AI: Opportunities and challenges, fears and expectations

 

AI: Opportunities and challenges

Artificial Intelligence is a tool to process information faster and of adapting behaviours. We try to find a proper definition, but it is still early days and as the recent Mid-Term Elections in the USA prove there is more that we do not know and this scares people. Maybe fears about AI are justified and maybe not. Every new technological advance generates reactions, some favourable, some unfavourable. Thomas Alba Edison was told that electricity would not work when they were talking about lighting up a big city. The Wright brothers were told that airplanes could not fly as they were heavier than air. People used to believe that if you sailed too far in a given direction you would fall or be killed by marine monsters.

One of the challenges of AI is to have enough electricity to power up big concentrations of computers and servers that make AI possible. There were times when locomotives were powered with steam engines fed with vast amount of coal. Later on other kind of fuel were used and we had locomotives that left behind steam technology and became faster and more efficient. I have a feeling that sooner than later we are going to find technologies that will provide the energy needed to run AI centres with cheaper costs and even transform AI centres so that less energy is needed.

We follow the evolution of computers from computers that used to occupy a big room, given their size and despite limite power to process information. We now pack vast amounts of technology inside a wristwatch. You do not need to turn a lever to activate your telephone. In fact, you carry your telephone inside your pocket and this machine will allow you to make calls, send texts and images, explore the Internet, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

But I guess that some traits of human nature are still with us. We are afraid when we do not know enough. Paradoxically, we do not know nearly enough about how things that we have become accustomed to on daily basis are made. We simply become accustomed to machines that become part of our daily routine and suffer a lot when we do not have access to machines. Many of us cannot survive without our televisions and telephones, cars, fridges, freezers, computers and laptors and if ever they malfunction we become depressed, anxious, worried and angry. Look, we need to get to the airport pretty quickly because otherwise we are going to miss the flight. Can you call John and find out if he managed to make the reservations and ask him to tell us if he is going to be waiting for us?

We are so used to technology that we even use it without thinking about all it took to make it real. Should AI be any different?

Now, surveys indicate that about 70 or so percent of voters have concerns about AI and AI share prices fell dramatically as soon as the outcome of the Mid-Term Elections in the USA was known. Why? Because of fear? 

Fear is a human reaction and many people might not even suspect that they have been using AI without even noticing. 

 

USA: They came and went, then came the calebrations in one side and bitterness on the other. Now, Americans must prepare themselves for the trenches of economics.

Red, Blue or Grey?

Before the Mid-Term Elections, more than once, even with majority in both houses, President Trump did not find getting budgets threw was an easy task. More than once, and for several months, the Federal Budget could not be passed and paying salaries of Federal employees and spending in other areas of the Federal Budget was not a very straightforward thing to do.

As results of these Mide-Term Elections were being published, President Trump or those representing President Trump published a red image with one word on it: Veto.

So now there is another war. Not in Ukraine, not in the Gulf, but in the USA. A Democrat controlled Congress will try to enact legislation that in certain cases, or in all cases, will get a Presidential Veto. So the next two years, USA will be a battlefield, while prices will keep rising and the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep putting the basic interest rate up, and up and up. So there is the certain risk that American debt will spiral faster and faster out of control and that the exodus of foreign investors will accelerate. 

Public debt bonds? France is already against the wall and unable to pass a new budget because of the lack of a political majority in the French Assembly. In Britain, the Bank of England put up the basic interest rate and there is the prospect of raising the basic interest rate even further. So, USA is next with China unloading American bonds in the open market.

In a few months time, Democrat success might feel, look and sound like a Phyrric victory. The situation in the Gulf is not going away and China is coming in as Middle East and Asia Minor become the natural choice for a country that needs vast amount of energy. As the USA struggles with politics and economics, this is a perfect time for China to expand. Voters, according to published surveys, voted because of the economy and if the economy does not get better, promises made by Democrats will not be delivered and peoples´moods might change again.

 

President Trump is just coming to the end of the first period of his second mandate and questions rise about what comes next

It feel that it was only yesterday that we were watching elections in the USA, going into the early hours,  getting to know all the results of the voting journey, getting to know who were going to be the elected representatives - and by representatives I do not mean just the members of the House of Representatives, but all elected officials.

A lot has happened since then and only two years after those elections we live in a completely different world. Without a shadow of a doubt, looking at the history of the world, taking into account all that happened before, for many reasons, this has been a remarkable Presidency. There will be good reasons and there will be bad reasons, given your individual views. I do not think that anybody knew beforehand the sort of realities that we would be facing today.

Now, once again, in a few days time, the world will dramatically change. We do not know the outcome of the Mid-Term elections in the USA. We are once again speculating that for these reasons or for other reasons, the outcome would be this or the outcome would be that.

I am one of those that will be watching what happens on November 8th, 2026. I reckon that many people across the world will be watching these elections and thinking about how their lives will be affected by these elections. Having watched many elections, I reckon that not even those standing as candidates will know what comes next.

In the meantime, I will be watching also other elections. Europe faces now and in the near future very important decision journeys. Latin America and to name one set of elections, Brazil will be deciding before American voters if it wants to give Lula da Silva another Presidential Mandate or if it wants to give Flavio Bolsonaro his first Presidential Mandate. Despite the fact that many of us have become more skeptical regarding democratic processes, nevertheless, we feel that democratic processes do matter.

Despite the fact that many of us face an uphill struggle, we still want to believe that there is hope, that positive solutions are on the way.

Undoubtedly, there will be new faces and perhaps those we see as political heirs will not be political heirs and new faces and perhaps new agendas will arrive.  

USA MId-Term elections and outcomes for the rest of the world

 USA Mid-Term Elections are not just fundamental for the USA, but for the entire world.

There was never before a time so crucial in terms of the consequences of a set of elections in one particular country. November 8th 2026 is the date when the totality of the seats in the House of Representatives and one third of the seats in the Senate will be up for election. Even before the elections ever takes place, there are already consequences. 

A deal between the USA and the Russian Federation regarding diesel exports from Russian Federation to USA is basically about lowering the price of diesel in the USA as USA customers are increasingly bothered by rising oil and gas prices created by two main conflicts: Ukraine and the Gulf War against Iran.

Angry customers would not be willing to support a Republican Party headed by President Trump. But this is also about mixed messages. Not all Americans see the actions of President Trump as wise when it comes to Ukraine, when it comes to an unprovoked war against Iran and when it comes to many other issues. Many commentators tells us that the United States of America is a very polarized, divided country at many levels. "Making America Great" has been interpreted as great for some and bad for others.

Relationships with countries that appeared to be particularly close to the USA have suffered a great deal and the bond of trust has been broken. Perhaps the EU and NATO countries are not very happy with the way United States of America is conducting itself. Tariffs, embargoes, threats, lecturing, and conflicting international agendas do not help. What will be the most important deal breaker? What will be the major concerns of the American electorate?

While we await the outcome of these elections that will determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, we look at the potential consequences for the executive branch. Will President Trump have a majority in the Senate and in the House of Representatives or will he be bound to agree with Congress on one policy at a time if the Republican Party loses one or the two houses? How will the outcome of these elections affect American Foreign Policy? Democrats would only need to win 3 more seats in the Senate to take control of the Senate. If President Trump becomes a de-facto Lame Duck President, will he be more or less beligerant?

Many people seem to think that once President Trump comes to the end of his second period as President, a Republican successor will win the next Presidential Elections, but then there is huge question mark about who will be the next Presidential Candidate. Can we safely assume who will be the next Presidential Candidate? Can we safely assume that whoever it is will be the next American President? With this in mind, there are far too many uncertainties regarding the role of the USA after November 2026 and this for starters.

In the meantime, new elections in other countries linked to the USA are on the horizon and such elections could change the dynamics of international relations. Will the world before President Trump and after President Trump be the same or similar? When we thought that COVID had dramatic consequences, here came another series of events that have destabilized the world even more.

International Law and Geopolitical realities: Is there International Law?

When Justice is closely linked to particular agendas that have little to do with Justice, we get very much the law of the jungle in which whoever can do will do as he or she sees fit. What we have seen in recent years has little to do with any kind of justice. In fact, it is the recognition that Might is Right. 

When we witness the implementation of Might is Right, then we have to be preperred for a violent backlash. Not even the assumption of "My power comes directly from God" could save mighty from a catastrophic downfall. Charles I´s came to an end in Central London. The Frech Revolution brought down the French Monarchy. Ceaucescu and his wife did not last long after the events in Romania. And so has the fate of so many more powerful men been. 

Today, MI5 talks about the sudden rise of the threats of terrorism. Well, there is a reason for that. Looking at what has been happening in the United Kingdom for decades, at the impunity in the implementation of ethnic cleansing by allowing hundreds of thousands to flock into the United Kingdom with total disregard, with total contempt, one can understand that somebody somewhere is going to be extremely angry and when anger goes beyond what is bearable then people will react.

Not talking about the issues, trying to brush things under the carpet, you will have to have a carpet big enough, large enough, to hide what is now common knowledge. The mess has become an everyday occurrence in peoples´lives. They no longer need to be told about it. They experience it themselves. 

People see genocide. People see mass murder. People see violent crimes unpunished or even promoted. Geopolitical realities are now inextricably linked to national realities. Tolerance is no more. Mercy is no more. Humanity is no more.

Environmental Concerns and Energy: it is like dealing with two different worlds

 

While most people agree that pure air and protected ecosystems and other aspects of looking after the environment are fundamentally important, perhaps few manage to understand the size of the challenges ahead and come up with totally unrealistic solutions.

Just one set of problems linked to diesel supplies and everything appears to come to a halt. While is diesel so fundamentally important? Transport comes to mind. Food production comes to mind. Energy production comes to mind. And diesel is not going to be replaced any time soon.

When European countries get together to talk about emergency diesel supplies, we know that diesel is not going to be substituted with nuclear energy, solar energy, hydroelectric energy, wind power and so forth to meet the needs that we have got right now and it might take decades before that could happen when and if we have got alternative sources of energy, powerful enough and reliable enough.

As if this was not enough, there are more than enough demographic and geographic challenges right in front of us, right now. The new Gulf War made clear that we need fertilisers to feed billions of peoples. Fertilizers do not come from alternative energy sources. They are chemical products made with oil. So talking about replacing fossiel fuels means talking about replacing fertilizers and fossil fuels are linked with many bi-products, including substances and equipment used in healthcare. The now humble aspirin plays a vital role to prevent strokes and heartattacks and aspirin comes from.... oil.

We need environmentalists to be much better informed about what we are dealing with and to stop being ideological. We need a lot more realism and pragmatism. Learn about numbers and uses. Learn about what is doable and what is not doable. Oversimplification can turn people off and is turning people. Can we collectively do better? Of course we can. And we collectively could do a lot better if we are aware of all the realities that we have to deal with. No ifs, not buts.

Will Britain go back into the EU? National and Geopolitical issues involved

 

Will Britain go back into the EU without British veto?

At this point in time, a returning Britain could be in a much worse position than before. No veto, no rebate and the threat of majority vote to replace unanimity vote regarding major decisions.

The unassailable City of London will be forced to see Frankfurt as a threat. Fiscal discipline, very much as it happens when the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) was around could put Britain in a financial straightjacket. And what would happen to the Bank of England as an independent body?

We would go back to a system that prevented states from subsidizing companies. But there is a lot more going on.

There are fundamental issues to consider. Devolution, Good Friday Agreement, legislation that will limit the capacity of regional and national parliaments to issue legislation that could contravene measures and legislation adopted by the European Union.

And unavoidably, Britain would have to consider the independence of its Armed Forces and immigration policies.

The number and complexity of issues is so vast that it is difficult to even enumerate them in a very brief article.

The subject resurged when Andy Burnham stated that "Britain could go all the way". From a legal standpoint, would another Referendum be needed? The Labour Prime Minister could state that since the Labour Party has such big majority then Parliament will decide. North of the border in Scotland, the SNP has always been about rejoining EU. In Wales, will Plaid Cymru be against it? In England, Labour, Lib Dems and Green might be all for it.

This leaves parts of the Conservative Party, Reform and Restore against rejoining EU. UKIP, Brexit Party, then Reform and Restore and so forth, always stood on the fringes and rejoining EU would be a way to neutralize the likes of Reform and Restore. Without a Referendum, Reform, Restore and segments of the Conservative Party would have to rely on MPs.

Expected to be pro-Rejoin:

Labour 403, Liberal Democrat 71, Green Party 5, SNP 5, Plaid Cymru 4 = 488

Expected to be pro-Region:

We do not know how many of the 118 Conservatives will oppose pro-Rejoin. Reform 8, Restore 1

So an absolute massive majority pro-Rejoin. A vote pro-Rejoin could put an end to any hopes Reform, Restore and others might have to progress in British politics.