Sunday, 5 November 2023
The Money Bubble: Why politicians are completely out of touch with peoples' everyday realities
Saturday, 4 November 2023
Suella Braverman: to say that people that live on the streets have made a lifestyle choice is a Marie Antoinette moment
To say that people that live on the streets have made a lifestyle choice is a Marie Antoinette moment
Tuesday, 24 October 2023
Conservative Party: When a company goes into administration, we know the final chapter
The banner does not reflect reality. In fact, recent decisions made by Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister point in exactly the opposite direction.
There are no long-term decisions. In fact, you cannot trust that what is announced as a long-term decision will last long enough. In terms of a brighter future, all the promises about a brighter future cannot balance what is a disastrous present.
The country is pawned to the hilt and we worry about the day when investors will stop buying bonds if the rates paid for bonds are not dramatically raised, thus making public borrowing practically unpayable.
In fact, every indicator signals impending doom. Can you trust the promises made by what is a de-facto caretaker unelected Prime Minister? At this point in time, Rishi Sunak shares with the Liberal Democrats one fundamental characteristic. He can promise anything because he will not be around to deliver whatever he promises. In the present state of affairs, May 2024 seems - painfully - to be a long way away. His Chancellor of the Exchequer - Jeremy Hunt MP - will no longer be around either since he himself has said that he will not be standing in 2024. Investors will surely take notice of what is happening in British politics since a change of managers will surely mean a change of management style.
Britain needs clarity. Britain needs to know where it stands. Rather late, the Prime Minister is now talking about implementing the same kind of tax measures that he rejected when he was competing with now former Prime Minister Liz Truss. One could see that there were two Party Conferences. One was the official Party Conference and the other was the Fringe Party Conference. Some did not bother to attend either of them. Such is the state of disarray.
In more than one way, seeking some kind of relevance in geopolitics has been a diversion. Foreign powers - friends and foes - who follow very closely what is happening in the United Kingdom know better. Whatever is agreed today accounts for very little. Long-term decisions? The UK political cycle is pretty short and makes practically impossible to have long term policies since the next Parliament can choose at will not to implement what the previous Parliament approved or supported.
The UK goverment that he presides spoke about foreign deals with huge markets and promised a brilliant future for the British economy. It is like writing on water. There are no guarantees whatsoever that colourful and impressive speeches will be followed by real achievements. May 2024, an important month on the British political calendar. If what happened in a series of by-elections is translated into a real General Election, not even a space in Madame Tussauds could be guaranteed.
The Conservative Party has broken a new record. A bit more than a decade in power and at least 5 Prime Ministers.
Monday, 23 October 2023
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt not standing as MP in 2024?
The political life of an administration is directly linked to two people: The Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
The role played by Jeremy Hunt in the Conservative administration is a major role. We are a few months away of a crucial General Election and the role of the Chancellor of the Exchequer as main actor when it comes to implement economic policy can make or break a government long before a General Election. When Jeremy Hunt indicates that he might leave the Cabinet even before the General Election and/or that he will not be standing as Member of Parliament in 2024 sends shockwaves. He is basically cutting the branch of the tree on which British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is standing. Jeremy Hunt's calculations about not wanting to end his career with an electoral defeat show how little he trusts his own position and most importantly shows that he does not believe that there is going to be a Conservative government after the General Election. This is devastating.
It must be said that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has of recent spent a lot of time trying to fix the rest of the world and paying little attention to what is happening in Britain. Money is flocking away from Britain and when it came to a major project the word 'cancellation' was supposed to be countered with veiled announcement about hypothetical transport projects that have not even been considered. The Prime Minister cancelled a project that was already underway and all the work done at a cost of billions of Pound is therefore abandoned. All the monies already invested and all the jobs that were generated are going to be thrown into the bin to be classified as yet more waste. We tried to sweeten the pill by promising a Paradise made up of new transport projects that he knows that he will not be able to deliver because he might not be able to stay as Prime Minister beyond the next General Election. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak put an end to something real and promised thin air in exchange.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has disarmed Britain by sending abroad equipment and resources that cannot be easily replaced. For many years, the British Armed Forces have been disadvantaged and even when it came to pay in the public budget the British Armed Force came last. On the one hand, you see speeches full of aggressive language and on the other hand you see the realities of the British Armed Forces.
Education? Transport? Health? Public Safety? Immigration? When we should see improvements we see undeliverable promises and scandals of all sorts.
But one has to be fair and in fairness he could not do more because of the realities of the Conservative Party that ended up with a Prime Minister that was not elected by the Electorate and was not even elected by voting members of the Conservative Party. He couldn't possibly be a strong Prime Minister because he has no power base apart from the support he got as Member of Parliament. The fact that none other than his own Chancellor of the Exchequer is throwing the towel tells you that it is game over. In the end, where are the heavyweights of the Conservative Party?
We have got a Secretary for Defence - Grant Shapps - that believes that being the descendant of people who suffered persecution in Europe 70 or so years ago is a crucially important qualification to be Secretary for Defence. Never mind if he does not possess any specific qualification for the post as man in charge of dealing with the defense of the Realm. Where are the heavyweights? The real knower - Ben Wallace MP - not only resigned his post as Secretary for Defence. Ben Wallace MP also announced that he will not be standing for re-election in 2024.
We see cancellations, resignations and lack of expertise that blended with a profound lack of self-confidence are a perfect recipe for disaster.
Friday, 18 November 2022
Permacrisis: new word officially added to the English language
From now on, we live in a state of permacrisis or permanent crisis. The word has been officially added to the English language. Events of the last two years and whatever is there to come more than justify the new addition.
Despite the fact that the BBC, Sky and other media constantly fail to report what is happening not just in Britain but also abroad and especially in Continental Europe (for whatever reason they choose to 'blackout' the news and fail in their duty of care), Europe as a whole is in crisis. In Spain, hundreds of thousands went to the streets to demand better healthcare in Spain. The situation is critical due to mismanagement and lack of medical staff. Strike is the word across Europe.
Unfortunately, those in power seem to be more interested in geopolitics than in real politics and ordinary people will suffer as a consequence of mismanagement and short-sighted approaches. Politicians appear to be acting first and thinking later, completely oblivious to the consequences of the decisions that they are taking. Some say that we need to cut down taxes to restore financial health. Others say that we need to increase taxes to restore financial health. The summary of it all is, nobody knows with any degree of certainty what is going to happen.
Flipping a coin in the air is all we have left to do. As a consequence of it, we are paying enormous amounts of money to people who are just guessing and don't have a clue about what is going to happen. This is Democracy for you. They sit inside a debating chamber, make a few speeches about things they know nothing about and we have to accept political gambling because this is what Democracy has become.
The ones making the decisions have little or nothing to lose and it is up to ordinary members of the public to deal with the consequences of their decisions.
Utility bills go up and grocery bills go up and this is very much what leads to inflation. Now, in order to reduce inflation we raise taxes that will make utility bills and grocery bills to go up faster and lead to more inflation, but 'those who know say that increasing utility bills and grocery bills will reduce inflation'. You know that it does not make any sense. You are going to be more often than not completely out of pocket and you will have to cut down vital expenditure or get into additional and higher levels of debt. The most vulnerable stand to suffer most from what is happening but because the most vulnerable stand at the bottom of the pyramic there is a domino effect. Suddenly, the hospitality sector detects that less and less people are using their services because they cannot really afford to use their services. Balance sheets go into the red and unemployment raises its head. Not only that, is the hospitality sector suffers others sectors that provide services to the hospitality sector suffer and follow a similar paths. More unemployment is added to the pile and tax receipts start falling. So the Chacellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt MP has formally declared that Britain is in recession and recession means that from now on unemployment is guaranteed.
Paralizing the economy with more and more taxes, fuelling inflation while not promoting added economic activity, will lead us to a permacrisis with higher levels of debt, unemployment and social ills. Before we had health lockdown. Now we will have economic lockdown leading to social breakdown and political instability.
Tuesday, 1 November 2022
Jeremy Hunt: November 17th 2022 - Tax Day
A hole in public finances of more than 50 billion Pound will have to be plugged. Apart from the prospect of budget cuts affecting services, the alternative is a massive amount of tax increases.
Kwasi Kwarteng was slaughtered, thrown to the wolves, because he wanted to implement Liz Truss policies of tax reductions. What will happen to Jeremy Hunt when he announces a budget that contains punitive measures?
Let us remember that on the first round of the leadership election that led to the Premiership of Liz Truss the now Chancellor of the Exchequer didn't manage to progress beyond the first round. He was not popular among MPs and was not popular among the Membership of the Conservative Party. Now, the same man is going to propose a budget that goes against what is the declared ideological stance of the Conservative Party. Rising energy costs, rising interest rates plus rising taxes. If you are a business owner struggling to survive in the present financial environment, how are you going to react? Will you minimize your business to reduce fixed costs and in doing so sent your staff to the queue of the unemployed? A very harsh winter coming for those who lose their jobs when families are already struggling to pay for rental accommodation because they don't have the means to afford mortgage payments.
Wasn't Rishi Sunak the one who suggested that we should have a long term approach instead of shock therapy? Will such a budget be compatible with long term thinking? If Jeremy Hunt goes to far, this could the end of Jeremy Hunt and also the end of an already wavering Rishi Sunak? What next? Another leadership election?
Just a few months ago it was reported that recent interest rates will put more than 500,000 mortgages in jeopardy. Will more taxes and more unemployment make the situation better or worse? If the mortgage business falters, the financial system as a whole will be in serious trouble. We don't need even to explain what a wave of mortgage and load defaults will do to the economy.
Friday, 28 October 2022
Triple Lock and Pensions: Nothing is guaranteed
The subject of state pensions will surely cause global warming
The Conservative/Liberal Coalition set out the triple lock aimed at protecting the value of state pensions and in 2019 the Conservative Party Manifesto stated that for the duration of the present Parliament the triple lock would be maintained - although momentarily, during the pandemic, the triple lock was suspended and due to be restored in April 2023.
The pension is supposed to increase every year depending on which of the following items is highest:
1) inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Prices Index) 2) average wage increase or 3) 2.5%
This was before the present economic environment in which inflation shot upwards and is now above 10%. The present goverment led by Rishi Sunak will have to make a fundamental decision in terms of keeping the triple lock at least until the next General Election or abandoning the triple lock.
In a country in which the average age of the population is rising, telling voters that the government is going to abandon the triple lock is not a vote winner. There are also plans to postpone the age of retirement. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will have to make a statement on plans for tax and spending. Britain has one of the lowest state pensions when compared to other Western countries. and given present rates of inflation the value of state pensions is being eroded on a daily basis.
If the triple lock is abandoned, the value of state pensions will purely and simply collapse.
Monday, 15 May 2017
Why is Labour's Helen Goodman promoting the British National Party?
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Helen Goodman - Labour Party |
After the lethal attack against Jo Cox carried out by a man who the day before had asked and been denied mental support by the National Health Service and despite the efforts of the BBC, Sky News and the Political Establishment to depict the attack as a political motivated attack, the truth is that the said attack was de facto the consequence of a campaign of persecution against people whose only crime is not to agree with the policies of the so called mainstream political parties including the Labour Party.
Britain might be the only country in the entire world in which members of a legal political party that lawfully participes in elections are banned from certain professions. This is an interesting aspect remembering that many criticise National Socialist Germany for banning Jews from certain professions. Here the similarities between what Britain is doing and what happened in the regime headed by Adolf Hitler.
The then so-called anti-racist Member of Parliament launched a racist against Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt on Twitter. Mr Hunt's wife happens to be Chinese and the then Labour MP Helen Goodman publicly insulted her for being Chinese.
When other politicians including members of her own party reacted, she was forced to delete the twit and apologise but what counts are first intentions. She publicly used the ethnicity of the wife of Mr Hunt to launch a politically motivated attack.
In a letter addressed to Helen Goodman, the British National Party Leader Adam Walker explains his reasons to stand in the Bishop Aukland Constituency.