President Trump is just coming to the end of the first period of his second mandate and questions rise about what comes next

It feel that it was only yesterday that we were watching elections in the USA, going into the early hours,  getting to know all the results of the voting journey, getting to know who were going to be the elected representatives - and by representatives I do not mean just the members of the House of Representatives, but all elected officials.

A lot has happened since then and only two years after those elections we live in a completely different world. Without a shadow of a doubt, looking at the history of the world, taking into account all that happened before, for many reasons, this has been a remarkable Presidency. There will be good reasons and there will be bad reasons, given your individual views. I do not think that anybody knew beforehand the sort of realities that we would be facing today.

Now, once again, in a few days time, the world will dramatically change. We do not know the outcome of the Mid-Term elections in the USA. We are once again speculating that for these reasons or for other reasons, the outcome would be this or the outcome would be that.

I am one of those that will be watching what happens on November 8th, 2026. I reckon that many people across the world will be watching these elections and thinking about how their lives will be affected by these elections. Having watched many elections, I reckon that not even those standing as candidates will know what comes next.

In the meantime, I will be watching also other elections. Europe faces now and in the near future very important decision journeys. Latin America and to name one set of elections, Brazil will be deciding before American voters if it wants to give Lula da Silva another Presidential Mandate or if it wants to give Flavio Bolsonaro his first Presidential Mandate. Despite the fact that many of us have become more skeptical regarding democratic processes, nevertheless, we feel that democratic processes do matter.

Despite the fact that many of us face an uphill struggle, we still want to believe that there is hope, that positive solutions are on the way.

Undoubtedly, there will be new faces and perhaps those we see as political heirs will not be political heirs and new faces and perhaps new agendas will arrive.  

USA MId-Term elections and outcomes for the rest of the world

 USA Mid-Term Elections are not just fundamental for the USA, but for the entire world.

There was never before a time so crucial in terms of the consequences of a set of elections in one particular country. November 8th 2026 is the date when the totality of the seats in the House of Representatives and one third of the seats in the Senate will be up for election. Even before the elections ever takes place, there are already consequences. 

A deal between the USA and the Russian Federation regarding diesel exports from Russian Federation to USA is basically about lowering the price of diesel in the USA as USA customers are increasingly bothered by rising oil and gas prices created by two main conflicts: Ukraine and the Gulf War against Iran.

Angry customers would not be willing to support a Republican Party headed by President Trump. But this is also about mixed messages. Not all Americans see the actions of President Trump as wise when it comes to Ukraine, when it comes to an unprovoked war against Iran and when it comes to many other issues. Many commentators tells us that the United States of America is a very polarized, divided country at many levels. "Making America Great" has been interpreted as great for some and bad for others.

Relationships with countries that appeared to be particularly close to the USA have suffered a great deal and the bond of trust has been broken. Perhaps the EU and NATO countries are not very happy with the way United States of America is conducting itself. Tariffs, embargoes, threats, lecturing, and conflicting international agendas do not help. What will be the most important deal breaker? What will be the major concerns of the American electorate?

While we await the outcome of these elections that will determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, we look at the potential consequences for the executive branch. Will President Trump have a majority in the Senate and in the House of Representatives or will he be bound to agree with Congress on one policy at a time if the Republican Party loses one or the two houses? How will the outcome of these elections affect American Foreign Policy? Democrats would only need to win 3 more seats in the Senate to take control of the Senate. If President Trump becomes a de-facto Lame Duck President, will he be more or less beligerant?

Many people seem to think that once President Trump comes to the end of his second period as President, a Republican successor will win the next Presidential Elections, but then there is huge question mark about who will be the next Presidential Candidate. Can we safely assume who will be the next Presidential Candidate? Can we safely assume that whoever it is will be the next American President? With this in mind, there are far too many uncertainties regarding the role of the USA after November 2026 and this for starters.

In the meantime, new elections in other countries linked to the USA are on the horizon and such elections could change the dynamics of international relations. Will the world before President Trump and after President Trump be the same or similar? When we thought that COVID had dramatic consequences, here came another series of events that have destabilized the world even more.

International Law and Geopolitical realities: Is there International Law?

When Justice is closely linked to particular agendas that have little to do with Justice, we get very much the law of the jungle in which whoever can do will do as he or she sees fit. What we have seen in recent years has little to do with any kind of justice. In fact, it is the recognition that Might is Right. 

When we witness the implementation of Might is Right, then we have to be preperred for a violent backlash. Not even the assumption of "My power comes directly from God" could save mighty from a catastrophic downfall. Charles I´s came to an end in Central London. The Frech Revolution brought down the French Monarchy. Ceaucescu and his wife did not last long after the events in Romania. And so has the fate of so many more powerful men been. 

Today, MI5 talks about the sudden rise of the threats of terrorism. Well, there is a reason for that. Looking at what has been happening in the United Kingdom for decades, at the impunity in the implementation of ethnic cleansing by allowing hundreds of thousands to flock into the United Kingdom with total disregard, with total contempt, one can understand that somebody somewhere is going to be extremely angry and when anger goes beyond what is bearable then people will react.

Not talking about the issues, trying to brush things under the carpet, you will have to have a carpet big enough, large enough, to hide what is now common knowledge. The mess has become an everyday occurrence in peoples´lives. They no longer need to be told about it. They experience it themselves. 

People see genocide. People see mass murder. People see violent crimes unpunished or even promoted. Geopolitical realities are now inextricably linked to national realities. Tolerance is no more. Mercy is no more. Humanity is no more.

Environmental Concerns and Energy: it is like dealing with two different worlds

 

While most people agree that pure air and protected ecosystems and other aspects of looking after the environment are fundamentally important, perhaps few manage to understand the size of the challenges ahead and come up with totally unrealistic solutions.

Just one set of problems linked to diesel supplies and everything appears to come to a halt. While is diesel so fundamentally important? Transport comes to mind. Food production comes to mind. Energy production comes to mind. And diesel is not going to be replaced any time soon.

When European countries get together to talk about emergency diesel supplies, we know that diesel is not going to be substituted with nuclear energy, solar energy, hydroelectric energy, wind power and so forth to meet the needs that we have got right now and it might take decades before that could happen when and if we have got alternative sources of energy, powerful enough and reliable enough.

As if this was not enough, there are more than enough demographic and geographic challenges right in front of us, right now. The new Gulf War made clear that we need fertilisers to feed billions of peoples. Fertilizers do not come from alternative energy sources. They are chemical products made with oil. So talking about replacing fossiel fuels means talking about replacing fertilizers and fossil fuels are linked with many bi-products, including substances and equipment used in healthcare. The now humble aspirin plays a vital role to prevent strokes and heartattacks and aspirin comes from.... oil.

We need environmentalists to be much better informed about what we are dealing with and to stop being ideological. We need a lot more realism and pragmatism. Learn about numbers and uses. Learn about what is doable and what is not doable. Oversimplification can turn people off and is turning people. Can we collectively do better? Of course we can. And we collectively could do a lot better if we are aware of all the realities that we have to deal with. No ifs, not buts.

Will Britain go back into the EU? National and Geopolitical issues involved

 

Will Britain go back into the EU without British veto?

At this point in time, a returning Britain could be in a much worse position than before. No veto, no rebate and the threat of majority vote to replace unanimity vote regarding major decisions.

The unassailable City of London will be forced to see Frankfurt as a threat. Fiscal discipline, very much as it happens when the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) was around could put Britain in a financial straightjacket. And what would happen to the Bank of England as an independent body?

We would go back to a system that prevented states from subsidizing companies. But there is a lot more going on.

There are fundamental issues to consider. Devolution, Good Friday Agreement, legislation that will limit the capacity of regional and national parliaments to issue legislation that could contravene measures and legislation adopted by the European Union.

And unavoidably, Britain would have to consider the independence of its Armed Forces and immigration policies.

The number and complexity of issues is so vast that it is difficult to even enumerate them in a very brief article.

The subject resurged when Andy Burnham stated that "Britain could go all the way". From a legal standpoint, would another Referendum be needed? The Labour Prime Minister could state that since the Labour Party has such big majority then Parliament will decide. North of the border in Scotland, the SNP has always been about rejoining EU. In Wales, will Plaid Cymru be against it? In England, Labour, Lib Dems and Green might be all for it.

This leaves parts of the Conservative Party, Reform and Restore against rejoining EU. UKIP, Brexit Party, then Reform and Restore and so forth, always stood on the fringes and rejoining EU would be a way to neutralize the likes of Reform and Restore. Without a Referendum, Reform, Restore and segments of the Conservative Party would have to rely on MPs.

Expected to be pro-Rejoin:

Labour 403, Liberal Democrat 71, Green Party 5, SNP 5, Plaid Cymru 4 = 488

Expected to be pro-Region:

We do not know how many of the 118 Conservatives will oppose pro-Rejoin. Reform 8, Restore 1

So an absolute massive majority pro-Rejoin. A vote pro-Rejoin could put an end to any hopes Reform, Restore and others might have to progress in British politics.

Misery is growing exponentially: Frustation, mental illness, violence, and isolation

 

Misery is growing exponentially: Frustration, mental illness, violence and isolation

Are we happier and healthier? We usually associate misery with poverty and extreme poverty. But those in the wealthier brackets of society are also affected. Numbers of those dying because substabance overdose? Whether we are talking about Elvis Presley, Cristina Onassis, Peaches Geldof, Mathew Perry and many more, the fact reams that substance abuse is widespread among the reachest, among the poorests and everybody else in between.

If this was not enough, violence because of widespread criminal activity or war is also spreading. We can build as many prisons as we wish or can build, we can murder or bomb (another way of murdering) millions and this will not change. Death does not tell the difference. The wealthiest have to accept that their bodies will be rotting or being cremated. 

There is a state of widespread madness that is out of control. As an economics teacher told us, never forget that all those numbers, percentages and equations are real people.

The killers and those killed will be eaten by worms and bacteria. The glories in the battlefield, the blood that waters the lands are just symptoms of a state of madness. 

In general, we need a greater understanding of how changes at national level can affect us as individuals, so that consequences do not come as a surprise

 

Friedrich Merz is the opposite of what Germany needs

At this point in time, many Germans would be asking how electoral results reflect what is happening in the country as a whole. Not since 1945 have the German peoples had to cope with so many changes with unpredictable consequences.

Both young and old are choosing to vote for Alternative für Deutschland. What does this mean? It means that both young Germans looking for work and old people who depend on pensions are reacting when confronted with the bad state of the German economy caused by various factors.

Cost of living has significantly increased leading to more of the younger generations being forced to live with their parents. A very unpopular Chancellor is becoming ever more unpopular. German voters do not trust a warmongering Friedrich Merz that reinforces memores of a not so distant past. But there is a lot than that. Thrift in Germany is a defining element of German character and temperament. The fact that Fiscal Laws were recently changed by the Bundestag to allow the government to spend more money does not make Germans happy and especially when the monies are not going to be spent in education, health, transport and infrastructure but sent abroad and given to a foreign government. 

Every German citizen is mandated by Law to contract insurance to pay for healthcare. This means paying private companies to have access to healthcare. When the see hundreds of thousands of foreigners coming into the country, with no knowledge of German language, that lack the skills or the will to work, that have values and customers that contradict German values and German customs, to be financially supported by German citizens, German voters have indeed reasons to be unhappy. One state after another, with the exception of elections in Berlin that favour Die Linke, ideologically linked with the former DDR, has favoured Alternative für Deutschland and if the outcome of the election in Sachsen - Anhalt was bad for CDU, the outcome in Meckleburg-Vorpommern could not be worse. Alternative für Deutschland 38.8% and CDU 4.9% running the certain risk of being excluded from the State Parliament..

Despite the fact that Alternative für Deutschland has become the bigger political party, other political parties have managed to form a wall, by refusing to cooperate with Alternative für Deutschland. The question is for how long the said wall will last since resentment is growing. 

It is plenly obvious that German citizens should be the fundamental priority. It should be plainly obvious that sacrificing fundamental needs by engaging in military adventures or wasting valuable resources to enrich foreign oligarchs that did not care about their fellow Ukrainians before is exactly the wrong kind of policy.