Britain - July 20th 2026 - Business as usual or the start of major changes?

 

Prime Minister Andy Burnham?

Will July 20th 2026 mark a new beginning or the beginning of the end? Much has been said, but nothing has been confirmed. It is just words in the air. We know practically nothing about what the direction of travel will be. We are being deliberately left in the dark and this is never reassuring.

Uncertainty and fear and little hope. Once the limelights are no more, we have landed down on the same political realities. Expect no miracle. Expect a lot of pain. Much more pain that you thought that you would have to bear because there is not a chance that in the short or medium term economic prospects will improve.

Keir Starmer left having brought British Steel into the public sector. Andy Burnham is planning to bring all railway transport into the public sector and is talking about re-industrialising Britain. But he does not go so far as talking about bringing all utilities into the public sector.

Political Party Names are brands: what to do when the brand is tarnished?

Political Party Names represent something real or imaginery. There is an issue of perception. Ideas are independent. Different political parties might come up with the same ideas and people might welcome certain ideas as long as they truest the brand that is proposing those ideas.

People might say to you "I will vote for Party A because I have always voted for Party A". Or they might say to you "I will never vote for Party A or I will never again vote for Party A." There is an assumption, positive or negative, that have often little to do with the policies being proposed. Or I like Candidate so and so. (talking about personal appearances) and then again about perception.

In 2025 and in 2026 again there was a massive change of perception and the Labour Party, about two years after a massive electoral success in Parliamentary Elections, was routed in local elections. The Conservative Party suffered a similar fate, but repeating the electoral disaster of 2024.

If this changes become a permanent feature then the two party system might become a various parties system or the newcomers - Reform and Greens - might be actually on the way to become the two main national parties.

The next test is several by-elections, but the bigger one will come in 2028 when London will elect the new London Assembly and after that the 2029 General Election.

For practical and obvious reasons, the Green Party is now working together with the Liberal Democrats to push aside the Labour Party. 

Abstention in the recent local elections remained high with, in some cases, less than 40 per cent of those registered to vote actually voting.

Two years down the line we will see the significance of the political changes that occurred in 2026. From a Brand point of view, both Labour and Conservative will struggle to regain the status that they had for so long.

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18 June 2026 - Makerfield Battle for Britain?

Makerfield By-Election: All political forces will be there?

Labour is reportedly asking the Green Party not to stand, but Green Party supporters have stated that they will stand. The fear is that the Green Party will take away valuable votes that will make it more difficult for Labour to win. A win in Makerfield is important for a myriad of reasons. For the Labour Party it is about survival. Losing both Makerfield and Manchester, after two series of disastrous local elections is too much to bare. 

For the Green Party it is a test of its newly found popularity that led the Green Party to take control or almost all control of what used to be Labour Party strongholds. How safe are Labour MP seats? Recently, the Green Party got an MP elected in a by-election called because of the resignation of a Labour MP.

For Reform, it is the challenge of winning a Labour Party seat, on top of the many council seats taken away from both Labour and Conservatives. And what about the Conservative Party? Standing to lose to Reform? Making it easy for Labour or Green to take the seat?  Friends or Foes?

For the country, it is the possibility of getting, yet again, a non elected Prime Minister. People will soon start asking about mandates. Nigel Farage predicted that in 2026 there was going to be a General Election. Could Andy Burnham, if chosen as Prime Minister, call a General Election? Would he be willing to risk the more than 400 seats that Labour has now in Parliament?

The election is just weeks away, and what happens in Makerfield does matter.

Messiahnic leaders? Whoever leads the Labour Party, internal divisions will stil be around

 Makerfield: Beginning or End of a Political Era

Disappointment led to a categoric defeat for both Labour and Conservative. Three political parties benefitted from it: Reform, Greens and Lib Dems.

In Lambeth Borough Council, a council that used to be a flagship of the Labour Party, the Green Party is callenging the Labour Party and on June 1st 2026, the Green Party might fundamentally change the way the council is run by getting rid of the cabinet system. This means that the Labour Party will no longer be able to use a small team to control the way things are done and decisions will be taken not just by a few, but by the whole ensemble of Councillors elected to represent Lambeth residents.

This is a major change and we wait to see if similar changes happen in other local authorities.

Now, going back to the issue of the by-election of an MP in Wakerfield, there are several possibilities. Andy Burnham is elected MP or Andy Burnham is not elected MP. If Andy Burnham is elected MP, he will have to have enough support in a leadership challenge to unseat Keir Starmer. Then again there are two options: he manages to win or he fails to get enough support.

If Andy Burnham is not elected MP, then we go back to square one and talk about other contenders within the Labour Party. There are other issues like who is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Is it Rachel Reeves or Ed Milliband? Would Keir Starmer choose to negotiate a new Cabinent to appease his opponents?

Of course, there is also the issue of who is going to be the new Manchester Mayor as Andy Burnham stance to become MP has left the Mayoral seat vacant.

Now, lets think for a moment that Andy Burnham manages to get elected MP and manages to become Prime Minister. From the start, he would face enormous challenges inherited from Keir Starmer's administration. Iran, Ukraine, energy crisis, illegal immigration rising unemployment, high taxation, health, education, and so forth. Changing a Prime Minister does not mean that automatically everything will be sorted. Troublesome relationships will have to be dealt with. Will Andy Burnham be a better communicator? Will he be able to control Labour factions? If he cannot succeed then, without expectations and hope for an improvement, the panorama for the Labour Party will be even worse.

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer promises to campaign for Andy Burnham in Makerfield By-Election

 

Just recently, apparently, Prime Minister Keir Starmer stood on the way and reportedly prevented Andy Burnham from standing as a Labour Candidate that Labour lost to the Green Party. 

Since then, Labour nost just lost one by-election. Labour had a catastrophic performance in local elections, performace that reinforce a trend of people who want him to stand down as Labour Party Leader and therefore as British Prime Minister.

Wes Streeting, a now former Health Secretary, has stated that if there is a leadership challenge he would be standing in the Leadership Campaign.

Now, today, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised that he will campaign for Andy Burnham. This is a peculiar position to be in for, if Andy Burnham wins the by-election then he as newly elected MP would be in a position to challenge Keir Starmer as Leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister.

Lets not forget that the fact that Andy Burnham will be standing in the by-election means that the post of Manchester Mayor is vacant and this means having to have an additional by-election.

This is a crucial moment. Labour must win both by-election. Losing Makerfield, means the end of Andy Burnham´s chances of becoming Prime Minister without a General Election. It is a mixed baggage for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. 

(Pending updates)

Will Labour supporters support Andy Burnham, abstain or vote Reform?

 

The Guardian: Andy Burnham to face Reform´s Robert Kenyon in crucial Makerfield by-election?

There is no doubt about the fact of why Andy Burnham has decided to stand in a by-election that will cost him is seat as Manchester Mayor and possibly lead him into the wilderness if he looses the by-election.

London Metropolitan Labour blocked Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election before the local elections and Labour lost the seat that by-then Andy Burnham wanted to stand for. 

There are different versions of events.

One version was that Keir Starmer did not want Andy Burnham to return to the House of Commons as MP and potentially challenge him for the leadership of the Labour Party. If successful, Andy Burnham had a chance of replaceing Keir Starmer as British Prime Minister.

Another version of events is that the Labour Party blocked Andy Burnham afraid of the fact that is Andy Burnham resigned as Mayor of Manchester then the Labour Party would lose the Mayoral seat in Manchester.

Whatever version of events you choose to believe, the fact that in the local elections Reform walked away with a huge number of seats makes the experience of standing to confront Reform in Manchester a very dangerous experience.

But then the question arises: what will Labour voters do, depending on which faction of the Labour Party they support.

1) Will they vote for Andy Burnham thus increasing the possibility of a success that will take him all the way into the House of Commons and make him a challenger for the Leadership of the Labour Party?

2) Will they abstain thus making failure a certainty? and 3) Will they even consider supporting the Opposition to send Andy Burnham into the wilderness, as a way to protect Keir Starmer?

Just two years ago, Robert Kenyon came second in the 2024 General Election that Labour won by a landslide, but this was before the local elections that almost wiped out Labour across Manchester. There are other players and they do matter if they chip support away from the main contenders. 

This has turned out to be one of the most decisive by-elections in British history.  What happens in Makerfield will affect the ruling party and the country as a whole. If Andy Burnham wins then the door will be opened for a leadership challenge. If Andy Burnham loses, he would have lost not only a by-election but also his seat as Manchester Mayor,

The Labour Party could lose both a by-election in Makerfield and the Manchester Mayor seat, and this after a disastrous set of local elections.

 

Is there a redrawing of the political world in the United Kingdom?

It is plainly visible that the Conservative Party and the Labour Party are no longer that they used to be. In many areas inside the United Kingdom, the two party system has literally collapsed. New political parties have arrived and others are being created because of the partition of existing political parties.

The Labour Party was created because of the Trade Union Movement and now the Labour Party is on a collision course with the Trade Union Movement.

A political migration movement is accelerating. Trying to accommodate a plurality of views, often contradictory, has lead to ambiguities and frustration and lack of trust in big political organisations and, perhaps, the day for Britain to abandon the two party system is long overdue, opening the door to coalitions of smaller parties that better reflect in Parliament the views of individual voters.

Demographics influences, more and more, political life in the United Kingdom, and this is happening especially because of geopolitical issues. In more than one way, the existence of coalitions instead of big political parties is a healthier option, limiting the power of lobbies.

From a geopolitical perspective, no political party on its own would be able to drive the country in a given direction, without the support of a bigger number of voters, thus preventing any military adventures or the start of conflicts based on false premises. There would be greater accountability.

In order to fund wars, the Labour Party is ready and willing to sacrifice the elderly and the disabled

 

The Labour government that started in July 2024 started what was presumed to be a period of austerity, but soon after elections in which the Reform Party won 10 out of 16 local authorities the tune changed. More than 10 billion Pound for Mauritious, an undefined amount of money for Volodomir Zelensky, the promise to buil 6 ammunition factories, to build 12 nuclear submarines, to acquire jets capable of launching nuclear weapons and the list goes on. 

Nor the British Prime Minister, or the Chancellor of the Exchequer, or any other member of the Cabinent has been willing to tell the British people where the money is going to come from.

Where is the money coming from? A new term has been coined. Following QE Quantitative Easing, now comes QT Quantitative Tightening. The Bank of England is selling expensive bonds of public debt for lower prices and the Treasury has promised to cover the losses of the Bank of England. So monies that could have been used to finance better living standards. So, not enough money for disabled people, no money for schools, no money for the health service that the Labour Party has classified as "a wasteful NHS". 

Tomorrow´s decision in Parliament is very much linked to so called QT. We do not know what is going behind close doors, but we do know the Electorate´s reaction. Both Labour and Conservatives were massacred in the polling stations during the 2025 elections and 2026 could be an even more disastrous defeat for both Labour and Conservative.

Business activity in the United Kingdom has gone down 40% and there is a list of food chains closing branches across the country, as the number of cases of shoplifting goes up steadily. More taxes? More borrowing?

John Healey: if the money to support serving military personnel and their families was available, why no support was given until Reform appeared to be winning elections?

 

John Healey: if the money to support serving military personnel and their families was available, why no support was given until Reform appeared to be winning elections?

It is significative important to remark that just a few weeks ago there was massive austerity to the point the winter allowances for pensioners and welfare benefits were being cut, Now, after Reform won against Conservative and againts Labour, suddenly, out of the blue, there is money for everything.

So Rachel Reeves is willing to throw everything out of the Treasury to prevent Reform for winning elections. Sixteen times the Prime Minister mentioned Nigel Farage in a recent political gathering. Nigel Farage stated that he was happy to be living in the Prime Minister´s mind for free without having to pay rent.

Trust? What Trust? We have got a government that is willing to ruin Britain to keep itself in power. So, apparently, there was a budget gap left by the Conservatives. Well, a lot more than that has been spent or promised. More than 10 billion Pound for Mauritius, a very similar amount for Ukraine, 22 billion Pound for Ed Milliband Eco Projects, and now the promiss made by the Secretary for Defense that Britisn expenditure will rise exponentially to pay for defense? Where is the money coming from? From the 22 billion budget gap that Labour said that the Conservatives left behind. Ah, lets not forget billions of Pound promised for transport projects. 

Are you buying British debt bonds? Are you lending money to the British government? Are you afraid? I reckon you should be extremely afraid. One thing is to have to rescue the financial system. Another thing is to have enough money to rescue Britain which, as we know, would be something impossible to do given the size of the British economy.

UK: the most important issue by far is immigration and this is Reform vs Conservative

 

The biggest issue by far in UK politics is immigration

This is a contest between the Reform Party and the Conservative Party

Non since 1997 had the Conservative Party suffered such a catastrophic series of electoral defeats in the United Kingdom. In July 2024, the unthinkable happened and the Labour Party cruised to power after 14 years of a Conservative Party Administration (or should be talk about several Conservative Governments). The fact is that the infighting within the Conservative Party led to several leadership contests and coming and goings in terms of economic policies. Voters lost confidence on a visibly confused and divided Conservative Party to the point that in the last leadership election the new leader was not chosen by a majority of members of the Conservative Party, but merely by Members of Parliament.

The outcome of 2024 was a complete disaster for the Conservative Party that saw its representation in the House of Commons reduced to a few more than a 100 Members of Parliament. The situation did not improve after a series of by-elections caused by personal scandals. This years the Conservative Party was campaigned to maintain control of not less than 16 local authorities. It lost them all.

Internal problems in the Conservative Party have not gone away. In fact, they are exacerbated by the fact that high profile Conservative MPs distance themselves from what is now the main core of what is left of the Conservative Party. Big vote winners of the Conserevative Party have fallen into disrepute. There is no unity and there is still the same level of confusion, aggravated by the fact that many of the issues they are now talking about are issues that they should have dealt with during 14 years of a Conservative Party administration.

So, when it comes to confronting the Reforma Party the question arises. "Why you did not do before what you now tell us that you want to do now? "It is a disarming question. The Conservative Party had a majority in Parliament and did not do what it now promises that it will do when it is stuck in Opposition.

A Conservative Party in Opposition cannot deliver any promises. Therefore many Conservative voters are now supporting the Reform Party and there is confusion about what the Reform Party stands for. Many voters do not have the time nor the inclination to focus on several issues at the same time. They now choose to focus their attention on one particular issue: Immigration. Immigration includes both illegal migration and legal migration. People care about illegal migration precisely because it is illegal and people care about legal migration because legal migration levels are much too high. 

Even the leader of the Labour Party that has always been in favour of mass migration made a statement declaring that new legislation was on the way to curb legal migration.

The more the Conservative Party attacks the Reform Party the more voters feel inclined to support the Reform Party. Why? Because in the Reform Party there is clarity of purpose about an issue most people care about. At this point in time, in certain areas, the Reform Party is winning against both Labour and Conservative. In other areas, the Labour Party has to fear the advances of the Green Party. If the Green Party manages to replace Labour in many areas and if the retreating Conservatives turn out to support the Reform Party then the chances of success of the Reform Party are vastly improved.

Next year, once again, there are local elections and all 32 local authorities in Greater London will be contested. Whatever the Labour government has done since July 2024 and whatever the Labour government will do until May 2026 will have an impact. Unfulfilled promises and discontent about policies implemented will play a very important role at local level. It could be said that the Greater London Elections will be the starting point of the campaign for the 2028 London Assembly Elections and soon after that there is going to be another General Election in 2029. There is an electoral progression that, for the moment, does not favour Labour or Conservative. The Reform Party and the Green Party stand to benefit at every level. 

Since the Liberal Party - now known as Liberal Democratic Party - was relegated to third place, there has never been anything so trascendental in British Politics. The Conservative Party has reigned supreme during most of the history of Parliamentary Democracy in the United Kingdom. The thought that the Conservative Party could be relegated to third or fourth place in the first quarter of the Twenty-First Century speaks volumes about the political challenges Britain is facing.

Labour Party?

 

In 2008, Britain faced a gigantic crise and billions were 'invested' to save the financial sector

Native Americans have an expression: keeping an ear on the ground. This literally means keeping an year on the ground to hear galloping horses. Looking at the pages of The Guardian and at postings on Internet from well known Labour Party operators it is easy to see that all is not well on Planet Starmer.

No more taxes and no more Austerity? North of the border, in Scotland, the SNP has been collecting taxes by imposing taxes on property transactions. South of the border, in England, the Labour Party is planning to charge taxes on property transacttions. This means that property owners are going to get a lot less than they now get for selling their properties.

If a property is worth 1000 and property transactions are for 1000, then the selling amount minus the cost of the ititial acquisition will be taxed 40%. Sellers will have to recoup the 40% the government is planning to take away. Selling prices will rise or sales will come to a hault altogether.

If the idea is to lower the cost of housing, imposing a tax on transactions will push prices up or will stop sales thus compromising, once again, the financial sector. We know that the properties market is what keeps the British economy afloat. Paralizing the properties market will send the British economy in a downwards spiral.

If the financial sector is compromised, the state cannot rescue the financial sector and it would be meaningless to try to rescue the financial sector if the rules that promove the crise are not changed. 

So Keir Starmer stated that he is out to fight against what he calls 'far right extremists'. In fact, a gigantic financial crise will do exactly the opposite. 

Alexander Gauland, from Alternative für Deutschland wrote: Wie schlimm kann es Deutschland gehen? Wie viel können wir provozieren? Es sei demnach im Interesse der Partei, dass noch mehr Migranten nach Deutschland kommen, denn gann gehe es der AfD wesser. 

What applies to immigration in Germany, applies to financial crise in the United Kingdom. If in less than a year the Labour Party bankrupts the British economy, the malaise generated by a financial crise will motivate people to move in the opposite direction and support so called right wing policies. 

Since the act passed by David Cameron and Nick Clegg regarding fixed terms is no more, it is more than likely that Labour MPs will start moving against Keir Starmer and if Keir Starmer were to introduce rules that only allow MPs to select Prime Ministerial Candidates and prevent Labour Party members from voting then Keir Starmer will have yet another crise to contend with.

Let us remember that thanks to Jeremy Corbyn and many other MPs that either left the Labour Party or were thrown out of the Labour Party membership grew exponentially. Getting rid of voting rights for members could send Labour Party membership numbers downwards.

The situation will then be critical for both the Labour Party and the 'middle-ground Conservatives' and will be a net benefit for those to the left of the Labour Party and for those to the right of the Conservative Party. With meltdown in the middle, the extremes will gain millions of supporters.

Wednesday, July 17th 2024 - State Opening of British Parliament

 

On Wednesday, July 17th, 2024, a new era in British politics begins with the official Opening of Parliament in the United Kingdom. 

A new Prime Minister with a massive number of MPs to back him up - 412 - faces a completely different environment. Conservatives down and Liberal Democrats with a massive increase of seats. 

The State Opening of Parliament takes place in the House of Lords with the reading of a full package of policies and iniatiatives that the new administration intends to implement from now until the next General Election, supposedly due in 2029. And there is another ingredient in the new Parliament which is the presence of a new player - Reform - with Nigel Farage and Richard Tice at the helm. This should increase the pressure on the new government - pressure that has been perhaps temporarily reduced by a massively reduce presence of Conservative MPs.

But nothing should be taken for granted. As a political commentator stated, big majorities in Parliament can also be a huge nightmare for the man on the chair as Prime Minister. The fact that the Conservative Party has still to name a Leader after the resignation of Rishi Sunak MP, might provide some relief to the new Labour Administration.

And what about the process to choose a new Conservative Party Leader. Despite calls for MPs not to engage in blood letting exercises, the strength of feelings and strong personalities in the Conservative Party, and given the fact that non elected and non-reelected politicians will have a strong influence in the decision making process, could lead precisely to a fight without quarters. 

Migration: Doing nothing, as Labour suggests, is not a valid option

Migration is a ticking bomb and, if no solution is found, it could destabilize Britain as a whole. There are all kinds of issues involved including internal order and National Security. In many areas, the situation is already unmanageable. The word invasion is not an exaggeration. It is an everyday reality that many communities across Britain have to deal with. Do we need to wait until it turns into widespread violence?

Before, the country was going through severe social problems, and uncontrolled migration has made things much worse. Unfortunately, we are entering a new stage in which social disintegration is leading to confrontation. Frustration is leading to widespread anger.

Hotels full. Barges? Tents? Transforming Britain into a gigantic illegal migration camp is not the answer, but the gateway to massive security and social problems. Britons are patient, but don't keep pushing them because they will react and when they react they will keep going.

Most politicians are not listening and they are not listening at their own peril. Ideological stances that are against British interests are going to collide with angry local populations that feel that they are being taken for a ride. More than 7 million Pound a day the illegal migration crisis is costing British taxpapers, but this is only one aspect of the real bill being paid. If National Security and Social Unrest are taken into consideration, the cost of illegal migration is a lot higher.

A Prime Minister must have the power of his/her convictions and strength of character

Worrying sings appear when we see Prime Ministers and potential Prime Ministers falter and hesitate very publicly because it generates uncertainty and this is especially dangerous in difficult times. Britain is not any country. Britain is constantly at the centre of very difficult circumstances that can lead to international disasters.

We have enormous obstacles to overcome both nationally and internationally. A Prime Minister must inspire respect and confidence. Financially, politically and militarily, Britain is in the eye of the storm. The world looks at who is the British Prime Minister, almost in the same manner the world looks at who is the President of the USA.

More than ever before we need reassurance and the biggest problem for all concerned is that at the moment no British Prime Minister and no potential British Prime Minister inspires confidence and respect. Short-termism, hesitation, no sense of direction with decisions made today replaced the following day with decisions that go in exactly the opposite direction does not inspire confidence. Ordinary people are asking what those who represent them and those who stand to represent actually stand for and we don't get any credible information about the state of the parties.

It is usually said that we get what we vote for, but at this point in time we not even know what we are voting for. When you ask all the logical questions and either you don't get answers or get soundbites or fabrications instead of proper answers, when you are given a description that is totally at odds with reality, you have every reason to be concerned.

For more than a year we have heard talk about all kinds of very serious potential confrontations but when we look at the state of preparedness to deal with the said confrontations, what do we see? Total British military manpower: 73,000. There is talk of reducing the British Armed Forces by ten percent. How can anybody trust that what we are told is the truth, all the truth and nothing but the truth? In plain language, we cannot trust and we instinctively know that speeches and reality do not fit in. You cannot expect any serious participation in any military conflict given the size of British Armed Forces. We are not fit to fight in any external conflict and we are not even fit to defend the realm. When you are forced to use big ships to patrol British coastal waters and you are failing to keep Britain safe, you are not fit to fight any kind of war. Protecting borders is a sine qua non requirement for any country and Britain is failing to protect its own borders.

Thousands upon thousands of undocumented men in fighting age are entering Britain every year and what do the powers that are do about it? In fact, the numbers of those entering the country illegally vastly surpass the total numbers of the British Armed Forces that for many years have been suffering recruitment difficulties. When you look at recent announcement in terms of working conditions for members of the Armed Forces with the smallest salary adjustments when compared to other branches of the adminstration and of the private sector, you can immediately understand that this leads to widespread demolization. To start with, you can only have accommodation as long as you are a serving member of the Armed Forces, accommodation that you will no longer have once your leave the British Armed Forces. Then you will have to procure your own accommodation at market prices and you will not be able to save enough to do so because a private, for example, earns less than half the monies earned by a bus driver. When leaving the Armed Forces you will be poorer and force to leave in much worse conditions.

Neither the government nor the Opposition seem to care about the state of the British Armed Forces. Ben Wallace MP, the now leaving Secretary State of Defense, talks about quality being more important than quantity as justification for a ten per cent reduction of manpower. Well, in an international conflict you will need both quality and quantity and the British Armed Forces are getting neither.

Uxbridge by-election: Is it a given? Could ULEZ make the difference to put a spanner in Labour's plans to take the seat?

 Could ULEZ and women with penises put a spanner in Labour's works?