Labour Party?

 

 

Keir Starmer: is he a Labour Labour Party Leader?

From the very beginning, and despite a massive majority in terms of number of Members of Parliament representing, the Labour Party has been struggling and will presumably continue to struggle.

None other than Keir Starmer is asking whoever remains loyal to the leadership not to vote for the fuel winter allowance that benefits pensioners in the United Kingdom. Keir Starmer want to get rid of it and cannot trust his own MPs. This week in the House of Commons, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Independents and presumably several Labour Party MPs might vote against the Labour goveernment. What will happen is tens of Labour MPs vote against the Labour government? Will they all be suspended?

Speaking openly and directly, many now former Labour voters and former Labour Party supporters are saying the Labour Party is no longer a Labour Party and talking about voting for other political parties because the Labour Party does not represent them anymore.

If Labour Party grassroots turn against the Labour Party, who knows what could happen at the next elections. There will be Council Elections across London in 2026 and guess what.... Keir Starmer's constituency is a London constituency. If as a reaction Labour voters across Greater London turn against the Labour Party the situation will be not just uncomfortable, but also very difficult in political terms. There will also be by-elections coming up. The political honeymoon is over even before the first budget is announced.

Wednesday, July 17th 2024 - State Opening of British Parliament

 

On Wednesday, July 17th, 2024, a new era in British politics begins with the official Opening of Parliament in the United Kingdom. 

A new Prime Minister with a massive number of MPs to back him up - 412 - faces a completely different environment. Conservatives down and Liberal Democrats with a massive increase of seats. 

The State Opening of Parliament takes place in the House of Lords with the reading of a full package of policies and iniatiatives that the new administration intends to implement from now until the next General Election, supposedly due in 2029. And there is another ingredient in the new Parliament which is the presence of a new player - Reform - with Nigel Farage and Richard Tice at the helm. This should increase the pressure on the new government - pressure that has been perhaps temporarily reduced by a massively reduce presence of Conservative MPs.

But nothing should be taken for granted. As a political commentator stated, big majorities in Parliament can also be a huge nightmare for the man on the chair as Prime Minister. The fact that the Conservative Party has still to name a Leader after the resignation of Rishi Sunak MP, might provide some relief to the new Labour Administration.

And what about the process to choose a new Conservative Party Leader. Despite calls for MPs not to engage in blood letting exercises, the strength of feelings and strong personalities in the Conservative Party, and given the fact that non elected and non-reelected politicians will have a strong influence in the decision making process, could lead precisely to a fight without quarters. 

Humza Yousaf: an earthquake in Scottish politics and UK politics

 

Humsa Yousaf: an earthquake in Scottish politics and UK politics

From Alex Salmond, through Nicola Sturgeon to Humza Yousaf, the SNP was a different SNP every step of the way. The surge of the Alba Party was part of this voyage.

Practically from the very beginning, Alex Salmond was telling us that Scotland could be independent and self-financing with Scottish oil and gas resources. That was his fighting card. 

The arrival of Nicola Sturgeon (and of her husband now facing fraud charges) made people believe that Nicola Sturgeon could get things done and she was the darling of the mass media until her fall that some say was motivated by pressures related to a fraud investigation. She also made the ill fated decision to have a coalition with the Green Party that brought in very unsavoury policies in terms of energy and of gender politics, something that was questioned outright by Scottish voters that started to turn their backs on the SNP.

Events outside the United Kingdom and markedly the crisis in the Middle East had a negative impact, once again, because the ethnicity and religion card has been played over and over again. The Zionist Movement could not possibly accept a Muslim leader, critical of events in the Middle East. So the fall of Humza Yousaf has been caused by a cocktail of reasons and the choice of a new leader will tells in which direction Scotland is moving and in which direction British politics is moving with Muslim increasingly disenchanted that do not trust that there is a valid expression of their views and needs in British politics.

There are already signs that in the future British politics will be about ethnic politics and very little about real British needs. Angela Merkel, speaking about Germany, publicly said 'Multikulti ist tot' (Multiculturalism is dead). The same will now apply to British politics. 

War Readiness: Where is the money? Where is the infra-structure?

The debate in the House of Commons about Britain's readiness to go to war with few of the theoretical 650 MPs in attendance was quite elighhtening about the real state of the British Armed Forces. Britain is spending 2.1% of its budget in Defense and given the present situation in terms of being really and trully ready for any massive conflict, the amount to be spent would be not less than 15% and this includes cutting down the budget for health, education and other areas of the British budget. To put it mildly, it would be really and truly impossible.

So all the statements made by the British Prime Minister and other Members of the Cabinet are a lot of hot air, a pretense that is not based on real possibilities.

George Galloway and the SNP told things as they are. The total number of members of the Armed Forces could be put in Wembley Stadium. Britain has no real war industries. The Armed Forces are not only facing a recruitment crisis generated in part by British foreign policy, but also by the way Britain treats those who dare to become members of the Armed Forces.

Unfortunately, such a debate did not make headlines for the BBC, Sky News or any other mass media that keep broadcasting incessantly the pretense statements made by the Prime Minister, the Secretary of State for Defense and others. Nobody is asking questions that should be asked in the country as whole. At times, it feels like very few people care about it. 

Conservative government: What next?

 Conservative Government: What next?

Since the days of Boris Johnson and in spite of then then 80 seat majority, the Conservative Administration has been plagued by both issues that they could not possible foresee and control and by situations that arose because of measures they took that turned into yet another crisis.

The Covid Pandemic declared in March 2020 put everybody to the test and lockdown measures adopted to apparently tackle the pandemic generated a whole new series of issues, increasing divisions within the Conservative Government. It was about 'Lockdown or no Lockdown'. 

The start of declared hostilities in Ukraine was yet another test. Sanctions against the Russian Federation backfired and produced an energy crisis that destabilized the British Economy. The long standing stability with low prices and low interest rates gave way to higher interest rates and higher prices that in turn produced a series of strikes and forced the government to add more protection measures on top of the protective measures adopted during Lockdown to prevent a sudden rise in unemployment due to lack of economic activity.

Once the government started to regain control the crisis in Palestine opened a whole new can of worms. The fact that people immediately took sides reflects the tribal nature of Britain and this, unavoidably, led to yet another reshuffle to try and have some kind of equilibrium both in national terms and in terms of geopolitics.

All the way, from Covid, going through Lockdown, sanctions against the Russian Federation that led to rising inflation and the present issues involving Palestine, fractures within political parties became fairly visible. It is like walking on a high rope without a balancing pole. As the saying goes, 'keep your friends close and your foes even closer'. Loyalties are being tested to destruction. If Britain were to be involved in a real war tomorrow morning, this is a government that is struggling to survive until the next General Election due to take place in May 2024 and that will not be capable of dealing with war at home and war abroad. What would a General Election in 2024 achieve? For starters, it could be change, even if it is change for change sake. Having said that, when you look at what is happening across the home nations, political realities are much too complex to be able to foresee what the outcome of a General Election would be. 

North of the border, at times it looks like the SNP will collapse. At times it looks like any expectations about the demise of the SNP are very much an exaggeration. In Wales, the Labour administration might be unpopular, but then people might decide to stick to what they have got for fear of worse political realities. In Northern Ireland, political paralysis is a reality with Sinn Fein winning spaces and without a cross party agreement to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In England, the mainstream political parties are fragmented depending on what are the most important issues according to regions.

There are far too many issues that generate divisions both in terms of national politics and of international politics. You cannot promise one thing to please one side without alienating another side and you don't have the luxury of being vague in terms of where you stand politically.

Devolution: has it worked?

In 1997, Tony Blair and the New Labour Administration came up with Devolution. The solution to all problems ended in nightmare. The Welsh Assembly controlled by Labour has made a mess of things. The Scottish Parliament has been the source of a never ending series of scandals and bad governance. 

Standards in terms health and education have fallen steadily and division within the ruling SNP have led to the SNP losing support and even to SNP MPs tempted to change sides to the point that just a few days ago a SNP MP joined the Conservative Party.

In Northern Ireland, things are not better. Once again, the Northern Ireland Assembly seem destined to be non operational with Westminster have to exercise what to all effects is direct rule, something that the Good Friday Agreement involving shared power sought to avoid.

We now face various sets of elections in coming May 2024. General Election in the United Kingdom, London Assembly Election and elections involved the so called Devolved Authorities, apart from other local elections.

May 2024 could be a whole set of changes within the United Kingdom, but the political realities might be somewhat different of what many have come to expect. In spite of the fact that many will still be voting on the basis of their political allegiances, many will be willing to change sides and vote for parties that they have never supported before.

There is dissent between parties, but also dissent within political parties. The purge carried out by Keir Starmer may come to haunt him. Many traditional Labour voters do not like Keir Starmer at all. In fact, they seem him as the enemy within. For certain regions, certain issues will take priority and they have proven that they are more than willing to vote for a specific issue and against the political party that they used to support. Immigration will be a huge factor in the coming elections. Anybody promoting open borders will find herself or himself cut off from public opinion.

Scotland: Was associating itself directly with the Independence Movement a faux pas?

 

Was the fact that the Independence Movement was directly linked to the SNP a serious mistake?

The Scottish National Party and its newly adopted leader and successor of Nicola Sturgeon are in deep waters. Their management of Scotland has left a lot to be desired and has somehow come to be seen as what would happen to Scotland if Scotland were to become independent. Management of health and education - to name two vital sectors of any economy - has been an unmitigated disaster. The association of SNP with the Greens as a way to remain in power has led to disastrous policy making as a way to keep the coalition going.

Long gone are the days when Alex Salmond, the most successful Scottish National Party Leader, used to tell everybody that Scottish oil resources would ensure a strong Scottish economy that would be independent from the rest of the United Kingdom. In a move to remain Socialists without being attached to what they called the English Labour Party, the Scots gave preeminence to the Scottish Green Party and Net Zero did the rest to undermine what had been until a more or less credible stance. 

The poison chalice for Nicola Sturgeon as Leader was on the surface her stance on Gender Politics and suddenly, she was stricken by a series of scandals around financial impropriety. Her way out - and her resignation as Leader was planned as a way to avoid a major crisis that could have sunk the SNP even lower - was designed as a way to disappear. No sooner she was out as leader, a political storm was unleashed.

Humza Yousaf was chosen as scapegoat. He was supposed to be Nicola Sturgeon's heir apparent. He did not inherit her power. She threw him to the wolves and now he faces the inevitable. If his first time as leader is to lose to the Labour Party opening the way back for Labour into Scottish politics, will he survive? The Scottish National Party is extremely factional. In fact, the SNP has been at war with itself not just in Scotland, but most visibly in Westminster.

The SNP should have seen that by closely associating itself with the Independence Movement all it has done is to push backwards the Independence project. The Scottish people have just realised that when it comes to health, education and the economy in general the SNP has not delivered and it cannot deliver precisely because of its close association with the Scottish Green Party.

You cannot base your calculations on fossil fuel energy while at the same time talk about getting rid of fossil fuels. It makes no sense. I can't possibly make sense. If anything, it has increased economic dependency. The point might come when Devolution itself will be questioned.  

 

If Gulf Stream collapses, welcome to the Ice Age

 

Nowadays, folks are complaing about unusually high temperatures. Well, their concerns could soon be unfounded as there are predictions that as early as 2025 the Gulf Stream will collapse plunging Europe into a new Ice Age.

This will mean that very soon Britain and Europe will be covered by massive layers of ice and that Europe and much of Africa will be united by ice. There won't be any navigation and migration problems affecting Britain and Europe will come to an end. Who will want to come and live in areas that will have 60 degrees of more below zero. Magically, all those talking about Net Zero will automatically get it. We will not have to worry about the Bank of England raising interest, there will be no banking system, no dinghies crossing the Channel, no religious conflicts, because because there will be no Christians, no Muslims, no Jews or people of any other religion because they will simply be unable to remain in Britain and in Europe.

There was a time during the Ice Ages that Britain was under hundreds of meters of ice that one such time might be approaching pretty fast. It is said that the Gulf Stream collapsed and re-started several times during Earth's evolution. Imagine a time when there will no Labour Party, no SNP, no Just Stop Oil, no people sleeping rough on the streets and that if anybody tried to sleep rough on the streets there would be no streets as the entire land would be under hundreds of meters of ice.

I find the news about the soon to be collapse of the Gulf Stream absolutely wonderful. We need renewal. We need change for the better. If people themselves are unable or unwilling to change their ways, then Nature will do it for them. Imagine a world without Gary Lineker, without Coutts, without BBC. Absolutely marvellous.

Can Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage create a new alliance?

 

Can Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage create a new alliance?

As the Conservative Party stands today, commentators believe that the outcome of the 2024 General Election is a given: Keir Starmer as new British Prime Minister and Rishi Sunak to follow Liz Truss on the way out.

It is also said that the SNP stands to lose the next General Election thus given the Labour Party MP seats that it needs to win the General Election.

Now, it the success of Keir Starmer a given. There are many doubters within Labour ranks that don't see that Keir Starmer has traditional labour values at heart. The campaign against Jeremy Corbyn made Keir Starmer some friends, but also many enemies. And what about the A team of the Labour Party? Is it really an A team.

Another factor to be taken into consideration is that Scottish Nationalism might be stronger than many commentators like to think, such levels of emotion regarding independence that will make may Scottish voters who could be reluctant to support SNP the strength to ignore SNP's many failures for the sake of keeping the campaign towards independence going. If this is the case, then Labour might collect some seats, but the SNP might be able to maintain its electoral force. The Greens that have been SNP allies might benefit by allowing SNP to keep its mandate in Scotland while extracting, at the same time, some more concessions in terms of the environmental agenda. A bit like the Greens in Germany entered a coalition with SPD to allow Olaf Scholz to form a coalition.

There are already three test in the immediate future that the Conservative Party must face. One is the seat of the now Former Prime Minister and Former MP in Uxbridge. Another is the seat of Nadine Dorris. And yet another is Nigel Adams' seat. Uxbridge is a marginal seat. The bar in terms of losing Uxbridge is very low. Thus should Boris Johnson's supporters decide to abstain the seat will be lost. Conservative voters will have to decide regarding Nadine Dorris' seat and Nigel Adams' seat. Will Conservative voters decide to punish Prime Minister Rishi Sunak by abstaining? 

In the coming days, should there be more resignations, Rishi Sunak's leadership will be under enormous strain. After the rout of recent local elections, losing three or more by-elections, and this on top of MPs - some from the so called Red Wall - that have not decided to stand for election in 2024, could lead to the unthinkable, but some say that the unthinkable for the Conservative Party will be like committing harakiri. the unthinkable has been defined as yet another leadership contest within the Conservative Party to replace Rishi Sunak. It was Boris Johnson that made the seemingly impossible happen. Boris Johnson as leader managed to persuade Labour Party supports to support the Conservative Party. The Red Wall successes were due to Boris Johnson's leadership and voters feel betrayed.

Some commentors say that many Conservative MPs did not wish to resign because it would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for Christmas. Let us be reminded that this is not happening right at the beginning of a Conservative administration. They would not be turkeys voting for Christmas because Christmas will happen anyway in May 2024.

If Boris Johson comes to an agreement with Nigel Farage, the Conservative Party could be a goner even before the next General Election. Rishi Sunak is not seen as a leader, but as an administrator. Given what is happening, Rishi Sunak could be a defined as a Caretaker Prime Minister. It must be remembered that Rishi Sunak was not elected by the Electorate and on top of that Rishi Sunak was not elected by Conservative Party members either. He is also remembered as the man who rebeled against Boris Johnson and was part of a coup to unseat Boris Johnson. It woul also be said that his reluctance to support Boris Johnson against what has been qualified as a witchhunt was a calculated effort to get rid of Boris Johson. It would very difficult for Rish Sunak to appeal for party loyalty.

10 Downing Street: If you talk the language of war, you need to prepare for war

 

Inconsistencies when dealing with geopolitical situations will get an unnecessary number of people killed simply because of complaisancy.

We heard harsh words coming out of the lips of Western European politicians including British politicians, but they do not reflect reality. It is absolutely shambolic.

Britain is open. It cannot even control the number of illegal immigrants entering the country. It has an NHS that almost collapsed under the weight of a Covid pandemic. None other than the Metropolitan Police Service is now run under special measures because of systemic failures that led, among other things, to the resignation of its chief commander Cressida Dick. Police officers are more interested in kneeling down and in joining every single cranky demonstration of political correctness than in doing their work properly.

For many years, both Labour and Conservative governments neglected the Armed Forces to the point when they were found wanting more than once and forced to play second fiddle. Pomp and Circumstance and posturing will not protect Britain let alone win any wars. 

We are now in an impasse. The country does not have a Prime Minister and does not have a government. We cannot call Prime Minister a man that has been backstabbed by his own political party and a government in which members of the goverment don't see eye to eye. Boris Johnson himself has said that no fundamental piece of legislation will be put forward until there is a clear definition of who is actually in control of the British government and there is a return to a debate of all issues that were already decided. This is like fighting a war on several fronts or to put it in very straightforward manner it is a recipe for disaster. In times of danger, politicians are simply driven by their own fatal habits and nothing good can come out of it.

A country facing war should not be divided. Nicola Sturgeon cares more about her own agenda than she cares about the survival of Britain. In fact, she does not give a damn about the survival of Britain and she is playing right into the hands of the enemies of Britain. The Americans, as usual, are poking their noses in internal matters of other countries and creating a mess. Northern Ireland, once again, does not have a working Assembly and at a time when 10 Downing Street is a mess and Parliament is a mess, short of having direct rule in Northern Ireland, the people of Northern Ireland are stranded with a non working Assembly and a British Parliament that is not just limited by Devolution. We are travelling on a rudderless ship. All Devolution has achieved is the creation of platforms to destroy the United Kingdom: a Northern Ireland without governance, a Wales controlled by the Labour Party, a Scotland controlled by SNP, a Westminster Parliament that has become a political circus and a Prime Minister defeated by his own political party.  

 

Labour Party: Keir Starmer cannot have the cake and eat it?

So Keir Starmer says that Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic. Well, why did he suspend Jeremy Corbyn in the first place? Has this statement have something to do with MPs talking about leaving the Labour Party and becoming independents? He wanted the Leadership and used the anti-Semitism argument to push Jeremy Corbyn aside. Now, he realises that he could become the Leader of a political party that could have less MPs than the SNP. The Labour Party lost MPs because of the Brexit argument. After that, the Labour Party lost much of its heartland MPs. If Keir Starmer cannot bring the Labour Party together, the next General Election would be a walkover. It is not the first time the Labour Party finds itself facing a political divorce and the outcome could be very similar.

If after the verdict of the verdict on anti-Semitism blaming the office of Jeremy Corbyn, Keir Starmer states that 'Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic' then the charges fall on the shoulders of those who supported Jeremy Corbyn. This is like stating that Jeremy Corbyn was a bad leader that was completely unaware of what was being done by those close to him.

If after stating the Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic Jeremy Corbyn remains suspended, then who is a bad leader? It would mean that Keir Starmer is ready and willing to sacrify innocent people. If Jeremy Corbyn's suspension is annuled then other heads would have to roll to fit the ruling according to the charges made against the office of Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn might not be willing to shoot himself in the foot by destroying his power base. Either way, it would mean admitting that his political career is over because this is exactly the outcome that awaits him if he turns against his own supporters.

This is a lose-lose situation for both Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer. A Leadership Election would have to be called to bring in other alternatives and this includes somebody with a profile high enough to stand up in a General Election and to solve the Labour Party's internal problems.

Huawei and fears about economic warfare

Huawei and fear of economic warfare

Real fears about Huawei have nothing to do with National Security or espionage. Fears about Huawei are about economics and the fact that now Chinese companies like Huawei can outbid any Western company at international level when bidding for contracts.

Nokia and Ericsson could hardly compete with Huawei in terms of getting things better at a lower price and at a time when even countries like UK are having to look very carefully at the monies they spend, Huawei will undoubtedly have the upper hand. While the EU and others have to deal with regulations regarding competition and subsidies, Chinese companies don't have to worry about lack of subsidies. The biggest foreign debt is the US Foreign Debt and China is one of its main creditors - if not the biggest creditor of the USA. If China were to mobilize the monies the USA owes to China, there would enough capital to over-run and outpace any Western company. Therefore, the issue is not about espionage. The issue is about economic warfare. China can buy whatever it wants to buy, but the West cannot afford to sell strategic assets to China. This is why the USA and other Western countries are claiming that there are issues of National Security. They cannot openly say that this is merely about economic warfare. They try and implement higher tariffs against Chinese exports, but if China buys into the USA and into the said countries the said investments would not be exports but national and local investments that will not be affected by tariffs on exports.

Today, it is about who controls the telecommunications industries. Tomorrow, it will be about heavy industries or food production. Why using any other means when you can buy countries directly? In a world of services, communications have crucial importance. Whoever controls the communications market has the upper hand when it comes to the rest of the economy. 

For the USA, repatriating jobs is not the same as allowing foreign companies to buy the USA. Awarding contracts to Ericsson looks like a safer bet than awarding the same conttracts to Huawei. This is not about National Security. This is about - once again - about economic warfare. Using the words of President Clinton, 'it's the economy, stupid.' 

The Conservative Party promised in its manifesto that it would develop communications networks in the UK to provide services to even the most remote community in the United Kingdom. It will be a costly exercise. They know that the prices demanded by Western companies will be much higher that the prices asked for by Huawei. Money makes the world go around. If you can pay less for better services, you can then have more monies for others projects including Trident and HS2. You can have more monies to provide advantages to Labour voters that chose to vote Conservative in the 2019 General Election. Behind the decision made by Prime Minister Boris Johnson there is a lot of strategic thinking. If he can get Huawei to deliver faster and cheaper what he promised in the 2019 Manifesto, those who can access new and faster services at a fraction of the cost will think more about having affordable and reliable services. 

United Britain: the task ahead

United Britain: the task ahead

After Brexit, the task is to reinforce the unity of the United Kingdom by putting in place policies that show regions of the United Kingdom - apart from the Southeast - that they do matter.

The rise of the SNP didn't happen overnight. Firstly, the Conservatives lost Scotland in 1997. After that, Labour and Liberal Democrats lost Scotland. But then Scotland was not alone. North/South Divide is a reality and then we reach Northern Ireland that has been treated as the poor cousin.

London/Southeast centric United Kingdom cannot go on. Unless the new Conservative government manages to do something extraordinary to create opportunities for all,  

When Boris Johnson suggested the construciton of a bridge to unite Northern Ireland and the UK mainland, many jumped in to criticize the British Prime Minister.Well, soonafter Crime rejoined the Russian Federation, the Russian President Vladimir Putin embarked on the construction of a bridge to join Crime and the mainland of the Russian Federation. The construction of a bridge would send a direct message to every nation of the United Kingdom and to the world as a whole. 

Will the Conservative government have the sense and the stamina to carry out such a task without repeating the same mistakes that Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats made that led to the present status quo?

It is not an easy task with so many interests that want to break apart the United Kingdom. Some of those interests are linked to internal divisions. Others are foreign and rooted in the European Union that fears the rise of Britain as a serious competitor. The old historical divisions have not gone away. In the end, Germany is Germany and France is France and Germany and France happen to be the main drivers of the European Union. When the time comes, what is going to be on the negotiation table is not the interests of the EU but the interests of the main powers within the EU. And as long as this is the case the future of the EU itself will hang in the balance.

Britain is pulled by blocks and geopolitical realities and very often against British interests. Brexit should mean a truly independent Britain with its own set of foreing policies. The Conservative government will be judged because of its successes at national level and because of its actions in the international arena., 

Brexit: Then and Now

Brexit: Then and Now

In ten days time, Britain will be on its way to be as it was before entering the Common Market. Will it be like it was before entering the Common Market?

So much has happened in more than 40 years. There has been a demographic revolution and London - its capital city - is completely unrecognizable. The Monarchy itself is unrecognizable. We have had Harry-exit. Diana's boy is now in Canada, without a Royal title. SNP seems to rule Scotland and is threatening to break up the United Kingdom. Let us remember another earthquake that happened in the United Kingdom in the 1920, the partition of Ireland and the creation of two separate entities - the Republic of Ireland in the south and the Province of Northern Ireland in the north. A hundred years later, we are witnessing events that have generated realities that we couldn't possibly have imagined thirty years ago.

But when it comes to surprising changes, Britain is not alone. The European Continent is on the move and significant political developments are taking place. 

Merkel, Medvedev, Schroeder

Germany is also unrecognizable. CDU/CSU is faltering and Alternative für Deutchland and Grünen are rising stars. In France, Emannuel Macron - the opportunity candidate that rose to power as to prevent National Front (Now National Rally) from winning the French Presidential Election is facing war as discontent rises. As the Socialists were on the way out, the French Centre Right faced the unthinkable and had to create a fantasy on the back of a massive propaganda effort.

Brexit is not the main issue, Europe is facing. Much more serious developments are on the way. Unfortunately, and perhaps in a premeditated manner, the mass media have their own agenda and they don't report about certain events to the point that when something dramatic happens it seems to have come from nowhere.

Britain: Will Scotland declare independence unilaterally?

Britain: Will Scotland declare independence unilaterally?

The Brexit earthquake just happened but there are tremors in Scotland with QC stating that Scottish Parliament could call a Referendum without the authorization of the Westminster Parliament. 

Whether it is legal or illegal for Scotland to declare independence is irrelevant. What is relevant is the question of what could happen if Scotland were to unilaterally declare independence. In the years after the 2016 Referendum on EU Membership, the movement towards Scottish independence has been reinforced by a General Election in which SNP has reaffirmed its position as the party of Scotland going against what happened in other parts of the United Kingdom where the Conservative Party won in Labour Party heartlands.

The present crisis in the British Monarchy doesn't help. For many years, the Monarchy has been the glue that kept together the United Kingdom. A weaker Monarchy is a recipe for trouble. In geopolitical terms, Scotland is moving towards EU while the rest of Britain is in limbo. For the moment, at least some kind of balance has been in Northern Ireland with the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Trying to keep the United Kingdom in its present form by force could lead to civil war. But if the use of force is out of the question, how would people on both sides of the border react if the Scottish Parliament decides to call a Referendum or decides to declare independence unilaterally. In the 1920s, there was the partition of Ireland giving birth to the Republic of Ireland in the south of Ireland and the Province of Northern Ireland in the north of Ireland. A century later, could this be the time for Scotland?

 

Royal Family: The rift between William and Harry has now been made official

Royal Family: The rift between William and Harry has now been made official

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/12/prince-william-harry-and-i-are-now-separate-entities

Since the abdication of Prince Edward (later known as Duke of Windsor), this is the most crucial event in the life of the Royal Family. The glamour and romantic aura are over. Now comes reality.

Reality knocks when one Labour Party contender calls for the abolition of the Monarcy and another calls for the abolition of the House of Lords - two of the pillars of the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom has been kept as one thanks to the Monarchy. Without it, it will be England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland playing separate roles. The union can survive other kinds of political upheavals, but the union would not survive the fall of the Monarchy. Centuries of common history would come to an end.

Why is this happening? Because the Labour Party is in tatters and is in denial and SNP is using the present circumstances to achieve its lifelong mission of destroying the United Kingdom.

In politics, the issue is to have candidates that can perform

In politics, the issue is to have candidates that can perform

A politician is a salesman that sells ideas and strive to meet up expectations. Voters look at the salesman. Is he a credible salesman? They listen to what that the salesman says and ponder about how likely the salesman is to deliver what he promises to deliver. They might like or dislike what is on offer. If they dislike what is on offer, they might go against it and if they like what is on offer they might even disregard their first impression about the salesman (or salewoman).

The Liberal Democrats had been all over the place and in the spate of a few years have had more leaders that there were General Elections. Correct me if I forget all the names. After Paddy Ashdown came Charles Kennedy, Sir Menzies Campbell, Vince Cable, Nick Clegg, Tim Farron, Sir Vince Cable, Jo Swinson, Baroness Sal Brighton, Sir Ed Davey, and Mark Pack? For the duration of one Parliament they were in power in coalition with the Conservatives under David Cameron.

The Liberal Democrats - with a few exceptions - defined themselves as pro-EU. After the 2016 Referendum, the made themselves one of the stumbling blocks in the quest for Brexit. They desperately pursued the possibility of a Second Referendum with the hope of keeping Britain in the European Union. When that failed to cristalize, they went for a General Election that they strongly believed would give them what they wanted but from the start the struggle to reach an agreement with other political forces to overcome party political differences. They divided the Remain Camp because they couldn't possibly reach an agreement with Jeremy Corbyn. The fact that several Labour MPs and several Conservative MPs decided to join them was not an incentive to reach such agreement. She went as a far as saying that she would go against Article 50 and de-facto keep Britain in the European Union despite the outcome of the 2016 Referendum on EU Membership. This last act signalled the beginning of the end for Jo Swinson's leadership. The British Electorate could possibly stomach the idea of a Second Referendum. They couldn't possibly support somebody that talked about getting rid of the Article 50 straight away.

The issue for Scottish voters - Jo Swinson was at the time a Scottish MP - was to decide between an SNP that openly stood for Remain and also for Scottish Independence and a Liberal Democrat MP that stood for Remain but against Scottish Independence. The political fate of Jo Swinson was sealed. She lost her seat and as a direct consequence of losing her seat she could not continue as Lib Dem leader.

Voters didn't like the saleswoman, didn't believe that the saleswoman could deliver what she was offering and many even didn't like what she was offering. In the process, every single Labour MP and every single Conservative MP that defected to Lib Dems lost their seats. Even the possibility of a hang Parliament eluded them. 

The agony for both Lib Dems and Labour is self-evident. For Labour, as some Labour representatives have publicly stated, the aim is to restore public faith. The party is a divided as before. It is difficult to find a unity candidate. London set itself apart from the rest of the Labour movement when Labour voters outside London decided that the only possible choice was to support the Conservative Party.

To say that the Labour Party has a mountain to climb would be a historic understatement. As long as whoever replaces Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a representative of the Jeremy Corbyn lobby, the Labour Party will struggle to recover.

Now, all eyes look towards the 2020 May Elections and in particular towards the London Mayoral Election in which an opponent of Jeremy Corbyn - Sadiq Khan - is likely to win a second mandate. Given the absence of candidates visibly able to unseat Sadiq Khan, the London Mayoral Election could serve to unite a very divided Labour Party.

Do you see Sadiq Khan as potential Labour Party leader? Nobody mentions Andy Burnham - present Mayor of Greater Manchester. Former Member of Parliament and former Cabinet Minister and a likeable individual far detached from Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and one of the centre-left politicians born in Liverpool - a northerner. If the Labour Party has any hope of bringing back traditional labour voters into the fold, choosing a man from Liverpool with proven political record would not be a bad choice. Sadiq Kahn would appeal to London. Andy Burham would appeal to the country as a whole. 

Whoever is chosen now as leader could end up being the leader of a party forever in opposition but if the struggle ends up being a war between London and the rest of the country the Labour Party will have to decide between being a political party for London or being a political party for Britain. 

 

Brexit: Labour at war trying to expel Labour MP in Scotland

Brexit: Labour at war trying to expel Labour MP in Scotland

While Jeremy Corbyn tries to block Brexit by voting against the deal negotiated with the European Union and also votes against the Programme Motion once the House of Commons voted in favour of the deal, a Labour MP who is against Brexit is about to be thrown out by the Labour Party, expulsion promoted by Unite.

It seems that there isn't enough with the profound distrust of the Leadership of the Labour Party. There isn't enough with hatred against Jews in the Labour Party. Now, they are talking about throwing out even those who in theory should be kept in the Labour Party because they share the views of the Leader of the Labour Party on the EU. 

The Labour Party Leader is as detached from the realities of Britain as he is detached from the views of his own political party. Despite threatening his MPs with a three-line whip, 19 of his MPs support the deal agreed with the European Union. And for individuals like Hillary Benn MP that is the author of what became the Benn Act, well.... the Prime Minister delivered a deal and the deal was approved by the House of Commons. Now, in despair, Jeremy Corbyn is trying to have a new Referendum. Why not a General Election? Because he knows that he doesn't command the views of his own political party and he is right in the middle, in a very unconfortable position.

The Conservative Party is the party of Brexit. The Liberal Democratic Party is the party of Remain. And under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership the Labour Party has become the party of nothing and the promoter of ideas that goes against everything Britain stands for. Banning private education? Supporting the enemies of Britain and risking to build barriers against the main ally of the United Kingdom namely the United States of America. Misguided on national politics. Misguided on geopolitcs. This basically sums up Jeremy Corbyn.

Brexit: When you change one part of a deal you create a different deal.

Brexit: When you change one part of a deal you create a different deal

John McDonnell can talk about Customs Union as much as he wants but the fact remains that when you change one part of a deal that has already been agreed you change the deal and therefore have to return to the negotiations table and this menas yet another delay. What does another delay mean for the European Union? It means a delay in the proceeding, blocking the European Commission, leaving the European Parliament in the dark about who is and who isn't a Member of the European Parliament. The amount of time spent by EU authorities in negotiation after negotiation is time that the EU has not spent in other more fundamental issues for the European Union. John McDonnell, as other Labour MPs, is doing this not because of Brexit but because he has a political agenda to throw a spanner in the works with the belief that this would put him and his party in a better position come a General Election.

The SNP has a very public agenda. For the SNP, Britain is not what matters. For the SNP what matters is Scottish Independence to be achieved regardless of whatever happens to the United Kingdom. What hasn't enter the SNP's minds is that should Scotland become independent Scots will be foreigners in what remains in the United Kingdom and therefore a border will have to be erected across the border with England that will prevent freedom of movement of Scottish citizens. They will. have to have Scottish passports and apply for a visa to enter England or any other part of the United Kingdom. They will have to have their own currency supported by their own Scottish bank. They will have to have their own Armed Forces and they will lose all contracts and benefits they have at the moment as an integral part of the United Kingdom.

For the Liberal. Democrats, everything is about winning and elusive General Election. They became the fourth political party after the SNP and they are now rejoicing because rogue members of other political parties decided to join them. The question is: how long will happiness last? When a General Election comes those who chose to joined the Liberal Democrats might find themselves out of Parliament.

For the DUP, there is a very clear threat. If there was a General Election today in Northern Ireland, there is no guarantees that they will keep or increase the number of DUP MP in Westminster. In the wilderness, the DUP will have little say in Westminster and no say at all in Northern Ireland because the Northern Ireland Assembly has been paralized for the last three years when Sinn Fein IRA in violation of the Good Friday Agreement decided to leave the Northern Ireland Assembly. Sinn Fein IRA doesn't want Northern Ireland to exist. They want to annex Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland. For the DUP, there is a double wammy effect. The DUP doesn't like Abortion and doesn't like Same Sex Marriages. Because there isn't a functioning Northern Ireland Assembly, the Westminster Parliament in what constitutes de-facto Direct Rule imposed in Northern Ireland Abortion and Same Sex Marriages because there is no Northern Ireland Assembly that could oppose Abortion and Same Sex Marriages.

Rebel Conservative MPs are just playing into the hands of the Labour Party, a Labour Party that is divided and of which many Labour MPs don't want Jeremy Corbyn as Leader because of the danger of him becoming Prime Minister.

The only deal that could be put to the vote in a Referendum is the original deal that has the approval of both EU and UK and, even so, the European Union Parliament will only consider the deal that has been agreed by both EU and UK. As stated at the beginning, if you change one part of a deal you change the entire deal and this would lead to a new process of negotiations. Further delays for the United Kingdom and further delays for the EU that in the meantime will have no budget and will be facing UK Veto in the European Commission.