chancellor that is conditional to their junior coalition partner the SPD.

When in Germany there is the equivalent of a political tsunami, in France things are getting thicker by the minute. The Gilet Jaune Movement could lead to a state of emergency of even the use of the military against protesters. If this were to happen, it would prove that President Macron on top of being one of the least - if not the least - popular President in the history of France has literally not a leg to stand on.

As Germany and France keep pushing towards forcing EU member countries to accept immigrants or face a heave price by having to subsidise countries that do accept immigrants, the situation in the remaining EU countries is not straightforward. If the Theresa May's deal is rejected by the House of Commons it will also add to the political uncertainty in the European Union piling up financial tensions. Without British money (Britain is the second most important donor to finance the EU Budget), Germany and France would have go cap in hand to ask for more monies to finance the EU budget and pay for flood immigration.

Let us remember that the budget proposed for Italy by the Italian ruling coalition was rejected by the European Union and that Italy is not fit to provide any more funding for the EU. Other countries, including Greece but not exclusively Greece don't have the financial capacity to pay more for the EU Budget either.

In the last election, Angela Merkel that barely managed to gather the votes to form a government was forced to engage in a series of negotiations with FDP and Grünen. When efforts to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen failed, at the last minute she reached an agreement with SPD. What happened next tells the full story. In state elections in Bavaria, both the CSU (associate party of CDU) and SPD were routed in the elections. Then came CDU's turn in Hesse with comparable losses. The natural consequence was that Alternative für Deutschland has now representatives not just in the Bundestag but also in every single State Parliament in Germany. Will a fragile ruling coalition be able to extract more money from German taxpayers without causing another political rift?

At this point in time, all those who want Britain to remain a member of the European Union must ask themselves very serious questions. They need to be thinking very carefully about the kind of the European Union that is coming. Zac Goldsmith - Jewish Conservative MP - spoke very clearly about the political threats in an European Union that is in meltdown.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. For all the talk about a transition period that could go as far as 2020 in some cases or even 2022, or even become an "indefinite transition period", it is impossible to predict the kind of European Union that will be around during such transition period.

For Theresa May the date is December 11th 2019, according to the latest bit of news. But there are rumours about the vote in the House of Commons being postponed to avert a disastrous defeat that could put an end to Theresa May's Premiership leading to massive political conflicts. What will actually happen on December 11th 2019 and soon after December 11th 2019 is everybody's guess but what we have seen and heard is not reassuring.

Zac Goldsmith's stark warning in the House of Commons: Those who deny Brexit will play into the hands of the Far Right

Zac Goldsmith's stark warning in the House of Commons: Those who deny Brexit will play into the hands of the Far Right

As more and more groups with extreme views are discovered in the United Kingdom, it goes without a doubt that should Parliament go against Brexit this would play directly into the hands of the Far Right.

The British Armed Forces are increasingly supporting Far Right groups. As it has come loud and clear after a series of events, British serving soldiers and British veterans support the Far Right and are directly involved in training camps across the United Kingdom and overseas. People don't have military training unless they are willing to kill.

Parliament has lost credibility and going against Brexit could prove to be a fatal blow to Democracy in the United Kingdom. More and more people lost faith in the EU Project that is now heading towards a United States of Europe with its own Armed Forces controlled by German autocrats that are going against the German People.

Attacks against Jews in Germany are rising to the point that a Jewish Authority in Germany called on all Jews to avoid wearing any attire or body ornament that could identify them as Jews.

In France, President Macron - one of the most unpopular Presidents in the history if France if not the least popular - is using increasing levels of violence against protesters. It is a matter of time for the unpopular President to use the Armed Forces against the French People.

The European Union is not the Promised Land those who support the EU Project talk about.

 

The Truth is out: Call for EU Armed Forces 'to fight US, Russia and China'

The Truth is out: Call for EU Armed Forces 'to fight US, Russia and China'

After the statement made by French President Macron came the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel about 'true, real, EU Armed Forces'. What role will NATO play then? President Trump has been demanding and rightly so that all NATO countries pay their fair share in terms of defence expenditure. Now, a country like Germany that pays a lot less than 2% and is regularly suffering shortages managing very badly its own Armed Forces under Chancellor Merkel talking about 'true, real, EU Armed Forces'? Where is the funding going to come from without increasing German expenditure in Defence? And what about the smaller countries, smaller in numbers and smaller in terms of financial resources, how are they going to pay for those 'true, real, EU Armed Forces'?

When you look at the numbers in terms of demographics and resources you will realise that the said 'true, real, EU Armed Forces' are going to run by Germany and France with smaller contributions from other EU countries. With less investment will come less power and this will mean a de-facto concentration of military power in German and French hands with the rest of EU 'doing as they are told'. With economic power and military might, comes total control in Berlin and in Paris. Those under their rule will become not partners on an equal basis but merely colonies, occupied territories.

If any EU country apart from German and France disagree or reject the orders imparted from the centre, will these 'EU Armed Forces' be used to repress national dissent? The EU is travelling along a very dangerous path. The Continent is facing extraordinary challenges. We can extrapolate what happened during the partition of Yugoslavia to see what could happen in Europe as a whole. If Austria, Hungary, Poland, Italy and others refuse to accept immigration policies - for example, will the said countries be forced to accept what they reject not just via EU legal challenges or will military might be used to suppress any resistance?

The way to Hell is paved with good intentions. There is the intention and there is reality. Should such EU Armed Forces be created, who will control them? What mechanisms will be there to protect national interests? In peacetime, EU mandarins are striving to over-rule national resistance. When certain mechanisms are in place, resistance will be futile. Smaller countries will be de-facto colonies. 

Les media l'appellent candidat centriste. Mes amis, voici la vérité.

Les media appellent Emmanuel Macron candidat centriste. Mes amis, voici la vérité. Ils sont en train de vous tromper. Le Parti Socialiste a eu 6.36% au premier tour et ils on utilisé Emmanuel Macron, un socialiste déguisé comme centriste, pour pouvoir qualifier pour le seconde tour. Mais une fois qu'ils arrivent au deuxième tour, la stratégie est évident.













Regardez les résultats du premier tour.

François Macron: Marketing, marketing y más marketing

François Macron y Emmanuel Hollande

El truco es muy sencillo. El Partido Socialista probó ser un desastre y terminó en los últimos lugares pero... cuidado... un candidato Socialista que los medios ahora califican de centro aparentemente sale del Partido Socialista pero con el apoyo de Socialistas pasa a la segunda ronda de las elecciones en Francia.

Gran estrategia de marketing. Saca a un Socialista del Partido Socialista y discípulo de François Hollande y lo presenta como candidato de centro para tratar de concentrar los votos de izquierda y de derecha, un candidato que habla muy poco de sus ideas políticas. Cuanto más neutro, mejor, pensaron los que crearon esta maniobra para engañar a los electores franceses.

Como dijera el aristócrata de Il Gattopardo "algo tiene que cambiar para que todo siga igual" y a esto le llamamos Democracia. Los que se dejen engañar por la maniobra se van a golpear la cabeza contra un muro cuando se den cuenta de lo estúpidos que son por haberse dejado engañar.

Marine Le Pen: Il y a une Culture Française

André Malraux - Ministre des Affaires Culturelles

Marine Le Pen: Il y a une Culture Française.

Il y a une culture française malgré les efforts de certain politiciens de gauche qui prétendent qu'il n'y a pas une culture française.

Regardons une page officielle qui nous raconte comment et pourquoi le Ministère des Affaires Culturelles a été né.

Malgré quelques tentatives vite interrompues durant les régimes précédents, le Ministère des Affaires Culturelles est véritablement né en France avec la Cinquième République. Le General de Gaulle conseille en effect à son Premier Ministre Michel Debré de proposer  un ministère à André Malraux:

"Il vous sera utile de garder Malraux. Taillez pour lui un ministère, par example, un regroupement de services que vous pourrez appeler 'Affaires Culturelles'. Malraux donnera du relief à votre gouvernement."

Malraux accepte. Par cette création, actée le 3 fébrier 1959, d'un ministère de plein exercise, le général envoie un signe fort aux Français à savoir que pour lui le rayonnement mondial de la France doit passer aussi par le rayonnement de la culture.

Le décret fondateur du 24 juillet 1959, rédigé par Malraux lui-même, donne à ce ministère la "mission de rendre accessibles les oeuvres capitales de l'humanité, et d'abord de la France, au plus grand nombre possible de Français, d'assurer la plus vaste audience à notre patrimoine culturel et de favoriser la création de l'art et de l'esprit qui l'enrichisse".

Oui, Monsieur Macron, il y une culture française, une identité française, même si nous trouvons ceux qui veulent l'ignorer, l'effacer, la détruire.