Energy Crisis: Who is winning?

 

Covid did damage economies and completely changed lifestyles, but the single most  negative factor for Western Economies was the knee jerk reactions aimed at damaging the Russian Federation that ended up creating hardship, political and social instability in those countries seeking to undermine the Russian Federation.

For those living in the United Kingdom, sanctions against the Russian Federation meant the end of the Paradise of low prices and stable economics. Just when Britain was coming out of the nightmare created by Covid economics, the British government - once again - reacted by impulse instead of using their brains properly. Not enough with mistakes made in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. British politicians had once again to put a foot wrong by jumping on the American bandwagon of failed foreign policies and started to dig an even bigger hole for themselves.

British policies regarding events in Eastern Europe have led to catastrophic realities in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Industrial economies rely on... energy. Something that British politicians completely forgot about it. Germany, thank to Merkel, got into a bigger hole. Why? Merkel's knee jerk reactions regarding nuclear power. What would be the chances of a tsunami hitting German nuclear reactors as it happened in Japan? Zero. Angela Merkel over-reacted and decided to leave Germany totally exposed to an energy crisis having to almost totally depend on fossil fuels. Even France with its nuclear capacity got hit because... France negleted its nuclear infra-structure.

The conflict has been raging for years now and might continue for the foreseeable future, although the USA and Germany are now applying pressure on Ukraine to force Ukraine to seek peace. At the end of the day, it all comes to money and another factor to consider is that today Europe is a lot less safe because of the stupidity of its leaders. As the Western side decided to get dirty by using weapons banned by most countries in the world, the Russian Federation decided that it had enough and passed legislation withdrawing from all nuclear weapons agreements. So now, all gloves are off. This is a situation created by Western warmongers that expected that they could whatever without a rection from the other side. They have used Ukraine in a war by proxy against the Russian Federation and now those who jumped on the warmongers' bandwagon are bound to pay the consequences.

General Winter is coming. The expectation is that all Ukrainian infra-structure will be wiped out, pushing Ukraine back to the Middle Ages.

Ukraine: USA and Germany are putting pressure on Zelenski to end war

As recent Ukrainian actions risk bringing general mobilization in the Russian Federation, both the USA and Germany are putting pressure on Zelenski to end war before the Rubicon is crossed. The Russian Federation has been controlling itself and avoiding direct attacks against Kiev, but with the arrival of winter, this is about to change. It has been national policy of the Russian Federation not to attack government buildings in Kiev, but Zelenski's actions could lead to an all-out assault against the Ukrainian capital by land and air.

In the last 48 hours, drones have rained over Kiev and this could be the prelude to an air assault against Kiev. We are in 2023, not in 1939. In 1939, the Luftwaffe launched a deadly attack against Warsaw with much more limited capabilities. Politicians in the Russian Federation have been campaigning for a nuclear attack against Kiev. Short of a nuclear attack, a massive air assault could see one of the cultural capital of Europe demolished.

As General Winter comes, telecommunications, energy supplies and general transportation by land and see will be targetted - the kind of warfare that brought down the Third Reich. No fuel, no electricity, no gas, no water, no food, no communications and total devastation of urban areas of Ukraine.

Geert Wilders: More votes, but not enough

 

Netherlands suffers from the paradox of having a leader that has more than 30 per cent of the votes, but not enough votes to become Prime Minister.

The electoral system makes it practically impossible to become Prime Minister without having a coalition to back up a given candidate.

If no political party is willing to enter a coalition to support Geert Wilders then the only solution will be a Prime Minister that has less individual support in the country as long as he can count on the support of smaller parties.

Even with a ballotage system like the one applied recently in Argentina, Netherlands could end up with a Prime Minister that would have to negotiate every step of the way to get legislation passed.

The idea that Netherlands is moving towards the right is extremely premature. In fact, electoral results tell us that the country will be embroiled in endless negotiations and delays. 

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez: agreement with Catalunya's politicians generates political disquiet

Agreement with Catalunya's politicians including an amnesty was a necessary condition to ensure that he had enough support to remain as Spanish Prime Minister, but it does not come without political disquiet.

Just a short time ago, Catalunyan politicians were persecuted and even imprisoned for daring to organise an independence referendum. There is also the issue of Catalunya's debt to be declared fully paid. 

There is discontent in Spain regarding such agreements. Some said that those who were declared to have violated the Spanish Constitution are now being pardoned as a way to ensure political continuity.  There are also those who say that the agreements were an essential part of a deal to maintain political stability in Spain as a whole.

It is difficult to foresee the outcome of the present political impasse. Will the agreement re-ignite the independence process or was the agreement reached with pre-conditions that could prevent another referendum? Was a financial package for Catalunya a way to buy time? As long as the agreements do not lead to yet another political crisis, Pedro Sanchez should feel that it was the right option in a country in which absolute majorities seem to be a thing of the past.

Spain is not alone. Just hours ago, Netherlands went through an electoral process with the aim of choosing a new Prime Minister.  Being a majority is no guarantee. Because of political fragmentation, the political party that got more votes (more than 30 per cent) is by no means assured of being able  to choose the next Dutch Prime Minister.

In Germany, the survival of the ruling coalition led by Olaf Scholz is by no means guaranteed and we have a long way to go before the next Federal Elections due to take place in 2025. In recent state elections, CDU seemed to recover although only a little and Alternative fur Deutschland has reached more than 21 of popular support.

We could go on reviewing what is happening in different countries of the European Union and finding similar situations across the board.

China and Uruguay strengthen bilateral relations that go beyond trade

China and Uruguay strengthen bilateral relations at all levels, including trade but not exclusively trade. President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou is in Beijing for the signature of important agreements with a country that already receives 56% of Uruguayan exports.

Uruguay is a key geographic player with full access to Antarctica and the South Atlantic having some of the best deep water harbours in the region. Somebody that was already remarked by other Asian nations seeking to exploit the riches of Antarctica and of the South Atlantic.

The Uruguayan President has long seen bilateral agreements outside Mercosur as the key for Uruguay development, taking Uruguay away from the straightjacket of a trading block. It is not about leaving Mercosur, but about looking towards the rest of the world and especially towards new trade agreements in distant parts of the planet.

We do not know what will the Argentinian position since President Elect Javier Milei and his political partners in the Argentinian Parliament still need to decide what is needed to curb the inflationary process in Argentina. One needs to assume that for while internal matters both financial and political will be seen as immediate priorities. With regards to Brazil, President Lula is still interested in an agreement with the European Union, agreement that in view of present positions in Europe seems to be distant.

When comparing trade agreements, the European Union is a very small fraction of world markets. In demographic terms, Europe is an even smaller fraction compared to India, China, Russia and other world operators and this includes Africa - a massive continent with a vast amount of resources.

For Uruguay, anything that limits Uruguay's capacity to trade with the rest of the world is something to get rid of. Paraphazing what was said by Hungary when Hungary joined the European Union, 'we are going to accept that benefits Hungary and reject what does not benefit Hungary'. By the way, the music of the Uruguayan National Anthem was composed by a Hungarian composer. 
 

Argentina's difficult political balance, Mercosur and trade alliances beyond Latin America

With three digit inflation rates and decades of stagnation, forty years of democracy could mean absolutely nothing. In an election in which there were record numbers of voters, the incoming President Javier Milei got outstanding support accross the entire country with equally record numbers of provinces that came out to support him. 

It is not going to be an easy task. In fact, in Parliament opposition forces still have a commanding majority that could block every single attempt to change Argentinian politics and economics. The risk is that if more than 13 million voters that supported Javier Milei come to see Parliament as a sedicious force that stands on the way preventing changes then Parliament itself will be in trouble. Could government by decree become an alternative from the very beginning?

Argentinian Constitution extract

CHAPTER III Powers of the Executive Branch Section 99.- The President of the Nation has the following powers: 1.- He is the supreme head of the Nation, head of the government and he is politically responsible for the general administration of the country. 2.- He issues the instructions and rules necessary for the enforcement of the 16 laws of the nation, without altering their spirit with regulatory exceptions. 3.- He takes part in the making of laws according to the Constitution, promulgates them and has them published. The Executive Power shall in no event issue provisions of legislative nature, in which case they shall be absolutely and irreparably null and void. Only when due to exceptional circumstances the ordinary procedures foreseen by this Constitution for the enactment of laws are impossible to be followed, and when rules are not referred to criminal issues, taxation, electoral matters, or the system of political parties, he shall issue decrees on grounds of necessity and urgency, which shall be decided by a general agreement of ministers who shall countersign them together with the Chief of the Ministerial Cabinet.

The Constitution seems to indicate that only in exceptional circumstances the President can issue decrees and that 'The Executive Power shall in no event issue provisions of legislative nature, in wichi case they shall be absolutely and irreparably null and void.'. 

It is explicitly clear that the last and final word on legislative matters lies in Parliament and it is a Parliament in which the political party supporting the President directly will have 38 representatives in the House of Reprentatives of a total of 257 and in the Senate the number of Senators directly supporting the President will be 6 out of 72. Unavoidably, the President will have to seek support of other political parties to be able to pass any bills.

Given these numbers, all the scaremongering promoted by opponents of Javier Milei is totally unjustified. It is most probable that Mauricio Macri (Former President) and Patricia Bullrich (Former Minister under Mauricio Macri) of Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) will have a major say. 

The bone of contention will be that Javier Milei's electoral allies will have the seats that Javier Milei needs to govern and Javier Milei will be able to say that despite not having enough seats he has the popular mandate and that people supported his electoral platform.

If the President can manage to transform an electoral coalition into a governing coalition then there will be a peaceful working political transition. If the President does not manage to transform an electoral coaliton into a governing coalition then there will be political upheaval leading to dangerous political uncertainties.

In Uruguay, there are divisions in terms of supporting or not supporting Javier Milei. For example, Frente Amplio (Broadfront) in opposition was more inclined to support the losing candidate Sergio Massa. In Brazil, President Lula came openly in support of Sergio Massa. Javier Milei for starters indicated that he wanted to get rid of Mercosur - something he might not achieve given the fact that he will be effectively in coalition with Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich.

Uruguay has expressed that it wants ever closer trade relations with China, independently of its membership of Mercosur. Argentina itself has plans to incorporate Chinese communications technology. Brazil is seeking a new alignement having become a supporter of new trade arrangements that will bring the country closer to economies linked to the Russian Federation and China.

In spite of the fact that there are other Latin American economies linked to Mercosur, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are the core of the trading block.

Argentina: Dollarization or exactly the opposite to Dollarization

Headlines in Uruguay indicate that Argentinian President Elect Javier Milei will ban adverts with prices in US Dollars. For example, when it comes to adverts offering properties for renting, prices will have to be in the Argentinian national currency and will no longer be allowed to be published in US currency.

The newly elected President promised to apply a chainsaw to cut the state structure to bits getting rid of much of it as a way to cut down waste. No longer a Minister for Culture, no longer a Minister for Diversity, no longer participation of the state in areas that are better served by the private sector.

Radical measures to deal with radical problems that have been destroying Argentina and have dramatically increased the numbers of those living under poverty lines. To sum up: no more politicking. The newly elected President will be inaugurated on December 10th 2023, but he has been making waves since long before there was a prospect of him even being a candidate for President. What he says is very much what he believes and this will certainly put many people on short notice. The attitude seems to be: change or else.

It has been noted that most of those classed as younger generations who supported Javier Milei did so as a last resort as they are absolutely disappointed with democracy, a democracy that has only led to waste, corruption and mismanagement. The duality Peronismo/Radicalismo has been nefarious for Argentina as it has only helped to preserve the vicious cycle of indebtedness. Argentina is still fighting in American courts to deal with debts created more than 30 years ago and no government - either Peronista or Radical - has been able/willing/competent to sort out Argentina's massive problems. 

 

Javier Milei: New President for Argentina

The electoral success of Javier Milei was such that Sergio Massa - the Justicialista contender - spoke before official data was published to concede.

It was essential for Sergio Massa to make vows for a peaceful and proper transition indicating that dialogue and peaceful coexistence are the rule in a country with extraordinary high inflation rates.

The key word is change. 'We need change. We cannot expect improvements if we keep implementing the same policies over and over again'. 

On December 10th, 2023, the new President will be officially, formally, inaugurated. Time to have a look at the new Argentinian Parliament. Javier Milei was successful in most Argentinian provinces and this includes Buenos Aires where he was successful in areas that had traditionally supported Justicialismo (Peronismo).

It is foreseen that from this evening within Justicialismo a leadership struggle is just beginning and that former President and now also former Vice President Cristina Fernandez will lead Justicialismo once Sergio Massa lost the Presidential Election.

There will also be a new balance of forces within the Union Civica Radical that divided itself. Some chose to support Sergio Massa and most of them chose to support Javier Milei. It is also said that, in spite of getting 56% of the votes, given the need to reach agreements in Parliament to be able to govern, the new President will have to be more moderate than he appeared to be during the electoral campaign.

The size and role of the state will be at stake. The general philosophy is to reduce the Welfare State to promote employment, to stop paying people not to work. There will be both ideological and financial changes. With three digit inflation rates, a huge effort will have to be made to generate enough jobs to be able to cut the Welfare State without a major upheaval and this indicates that any changes will have to be gradual in a country in which a very high percentage of its population lives below poverty levels.

Javier Milei indicated that he has in mind a different idea regarding Mercosur, but this will have to wait while the new President tries to sort out the internal situation in Argentina.

Commentators define Javier Milei as a charismatic leader and that charisma is based on success and that the electorate chose Javier Milei because they expect miracles and that to be able to produce miracles the new President will soon be in a collision course with traditional political forces that chose to support him to defeat Justicialismo. 

Argentina is a country in which both Cristina Fernandez and Mauricio Macri (one Justicialista and another Radical) have still a strong power base. Regardless of the electoral success (56%), the new President will have to navigate in a country in which he will have to deal with powerful foes and friends that have their own political agendas. It has been said that younger generations belonging to the upper middle class are leaving the country and that a high number of the younger generations that belong to the lower middle class no longer believe in democracy.

Immigration Changes: changing national legislation and adherence to international treaties?

 

Changing national legislation and adherence to international treaties?

Statements have been made: legislation is going to be changed to allow Britain to overcome legal obstacles to deal with migration.

After the judgement issued by the Supreme Court regarding government agreements with Rwanda about migration management, questions have been raised in terms of how the British government is going to manage to overcome legal obstacles.

We await the texts of new bills that will have to be produced by Parliament to achieve declared aims so that the idea of sending migrants to Rwanda does not become a kind of round trip with people sent to Rwanda being returned by Rwanda to the United Kingdom in order to comply with legislation.

Declaring that Rwanda is a safe country might not be nearly enough if for any reason Rwanda decides to deport migrants back to the United Kingdom. What would be the point of accepting migrants back in Britain? Is this yet another plan destined to fail?

Can anybody come up with a viable plan, instead of proposing yet another gimmick?

In past months, hotels and recreational facilities have been filled up with illegal migrants. Even a barge was acquired to accommodate illegal migrants. Monies were paid to Rwanda for a plan that the Supreme Court declared illegal.

Another political embarrassment? We await with impatience the text of legislation promised by the government that will have to deal with the issue of illegal migration effectively.  

Failure to deliver in this particular scenario when the Prime Minister and Cabinet members have committed themselves so publicly is political suicide.

 

Rishi Sunak: Whatever it takes, we are going to deliver

 

Today, I saw Rishi Sunak acting Prime Ministerial. We are going to deliver whatever it takes

Firstly, he was respectful and accepted the verdict of the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court acted within its remit according to existing legislation and international agreements.

But then he rose as Prime Minister and stated loud and clear that he would put through Parliament legislation to ensure that Britain can protect its borders and protect national interests. Basically, he stated that the country must never give up its sovereignty.

James Cleverly as a former Foreign Secretary and new Home Secretary stated that the boats will be stopped and the new Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister David Cameron was there to emphasize exactly the same message. Michael Howard, former Party Leader, was also fast to support the Prime Minister and his determination to deliver regarding one of the hottest issues of the political agenda.

It is almost as if events of recent days and months have generated a transformation. Preventing Illegal migration might become the defining moment of a new Conservative Administration. This is the ultimate test of his political career. Defeat is not an option. He must deliver.

Conservative government: What next?

 Conservative Government: What next?

Since the days of Boris Johnson and in spite of then then 80 seat majority, the Conservative Administration has been plagued by both issues that they could not possible foresee and control and by situations that arose because of measures they took that turned into yet another crisis.

The Covid Pandemic declared in March 2020 put everybody to the test and lockdown measures adopted to apparently tackle the pandemic generated a whole new series of issues, increasing divisions within the Conservative Government. It was about 'Lockdown or no Lockdown'. 

The start of declared hostilities in Ukraine was yet another test. Sanctions against the Russian Federation backfired and produced an energy crisis that destabilized the British Economy. The long standing stability with low prices and low interest rates gave way to higher interest rates and higher prices that in turn produced a series of strikes and forced the government to add more protection measures on top of the protective measures adopted during Lockdown to prevent a sudden rise in unemployment due to lack of economic activity.

Once the government started to regain control the crisis in Palestine opened a whole new can of worms. The fact that people immediately took sides reflects the tribal nature of Britain and this, unavoidably, led to yet another reshuffle to try and have some kind of equilibrium both in national terms and in terms of geopolitics.

All the way, from Covid, going through Lockdown, sanctions against the Russian Federation that led to rising inflation and the present issues involving Palestine, fractures within political parties became fairly visible. It is like walking on a high rope without a balancing pole. As the saying goes, 'keep your friends close and your foes even closer'. Loyalties are being tested to destruction. If Britain were to be involved in a real war tomorrow morning, this is a government that is struggling to survive until the next General Election due to take place in May 2024 and that will not be capable of dealing with war at home and war abroad. What would a General Election in 2024 achieve? For starters, it could be change, even if it is change for change sake. Having said that, when you look at what is happening across the home nations, political realities are much too complex to be able to foresee what the outcome of a General Election would be. 

North of the border, at times it looks like the SNP will collapse. At times it looks like any expectations about the demise of the SNP are very much an exaggeration. In Wales, the Labour administration might be unpopular, but then people might decide to stick to what they have got for fear of worse political realities. In Northern Ireland, political paralysis is a reality with Sinn Fein winning spaces and without a cross party agreement to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In England, the mainstream political parties are fragmented depending on what are the most important issues according to regions.

There are far too many issues that generate divisions both in terms of national politics and of international politics. You cannot promise one thing to please one side without alienating another side and you don't have the luxury of being vague in terms of where you stand politically.

Gone with the wind: Where shall I go? What shall I do? Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.

The now former Home Office Secretaty was expressly asked by the Prime Minister not to make a certain statement and she, ignoring the concerns of the Prime Minister, went ahead and made the statement.

Direct consequence? She is now out of a job. She left Rishi Sunak with no choice. She had to be sacked because she was underming the authority of the Prime Minister.

Now, as a backbencher, she can say whatever she pleases as long as she does not get herself in any other mess that could lead her to lose the party whip for bringing the Conservative Party into disrepute. After her dismissal she stated that in coming days she will have something to say. Well, it will depend on what she says and the way in which she says what she says. She is desperately to be controversial in order to raise her profile, but she is managing to raise her profile for the wrong reasons. Saying outrageous things that promote violence is not the right course of action. Ignoring the authority of the Prime Minister is not the right course of action. She aligned herself with those who are on a collision course with the Conservative Party.

The arrival of David Cameron in difficult times when it comes to geopolitical issues sends a clear signal. Rishi Sunak is now trying to surround himself with heavyweights and the former Prime Minister David Cameron might be invigorated after a necessary vacation after the battles that he himself had to fight to keep the Conservative Party together during the Brexit war. Let's see what David Cameron can put on the table to salvage a struggling Conservative Party.

It is an interesting time with David Cameron as Foreign Secretary and Boris Johnson as GB News presenter. What will Boris Johnson have to say about the new Cabinet?

  

Conservative Party: 40,000 teachers left the profession. NHS is bleeding professionals that are leaving even for other countries

Conservative Party is in a crisis with MPs no longer willing to stand for re-election and even members of the Cabinet announcing that they will not be standing for re-election. In the meantime, problems are being piled up at all levels. 

In education, more than 40,000 teachers are no longer teaching. They have had more than enough. When asked, a school teacher said 'I could not take it any more. It was not just about 35 pupils in the classroom. It was also about dealing with children with mental health issues that made teaching impossible.' It is not about remuneration. It is about working conditions. Teacher are supposed to teach. They are not supposed to deal with psychiatric problems thrown in the classroom.

What has changed about the operation of Police stations in the UK. Politicians including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak make promises in the House of Commons that he really and truly knows that cannot be delivered. Police stations are not even receiving reports regarding property stolen, let alone theft of mobile phones. They are understaff and they don't have the resources to deal with that kind of crime.

How much times does a consultant in the NHS have to deal with patients? Not much. There are not enough consultants and not enough specialised staff. There is so much that can be done with lack of human resources and with lack of equipment.

And what happens in Job Centres? Unqualified staff and insufficient staff are leading to DWP staff quitting their jobs because they cannot deal with the workload they are forced to deal with. 

And what happens at the Home Office? Not enough staff to deal with mountains of applications and the natural consequence is that everything gets delayed and this has social consequences. A rising number of people are wandering around in limbo and more often than not local authorities, schools and social services have to deal with the outcome having to find non existing accommodation for families with children, many of which are facing mental health problems and situations of abuse including domestic violence.

This is a tale of massive government incompetence. Government secretaries of state and ministers spend an awful amount of time making political statements and seem absolutely oblivious to reality. What is the point of spending millions of Pound every ten years to carry out Censuses? Save the money spent on Censuses and spend it to really try to solve the myriad of problems Britain is facing. Whatever data can be gathered in censuses are completely unreliable.

You will never be able to keep up with inflation when trying to support families via the welfare state. Look at the cost of buying and look at the cost of renting. Private renting is a total waste of resources. The private market is not supposed to meet the needs of those in need. Private letting is a business. What is needed is the sort of letting that can be controlled by the state. If you have social housing, the monies can be kept by the state and re-invested in social services. Private renting should be left for those who can afford to rent without state support. The state should be both landlord and service provider.

Do you know what happens to families with children that are forced to be constantly on the move from one area to another, from one city to another? Do you know what happens when it comes to education, health, work, family cohesion and mental health? Instability, uncertainty, mental health problems, domestic violence, constant financial struggle and dependency and the list goes on.

 

Suella Braverman: Asset or Liability? There are profiles and profiles

 

Suella Braverman: Asset or Liability? Never try to outshine your boss.

The news that 10 Downing Street has not supported what was said by the Home Secretary in a controversial article might tell you that the clock is ticking for Suella Braverman. And the word 'controversial' perfectly describes Suella Braverman that has over-stepped the mark not once, but several times. The role of Home Secretary can be a poison chalice for many reasons, without adding what Suella Braverman has been adding in recent days. Her remarks about 'homelessness being a lifestyle choice' left many, from all political persuasions, scratching their heads in disbelief. She has appeared as insensitive, careless and extremely divisive. Not the ingredients for a country that faces enormous divisions caused by external events and not the ingredients for a country in which a growing number of people are struggling to make ends meet.

This happens at a time when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing an uphill struggle to inspire confidence and hope not just across the country, but also inside his own Cabinet and his own political party, with cabinet ministers resigning and saying that they will not be standing at the next General Election and others not willing to stand because they feel that they will face a disastrous defeat, with MPs being forced to resign and/or being deprived of the party whip due to wide range of scandals, the Conservative Party is not in good shape. You can try to raise your profile, but you might not be doing it for the right reasons and/or in the right way.

When it comes to the media, it feels that a growing number of MPs and former MPs have been joining GB News and this includes a former Prime Minister, a former Cabinet Minister and the present Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party. Is there enough space to include Suella Braverman as television presenter? With her statements, she has even surpassed Nigel Farage and this is an act hard to follow. 

Thirteen years is perhaps too long a time for a political party to stay in power without suffering the natural consequences. Too many excesses, too many scandals, too much division. Too much contempt for ordinary people and for ordinary peoples' needs and realities.

Next year, there are major electoral contests: the General Election and the Greater London Assembly Elections, elections of the devolved authorities in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The outcome of these elections is by no means guaranteed. The two major political parties have crisis of their own to deal with. Life has not been easy for a growing number of ordinary people and political uncertainties threaten to make life even harder. The time of moderate prices and predictability is over. 

Second Round of Elections in Argentina: Radical Bullrich endorses Milei against Peronista Massa

 

Lider Radical Patricia Bullrich distances herself from two sectors of the alliance that supported her candidacy in the first round of elections to reject Peronista (Justicialista) candidate Sergio Massa (Argentinian Economics Minister) and support Javier Milei. 

Cristina Bullrich said she could not possible support Sergio Massa that she responsabilizes for the state of the economy in Argentina.

Her support for Javier Milei keeps the contest wide open. She got 24% of the vote in the first round of elections. Other political leaders have shown their allegiance of one of the two remaining Presidential Candidates. Divisions in Argentina spread across national borders and Argentina is one of two most powerful players in Mercosur. It is usually said that if Argentina sneezes Uruguay catches a cold.

In Uruguay, the political crisis surrounding the award of a Uruguayan passport to a well known drug trafficker is rocking the ruling coalition headed by President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou of the Partido National - one of the two conservative parties that make up the ruling coalition. The Opposition represented by Frente Amplio (Broad Front) plans to focus the heat on President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou to reveal how he knew about the affair. At this moment in time, Cabildo Abierto - member of the ruling coalition - has expressed doubts about remaing as member of the coalition.

Everything in Argentina and in Uruguay is touch and go. A return of the Frente Amplio is not unthinkable if the ruling coalition falls apart. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has publicly endorsed Sergio Massa and is ideologically closer to Frente Amplio. It must be said that Javier Milei has stated that he wants Argentina to leave Mercosur. So this is more than a second round of a Presidential Election in Argentina. The survival of the Mercosur is at stake and relationships inside the bloc and outside the bloc could be affected by what happens in the next fews days in Argentina.

USA or Latin America: Migration will generate huge changes in the way see the American Continent

 

USA or Latin America: Migration will generate huge changes in the way we see the American Continent

It is just a matter of time and it cannot be reversed. USA and Canada will soon be part of Latin America. Financial and political crisis in Latin America, much of it owed to USA foreign policies regarding Latin America are turning the USA into Latin America as what started as a drip is now a flood that cannot be stopped. Latin American don't have to fly across the oceans. They are just walking into the USA and no closure of borders can prevent the exodus into the USA.

In demographic terms countries like Brazil are already competing with the USA and others are not far behind and this is also something to take into consideration.

In more than one way, the USA is also importing social issues from Latin America that added to existing issues in the USA can turn the American Dream into a nightmare. Extreme wealth combined with extreme poverty is not a recipe for success. How can things be turned for the better for all concerned? The tragedy is that problems are not due to lack of resources, but to lack of human intelligence to use a massive amount of resources for the common good.

Using Argentina as a example, Argentina's problems are not due to lack of resources. They are due to corruption and bad management. Argentina's enormous potential has been repeatedly wasted and the same can be said when talking about other countries including the USA.

Uruguay: None of the above and democracy in Latin America and the drugs trade

 

Uruguay: None of the above

Uruguay is facing a 'None of the above' moment when the country is heading towards a General Election. One in ten citizens qualified to vote do not want the present ruling coalition nor the Frente Amplio (Broad Front).

In spite of everything, Uruguay is in much better position that its neighbour Argentina that faces second round of elections this month having to decide between Justicialista Massa or Reformist Milei. There is a possibility that Radical supporters might vote for Justicialista Massa to prevent Reformist Milei from becoming President of Argentina. The formation of Parliament was decided in the first round of elections that took place in October.

The Coalition headed by President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou has made itself vulnerable and the recent round of scandals involved the resignation of major figures of the Coalition government including the Secretary of Foreign Affairs. The scandal is about the award of a Uruguayan passport to a leading drug trafficker. Uruguay, like other Latin American countries, is part of the international drugs trade. Some years ago, Chile's economic boom in the building sector was due to massive amount of investments of monies produced by the international drugs trade and Uruguay is no exception.

There are major social issues including the rise of violence perpetrated by minors that led to calls to lower the age of legal responsibility. Drugs and other social issues are driving a major wave of criminality. That ten per cent of voters have been without any options when it comes to elections is worrying.

 

The Money Bubble: Why politicians are completely out of touch with peoples' everyday realities

When peoples are more familiar with spreadsheets that they are familiar with ordinary people bad things happen. Look around the cabinet. What do you see? They don't have a clue about what it takes to live the life of ordinary individuals that always have be chasing rabbits, always living with the uncertainty of being able or not being able to pay bills.

Because they are totally out of touch with realities of John Smith and Mrs Smith they go around talking about policies that are good for posturing and self-adulation instead of getting to grip with the real needs of those they supposedly stand to represent. By elections will be lost, local elections will be lost and ultimately a General Election will be lost. If you trully believe that falling into desperate situations and having to live on the streets is a 'lifestyle choice' then nothing else needs to be said about how out of touch you are.

Housing lists for social accommodation get longer and longer, the cost of rented accommodation is beyond most peoples' means as are unaffordable mortgages. Then you decide to throw people a few bones to supposedly allow them to cope with rising utility bills and consider that by doing so you are some kind of Robin Hood. No wonder qualified and newly qualified teachers are leaving the profession. They are supposed to be employed to teach and end up having to cope with worsening social situations in the classroom.

I can't wait to see a new General Election. I want everybody to get in touch with reality. As I have stated in many articles, I keep asking about the Dream. What is the Dream? All we get is procrastination, posturing, self-adulation and false promises.

Coming to the issue of migration and processing of applications, is there a backlog when dealing with applications that leads to all kind of irregularities? Don't have enough staff working at the Home Office? What are you waiting for? When will you employ enough staff to deal with the backlog when things get worse and worse? If you don't have the will to do what needs to be done, step aside and allow somebody else to do it.

Suella Braverman: to say that people that live on the streets have made a lifestyle choice is a Marie Antoinette moment

 

To say that people that live on the streets have made a lifestyle choice is a Marie Antoinette moment

What the Home Secretary has said is nail in the coffin of the Conservative Party. Insensitive, careless, brutal - adjectives that perfectly describe Suella Braverman's attitude towards a social problem that has been getting increasingly worse.

In the meantime, Conservative MPs keep making headlines by losing the whip of the Conservative Party and by-elections are being lost towards the greatest challenge ahead in May 2024. 

I have asked what is the Dream. There is no Dream. What the country is being offered is an absolute nightmare and this includes the imposition of a totalitarian state in which anybody who rises to criticize what is going wrong will be publicly hanged. Even for the most fervent members of the Conservative Party what is happening is absolutely intolerable. I reckon finding people willing to stand for the Conservative Party in elections will be increasingly difficult at a time when many of the big guns of the Conservative Party are not willing to stand. The Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt MP has already indicated that he will not be standing - some say for fear of losing like Michael Portillo. Earlier, the now former Secretary for Defense Ben Wallace MP also indicated that he will not be standing.

Once again, there is no Dream on offer. Realities on the ground tell us that what is on offer is an absolute nightmare. Insensitive, careless and brutal - once again the image that the present government is showing to members of the public. The now mythological 'Give them cakes' has been translated into something extremely real when winter approaches. Suella Braverman has indicated that 'tents will not be allowed'. So now people who have no access to housing because housing lists for those waiting for accommodation get steadily longer are being handed a death sentence.

The idea of passing laws that penalize people for criticizing what is happening in Britain does not belong in a democratic society. What next? People sent to jail for criticizing the government? 

In a few months time, the warmongers of today will be history

Whether it is USA, Britain, Germany, France, et cetera, one thing is certain: key warmongers of today will not be around for long.

How much time has Biden left? How much time has Rishi Sunak left? How much time Scholz and Macron have left?

Look at America. What is happening in Latin America? There was a time when in Uruguay the Colorado Party has an almost completely monopoly of power. Then came the Partido National, the other Conservative Party of Uruguay. What happened next? The Frente Amplio (Broad Front) took the reins of power and the conservative parties of Uruguay could only come back as a coalition. 

What is happening in Argentina, in Chile, in Brazil, even in Bolivia? The old certainties have disappeared. The Partido Justicialista arrived completely divided in the October round of elections to select the new Argentinian Parliament - with barely 30 something of support compared to a completely political grouping that also got 30 something. Now, we wait for the second round of elections to see who is elected President of Argentina and on what basis. If Milei manages to attract the attention of younger generations chances are that he could be the winner replacing both Justicialistas and Radicales. But as political commentators remarked during the first round of elections, the issue is fundamentally not who is in charge but what can whoever is in charge do to revert a 134% rate of inflation.

Strategies to scare people and deter them from supporting alternative political forces are failing to do the job. People don't want continuity. They want positive changes. They are tired of a bit of the same. In Germany of all places the idea of banning a political force that already represents more than twenty per cent of the electors is a sign of desperation. Olaf Scholz knows that he is walking on a high rope with failing political partners. The SPD tried to distance itself from CDU/CSU as coalition member precisely because it was losing support. FPD is losing support and SPD itself is losing support. So how will the German coalition last? In spite of what politicians and mass media say, how feasible is a coalition of Alternative für Deutschland and other conservative groups. In the days of Angela Merkel, local CDU representatives were comfortable enough to work together with Alternative für Deutschland.

France is a bit of a puzzle. Macron is unpopular, but fears about the rise of Rassemblement National motivated some people to support what they did not like. Marine Le Pen did the right thing by choosing to have different young leaders to attract younger generations of voters.

Both in Germany and in France, political parties are exploiting what is happening in Palestine. Never mind what is happening in Palestine if what happens in Palestine helps them promote a certain narrative seeking to advance Nationalism in Germany and in France. Are you really and truly German? Are you really and truly French? Politics moves towards identity politics. You belong or you don't belong. You are part of the national culture or you are not part of the national culture. Multiculturalism is seen as a failure and Identity politics is no friend of Multiculturalism.

In Britain, with differences in political language approach, the message is clear: 'Multiculturalism is becoming a National Security issue' and the Home Secretary - herself a member of an ethnic minority - is investing a lot of political capital going against Multiculturalism. She does not explicitily say it, but the nature of what she is saying is obviously going against Multiculturalism. Other political operators are less shy and strictly say 'that is not British, they are not British'. She is diving the country and Mosques are becoming a target again. Not a target for people like Paul Golding that has dedicated his political career to attack Mulisms. They are becoming a target for the privileged political classes, because the privileged classes are closer to Jewish interests than they are to Muslim interests.

For one reason or another, Identity Politics is being promoted by people who used to say that they stood against Identity Politics. In a reversal of roles, Identity Politics is not been promoted by now defunct political forces like the BNP, the National Front or Britain First. Identity Politics is coming from the very top of British politics. Listen to commentators like Nigel Farage. What is he constantly talking about?

Whatever happens today you must remember that the warmongers of today will shortly be history. Even hawkish scarecrow Mr John Bolton might not be around too long. He criticizes Joe Biden saying that Jo Biden is not aggressive enough. Well, John Bolton was fired by President Trump because John Bolton wanted President Trump to be more aggressive. In retirement, a few cups of lime tea will do John Bolton a lot of good.

 

 

IRA: imagine what could have happened if some crackpot had decided to bomb Ireland?

 

Before partition, there was violence in Ireland and after the 1920 treaty that was supposed to have dealt with the issue of civil war, the IRA Irish Republican Army went on carrying attacks of the British mainland for countless years until a new treaty known as the Good Friday Agreement was signed to deal with grievances.

IRA members could be found anywhere, including any of the remaining parts of the United Kingdom, but this did not lead the British to use a cannon to kill a fly. One wonders what could have happened if Israelis had dealt with many of the early grievances surgically instead of resorting to full military deployments. 

Understandbly, the British did not resort to mass bombinappg raids or mass military operations. The British were much more clever than the Israelis and the issues were sorted out. Israel has been using constant military might without realising that every time they resorted to the use of military might they were seeding the sources of the next attack and this is exactly what Israel is doing right now. Israel is planting the seeds of more and worse violence in the near future. Because the USA - unlike Britain - has been more about brute force than about diplomacy, the USA has constantly exacerbated tensions in every conflict the USA has been involved. Making people hide does not solve any problems. The concept of deterrance is based on the presuption that if people are afraid enough they will no longer use similar methods. Such way of thinking is absolutely misguided. Pent up anger and frustration will lead the region in exactly the opposite direction and away from peace.After decades, the concept of deterrance has proven to be exactly the opposite of what should have been implemented. Because it trusts only might, Israel has spent more than 70 years in a permanent state of emergency and as soon as it lowered its guard what happened was bound to happen.

Deterrence is not the way forward. Deterrence will only make things worse for both Palestinians and Jews. Fear will not be conducive to peace.

Countries that support military operations in Palestine themselves fail to understand that policies of oppression and destruction can only lead to more insecurity and more violence. The same policies of oppression and destruction were applied over and over again in the past and we are still here facing the same dangers.