Question marks and more question marks = Elections that can change the geopolitical map

 

Elections that can change the geopolitical map are taking place throughout 2024. We start with France in a few days time when European Parliament Elections could signal what will the potential outcome of the French General Election be.

In the United Kingdom, many assume that Keir Starmer will be the next British Prime Minister. Is this set in stone?

And in the USA, please have a look at those running as Vice-Presidential Candidates. We should not underestimate the possibility of Vice-Presidential Candidates becoming key figures during the next mandate starting in 2024. Will the outcome of these elections be clear enough to avoid the precedent of litigation when elections in certain states were strongly contested?

There are important developments happening not only in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. In October 2025, Federal Elections in Germany. In the Federal Election of 2021, the SPD - head of the ruling coalition with FDP and Grüne - 23.4% of the vote. It now has an expectation of vote of 15%. FDP had 11.4% and it now has 5%, while Grüne had 14.7% and it now has 12%. CDU had 24.2 % and it now has 30%. In any case, results point towards yet another coalition.

The impact of what is happening in Germany has had obvious consequences - all members of the present coalition have seen their support going down. In 2021, 23.4 plus 11.4 plus 14.7 = 49.5 

Today, support for the coalition is 15 plus 5 plus 12 = 32

Alternative für Deutschland has the same level of support that Grüne and FDP have put together. But other surveys indicate that SPD has 15% and AfD has 17%. This means that Alternative für Deutschland has more support than the political party that is now ruling Germany. Should anything major happen, how will any major event - war included - affect the outcome of German elections?

Energy Crisis: Who is winning?

 

Covid did damage economies and completely changed lifestyles, but the single most  negative factor for Western Economies was the knee jerk reactions aimed at damaging the Russian Federation that ended up creating hardship, political and social instability in those countries seeking to undermine the Russian Federation.

For those living in the United Kingdom, sanctions against the Russian Federation meant the end of the Paradise of low prices and stable economics. Just when Britain was coming out of the nightmare created by Covid economics, the British government - once again - reacted by impulse instead of using their brains properly. Not enough with mistakes made in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. British politicians had once again to put a foot wrong by jumping on the American bandwagon of failed foreign policies and started to dig an even bigger hole for themselves.

British policies regarding events in Eastern Europe have led to catastrophic realities in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Industrial economies rely on... energy. Something that British politicians completely forgot about it. Germany, thank to Merkel, got into a bigger hole. Why? Merkel's knee jerk reactions regarding nuclear power. What would be the chances of a tsunami hitting German nuclear reactors as it happened in Japan? Zero. Angela Merkel over-reacted and decided to leave Germany totally exposed to an energy crisis having to almost totally depend on fossil fuels. Even France with its nuclear capacity got hit because... France negleted its nuclear infra-structure.

The conflict has been raging for years now and might continue for the foreseeable future, although the USA and Germany are now applying pressure on Ukraine to force Ukraine to seek peace. At the end of the day, it all comes to money and another factor to consider is that today Europe is a lot less safe because of the stupidity of its leaders. As the Western side decided to get dirty by using weapons banned by most countries in the world, the Russian Federation decided that it had enough and passed legislation withdrawing from all nuclear weapons agreements. So now, all gloves are off. This is a situation created by Western warmongers that expected that they could whatever without a rection from the other side. They have used Ukraine in a war by proxy against the Russian Federation and now those who jumped on the warmongers' bandwagon are bound to pay the consequences.

General Winter is coming. The expectation is that all Ukrainian infra-structure will be wiped out, pushing Ukraine back to the Middle Ages.

Most everyday products cheaper in UK than in EU

As European Union countries face recession with the price of everyday use products being more expensive than in the United Kingdom, the anti-Brexit argument collapses. After Covid and following the hardships generated by a conflict in Eastern Europe, the British economy is on the way up. No recession in the horizon for British consumers and British workers. 

If prices in Continental Europe are higher, Britain faces no limits in terms of acquiring basic products outside the European Union at lower prices. The benefits of this is twofold. Firstly, it allows Britain to ease the pressure on British consumers and, secondly, it allows Britain to interact more with Developing Economies thus improving trade relations with less fortunate countries.

Outside the parentage of the European Union, Britain can now go for expansion across the rest of the world, something that will improve Britain's standing as a trading nation. Massive areas of the world, highly populated areas of the world, are now open for business. 

Potash, critically important resource for both agriculture and weapons industries, does not come from Germany, France or any other EU country. Argentina, to name just one country, has potash and companies like Rio Tinto have dealt with such an important resource. Most of the world outside the European Union is mainly agricultural. So this is a wonderful opportunity for Britain to revitalize its industrial base and expand its trade with agricultural countries.

As several EU countries know fairly well, EU is a political project. Nertherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Poland - to name a few - have been at odds with the EU for one reason or another for very fundamental reasons. Why should Netherlands have less energy and less farming? Why should Poland and Hungary be pressured to force them to accept to change their demographic make up with unbridled migration and forces to pay for their reluctance to accept demographic changes?

Present recession realities across the EU tell you that politics seems to matter more than economics and recession comes with huge social costs.

Ukraine: Blockade or no Blockade? British foreign policy stances could cost Boris Johnson his premiership.

Western countries - especially USA and UK - have been supplying weapons to Ukrainian forces. Economic sanctions, bans and political bans have been applied against the Russian Federation and against private Russian citizens. No wonder then that when President Macron of France and others ask Russian authorities to lift the blockade of Ukrainian ports to allow safe passage for Ukrainian exports like wheat Russian authorities are not willing to lift the blockade. I don't think that after everything that has been done and is being done against the Russian Federation there is any mood for negotiation.

There is an ongoing military conflict and Western countries are not neutral in this conflict. There is a massive anti-Russian propaganda machine and some countries have gone as far as banning Russian mass media so a mass media war is very much part of the war in Ukraine and the United Kingdom is the main culprit in what is happening concerning Ukraine.

The mood for confrontation is pretty obvious and the level of madness is rising with the British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss MP now threatening that she is going to ban Chinese investors being China another piece of the puzzle of another potential conflict that could make what is happening in Eastern Europe look like a game for small children. The fact that Britain does not have its own foreign policy and simply follows what the USA wants or does not want is a recipe for disaster and British consumers are already paying a very high price for such short-sighted approach. In political terms, the consequences for the ruling Conservative Party would be catastrophic.

After the Covid pandemic and the cost of dealing with the Covid pandemic, the British Chancellor Rishi Sunak was counting on resources to repair the economic damage generated by pandemic and the policies implemented to keep the British economy afloat. Now, the British Chancellor is having to go farther along lines that contradict what many in the Conservative Party believe the Conservative Party should stand for. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has now become a very visible target within his own ranks. Never mind the innefficacity or the incompentence of the leadership of the Labour Party. The British stance on Ukraine could cost Boris Johnson his premiership and open the way for a return of the Labour Party to power. 

China: Unequivocal expressions of Chinese Ambassador in France

 

Unequivolcal expressions of Chinese Ambassador in France

You need to listen carefully to know where things are heading towards. The reunification of Taiwan with mainland China is just a matter of time.

Insofar the fall of the Shah of Iran was predictable and what happened at the American Embassy in 1979 could have been avoided, something similar seems to be happening when it comes to Taiwan.

The signs exist for those who want to see, who are ready to take into account what is happening right now and take the necessary measures to avoid a catastrophe that is on the cards.

When it comes to Eastern Europe, each side is positioning itself very much as it happens before the battle. Diplomacy will continue until the time when the first shot is fired because diplomacy is used to prevent any side taking action before all preparations are in place. The sides are sizeing each other, looking for strengths and weaknesses. It reminds me of the preparation for battle that you could see in the days of Napoleon Bonaparte. The cavalry, the infantry and the artillery are being made ready for battle.

The Chinese Ambassador does not mention words that could be directly associated with war but the meaning of what he says is pretty clear.The sides are playing for time and when time runs out it will be showdown time. In Poland, there are expressions of concern regarding an imminent conflict. In Germany, there seems to be the belief that something major will happen soon. You need to listen to what is being said and you have to listen what is not been said. You have to pick up the pieces of what is happening elsewhere because there are not going to be merely regional battlefields. When conflict begins the Organisation of the United Nations will cease to exist and all conventions and agreements guaranteed by the existence of the UN will cease to exist. Laws will be written by the victors and a New World Order will be built on the ashes of the present World Order.