Economic realism vs Geopolitcs: Alternative für Deutschland

 

Economic realism vs Geopolitcs

The options are pretty clear. Germany is a manufacturing country that has been losing jobs in manufacturing because German companies have been pushed out of Germany due to high energy costs.

It is also a country is which the vast majority of migrants live on benefits and produce very little or nothing for the German economy.

Understandably then lowering energy costs and throwing out unproductive foreigners that live at the expense of the German peoples are two major priorities. This is why Elon Musk stated that Alternative für Deutschland is the only German political party that can save Germany.

Buying things cheap somewhere else when jobs are vanishing in your own country is not a valid alternative.

High taxation is a requirement to finance people who are out of work. Therefore, the only alternative is to get rid of beggars and lower taxes to restore the strengths of the German economy. And a permanent flow of additional jobs is also a requirement for political and social stability.

The status quo is a non non. It is precisely the status quo has created the present mess.

At the end of the day, each country has different realities and overlooking differences leads to the wrong conclusions. There are also historical realities and each country is bound to react differently and have different priorities.

German Coalition: Vote of Confidence due to take place in January will actually take place on December 16th 2024

 

The days of Olaf Scholz as German Chancellor could be numbered. 

The vote originally planned for January 2025 is due to take place on December 16th, 2024 and the Federal Election will actually take place in February.

This can change quite a lot in German politics at a time when urgent measures are needed to sort out German economics.

Germany was remarklably absent from a top meeting about the Environment. The German government has more pressing concerns when the Green Party barely has a calculated 10 per cent support across Germany and in three state elections only managed to get 7 representatives elected out of 120 in Saxony and none in Thuringen and none in Brandenburg.

As part of a deal to get a coalition together, hawkish Annalena Baerbock got chosen as Minister for Foreign Affairs. The fact that she could be on her way out within weeks would be a step forward towards peace in Europe.But the outcome of the Federal Election will tell the story and possibly write a new script.

The outsted Finance Minister Christian Lindner wanted to stop sending money to Ukraine by sending Taurus missiles instead. To have a member of FDP, a Junior member of the coalition, dictating foreign policy would have been a serious error of judgment. Olaf Scholz was asking to change rules to allow more borrowing. Christian Lindner refused to change the rules abour borrowing and decided to blackmail the German Chancellor to force him to adopt an idea he is very much against because of the dangerous implications of having Germany as the initiator of a European-wide conflict. FDP has no foot to stand on.

But money is in short supply and recent announcements about major German industrial players talking about factory closures and lays offs does not help. Energy and migration are bound to become even more important subjects. Increasing the Defense Budget? Where are the monies going to come from? NATO quotas could simply be unreachable. Listening to individuals like Ursula von der Layen or Emmanuel Macron might make somebody think that there are resources aplenty. Well, no. France is running huge deficits and Germany faces borrowing limitations. Any monies sent Eastwards come from borrowing. Will Germany and France - like Britain - go for tax rises? What effect would tax rises produce when unemployment is rising? What political effects will rising unemployment produce?

 

Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 - Budget Day

 

This is personal, stated the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. She refers to realities of the 1980s and 1990s. The Chancellor's efforts to gather capital will drag hundreds of thousands more people into paying tax and even more into higher rates as their pay rises, indicates none other than The Guardian.

Could a personal crusade turn into a nightmare? Changing fiscal rules to disguise debt making it appear as something else does not change the fact that it will still be borrowing. So more taxes and more borrowing that will be increased for public interest, according to the Chancellor.

Ordinary folk and many business were badly hit by the Covid Pandemic and the measures implemented to deal with the Covid Pandemic. After that, people and many business were hit by the energy crise generated by the conflict in Ukraine and the measures adopted against the Russian Federation. 

Now, they stand to be hit again by taxation and potentially higher prices of utilities, housing and daily shopping.

But the Chancellor of the Exchequer still says that she will implement the budget in a way that she will 'protect the living standards of working people'. 

Well, in an interview made in Washington, USA, Rachel Reeves - perhaps inadvertently - made promises that she will have to deliver. If she does not deliver and if the measures implemented by the Labour government become a de facto nightmare, then this will create a widely open door for another Conservative government.

Starting on Wednesday, October 30th, 2024, the government will have to deliver and with every failure, and every new crise, there will be many by-elections along the way in which people will express their discontent.

She talks about building schools and hospitals. Well, what will she do about nurses salaries that are not enough to rent a one bedroom flat? If living costs keep rising, this will be a de facto devaluation of salaries and a worsening of living standards. Before she goes around building schools and hospitals, she will have to look carefully at salaries actually paid to teachers and NHS staff. 

Even with the triple lock, state pensions are not enough to rent a one bedroom flat. State pensions are totally insufficient. Taxing state pensions and private pensions can only worsen an already bad situation. And this is going to do nothing to 'protect living standards'.  

Oil and Gas: they never learn

When in the 1970s, Britain was going under, North Sea Oil and Gas saved the day. When the war in Ukraine started the conflict led to a shortage of oil and gas that led many European countries and Britain to harsh economic realities.

Now, Britain has a Labour government that is bent on taxing oil and gas companies to the hilt. Companies pay almost 80% as taxes. There comes a point when exploration and production costs are no longer sustainable and the natural consequence is that the oil and gas business can become no longer viable. We already have the experience of what happened to British shipyards that could not remain competitive. They went under. They could not survive.

Now, we have a vociferous government that is bent in getting Britain into several wars, wars that could make oil and gas unattainable, unreachable. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and others happen to be in a region that could be engulfed by war and if that happens access to oil and gas produced in such region will no longer be a possibility. What will happen then? What happened before when we had no access to oil and gas?

The British Prime Minister that does not know what a woman is believes that carbon capture is energy production. The level of stupidity has risen exponentially. He talks about alternatives. Well, private business might not be interested in such alternatives when they don't make sense for business. In fact, in recent times that been public tenders and the private sector showed no interest in bidding.

It could be the case that everything will have to be financed mostly with public monies coming from taxation and not with private investment. But in the meantime, while the British governent struggles to transform dreams into reality we might find ourselves facing blackouts and mass unemployment should there be a military conflict that prevents from having access to present energy sources. 

Labour: Cutting consumption with higher taxes, higher utility prices and higher prices in the shops will lead to mass unemployment

 

Even before the first budget is presented in Parliament, the Labour government has cut disposable income with higher taxes, higher utility prices and higher prices in the shops. 

In a reminder of what happened during the Covid Pandemic when lockdowns reduced economic activity dramatically to the point that the then Conservative government had to implement furloughs schemes to try to save ailing companies and prevent massive job losses, the Labour government now seems to intend to cause yet another financial crise.

Cutting disposable income in the United Kingdom while increasing the amount of monies thrown into a foreign bottomless barrel is a strategy for disaster. Money, money, money but not for Britain. Is this a government for the United Kingdom?

In the meantime, Prime Minister Keir Starmer travels around the world, organising new wars and leaving a trail of Pounds as he smiles for television cameras, but.... never mind... private donations for his wife's wardrobe are always welcomed.

When eve supermarket chains like Tesco are closing down branches, you can foresee what the future will be as numbers of cases of shoplifting in supermarkets increase exponentially.

 

 

Keir Starmer: is he a Labour Labour Party Leader?

From the very beginning, and despite a massive majority in terms of number of Members of Parliament representing, the Labour Party has been struggling and will presumably continue to struggle.

None other than Keir Starmer is asking whoever remains loyal to the leadership not to vote for the fuel winter allowance that benefits pensioners in the United Kingdom. Keir Starmer want to get rid of it and cannot trust his own MPs. This week in the House of Commons, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Independents and presumably several Labour Party MPs might vote against the Labour goveernment. What will happen is tens of Labour MPs vote against the Labour government? Will they all be suspended?

Speaking openly and directly, many now former Labour voters and former Labour Party supporters are saying the Labour Party is no longer a Labour Party and talking about voting for other political parties because the Labour Party does not represent them anymore.

If Labour Party grassroots turn against the Labour Party, who knows what could happen at the next elections. There will be Council Elections across London in 2026 and guess what.... Keir Starmer's constituency is a London constituency. If as a reaction Labour voters across Greater London turn against the Labour Party the situation will be not just uncomfortable, but also very difficult in political terms. There will also be by-elections coming up. The political honeymoon is over even before the first budget is announced.

Britain: long before the first official budget is published, announcements are not encouraging

As part of point scoring, two digit salary increases are announced for public workers and Union workers while, at the same time, measures to support pensioners are discontinued and new increases of utility bills are announced.

Presumably, in october, we are going to be told about a tax shower. So get your spreadsheets ready because it is going to take some time to calculate how much ordinary britons are gong to be hit with a barrage of taxes and utility bills that sooner than later are going to be reflected on the cost of basic items of the family basket. Nominal values might be going up but real values are going to make you poorer.

We are really and truly talking about a new period of austerity, but this time under a Labour government. The Labour Party played a new version of 'read my lips, no more taxes' and the gullible fell for it. People are going to be taxed to the hilt and beyond. Let's look at rental prices. They were already beyond reach for a growing number of peoples.

If you are going to have even less disposable income, things can only be worse and one of the most worrying bits for any economy is a massive reduction of consumption. Using Covid as an example, if people - deterred by rising taxes and rising utility bills - start consuming less and less then already struggling businesses will go out of business pushing upwards unemployment numbers.

In any case, get your spreadsheets ready. 

Labour will put up taxes: no matter how many times they try to deny it, improvements have to be paid for

 

No matter how many times, Keir Starmer or any other Labour party supporter tries to deny it, the fact remains that promises made by the Labour Party will have to be paid for by rising taxes and Council Tax is the one thing that will be targetted as it was targetted in Birmingham to try to rescue Birmingham from bankruptcy. 

You cannot increase salaries across the public sector and invest monies to rescue the British Armed Forces from extermination without paying for it with higher taxes. For many, next July is going to be a very hot summer and not just because of weather conditions. 

Remember: there is no free lunch. And we must start wondering how rising taxes and rising prices in the shops are going to affect the economy and what the political consequences will be for the country as a whole. Any worsening of financial circumstances will push people towards extremes.

Keir Starmer: Labour has changed. No rise of Income Tax or National Insurance?

 

There was a candidate in times past standing for election in Latin America. He said that he was going to build roads that could allow motorists to save money. The brilliant idea, he said, was to build one side of the roads going upwards and the other side of the roads going downwards.

Massive investment in salaries in the public sector and in Welfare without spending a penny? Somebody will have to pay for it.

'Read my lips', was the catch phrase of President George Bush Sr.

Monies for salaries and welfare will have come from somewhere - either from borrowing or from higher taxes or from both borrowing and higher taxes. There is no way out. Father Christmas promises will not do. Public budgets will have to be financed with sound economics or we will end up having Britain as the new Slough or the new Birmingham. What was the emergency measure approved for Bimingham? A rise of Council Tax to try to shore up a bankrupt authority that, in spite of tax rises, was forced to stop offering vital services.

We are at a crosswords. Grant Shapps made promises about defense that cannot be delivered - not even by cutting down other vital sectors of the administration. The fact remains that Britain is unfit for war because Britain does no longer have the industries that supported strong military capabilities. But things are a lot worse than that. In a country with more than 60 million people, the numbers of those serving in the Armed Forces are below 70,000 and those capable and fit enough for combat are far below than that. So the Conservative proposal in terms of bringing in National Service are not just a realistic solution, but the only solution available. Keir Starmer should be asked about how you can fight a war without Armed Forces.

 

Rachel Reeves: Do you increase salaries across the public sector without raising taxes?

 

Just hours ago the Labour Party launched an attack against Conservative policies regarding National Service and possibly concription because of the cost of such policies. But after that, Labour Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves stated that a Labour government would increase salaries across the public sector. Well, how much will it cost to increase salaries across the public sector. I reckon that it would be a lot more than National Service or Conscription.

Right before an election the mountain of contradictions rises on a daily basis. Just before Rachel Reeves spoke about salary increases in the public sector, Keir Starmer said that he would not get rid of the two children cap when it comes to Children Benefits in spite of the fact that he would want to do so. I guess the Labor Leader was thinking about cost of getting rid of the two children cap.

Services are necessary, but services cost monies that need to be paid with higher taxes at a time when interest paid on public borrowing is extraordinarily high. Labour says that it will not implement austerity, but you cannot promise to pay high interest on public borrowing and raise salaries without increasing taxes. And if you start increasing taxes, you can guarantee that companies that pay higher taxes are going to turn those higher tax payments into higher prices to balance the books. There is also the danger that higher taxes will lower consumption thus affecting the monies that the state can collect as taxes. Higher rates and lower amount of monies coming to the Treasury. And what about companies that are struggling to make ends meet? Less customers coming through the doors and higher taxes pushing up prices are not a recipe for success.

This is the way it works. If you collect 100 Pound as taxes and suddenly prices go up, then you will collect 100 Pound as taxes but only nominally. You are going to be able to buy less with your 100 Pound. State employees will be getting salaries that are worth less money in spite of nominal increases.

If you are paying 2500 for rent and suddenly the cost of renting goes up to 3500 then your salary has actually been devalued. Nominal increases will make things a lot worse.

An inconvenient truth: you can’t sell the green revolution to people who can’t afford it - Gaby Hinsliff

Even in the Labour Party some people are starting to realize the foolishness of Net Zero. As Gaby Hinsliff writes on The Guardian, 'an inconvenient truth: you can't sell the green revolution to people who can't afford it.'

The reality is that transport links in the United Kingdom are very poor. If you go out of the main urban areas, or even inside urban areas, the provision of public transpor is notoriously insufficient. Therefore, penalizing people for using cars or preventing people from using cars is madness.

Local authorities are using so called green policies to extract money that is in effect an increase in Council Tax. If you have to pay Congestion Charge and ULEZ, pay for parking and parking permits, you are in effect paying additional Council Tax because of the proceedings will end up in the hands of local authorities. 

Nobody has even calculated the impact of such taxes on the local economy in ways that will affect more those who have less. This wave of taxations has been promoted by the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and by all the do-gooders that want to make good with somebody else's money. And what would will be done when local economies collapse under the burden of taxation and people are forced out of work?

You can't sell the green revolutoin to people who can't afford it. This is something that Keir Starmer and all other proponents of Net Zero and the upper class weirdoes that go around making a nuisance of themselves should be thinking about.

Permacrisis: new word officially added to the English language

From now on, we live in a state of permacrisis or permanent crisis. The word has been officially added to the English language. Events of the last two years and whatever is there to come more than justify the new addition. 

Despite the fact that the BBC, Sky and other media constantly fail to report what is happening not just in Britain but also abroad and especially in Continental Europe (for whatever reason they choose to 'blackout' the news and fail in their duty of care), Europe as a whole is in crisis. In Spain, hundreds of thousands went to the streets to demand better healthcare in Spain. The situation is critical due to mismanagement and lack of medical staff. Strike is the word across Europe. 

Unfortunately, those in power seem to be more interested in geopolitics than in real politics and ordinary people will suffer as a consequence of mismanagement and short-sighted approaches. Politicians appear to be acting first and thinking later, completely oblivious to the consequences of the decisions that they are taking. Some say that we need to cut down taxes to restore financial health. Others say that we need to increase taxes to restore financial health. The summary of it all is, nobody knows with any degree of certainty what is going to happen.

Flipping a coin in the air is all we have left to do. As a consequence of it, we are paying enormous amounts of money to people who are just guessing and don't have a clue about what is going to happen. This is Democracy for you. They sit inside a debating chamber, make a few speeches about things they know nothing about and we have to accept political gambling because this is what Democracy has become.

The ones making the decisions have little or nothing to lose and it is up to ordinary members of the public to deal with the consequences of their decisions.

Utility bills go up and grocery bills go up and this is very much what leads to inflation. Now, in order to reduce inflation we raise taxes that will make utility bills and grocery bills to go up faster and lead to more inflation, but 'those who know say that increasing utility bills and grocery bills will reduce inflation'. You know that it does not make any sense. You are going to be more often than not completely out of pocket and you will have to cut down vital expenditure or get into additional and higher levels of debt. The most vulnerable stand to suffer most from what is happening but because the most vulnerable stand at the bottom of the pyramic there is a domino effect. Suddenly, the hospitality sector detects that less and less people are using their services because they cannot really afford to use their services. Balance sheets go into the red and unemployment raises its head. Not only that, is the hospitality sector suffers others sectors that provide services to the hospitality sector suffer and follow a similar paths. More unemployment is added to the pile and tax receipts start falling. So the Chacellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt MP has formally declared that Britain is in recession and recession means that from now on unemployment is guaranteed.

Paralizing the economy with more and more taxes, fuelling inflation while not promoting added economic activity, will lead us to a permacrisis with higher levels of debt, unemployment and social ills. Before we had health lockdown. Now we will have economic lockdown leading to social breakdown and political instability.

  

 

People who pay more taxes must have a greater say in public affairs very much like a shareholder in a private company

Our Democracy is imperfect because the votes of those who contribute very little have the same weight of the votes of those who contribute a lot. The votes of those who pay more in taxes should count more than the votes of those who pay little or nothing. 

If you are a shaholder in a private company, your decision power depends on the number of shares that you have got and Democracy shouldn't be any different. You put more money in the pot then you should have more power to decide what to do and what not to do.

Therefore, people would be encouraged to contribute to more to have a greater say in public affairs. In Britain, it was necessary to have something to lose to be able to have a vote. Nowadays, everybody votes regardless of their contributions and this is wrong. The rule should be: 'Do you want to have a greater say? Contribute more.' The vote of a vagrant has the same power of the vote of a captain of industry. This wrong. The reason our Democracy is falling apart is that the idle are awarded the same rights that are awarded to those who work hard.

Countdown: Rishi Sunak becomes British Prime Minister

 

Rishi Sunak becomes British Prime Minister and this in itself is a bit like a Christian entering the Roman Colloseum to be eaten by lions.

Given the fate of his precedecessors in recent times, the newly elected Prime Minister is well advised to keep his friends close and his enemies closer.

Perhaps this is the idea of integrating his Cabinet with people from various sides of the political map of the Conservative Party.

Hopefully, his political honeymoon will last longer but, as always, in British politics 24 hours seem like an eternity and he is very much aware that he is cruising along very treacherous waters.

It has been well established that when the electorate votes, the electorate votes for a particular political party and not for an individual. Boris Johson managed to get a majority of more than 80 seats in the House of Commons and this, at least theoretically, would give him enough room to maneuver. Having said that, with such a majority neither Boris Johnson nor Liz Truss managed to survive. The issue is then not British voters as a whole, but loyalties within the Conservative Party. For many, having avoided a General Election until now is a blessing as many risked having their seats go up in smoke if a General Election took place in the present circumstances.

The next hurdle is January 2023, month when travelling fares are usually adjusted according to rate of inflation. The British government managed to alley fears about utility rates rises until April 2023, but it cannot go on providing lifeboats if inflation keeps going up. Although TFL is said to have been thinking about a 4% fares rise, TFL has no control of other areas of public transport. The present inflation rates is above 10%. Rises can only be avoided with bigger subsidies and in the end no one wins because bigger subsidies are paid with borrowed monies. If we try to avoid borrowing then we have to think about higher taxes or budget cuts.

Lizz Truss bet on lower taxes as a way of boosting economic activity. Rishi Sunak campaigned to avoid tax cuts and therefore will have to get better results to avoid entering a cycle of higher taxes and falling tax receipts that could ultimately push the country towards austerity budgets.

Inflation is eating away public budgets. If this goes on, very soon public administration bodies, local and regional authorities will ran out of money and will be unable to maintain service levels.

Conservative Party about to break one of two new records?

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the third female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

The original article indicated 'second female Prime Minister' when in fact it should have been said that she would be the third female Prime Minister. We totally forgot Theresa May. 

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

British Conservative Party is about to break a record: first Asian Prime Minister or second female Prime Minister

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the second female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

 

Think Tank (or Sink Tank) proposes to cut state pensions

A true recipe for disaster. A Think Tank (or shall we should say a 'Sink Tank', has proposed to cut down state pension and lower taxes. So let's see, already deprived pensioners will get even less money as pensions (pensions are already taxed) and on top of that in an economy that is collecting less tax with tax revenues falling the "SINK TANK" proposes to collect even less tax at a time when the deficit is growing and the balance of trade is negative. Brilliant!

From the News:

Cut state pension in half and lower taxes, says think tank

Institute of Economic Affairs proposes a radical solution to solve the ballooning cost of paying Britain's pensioners

Maybe somebody will propose hanging those who reach pensionable age because it costs too much to pay pensioners. What about gas chambers to save cost? We are reaching the highest levels of irrationality and the number of idiots seems to be rising.

Pensioners work and because they work they get their pensions. Pensions are not a charitable payment. People have paid for their pensions and they are entitled to receive their pensions.

Employment rises but wages fall. What about pensions?

Employment rises but wages fall. What about pensions?

The news that employment is rising but wages are falling make the Bank of England postpone the announced rise of interest rates. Less income also means less savings for pensions and the realisation that with lower wages the aspiration of buying or renting homes might be nothing more than an aspiration when banks are only lending the equivalent of three annual salaries when the amount required to be able to have a mortgage is not less than eight annual salaries.

The gap between the monies available for pensions and the monies that would be required to be able to provide pensions is also growing at a faster pace than ever before because savings are not a generating high yields while interest rates remain relatively low.

Therefore, there is a vicious circle. People earn less. Because people earn less the Bank of England cannot take the risk of putting up interest rates without facing the possibility of millions losing their homes because they cannot afford monthly payments at higher interest rates. While this is happening, people who earn less save less and get less interest payments for what they save. Putting up salaries would mean less capital available to employ more people and having less people employed means having to make more welfare payments.

The situation is not sustainable because sooner than later retirement age will come and millions of people who earn little and have no savings will have not enough pension funds or no pension at all as retirement age is rising because there is not enough money available to pay pensions.