Will Labour supporters support Andy Burnham, abstain or vote Reform?

 

The Guardian: Andy Burnham to face Reform´s Robert Kenyon in crucial Makerfield by-election?

There is no doubt about the fact of why Andy Burnham has decided to stand in a by-election that will cost him is seat as Manchester Mayor and possibly lead him into the wilderness if he looses the by-election.

London Metropolitan Labour blocked Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election before the local elections and Labour lost the seat that by-then Andy Burnham wanted to stand for. 

There are different versions of events.

One version was that Keir Starmer did not want Andy Burnham to return to the House of Commons as MP and potentially challenge him for the leadership of the Labour Party. If successful, Andy Burnham had a chance of replaceing Keir Starmer as British Prime Minister.

Another version of events is that the Labour Party blocked Andy Burnham afraid of the fact that is Andy Burnham resigned as Mayor of Manchester then the Labour Party would lose the Mayoral seat in Manchester.

Whatever version of events you choose to believe, the fact that in the local elections Reform walked away with a huge number of seats makes the experience of standing to confront Reform in Manchester a very dangerous experience.

But then the question arises: what will Labour voters do, depending on which faction of the Labour Party they support.

1) Will they vote for Andy Burnham thus increasing the possibility of a success that will take him all the way into the House of Commons and make him a challenger for the Leadership of the Labour Party?

2) Will they abstain thus making failure a certainty? and 3) Will they even consider supporting the Opposition to send Andy Burnham into the wilderness, as a way to protect Keir Starmer?

Just two years ago, Robert Kenyon came second in the 2024 General Election that Labour won by a landslide, but this was before the local elections that almost wiped out Labour across Manchester. There are other players and they do matter if they chip support away from the main contenders. 

This has turned out to be one of the most decisive by-elections in British history.  What happens in Makerfield will affect the ruling party and the country as a whole. If Andy Burnham wins then the door will be opened for a leadership challenge. If Andy Burnham loses, he would have lost not only a by-election but also his seat as Manchester Mayor,

The Labour Party could lose both a by-election in Makerfield and the Manchester Mayor seat, and this after a disastrous set of local elections.

 

China: Britain´s reaction was expected

 

Britain´s reaction was expected

It is not personal. It is just business.

In a New World Order, then each operator is free to choose who to do business with. As EU celebrates a new agreement with India, UK celebrates an agreement with China.

Today, more than ever before, countries are seeking reassurance. With regards to threats of takeover and financial threats, players have decided to go their own way and do business with whoever they can do business with.

In the meantime, the value of the US Dollar keeps falling and investors are running for cover investing in precious metals and in whatever assets they can get hold of that offer them security. In the US, despite disagreements, Democrats and Republicans are doing deals to prevent yet another Federal Budget crisis, but this means surrendering control over an ever rising US debt.

Whatever resources the US can get hold of by invading or threatening other countries, the enormity of the US debt is pushing the value of the US currency lower and lower.

US Bonds: the Achilles Heel of the American Economy

 

Miscalculations are costly. #historyshorts #history #trump #greenland #nato

If the USA misguidedly does something about Greenland, European countries can sink the US economically by getting rid of US Bonds. 

The Federal Reserve has been intervening on a daily basis because at every auction the number of potential investors has been falling and those who are still willing to buy US Bonds are asking for higher yields.

If suddenly, trilllions of US Dollards in US Bonds were to be floated in international markets, the USA would be literally out of pocket, the US Dollar would sink, and the USA would face the greatest recession in USA history with little chance of recovery.

A few days ago, I thought that Greenland would be Sudetenland and now I see that Sudetenland would be 1939 Poland. 

President Trump can threaten Europe with tariffs. Europe can get rid of US Bonds and it will be a lot more painful than tariffs.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/16/the-dollar-is-losing-credibility-why-central-banks-are-scrambling-for-gold

What is the real state of the American Economy: Why has the Federal Reserve had to intervene several times during the passing week?

 

What is the real state of the American Economy? Why has the Federal Reserve had to intervene several times during the passing week?

The Federal Government depends on selling bonds in order to borrow considerable amounts of money and two trillion US Dollars - planned borrowing for 2026 - is an awful amount of money, even by US standards. When investors are only willing to buy bonds are increasingly hight rates or not willing to invest at all in US bonds, this is sure sign of trouble for the US Dollar. Things appear shaky, to say the least, and we are not talking about freezing payments for the Federal Budget. Recently, the US administration was in a prolonged lockdown until, somehow, agreement was reached between the White House and Congress. But what is happennig right now is about a lot more than that. 

Internationally, the US Dollar has been used as measure of value and as a way to store wealth. In most cases, if you want to buy energy (fossil fuels), the US Dollar is the currency reference. Despite the fact that with regards to other currencies - ie the Pound or the EURO - the value of the US Dollar has remained relatively unchanged, the US Dollar has lost support and foreign banks are now reluctant to invest in American National Debt. If the USA can only sell bonds at ever higher rates and/or investors are no longer willing to lend any monies, then any additional printing of monies will certainly throw the USA over the edge. If the worst happens before the November 2026 Mid-Term Elections this would mean that the present Administration has only a few months left and that the next administration will be left with an absolute nightmare.

This could well explain why the present Administration has turned out to be such an aggressive Administration when financial breakdown is no longer a possibility but a certainty in the very short term.

Ukraine: According to Ukrainian reports, Russian forces will take Kiev in 2026

 

Forget comments made on Twitter and on the other platforms. These are official estimates of Russian advances in Ukraine by the end of 2026. By that time, or before that time, Kiev will fall, according to an Ukrainian Official.

Be the end of 2026, Ukraine will have become a landlocked country after the fall of Odessa. It has also been reported that not less than 300,000 Russian troops are already deployed in Belarus.

Odessa is a key port facility. The fall of Odessa will actually mean that an import/export facility will be closed for business.

No matter what politicians and mass media are constantly telling you, reality calls and it comes from an official Ukrainian source. While EU politcians try to make you believe that they are there to threaten them, in reality this could be a pincer operation. While Ukrainian sources in Kiev believe that this is a threat right on the northern border of Ukraine, military sense tells you that by keeping forces to prevent a breakthough in the north, the natural consequence is that there is less manpower to prevent a Russian advance from the East.

Do you remember the chapter about Calais and Normandy during World War Two? Vital forces were kept away from Normandy because Germany believed that the landings were going to happen in Calais. The south of France was left practically unprotected and most forces were sent towards Normandy.

In this particular scenario what are the two main points? Kiev and Odessa. Kiev is the political capital of Ukraine and Odessa has the main port facilities.

  

Germany, once again, will have the strongest Armed Forces in Europe

 

As new plans are being drawn, the Federal Republic of Germany will have once again the strongest Armed Forces in Europe.

It has become self-evident that Pax Americana will be replaced with Pax Deutschland. Germany as the strongest and wealthier country in Europe, will be in charge of European security and economics.

German superiority will be ascertained once again. Germany is taking significant stepts to overhaul its military. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to build Europe´s strongest army. An ambitious goal for a country that has long dealt with underfunding and neglect. Conscription is the key towards German rearmament. The aim is to vastly increase manpower of the German Armed Forces. The initial plan is to have more than 500,000 troops ready for combat. Mandatory enlistment is on the cards. All men of 18 years of age will be obliged to complete forms for military service. Men of military age will be also obliged to be subjected to regular health check ups showing that they are fit to go to war.

At this point in time, World War Two is very much in the mind of the German Peoples. They are willing to fight for Germany, but they are not willing to fight for NATO. Deutschland, Deutschland über alles. They are willing to defend Germany, but they are not willing to fight somebody else´s wars.

The question that arises is how long will it take for Germany to become, once again, the strongest military force in Europe. Present estimates indicate that this will not happen before 2030. Having said that, the present politicial status quo is by no means guaranted. A different government with different agendas might make it happen long before 2030. An European Union controlled by Germany is very much a possibility. Without firing a single shot, Germany could achieved what Adof Hitler did not achieve in the 1930s and 1940s. 

In fact, Adolf Hitler predicted that a strongest Germany would rise when the then powers USA and Soviet Union confronted each other. The Soviet Union is no more since 1991, but the reasoning is very much the same. The German people that were bombarded with messages of guilt for so long might now restore militaristic thinking across Germany and German military traditions will be equally restored.

USA and Russian Federation close to an agreement on Ukraine

It came as no surprise that the interest of the EU and the interests of the USA are not aligned. The actions of the American Administration mobilizing forces in the Caribbean Sea are not fully supported by the United Kingdom or some of the strongest members of the European Union. 

The Middle East Chapter and Palestine is again another example of how the USA bypassed Britain and the European Union, making very clear that the Middle and Palestine is American business.

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine - in part created by the European Union - the USA has played a protagonic role and now another level in terms of American influence might be about to be reached.

If it becomes apparent that USA and the Russian Federation have reached an agreement to partition Ukraine, the UK and the EU would once again be shown as irrelevant. The deal includes territorial concessions and reduction of any military and financial support for Ukraine.

Once Ukraine is out of the picture, the ball comes to the UK and the EU that will no longer be able to divert attendtion from their own internal issues.

The next four years are criticial years in Europe. There will be Presidential Elections in France in 2027. There could be an advanced General Election in the United Kingdom. If Ukraine is no longer in the horizon, Chancellor Friedrich Merz will struggle even more to keep the coalition together and the Federal Election due to take place in 2029 could happen earlier. And what about the USA itself. The entire agenda is hanging on the balance as Mid-Term Elections are in the horizon. So anything decisive will have to happen soon. 

So for the USA, there is a rush to get the Ukrainian issue sorted as soon as possible.