United Kingdom: bills keep piling up with prices that are rising almost on a monthly basis

For many people, the way rates of inflation are calculated is an absolute mystery that bears no relationship with the their cost of living. The cost of utilities and the cost of the shopping basket (itens that you need to buy or buy because you could not possible be without) is rising and often by 100%. 

No sooner you are trying to digest the cost of recent increases you get another letter informing you about additional costs to be introduced next month. In my mind, this amounts to devaluation. You are getting less for your monies. Your pounds are worth less and less and less and there is end in sight.

Another issue that should have more and more people worried is the fact that house prices are dropping and for those who have mortgages and loans used to acquire the property that live this means the certainty of having to deal with negative equity - when the value of the assets is less than the financial commitments you signed for in order to acquire the said assets.

You could have a mortgage for 1,000,000 Pound when in fact your property value is now 700,000 Pound. Even if you sell your property you will still owe the lender the amount of 300,000 Pound. No property left. Just debts. Those who have been faced with negative equity can tell you that it is not a nice experience.

For you is a very bad experience. For the financial system it could be even more catastrophic. Northern Rock was bankrupted. Many of the big banks had to be rescued with taxpayers monies. When Gordon Brown made the decision to rescue the banks, he did it because the alternative was financial paralysis.

If peoples incomes go down because of additional taxation, rising cost of borrowing and inflation, it is to be expected that disposable income will go down dramatically thus affecting consumption. Less consumption, more unemployment and more support needed to keep the unemployed and those do not earn enough alive.

We have not seen the nex budget being prepared by the Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey. The Prime Minister says that increases in defense expenditure will not happen at the expense of welfare and of vital services. The cost of public debt is rising and the country is left with unsavoury alternatives - more borrowing, tax increases and budget cuts.

AfD: Young German voters prefer Alternative für Deutschland

Alternative für Deutschland is the favourite political party for young Germans

Statistically, young German voters prefer Alternative für Deutschland and turnout was over 70% in elections in Anhalt-Saxony.

Despite being an institution in German Politics, the alliance CDU/CSU has been running out of steam. It all started with Angela Merkel that made two fundamental mistakes. One critical mistake was to get rid of nuclear power thus making Germany almost totally dependent on fossil fuel, much of which was imported and is still imported. Another mistake was a policy of open borders that threatens to destabilize Germany and has negatively affected other members countries of the European Union. 

But, worst of all, the most recent mistake has been made by its present Chancellor Friedrich Merz that promote confrontational policies that push Germany towards war in Europe. Such policies will not make him the darling of those who suffered the consequences of two World Wars. The young will not vote for war and one of the fundamental weaknesses of the present Chancellor is that whatever he states as declared intention of the German State the fact remains is that he will struggle to persuade young Germans of military age to support his stances of military aggression.

Providing money and weapons, Germany is alread fighting an undeclared war. Friedrich Merz has gone as far as getting rid of all the financial safety mechanisms that prevent over´spending at a time when German manufacturing is struggling to compete with the rest of the world. A flag company like Volkswagen has already lost 100,000 workers and there are about 50,000 workers on the way out. Germany cannot compete either because of trade barriers or because of technological advances of competitor ie China.

The more Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his supporters seek to ban Alternative für Deutchland the more the few German voters that supported CDU/CSU will move away from CDU/CSU.

CDU/CSU is not even a shadow of its former self and CDU/CSU barely managed to form a coalition that given economic and financial circumstances will struggle to survive another German Federal Election.

Already under Angela Merkel, CDU/CSU representatives were working together with Alternative für Deutschland, something that led to threats issued by Angela Merkel against CDU/CSU members who cooperated with Alternative für Deutschland.

Althernative für Deutschland is de facto the party for Peace in Europe. No German soldiers in foreign wars has Alternative für Deutschland stated over and over again. Friedrich Merz was a political figure that inspired mistrust and hatred. His actions as German Chancellor have only confirmed what many, the vast majority who did not support him, already thought. He was only confirmed as Chancellor after a second round of voting in the German Parliament, having been rejected during a fird round of voting.

Many believe that Friedrich Merz, like Benjamin Netanyahu, is more than willing to send German young to their deaths in a war of aggression for the sole purpose of keeping himself in power.

 

Germany is not staying behind. Germany is keeping up. Why should Britain be the only one?

Argentinian President Javier Milei: The winds of change

 

Argentina: The Winds of Change

President Javier Milei finds himself talking about the "Winds of Change" and winds there are many when it comes to the South Atlantic on the way to Antarctica.

What did not happen in 1982 under a Military Junta could happen under a democratically elected President. Britain was not in the best position in 1982, but Britain is in a much worse position in 2026 and we still have not seen the numbers that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, former Secretary for Defense John Healey, is going to provide. It will not be nice. Mr Healey might have even less monies for Defense than the monies he was offered by Rachel Reeves and the reason he resigned his post as Secretary for Defense. What is essential or not essential in terms of training is a debatable subject. Argentina just announced that it will be new military installations that will give Argentina better access to Falkland Islands, and Falkland Islands are not the only islands under British control in the South Atlantic. In 1982, Britain was not caught up with a conflict in Europe for which it is not well prepared. President Trump has been found laughing about British military power and he might not offer Britain any support should there be a conflict, once again, in the South Atlantic.

I would say that for Britain things are much worse than they ever were in 1982. Equipment that Britain had and that made the difference in a conflict that happened more than 40 years ago has not been updated nor replaced.

Argentina does not need military forces on mainland Argentina for internal puposes or as a precaution because of strained relationships with Chile at the time when the invasion happened. President Allende did support Margaret Thatcher and Chilean support in 1982 was for Britain a sine qua non. President Kast, shares President Milei´s ideology and so that President Trump that is visibly involved in developing American influence in Latin America.

So things have changed exponentially and not in a favourable way for Britain.

The USA, and not just those who support President Trump, have good reasons to support Argentina. As members of the American Administration stated very openly, Europe is no longer a priority. China is. So countries that are closer to the USA, where China has been playing an ever greater role, are also a priority. With Venezuela "under control", Panama controls the passage between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which is a crossing of fundamental strategic importance for the USA - a passage that was built by the USA.

So where is Britain in all this? What is happening with the geopolitical agenda? What is happening with trade? Britain has a limited presence in Antarctica, but so do other countries. Undoubtedly, British Islands in the South Atlantic are relevant as a gate to Antarctica. For Argentina, it is obviously a bonus. It is about asserting Argentinian influence. This is for Argentina a James Monroe Moment. Just imagine what it would mean for the Argentinian peoples and for President Milei himself. Imagine what it would mean to be seen as the Argentinian President that "recovered the South Atlantic Islands".

So we keep following developments. This could be the ultimate slap on the face of Britain. So President Trump is using it. "You did not help me with Iran. I would not help you in the South Atlantic."

In Brazil, President Lula da Silva is campaigning for a presidential election in which the son of the now former President Bolsonaro is standing, but with or without a Bolsonaro as Brazilian President, the winds of change are not blowing in favour of Britain. 

UK Preparing for War? What is actually happening?

Preparing for War?

Does it feel like a country looking to beef up its defense? I hope Conservatives could wake up and stop talking about wars that Britain is unfit to fight. Empty chit chat passing as serious analysis. Present and former MPs are making themselves look and sound like assholes. 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/sep/04/british-army-halt-non-essential-training-exercises-save-money

 Britain cannot even produce proper tanks and Britain created the tanks. I followed the whole thing including what happened when Ben Wallace was Secretary for Defense, talking about cutting manpower to create rapid response SAS like teams. British drone technology, the magic response, is already outdated.

While this is happening, Lithuania indicated that it is ready to attack Russian Federation and Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, make similar comments. Both Lithuania and Germany attacking Russian Federation not as NATO countries, on their own.

Obviously this can cause one of two things: 1) a widespread European War 2) the end of NATO when other NATO countries refuse to get involved. But there is a third possibility: USA might decide not to get involved as it goes against USA interests and say that it is nothing to do with NATO.

When NATO countries are making military alliances of their own, this is also a reason to be extremely concerned. Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia just signed a mutual defense pact. Israel and Muslim hating Modi from India have an ongoing arrangement as India provides crucial resources to Israel.

So, if Israel decides to go against Turkey, something that Benjamin Netanyahu has already spoken about, Israel would be actually going against Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Faraway from Europe, Middle East and Asia Minor, President Milei of Argentina, with American support is preparing to take over South Atlantic Islands. The story tells about fundamental differences between USA and Britain when it comes to geopolitics.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham: calming the markets....?

 

The Guardian, the London newspaper talks about Prime Minister Andy Burnham trying to calm bond market, as more and more investors are getting rid of bonds of public debt. It must be said that it is not just Britain that might be losing its capacity to borrow billions of US Dollars (althougn bonds might be valued in Pounds) to paid a public debt that amounts to trillions US Dollars.

Any budget must be based on reliable data, but nowadays data has a habit of changing even before any budget is formulated. So by the time the Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey (former Secretary for Defense) rises in the House of Commons to deliver the so called Autumn Budget all numbers in it might be totally outdated. Without the capacity to borrow more then taxing more and budget cuts could be the only way left to adjust public expenditure. Both options are deeply unpopular because they both go for one word: Austerity.

For a Labour Prime Minister having to start by imposing new taxes and cutting budgets because there is no money to go around is not what was promised during the first short campaign for an election that never happened. When the amount of monies available is significantly reduced, the impact of increasing defense expenditure makes cuts in other areas of the public administration even more painful. As Paul Samuelson, the American Economist stated, it is butter or cannons. You cannot have them both in equal measure. Something has to go. Will it be welfare payments? Whatever the previous Prime Minister did that was considered to be done against Labour values will be nothing compared with the limitations the new Prime Minister will have to impose.

Suddenly, recent electoral successes in Makerfield and Manchester will feel like a pyhrric victory. The joy and celebratons might turn into a funeral. More taxes will certainly means less buying power in the pockets of already suffering taxpayers. Budget cuts will mean more unemployment. But in actual fact both measures can accelerate the rise of unemployment. If you raise taxes, you cut private investment and consumption. Taxes will be higher but the amount of monies collected will be reduced due to less economic activity. Keir Starmer´s exit from Parliament will help him distance himself from then nightmare that is coming and Andy Burnham´s time as Prime Minister could be cut short.

Right after Andy Burnham was appointed, there were rumours that he would go to the country, that he intended to have his own Parliamentary majority, even by losing many of the seats that Labour managed to win in 2024. Going to the country, having a General Election preceded by a whole bunch of bad news does not look, sound and feel like a good idea. Labour MPs that did not want Keir Starmer as Leader and Prime Minister made the choice to remain under Keir Starmer not to risk losing their seats.

When Andy Burnham threw his hat on the right they could have rocket the boat and go for internal elections in the Labour Party. Instead, they chose to have Andy Burnham appointed without any contest. The idea was pure and simple. No contest to challenge Andy Burnham would show the Labour Party as something that the Labour Party is not: a united Party. When the new budget is presented in the House of Commons, factional rivalries will reappear. 

Having a majority in Parliament might look like a blessing, but having too many MPs might be inconvenient. A majority that cannot be controlled becomes a liability.

At a distance, Labour MPs that are no longer Cabinet Members could have been disappointed, hurt because they were no longer at the forefront of the Labour government. Now, many of them like Rachel Reeves might be congratulating themselves because they do not have to face the mess the new government will have to deal with. She was being forced to calculate and recalculate budgets before they were even presented in Parliament. Now the man who complained and even resigned as Secretary for Defense because he was not getting enough money for defense will have to face reality. Now, it is John Healey´s time to face the music.

Sue Gray did not last long as Chief of Staff under Keir Starmer. She said that she felt that she was being spied on, that her private conversations were being recorded and leaked to the mass media. Has the political environment inside the Labour government changed overnight? As pressure mounts, one can expect that internal tensions will rise. As the expression goes "keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer". 

 

  

British Default: As things go, a British Default is becoming more likely by the day

A British default is becoming more likely by the day. A country that owes trillions of US Dollars, pays billions on a monthly basis and has little to show for a real economy looks increasingly as a ship heading towards the rocks.

John Healey, former Secretary for Defense and now Chancellor of the Exchequer, has very little to be happy about and so do millons of Britons whose lives are turning into a nightmare. Prices that used to be relatively stable are now rising monthly or weekly.

By the time you finish doing your budget, you have to start all over again. If the Chancellor of the Exchequer has even less money to distribute then the risks of job losses and welfare cuts are all too obvious. If this comes together with loss of trust regarding the Pound then the ugly face of Devaluation is all too visible. It is also obvious that is the economy goes drastically downhill then investors trust will evaporate. Investors are already asking for higher and higher returns for public debt.

Reserves? What reserves? When Prime Minister Gordon Brown, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, was in charge then Britain had reserves to deal with the consecuences of an American financial upheaval. He could keep the banking system afloat, but there were many casualties. This time there are no reserves. The ship is going down and there are no lifeboats.