Shoemaker makes Shoes: Something that does not apply to the present government

When you have people who have never ever been in business and don't have a clue about running a business, when you have people making decisions about farming when the closest they have been to managing a farm is standing near the shelves of a supermarket, you know that the country is in trouble.

Ideology does not replace knowledge and expertise, but we have got politicians driven by blind ideology deciding what is best for the country. So, if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong.

First thing you learn about economics is that the closest the factory is to raw materials the lower production costs will be, but then comes Ed Miliband and decides to prevent new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

How old was he when Britain was going over the edge because of lack of oil and gas? In the 1970s, Britain was saved by the discovery of oil and gas in the North Sea, but now the all knowledgeable Marxist politician wants to prevent any more exploration for oil and gas.

Britain buys already too much foodstuff abroad so reducing the number of farms on British soil will force Britain to buy even more foodstuff abroad as population keeps growing. What does Labour do? Implements tax measures that will put more and more farms out of business thus reducing production in the United Kingdom.

Every step of the way, Labour policies are based on ignorance, ideological hatred and misconceptions and the alternative is, as it always have been, to borrow more and to produce less. When Labour talks about growth, Labour is not talking about economic growth. Labour is talking about indebtedness growth. And then when they can borrow no more, they will propose massive cuts that will leave people ever poorer.

The consequences of economic mismanagement will be worse than the Covid Pandemic and the energy crisis combined and this could become a very long Winter of Discontent that will end up with tears, and even spilt blood.

Here came the budget: Main target NHS and Second target the economy and particularly interest rates and growth.

The general thinking is that the Labour government will inflict pain earlier with the hope that near the next General Election the numbers will be much better to produce good feelings amongst voters. But this is a gamble by a government that publicly stated that if they had not inherited interest rates that were already going down the present announcements about borrowing could not have been made. 

Everything is based on the presumption that the economy will improve, that interest rates will go down and that repaying the borrowing will become easier. Another factor is promised improvements of the NHS. If the economy does not improve and if improvements promised regarding the NHS are not delivered then this would be a double political wammy that could bring down the present government at the next General Election.

The hope is that no crise like the Covid Pandemic or the energy crise generated by sanctions implemented against the Russian Federation or anything of the sort happens from now until the next General Election. Anything that would require much more borrowing and generate emergency conditions, negatively affecting. the economy, is not welcome. 

Et ceteris paribus? All other things being equal? Expecting that nothing will happen along the way that could change or derail present plans is a very negligent attitude. Things are bound to change. There are crucial ongoing conflicts and the seeds for more conflicts are being planted.

Now, lets have a look at potential trading partners. What is the situation in Europe? What is the situation in the Americas? What is the situation in Africa and Oceania? What is the situation regarding new players that are rising and increasing mutual cooperation?

The belief that new global associations will remain focused on the East and will not spread towards the West is extremely naive. We now live not in a bipolar world. We live in a multipolar world. In which direction the Americas, Africa, and Oceania will go is not a given. But present trends indicate that BRICS is making inroads. Those joining BRICS happen to be the most populous countries in the world. They also happen to be those which tend to have more resources in terms of raw materials. 

Founding countries? Russian Federation, China, India and Brazil. While the main Western countries have been involved in a rising number of conflicts, China has been spreading financially and economically across key regions of the world. The impopularity of the Western approach when dealing with conflicts is spreading and such impopularity does not benefit Western countries. China has not been involved in any major conflict. In fact, it is gathering more and more influence in countries that are far away from China.

Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 - Budget Day

 

This is personal, stated the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. She refers to realities of the 1980s and 1990s. The Chancellor's efforts to gather capital will drag hundreds of thousands more people into paying tax and even more into higher rates as their pay rises, indicates none other than The Guardian.

Could a personal crusade turn into a nightmare? Changing fiscal rules to disguise debt making it appear as something else does not change the fact that it will still be borrowing. So more taxes and more borrowing that will be increased for public interest, according to the Chancellor.

Ordinary folk and many business were badly hit by the Covid Pandemic and the measures implemented to deal with the Covid Pandemic. After that, people and many business were hit by the energy crise generated by the conflict in Ukraine and the measures adopted against the Russian Federation. 

Now, they stand to be hit again by taxation and potentially higher prices of utilities, housing and daily shopping.

But the Chancellor of the Exchequer still says that she will implement the budget in a way that she will 'protect the living standards of working people'. 

Well, in an interview made in Washington, USA, Rachel Reeves - perhaps inadvertently - made promises that she will have to deliver. If she does not deliver and if the measures implemented by the Labour government become a de facto nightmare, then this will create a widely open door for another Conservative government.

Starting on Wednesday, October 30th, 2024, the government will have to deliver and with every failure, and every new crise, there will be many by-elections along the way in which people will express their discontent.

She talks about building schools and hospitals. Well, what will she do about nurses salaries that are not enough to rent a one bedroom flat? If living costs keep rising, this will be a de facto devaluation of salaries and a worsening of living standards. Before she goes around building schools and hospitals, she will have to look carefully at salaries actually paid to teachers and NHS staff. 

Even with the triple lock, state pensions are not enough to rent a one bedroom flat. State pensions are totally insufficient. Taxing state pensions and private pensions can only worsen an already bad situation. And this is going to do nothing to 'protect living standards'.  

Labour: Cutting consumption with higher taxes, higher utility prices and higher prices in the shops will lead to mass unemployment

 

Even before the first budget is presented in Parliament, the Labour government has cut disposable income with higher taxes, higher utility prices and higher prices in the shops. 

In a reminder of what happened during the Covid Pandemic when lockdowns reduced economic activity dramatically to the point that the then Conservative government had to implement furloughs schemes to try to save ailing companies and prevent massive job losses, the Labour government now seems to intend to cause yet another financial crise.

Cutting disposable income in the United Kingdom while increasing the amount of monies thrown into a foreign bottomless barrel is a strategy for disaster. Money, money, money but not for Britain. Is this a government for the United Kingdom?

In the meantime, Prime Minister Keir Starmer travels around the world, organising new wars and leaving a trail of Pounds as he smiles for television cameras, but.... never mind... private donations for his wife's wardrobe are always welcomed.

When eve supermarket chains like Tesco are closing down branches, you can foresee what the future will be as numbers of cases of shoplifting in supermarkets increase exponentially.

 

Britain: long before the first official budget is published, announcements are not encouraging

As part of point scoring, two digit salary increases are announced for public workers and Union workers while, at the same time, measures to support pensioners are discontinued and new increases of utility bills are announced.

Presumably, in october, we are going to be told about a tax shower. So get your spreadsheets ready because it is going to take some time to calculate how much ordinary britons are gong to be hit with a barrage of taxes and utility bills that sooner than later are going to be reflected on the cost of basic items of the family basket. Nominal values might be going up but real values are going to make you poorer.

We are really and truly talking about a new period of austerity, but this time under a Labour government. The Labour Party played a new version of 'read my lips, no more taxes' and the gullible fell for it. People are going to be taxed to the hilt and beyond. Let's look at rental prices. They were already beyond reach for a growing number of peoples.

If you are going to have even less disposable income, things can only be worse and one of the most worrying bits for any economy is a massive reduction of consumption. Using Covid as an example, if people - deterred by rising taxes and rising utility bills - start consuming less and less then already struggling businesses will go out of business pushing upwards unemployment numbers.

In any case, get your spreadsheets ready. 

Energy Crisis: Who is winning?

 

Covid did damage economies and completely changed lifestyles, but the single most  negative factor for Western Economies was the knee jerk reactions aimed at damaging the Russian Federation that ended up creating hardship, political and social instability in those countries seeking to undermine the Russian Federation.

For those living in the United Kingdom, sanctions against the Russian Federation meant the end of the Paradise of low prices and stable economics. Just when Britain was coming out of the nightmare created by Covid economics, the British government - once again - reacted by impulse instead of using their brains properly. Not enough with mistakes made in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. British politicians had once again to put a foot wrong by jumping on the American bandwagon of failed foreign policies and started to dig an even bigger hole for themselves.

British policies regarding events in Eastern Europe have led to catastrophic realities in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Industrial economies rely on... energy. Something that British politicians completely forgot about it. Germany, thank to Merkel, got into a bigger hole. Why? Merkel's knee jerk reactions regarding nuclear power. What would be the chances of a tsunami hitting German nuclear reactors as it happened in Japan? Zero. Angela Merkel over-reacted and decided to leave Germany totally exposed to an energy crisis having to almost totally depend on fossil fuels. Even France with its nuclear capacity got hit because... France negleted its nuclear infra-structure.

The conflict has been raging for years now and might continue for the foreseeable future, although the USA and Germany are now applying pressure on Ukraine to force Ukraine to seek peace. At the end of the day, it all comes to money and another factor to consider is that today Europe is a lot less safe because of the stupidity of its leaders. As the Western side decided to get dirty by using weapons banned by most countries in the world, the Russian Federation decided that it had enough and passed legislation withdrawing from all nuclear weapons agreements. So now, all gloves are off. This is a situation created by Western warmongers that expected that they could whatever without a rection from the other side. They have used Ukraine in a war by proxy against the Russian Federation and now those who jumped on the warmongers' bandwagon are bound to pay the consequences.

General Winter is coming. The expectation is that all Ukrainian infra-structure will be wiped out, pushing Ukraine back to the Middle Ages.

Conservative government: What next?

 Conservative Government: What next?

Since the days of Boris Johnson and in spite of then then 80 seat majority, the Conservative Administration has been plagued by both issues that they could not possible foresee and control and by situations that arose because of measures they took that turned into yet another crisis.

The Covid Pandemic declared in March 2020 put everybody to the test and lockdown measures adopted to apparently tackle the pandemic generated a whole new series of issues, increasing divisions within the Conservative Government. It was about 'Lockdown or no Lockdown'. 

The start of declared hostilities in Ukraine was yet another test. Sanctions against the Russian Federation backfired and produced an energy crisis that destabilized the British Economy. The long standing stability with low prices and low interest rates gave way to higher interest rates and higher prices that in turn produced a series of strikes and forced the government to add more protection measures on top of the protective measures adopted during Lockdown to prevent a sudden rise in unemployment due to lack of economic activity.

Once the government started to regain control the crisis in Palestine opened a whole new can of worms. The fact that people immediately took sides reflects the tribal nature of Britain and this, unavoidably, led to yet another reshuffle to try and have some kind of equilibrium both in national terms and in terms of geopolitics.

All the way, from Covid, going through Lockdown, sanctions against the Russian Federation that led to rising inflation and the present issues involving Palestine, fractures within political parties became fairly visible. It is like walking on a high rope without a balancing pole. As the saying goes, 'keep your friends close and your foes even closer'. Loyalties are being tested to destruction. If Britain were to be involved in a real war tomorrow morning, this is a government that is struggling to survive until the next General Election due to take place in May 2024 and that will not be capable of dealing with war at home and war abroad. What would a General Election in 2024 achieve? For starters, it could be change, even if it is change for change sake. Having said that, when you look at what is happening across the home nations, political realities are much too complex to be able to foresee what the outcome of a General Election would be. 

North of the border, at times it looks like the SNP will collapse. At times it looks like any expectations about the demise of the SNP are very much an exaggeration. In Wales, the Labour administration might be unpopular, but then people might decide to stick to what they have got for fear of worse political realities. In Northern Ireland, political paralysis is a reality with Sinn Fein winning spaces and without a cross party agreement to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In England, the mainstream political parties are fragmented depending on what are the most important issues according to regions.

There are far too many issues that generate divisions both in terms of national politics and of international politics. You cannot promise one thing to please one side without alienating another side and you don't have the luxury of being vague in terms of where you stand politically.

Ukraine. Will sending obsolete equipment help or hamper war effforts at the same time that raises the stakes?

There is an awareness that equipment sent is obsolete or surplus and that also banned weapons are being sent to a theatre of war thus increasing the risk that all weapons will be allowed including nuclear and chemical weapons.

Let us remember in which year we are: 2023. When were the F16s introduced? 17 August 1978. NATO is sending flying coffins.

The longer the confllict goes on the greater the risk of greater involvement and we must also think about the issue of population movements that can seriously affect host countries. Even if at the beginning of the exodus host countries are willing to show solidarity, sooner than later welcoming attitudes turn to contempt and fatigue.

Poland itself has proposed a referendum on migration to challenge EU policies on migration. Hungary has been pretty open about its unhappiness about huge numbers of migrants coming to Hungary. Within the EU, countries hold different views about migration and especailly after decades of mass migration not just from within Europe, but from far away. 

Migration has political consequences because in the end it is all about social stability and economics. The Covid Pandemic led to lockdown that had a negative widespread effect. This combined with the energy crisis and migration has not made life any easier and suddenly we are having to cope with inflation that is more than double what the Bank of England was expected to manage.

Politicians have a way of manipulating facts regarding migration, pandemics, and any other factors involved, causes and consequences, in a way to suit their own political agendas and this is not helpful at all because, on top of lack of data, they add confusion and instability. This is especially serious when elections are on the horizon. Rationality dies to be replaced by irrationality reinforced by lack of knowledge.

Russian Federation/Israel/SouthAfrica: Sanctions don't affect governments. Sanctions affect people

 

When politicians, mass media and activists call for sanctions against countries, they are actually calling for sanctions against ordinary people. Sanctions against Cuba are not just sanctions against the government of Cuba. They will affect ordinary Cubans. The same goes for the sanctions against South Africa in the days of Apartheid. 

When people talk about sanctions against Israel, they are actually talking about sanctions against ordinary israelis, and the same goes for sanctions against the Russian Federation that would affect ordinary citizens. 

 

In the case of sanctions against the Russian Federation, such sanctions have actually benefitted the Russian Federation leading to foreign companies leaving the Russian Federation and creating the space for local, national companies, to prosper. But even so, there is a point of principle. If you apply sanctions against the Russian Federation then the Russian Federation has every right to counterattack and part of the counterattack is the refusal of the Russian Federation to renew agreements regulating gains exports from Ukraine.

It is self-evident that the USA and its acolytes will willingly sacrifice Ukraine that is being used in a war by proxy. The USA does not want Ukraine membership of NATO for very obvious reasons. They know that such membership in application of article 5 of the treaty will engage every single NATO members in a war of unforeseeable consequences. Turkey is using its approval of such membership to blackmail the EU, to force the EU to open its door, and many EU countries are reluctant to open the door to mass Muslim migration into Europe. We already see what is happening across the EU with mass migration levels. France has just experienced yet another series of very harsh events involving lack of integration. Hundreds of millions of EURO lost in just a few days due to riots. Hungary, especially given Hungary's past, is openly reluctant to accept mass migration and accepting Turkey as EU member will open the floodgates. This is something that Hungary does not want.

Sanctions, migration, the threat of an all-out European war are some of the main subjects of the day. When you look at the State of Israel and what it takes to keep the State of Israel alive, you understand why mass migration is rejected vehemently and you can therefore understand Hungary reluctance to mass migration.

When you are fighting a war for survival, you will seek to deprive your enemy of every possible resource. If grains exports stop, so be it. USA and the so called West have been trying to starve the Russian Federation and the Russian Federation is therefore entitled to deprive its enemies of resources that will be used in a war against the Russian Federation.

In a non declared war, the USA, Britain and others are killing Russians. It is funny to see how disagreements within NATO are leading to national political crisis. It is well know that President Biden did not allow British Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace MP to stand as candidate to lead NATO. When Benn Wallace MP told Zelensky that Ukraine should be thankful for the support it has received and stated that 'Britain is not Amazon', Ben Wallce MP was expression the feeling of exasperation. USA has not been the greatest supporter of Ukraine. Britain has been the greatest supporter of Ukraine and to do so it has made huge sacrifices. As a consequence of his expressions of exasperation, Ben Wallace MP was chastised by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Ben Wallance MP then decided that he will not stay as Secretary of State for Defence, that he is leaving the cabinet in September 2023 and that he will not be standing for re-election in 2024. 

Lets not forget that this particular feud is the icing of the cake on top of several other internal feuds that have plagued the Conservative Party that is now facing at least three by-elections and it is early days. It is only July. A lot could happen before May 2024. The Prime Minister will have to appoint a successor in September 2023. There are rumous relating to an advanced General Election. With so many statements of Conservative MPs that have said that they will not stand for re-election and with the departure of key, very experienced Conservative politicians, Ben Wallace MP's departure combined with by-election losses could yet again trigger a leadership contest or an advanced General Election.

Once again, there is a link between what is happening concerning Ukraine and the state of British politics. There is no denying that after Covid the crisis in Ukraine led to an energy crisis that has severely affected not just Britain but Europe as a whole. The Bank of England has been forced to put up interests several times in a row to try to curb inflation and there have been periodical industrial action across the United Kingdom.

But Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has failed to recognize the fact that when you are facing a potential European war you need to beef up the Armed Forces that have been badly treated for many years. The recent 5.5% salary rise is an insult, especially taking into account that some Members of the Armed Forces earn less than a London bus driver. There is a recruitment crisis. At one point, legislation was passed to invite members of the Commonweath to join the Armed Forces and this did not work. Now, the British government is invited retired members of the Armed Forces and resigning members of the Armed Forces to return to active service. The situation is desperate. Britain has barely 73,000 men and women under the flag and with the absurd conditions in which military personnel have to live in, you have to be an idiot to want to return to active service, and this especially taking into account the fiascos of Afghanistan and Iraq.

 

UK: Smaller parties will not stand aside, even if it means division

What has become ostensibly clear is that smaller parties will not stand aside even if it means taking away votes from the Conservative Party. In years past, they would abstain. Not anymore. They believe that the Conservative Party has turned its back on Conservative Values and that they deserve to be punished.

Is Northern Ireland an integral part of the United Kingdom? The agreements reached by the Conservative government mean a de-facto separation of Northern Ireland that will continue under EU rule.

Has the government dealt with illegal migration? Absolutely not. It has come to the point when legal applicants seem to have the same rights as illegal immigrants.

Has the government dealt with environmental issues effectively? Absolutely not. The green belts continue to be built over and square kilometres of the green belts will be covered with concrete.

Local economies in the most deprived areas - especially in coastal towns - have been decimated firstly by COVID measures and secondly now by illegal migrants housed in hotels and community centres. Even when the weather was fair and plenty of people were willing to visit coastal towns and invest in their economies, it would be impossible to visit because accommodation that could be used for visitors is now used to house male illegal migrants.

To all accounts, the Conservative Party has failed to deliver on the environment, on migration, and on sovereignty. UK is not longer a souvereign country. So this is why smaller parties that have a nationalist agenda will also be campaigning against the Conservative Party.

When it comes to choosing candidates for the London Assembly, the Conservative Party is as divided as ever and there are those who say that all candidates now on the shortlist don't have a political profile and don't have the political experience to step up to the challenge. Some say this is the equivalent of standing paper candidates and defeat is the only possible outome. As the remaining contenders themselves stated during a husting in Central London, winning London is very much needed to have a chance of winning the next General Election. If this is the case, the outcome of the 2024 General Election is a given and it means total defeat if the Conservative Party manages to lose more local elections (already lost quite a few authorities) and several Parliamentary seats. The present feud at national level is also influencing the choice of candidates for the London Elections. We hear talk about teams - Team Sunak, Team Johnson. 

Somebody suggested that there are good reasons to create two independent Conservative Parties so that people really know what the political party they choose really stands for. 

UK Elections: What for?

Who has real power? Elected representatives? the mass media? the trade unions?

When an MP, for whatever reason, falls from grace, what happens to democracy? Since the last General Election, and since other elections, we have seen Prime Ministers, Cabinet Ministers and other elected representatives exposed as either incompetent, corrupt or both. We can say as justification that those elected are as fallible and as vulnerable as anybody else, but we cannot avoid the consequences. Because they are constantly in the public domain and being talked about, their failings lead to lack of trust not just in them, but also lead to lack of trust in the democratic process.

This afternoon, a Police officer told me about his feeling about how the system to deal with mental health patients is not working and about how he encounters the same kind of situation on a daily basis. He said that having taken a mental health patient to an Accident and Emergency Department, the said patient usually ended up staying in the Accident and Emergency Department for more than 24 hours under police custody because he or she was not admitted into proper dedicated wards inside the hospital. He also told me about how patients are being discharged without proper treatment only to relapse to get involved being involved in life-threatening events. Departments meant to deal with mental health patients are over-capacity and tend to discharge patients before it is safe to do so. 

Now, this is a mental health issue, but it is also a political issue. One government after another, of all political colours, have failed to address the issue of what is done with mental health patients. We are dealing with mental health patients born and bred in the United Kingdom and we are dealing with people who arrive in the UK with mental health issues. We care more about dogs and cats than we care about people. We have more safeguards concerning dogs and cats, than we have safeguards concerning people. The recent Covid Pandemic is a perfect example. How long it took to close borders to present the spread of the disease? Were borders closed at all? On a daily basis we are admitting people who come into the country illegally and there are no safeguards regarding public health.

Even trust in Police forces is falling due to well-known incidents and this has been made worse by the fact that those in charge of Police forces have publicly stated that they don't have the tools to get rid of 'bad apples'. We know that there are individuals in uniform that are a certain liability when it comes to public safety and we accept it as fait accompli. We are supposed to elect representatives that will deal with these matters. So many failures tell you that democracy is not working. So much mismanagement and so many failures happen for a reason. Changing one political party for another will do nothing to change the core reasons that lead to such mismanagement and failures.There is something fundamentally wrong regarding the system itself.

Strikes: winners and losers

 

Strikes: winners and losers

The coming months will see more strikes in Britain and this will include not only transport but also state administration, National Health Service, Education and other segments of the British economy. The idea is that workers want better deals to lose less of the value of their incomes being eroded by the inflationary process created by sanctions against the Russian Federation.

One of the outcomes has been the downgrading of the education system with most education centres having gone done in terms of education standards and there is more to come when teachers go on strike. To the damage caused by the Covid Pandemic will be added the damage caused by absenteism from classrooms caused by strikes. This is going to be also a difficult time for working families and many will face the dilemma of going to work, leaving their children alone outside schools or staying home to look after their families. This will also pose serious social risks. Having children without education and without adult supervision roaming around with little to do is certainly a recipe for disaster. 

We cannot entirely blame workers concerned about their incomes, but the very shortsighted approach of administrations that completely underestimated the impact of geopolitical decisions. Everybody with a grain of common sense could foresee that economic warfare would have repercussions not only for the British economy, but for the world's economy as a whole.  Even France with its nuclear power advantage is in dire straits as the vast majority of French nuclear reactors are not operational and this led to a direct confrontation between the French authorities and energy providers when French authorities tried to force energy providers to provide electricity at below operational margins. Similar situations occur across continental Europe and Winter has not even arrived. As temperatures fall, the true extent of the energy crisis will be felt and words like rationing and blackouts. Those who remember the early 1970's in Britain will know fairly well what it means. At one point, Britain was working three days a week. In Britain, temporary aid has been provided to help both ordinary consumers and companies deal with the brunt of energy prices but, unless such schemes are intended to be a permanent feature, sooner than later the real costs of energy will be felt across the board.

So what do strikes achieve? To begin with, those who are going to bear the brunt of strikes are going to be the most vulnerable and especially those who are part of the Zero Hour Contract economy and the black economy. With reduced economic activity, they are going to struggle to survive. Recession could soon be followed by Depression and we also what Depression means. In a recession, economic activity is severely affected but continues. In a Depression, the ultimate consequence is massive levels of unemployment. The hospitality industries - for example, were critically affected by lockdown measures during the pandemic. After that, they have had to deal with higher energy prices and many businesses came to an abrupt end. If now they to have to deal with higher energy prices and margins that do not cover their operational costs, for a vast number of businesses this will be the end game.

Any temporary gains will be followed by gigantic losses. In an economy with skyrocketting levels of borrowing, any salary increases will be swallowed by inflation.

 Double-digit rates of inflation in the European Union

This is what is happening in many EU countries right now. Will the energy crisis make anything better or worse? Knee-jerk reactions are leading many European countries towards a major disaster. Britain's backwards and forwards political decisions do not favour any kind of political stability either. This comes on top of the COVID disaster and the rabid anti-Russian attitudes that might be leading the continent towards a political blackout. Investors need to trust that European economies are in capable hands. Are they?

Welfare systems don't have the capacity to deal with changes of such magnitude and the financial system is bound to suffer if suddenly customers cannot afford to repay debts or to keep up with mortgage payments. There comes a time when interest payments become unaffordable and Argentina could teach us a few lessons about that. Mortgage defaults and inabilty to rent accommodation are major issues. There is even the case of landlords who explicitly say that they do not let properties to people who can only pay for accommodation with welfare payments. There will be even less properties let  to people supported with welfare payments if legislation is passed preventing landlords from evicting tenants who cannot afford tenacy payments.

Britain is in a dire position. Who is the Prime Minister? Who is the Chancellor of the Exchequer? Who is in charge? What will be the tax regime tomorrow? Day-after tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Political volatility and economic volatility go hand in hand.

Germany is no better. SPD barely managed to form a coalition that could be broken apart by the consequences of energy crisis. Job creation? If manufacturing is torpedoed by energy prices or scarcety of energy sources, the concern will not be about creating more jobs, but about keeping the ones that already exist. BMW's move to China might be due to several factors including an uncertan tax environment, the prospect of energy cuts, the fact that China is not deterred from building new coal fired energy plants and therefore able of offering cheaper and reliable sources of energy and if this wasn't enough the fact that China is a gigantic market.

If financial sectors get into trouble - it happened before - will governments be willing or be capable of rescuing financial sectors? And what about industrial unrest? Are we thinking about the consequences of persistent industrial unrest? For every strike i.e. transport strike, how many other areas are negatively impacted? If strikes happen simultaneouly, the impact is compounded.  

 

 

As Liz Truss threatens the Russian Federation with nuclear war, the Russian Federation launches covert national mobilization

 

What about the situation that is developing does the favourite to become British Prime Minister not understand?

If somebody threatens you, what do you do? Launch a pre-emptive attack. Within 15 minutes London will be history. That is the time it takes for a nuclear missile to reach London if launched from Kaliningrad. Hustings are turning into a dangerous circus. 

What is said by British politicians are being studied and every bit of information is being sent abroad to build a profile of what could be the next move. In the meantime, Boris Johnson, the outgoing Prime Minister is asking Britons to put up with an impending economic catastrophe.

Britain is today is an worst position that the position it was in in 1940. For decades now, one government after another has been weakening Britain to the point that Britain's military manpower is less than 80,000 and Britain does not have the capability to patrol its own coasts and its security services don't have the necessary manpower to track every possible terror operator, let alone tracking an organised attack within Britain carried out by well trained operators with a specific agenda.

The Russian Federation does not need to even attempt to attack Britain. British politicians are themselves busy destroying Britain. Improvisation, miscalculation, lack of awareness of the consequences. It is the law of unintended consequences that would push Britain downhill. 

Napoleon described Britain as a nation of shopkeepers. Paradoxically, the said shopkeepers kept Britain alive. Now, British shopkeepers are falling prey of British politicians. 

The news came today that for fear of dealing with bankruptcies and unpaid debts, energy providers are refusing to extend long term energy contracts for small businesses. If the hospitality industries and small businesses are forced to close down - many in the said hospitality industries and small business barely managed to survive the Covid pandemic - the most vulnerable will be once again severely hit.

And what happens to farming? Farmers barely survive thanks to subsidies, subsidies that will be devalued by inflation. Energy rationing? Food rationing? Blackouts? A cabinet minister indicated that he is not in favour of electricity rationing. Well, the words 'if necessary' not only apply to nuclear weapons. The authorities will be forced to impose rationing.  

  

UK: In just a few weeks, the British economy could be in the doldrums and much stronger leadership will be needed

 

What is happening right now is deeply worrying because the times of easy money could be coming to an abrupt end. The issue is not just rising inflation. The issue is that salaries and pensions have been pegged to inflationary pressures. 

At this point in time, asking for salary rises pegged to inflation could itself be a force towards more inflation and more borrowing when interest payments will be taking their toll on public finances.

And what if, as expected, the Treasury does not agree to salary increases that it could hardly afford? Would the state sector be ground to a halt? It is understandable that public workers that are seeing their incomes devalued are prone to ask for salary rises. Having said that, those in charge know full well that public finances have been drained and that any monies to pay for higher salaries will come from additional borrowing at a time when interest rates are going up and from an increase in taxation.

If energy is the main driver when it comes to inflationary pressures, then more energy will have to be produced and to do so all the promises in terms of a reduction of the use of fossil fuels will have be put aside. In the 1970s, Britain was almost brought down to its knees and the country was working just a few days a week. The issue was then energy or lack of it. Today, the issue is the price of it. Whoever takes the reins of power in September will have to make difficult choices. Doing less to save energy is not an option. Slowing down the British economy by enforcing energy savings will make matters a lot worse. 

We learnt from the imposed Covid lockdown leading to lack of economic activity that slowing down the British economy will cost livelihoods: businesses will be closed down and an undetermined number of jobs will be lost. Companies that generate little or no revenue at all have no reason to maintain jobs. Less economic activity endangers jobs and produces less tax revenues. If you slow down an aircraft in plain flight the time comes when the only way is down. We cannot have yet another loss of economic activity. We need energy and we need energy wherever we can find it. If foreign oil and gas producers don't want or cannot provide additional oil and gas, Britain will have to become self-sufficient and all options should be on the cards, including fracking.

Whoever is chosen as Prime Minister will have to make hard choices and implement decisions that will prove to be as unpopular as fundamentally necessary. Whether Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss is in command, he or she will have to forget about popularity contests. The popularity contest is only there to get one of them elected. Real governance demands dogged determination to do what is right.   

A futuristic picture of Europe?

 A futuristic picture of Europe?

As days become shorter and Europe moves towards the dark seasons of the year, after Covid lockdowns, come the Dark Ages. In Southern European regions, it would not be much of a problem, but the most affected regions of Europe will include highly industrialized areas. 

Manufacturing will be reduced, commercial activity will be reduced, and we will have to calculate the consequences that in some ways could be pretty similar to what Europe had to face because of the measures implemented to deal with the Covid pandemic. As inflation takes hold and energy prices go up, the lack of economic activity with add to the pile of debt - both public and private - destabilizing economies even more leading to what the Deputy President of the European Commission called 'social unrest'.

German cities impose cold showers and turn off lights. Rising production costs in the UK lead to 4.4% in UK shop prices. It is said that EU member states have very different energy mixes: a few countries were nerarly 100 per cent depedent on Russian gas while others used none, indicates an article published by The Guardian in London, UK. There is discontent in countries that used little or no Russian energy that are now forced to make sacrifices for those that spent many years using cheap gas imported from the Russian Federation.

In the meantime, the Rubble, the Russian Federation currency, is booming. Simon Jenkins states that sanctions against the Russian Federation have visibly backfired. Energy prices are rocketting, inflation is soaring and millions are being starved of grain. Having said that, for EU member states the worst is still to come. Keep an eye on Western economies. Keep an eye on political developments. As inflation rises, industrial unrest will grow and political stability will vanish.

Moscow and London: How signals are interpreted

 

How signals are interpreted

In 1991, the Soviet Union came to an end and this was very much the consequence of the efforts to remain ahead during the so called Cold War. The Soviet Union had to invest a vast amount of resources to remain significant in the arms race and it came the point when it could no longer afford to keep up because it did not have the financial muscle to do so.

The resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev as Soviet President is very much the end as soon after the Soviet Union disintegrated, leaving the USA as the one major superpower without any close competitors as China itself was far from being what China is today - economically, technologically and militarily. It could be said that the USA could attack Yugoslavia and dismember Yugoslavia without a UN mandate and without any real opposition and this is something that could not have happened if the Soviet Union had been around with the power to prevent such attack.

Having said that, 2022 is a different story. The Russian Federation is much more powerful than the Soviet Union for several reasons and one of them is the fact that the Russian Federation like China are much more homogenous countries with less ethnic and political contradictions. The Russian intelligence networks was magnifically helped by the fact that former Warsaw Pacto countries and regions were integrated into the European Union. If you were to look for an image to represent what has happened the Trojan Horse comes to mind.

The USA has used Britain as an extension of the USA in Europe and beyond. The USA has used Britain to justify USA agendas before the American people. If Tony Blair had not joined forces with George Bush Junior, it would have been difficult for the American President to sell his agenda to the American people. Britain has been used as a junior partner and as a propaganda tool and Britain has had to pay a very high price for it. It happened in Iraq and it happened in Afghanistan and it is happening in Europe. Inflation and financial difficulties that Britain is facing don't come out of nowhere. They are the direct result of sanctions and other measures taken against the Russian Federation that have had a boomerang effect not just in Europe, but worldwide. What happens when oil prices measured in US Dollars go up? Britain will pay higher prices not just because of market prices going up, but also because the loss of value of Pound means that Britain will need a lot more Dollars to pay for energy supplies and this has a direct impact on the British economy. If the Treasury cannot keep up with increasing expenditure and if the private sector in Britain has to translate cost into prices charged to consumers, industrial unrest is already on the horizon.

Just a few days ago, the British government was offering salary increases of 3% when inflation was already at 9% and more. Active workers will suffer and pensioners will suffer when the government is not able to adjust salaries and pensions taking into account the rate of inflation. The private sector already hit very badly by Covid, hit now both by inflation and consumption reduction will face an even harsher economic environment.

Liz Truss as Foreign Secretary said that she was in favour of cutting down the manpower of the British Armed Forces at a time when tensions are rising and there is the prospect of open conflict with both the Russian Federation and China. While would the UK be talking about cutting down its military capabilities? While is she asking other countries to increase their defense budget? My educated guess is that Britain does not have what it takes to beef up its Armed Forces and is therefore asking others to invest more to level the field in terms of what NATO can do or not do. President Donald Trump raised the concern that USA was the one feeling the pain created by military expenditure while other NATO members were not doing enough. Chancellor Olaf Scholz talked about hundred billions of EUROs to beef up German military capabilities, but how does this fit in with the fact that Germany is facing serious issues when it comes not just to the availability of energy sources, but also to the cost of existing energy sources. When both big economic players like Bayer and Thyssen-Krupp and the trade unions talk about the risk of economic collapse, what will Olaf Scholz be willing to sacrifice to beef up the German military capabilities? When you look East, Poland was offering to send their outdated Mig fighter jets to Ukraine if the USA could give Poland F35s in exchange, something that was rejected outrightly by the USA. What about other countries of the NATO block and what about those who are not members of NATO? Do they have the financial muscle to beef up their military capabilities or will they always depend on what USA or Britain can give them? Germany made many promises, but has delivered none of them.

Behind the speeches, this is the reality and today the British Primer Minister Boris Johnson fell not because of the scandals involving sexual misconduct of Conservative MPs. He fell because of economic realities. What were Conservative MPs talking about? VAT and Corporation Tax. Britain has been overspending for several reasons, including the fight against COVID when caution regarding budget was put aside to deal with a national emergency. On top of that, there is another national emergency created by British geopolitical decisions that have backfired. 

Look at the economy. For decades, Britain had remained relatively stable with very low interest rates and a significantly higher rate of employment and low prices in the shops. As the CEO of Poundland explained, he used to pay about 2,000 Pound for a container and now the price has jumped and it costs 20,000 Pound to bring imported products to the United Kingdom. Add to that fixed overheads and utilities and economic margins are dramatically reduced. This is not sustainable and on top of it the devaluation of the Pound compared to the US Dollar will make imports ever more expensive. Put aside Poundland and the situation many importers and exporters face and focus on food supplies. If Britain imports 60 per cent of what Britain consumes, then the costs of food will rise exponentially combining importation, transportation and distribution and costs involved in retail operations. Retail costs have been reducing by reducing manpower at the shops. You see today that the number of employees employed by retailers has been reduced with the introduction of automation. Automation reduces the numbers of jobs across the board whether we are talking about banking and financial institution, retailers and even transport. Much of the dispute affecting transport and leading to strikes is due to the declared intention of cutting jobs to cut costs. Having said that, if jobs been eliminated in one segment of activity are not created in other areas, the welfare bill will have to rise to pay for unemployment benefits and other social benefits in a country in which the number of non active population is rising while the number of those active at work is falling. This happens naturally because of an ageing population, but it is accelerated when people who are still fit to remain active lose their jobs.

What happened to the Soviet Union will happen to Britain. There is a time when your economy is not strong enough and everything is translated into accumulated and rising debt and when this happens there are social and political consequences.

 

Google: Taking steps to protect employees

Google has stated that all its staff have to be fully vaccinated before returning to work and the British government has indicated that they are looking carefully at whether new employment laws are needed.  

To begin with, no one rational would like to work side by side with somebody that knowingly carries an infectious disease that can be passed to him or her and everybody else.

The policy is to be applied immediately to those working for Google in the United States of America, but there plan to implement the policy internationally in the coming months.

Another two companies - Facebook and Netflix - have also announced vaccination rules in the USA and there is the prospect that the policy will be applied soon in the United Kingdom.

In the United Kingdom, various companies like Bank of America, Bloomsbury and Pimlico Plumbers have made public similar policies. 

Regardless of employment laws, every company has company rules and it has been said that vaccination demands from employers could be considered reasonable as a legal duty to ensure workplaces are safe.

 

Scarborough and many other coastal towns succeed with tourism or struggle without tourism

 

Fair weather that encourages people to go out and enjoy what Britain has to offer is not the rule, but the exception. Scarborough like many other coastal towns depend very much on the flow of tourism.

While the mass media and politicians seem to be focused on international travel, lets remind them that there is a country called United Kingdom and that millions of peoples depend on seasonal economies.

Would I want to travel across Britain and get to know Britain? You bet that I would like to see every corner of Britain, but when you look at the cost of public transport (public transport that is subsidized by taxpayers) you understand that for a huge number of Britons travelling across their own country is an impossibility. Whether it is Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat they have had decades in power to ensure the dream of being able to see Britain becomes a reality and they had done very little or nothing to make such dream a reality. They are too busy talking shit about each other and getting involved in campaigns against Britain and against British interests. They are supposed to represent Britain and to stand  up for Britain and they go around undermining Britain and thaks to mass media manipulation and indoctrination many of the culprits keep getting elected. Elected to do what? Promises about a Socialist Paradise that has never existed and will never exist and talk about Value for Money that is translated as Value for Rubbish have destroyed hopes and aspirations for decades if not centuries.

The worst enemy of Britain is  not the Russian Federation nor China nor AlQaeda or Taliban or any other external foe. The worst enemy of Britain are politicians that completely ignore the needs of Britain and walk around promoting their own agendas that have nothing to do with British interests.

Politics in Britain is an absolute shambles. As an example, one of the leaders of the Green Party just resigned 'because she did not agree with her own party policies on transgender issues'. You will struggle to find the link between saving the planet and the sexual agenda. It seems that for the said leader of the Green Party sexuality is more relevant that efforts made to protect the environment.

News: We are bombarded with massive amounts of data that we can hardly assess or interpret

Whether there is news about floods in continental Europe or the state of international travel or the return to normal level of activity in spite of the fact that the pandemic is ongoing, we are bombarded with massive amounts of data that we have little time to assess or interpret. We try to cover as many bases as possible but unavoidably some stuff get through the net.

Everything is offered with some kind of interpretation that favours a specific agenda and the end result is total confusion. Whether you trust or don't trust the messenger, whether you know or don't know enough about the subject matter, the influx of data can be overpowering.

If we don't have enough information about what is really causing the floods in Germany and in neighbouring countries, we might end up over-generalizing and believing that this is about major chaos when in fact it is a very localized problem. 

With regards to international travel, as the situation in each country remains fluid, it is easy to conclude that when you travel you need to take into account that conditions in terms of where you can go  and what rules you need to follow might suddenly change. Which countries are on the green list? Which countries are on the amber list? Countries can suddenly go from green to amber and suddenly you are faced with different immigration controls and forced to go into quarantine.

With regards to a return to normal levels of activity, there is the same degree of uncertainty. Britain has been under various degrees of Lockdown since March 2020. How each individual will react after July 19th 2021 is a mystery. Some will continue to be overly cautious and others will disregard any limitations.

Conditions in each of the four home countries could be remarkably different. We also know that because public health is a devolved issue, each of the four home countries might adopt different rules when it comes to freedom of movement. What do we know at the moment? In certain areas wearing a protective mask will continue to be mandatory requirement.  We also know that in some venues it could be practically impossible to enforce certain rules.

We await to hear news about issues regarding enforcement and about a potential change of direction should the ongoing health emergency lead to new quarantine measures.

Will the new opening last? July and the period until the return of students to full time education would be a time to relax movement limitations. We are not so sure about what will happen in September at the start of the new school year. What is certain is that a rising number of people can no longer cope with quarantine conditions. Just across the Channel there are mass demonstrations carried out by people who have had more than enough and cannot or don't want to accept any more movement limitations.

How will people in general react in the United Kingdom if there are stricter quarantine rules? There are definitely two sides of the argument. Those who support movement limitations say that we are not out of the water and that we need to be patient. Those who oppose any restrictions go as far as saying that restrictions will never necessary.