China: Britain´s reaction was expected

 

Britain´s reaction was expected

It is not personal. It is just business.

In a New World Order, then each operator is free to choose who to do business with. As EU celebrates a new agreement with India, UK celebrates an agreement with China.

Today, more than ever before, countries are seeking reassurance. With regards to threats of takeover and financial threats, players have decided to go their own way and do business with whoever they can do business with.

In the meantime, the value of the US Dollar keeps falling and investors are running for cover investing in precious metals and in whatever assets they can get hold of that offer them security. In the US, despite disagreements, Democrats and Republicans are doing deals to prevent yet another Federal Budget crisis, but this means surrendering control over an ever rising US debt.

Whatever resources the US can get hold of by invading or threatening other countries, the enormity of the US debt is pushing the value of the US currency lower and lower.

 

EU heats up: Olaf Scholz urgent travel to the Russian Federation

The announcement by Ukraine that it would halt vital supplies to the European Union prompted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urgent trip to the Russian Federation.

Energy has been the key for the survival of the European Union and most importantly for the most important country of the European Union, the Federal Republic of Germany. Without energy, German manufacturing strength and support of its political system are in doubt. 

Germany faces a Federal Election in a few weeks time and the financial and industrial outcome is not brilliant. In the words of Alexander Gauland, co-founder of Alternative für Deutschland - the worse the situation becomes, the better for Alternative für Deutschland - and things are getting pretty bad. Ukraine is threatening the survival of the European Union. To make matters worse, an attack perpetrated today in Germany caused the death of several people and more than a 100 people were injured. It  does not play well in German politics when migration is one of the hottest topics.

As President Bill Clinton stated, 'it is the economy, stupid'. The German economy, its political stability, migration and geopolitical games are part of the same package.

The assertion that Alternative für Deutschland is the only political party that can save Germany did not go well with the usual culprits of the so called mainstream political parties that are used to win elections lying about those who challenge a disastrous status quo.

Angela Merkel started the debacle when she panicked and decided to get rid of nuclear power making Germany practically entirely dependent on foreign energy imports. The now former coalition headed by Olaf Scholz did the rest by associating itself with a warmongering movement that compromised vital energy supplies. No nuclear power, no oil, no gas. What could go wrong?

Olaf Scholz knows full well that energy shortages will be politically disastrous for so called mainstream political parties that do not protect fundamental German interests. Olaf Scholz knows in what could be the last days of his political career as German Chancellor that there are even greater risks that could lead to the disintegration of the European Union. There are conflicting interests within the European Union and this could well push countries to secede to follow their own paths. The promised Paradise looks increasingle like Hell on Earth.

Shoemaker makes Shoes: Something that does not apply to the present government

When you have people who have never ever been in business and don't have a clue about running a business, when you have people making decisions about farming when the closest they have been to managing a farm is standing near the shelves of a supermarket, you know that the country is in trouble.

Ideology does not replace knowledge and expertise, but we have got politicians driven by blind ideology deciding what is best for the country. So, if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong.

First thing you learn about economics is that the closest the factory is to raw materials the lower production costs will be, but then comes Ed Miliband and decides to prevent new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

How old was he when Britain was going over the edge because of lack of oil and gas? In the 1970s, Britain was saved by the discovery of oil and gas in the North Sea, but now the all knowledgeable Marxist politician wants to prevent any more exploration for oil and gas.

Britain buys already too much foodstuff abroad so reducing the number of farms on British soil will force Britain to buy even more foodstuff abroad as population keeps growing. What does Labour do? Implements tax measures that will put more and more farms out of business thus reducing production in the United Kingdom.

Every step of the way, Labour policies are based on ignorance, ideological hatred and misconceptions and the alternative is, as it always have been, to borrow more and to produce less. When Labour talks about growth, Labour is not talking about economic growth. Labour is talking about indebtedness growth. And then when they can borrow no more, they will propose massive cuts that will leave people ever poorer.

The consequences of economic mismanagement will be worse than the Covid Pandemic and the energy crisis combined and this could become a very long Winter of Discontent that will end up with tears, and even spilt blood.

Here came the budget: Main target NHS and Second target the economy and particularly interest rates and growth.

The general thinking is that the Labour government will inflict pain earlier with the hope that near the next General Election the numbers will be much better to produce good feelings amongst voters. But this is a gamble by a government that publicly stated that if they had not inherited interest rates that were already going down the present announcements about borrowing could not have been made. 

Everything is based on the presumption that the economy will improve, that interest rates will go down and that repaying the borrowing will become easier. Another factor is promised improvements of the NHS. If the economy does not improve and if improvements promised regarding the NHS are not delivered then this would be a double political wammy that could bring down the present government at the next General Election.

The hope is that no crise like the Covid Pandemic or the energy crise generated by sanctions implemented against the Russian Federation or anything of the sort happens from now until the next General Election. Anything that would require much more borrowing and generate emergency conditions, negatively affecting. the economy, is not welcome. 

Et ceteris paribus? All other things being equal? Expecting that nothing will happen along the way that could change or derail present plans is a very negligent attitude. Things are bound to change. There are crucial ongoing conflicts and the seeds for more conflicts are being planted.

Now, lets have a look at potential trading partners. What is the situation in Europe? What is the situation in the Americas? What is the situation in Africa and Oceania? What is the situation regarding new players that are rising and increasing mutual cooperation?

The belief that new global associations will remain focused on the East and will not spread towards the West is extremely naive. We now live not in a bipolar world. We live in a multipolar world. In which direction the Americas, Africa, and Oceania will go is not a given. But present trends indicate that BRICS is making inroads. Those joining BRICS happen to be the most populous countries in the world. They also happen to be those which tend to have more resources in terms of raw materials. 

Founding countries? Russian Federation, China, India and Brazil. While the main Western countries have been involved in a rising number of conflicts, China has been spreading financially and economically across key regions of the world. The impopularity of the Western approach when dealing with conflicts is spreading and such impopularity does not benefit Western countries. China has not been involved in any major conflict. In fact, it is gathering more and more influence in countries that are far away from China.

Israel vs Iran: is this the real show?

 Is Israel versus Iran the real show?

We hear the news and see mass media flooded with articles about the dangers of widespread war in the Middle East and Asia Minor. We hear the news about North Koreans joining the fight in Ukraine. It is difficult to ascertain the real dimension of what we have been told. 

The real issue of widespred war in the Middle East and Asia Minor are not Israel or Iran, for that matter. The real issue are the vast amounts of oil and gas spread across the entire region. Kuwair, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and so forth. If the Middle East and Asia Minor were to go up in smoke this will be a catastrophe for the world economy as a whole and there would be massive political consequences.

Both Israel and Iran have to play according to the rules. The United States of America might care about Iran, but the USA cares more about money and as long as money is being made the lives of hundreds of thousands don't matter at all, but the monies being made by shareholders matter more than human lives.

As long as the business of war keeps going and does not get out of control threatening the value of shares it is business as usual. Don't attack nuclear facilities! Don't attack oil reserves! Don't do anything that could ruin the business of war. Both Israel and Iran have to play for their own public and therefore they have to do something to prove that they are doing something.

We are dealing with Jews that do not give a damn about Jews, people for whom their own people matter very little as long as they get what they want. We are dealing with the Bernie Madoffs of geopolitics. Benjamin Netanyahu is a Bernie Madoff of geopolitics. The massacres carried out by Israel will continue. Israel has a license to kill as long as the business of war goes on as usual and monies are being made, but the Bernie Madoff also know that there are limitations. When Iran threatens to attack all those who help Israel there are direct references to oil and gas countries in the region. So any action against Iran has to be limited not to push Iran to attack the real targets in the Middle East and Asia Minor. We know how things are now under the present US Administration and I reckon that things will not change dramatically under a new US Administration because the interests are the same and the people actually running the circus are the same.

With regards to North Korea, I reckon that Ukraine is for North Korea what the Spain's Civil War was for the Wehrmacht: a training ground. North Korea has been in isolation and has not had any opporunity to test its Army in real battles. Although the number of North Korean troops is minimal, Ukraine can provide valuable opportunities. It also sends the message of unity: boys, we are all in it together. Military cooperation at every level. About 3,000 North Korean troops will not make any major difference in the conduct of the war, from a Russian standpoint as the Russian Federation has mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops.

Much of what Western politicians say is no more than chit chat, a propaganda effort to justify the existence of people who are absolutely irrelevant. NATO is a business to keep money rolling in for shareholders. Any monies that go into the pockets of shareholders are not monies that serve the general public. They are not invested in health, education, transport, infra-structure and so forth. The most important problems remain forever unsolved and this is why we have got the problems that we have got with more and more people facing miserable lives.  

Labour: Cutting consumption with higher taxes, higher utility prices and higher prices in the shops will lead to mass unemployment

 

Even before the first budget is presented in Parliament, the Labour government has cut disposable income with higher taxes, higher utility prices and higher prices in the shops. 

In a reminder of what happened during the Covid Pandemic when lockdowns reduced economic activity dramatically to the point that the then Conservative government had to implement furloughs schemes to try to save ailing companies and prevent massive job losses, the Labour government now seems to intend to cause yet another financial crise.

Cutting disposable income in the United Kingdom while increasing the amount of monies thrown into a foreign bottomless barrel is a strategy for disaster. Money, money, money but not for Britain. Is this a government for the United Kingdom?

In the meantime, Prime Minister Keir Starmer travels around the world, organising new wars and leaving a trail of Pounds as he smiles for television cameras, but.... never mind... private donations for his wife's wardrobe are always welcomed.

When eve supermarket chains like Tesco are closing down branches, you can foresee what the future will be as numbers of cases of shoplifting in supermarkets increase exponentially.

 

ULEZ: London ULEZ has national repercussions

With London being the capital city and with millions of people coming to London for all sorts of reasons, the impact of ULEZ will be felt nationwide. People from far across the United Kingdom will be impacted and this has severe connotations for all involved.

Think about commercial transportation and this includes food supplies coming to London. If transport companies have to pay for every single vehicle that comes to London every single day then the cost will reach consumers with the speed of light. People have been complaining that food prices in shops and supermarkets are going skyhigh.. Well, from the day ULEZ is implemented those prices are going to go up, making London a very expensive city to live in. This is actual inflation. The pint of milk that farmers get very little from is going to be more pricey. Distributors will not lose any money. They will just pass the cost onto customers.

If driving electric vehicles is going to be charged by the mile then, yet again, costs will go up. And then you add up all additional costs. Parking spaces, parking permits, commercial permits for companies working in London. If you come from Surrey or anywhere else in the UK and you come to work in London, you will have to pay all additional costs. The loft conversion or refurbishment that you have been saving for will be a lot more expensive. What about gas, electricity, water, telephones and Internet? If service companies have to pay to move around London, they are going to pass the costs to you. Energy costs migth be going down, but as taxes go up the savings of lower energy costs will be lost several times - and especially because bringing fuel into London will cost more. Fuel is transported with tankers and if driving a tanker into London costs more then the cost will be added to you fuel bill. If electricity prices go up, then driving your vehicle is going to be more expensive.

Wherever we look at, there is a multiplier effect. How much in terms of salary rises will people need to have to afford to live in London? And even if you don't live in London, but you need to come to London, then you will have to be able to afford it.

What about key staff that commute? What about hospital restaurants? If transportation goes go up, the National Health Service will have to charge extra to feed its own staff that the moment eat with subsidized prices. 

The impact impact of ULEZ is massive and it goes well beyond London boundaries.

 

With EU in recession, German coalition wants to deprive German industries of gas to send gas to Ukraine

Since Angela Merkel's disastrous decision to get rid of nuclear power in Germany, Germany became extremely dependent on fossil fuel imports. When the situation in Eastern Europe worsened, Germany had to start reopening coal mines. Major industrial players in Germany alerted the German coalition that they need to have secure energy supplies. Unfortunaly, the coalition led by Olaf Scholz is deaf and intends to send German gas to Ukraine. What is even more astonishing is that countries like Netherlands that have gas stocks were thought to be diverting their own supplies to Germany.

In the midst of recession, diverting gas supplies away from German industries makes a bad situation even worse. If German manufacturing falters, the possibility of job loses, export losses and industrial unrest rises. Although the next Federal Election is still a long way into the future, if the worst happens, the future of the ruling coalition will be in doubt. It was hard for SPD to negotiate a deal that could unite conservatives FDP and Greens. For the German economy, there has been a triple whammy: loss of nuclear energy, higher prices of oil and gas plus exports of gas to other countries.

Germany is the engine of the EU. Will the coalition survive until the next Federal Election. The longer the conflict in Eastern Europe goes on the worse the prospects for the German economy. The axe Berlin/Paris is also going through challenges. President Macron will not be around for another mandate. One word that describes what is happening in France is 'uncertainty'. Who will step in to challenge Rassemblement National? 

This is a tour de force, a game of political survival. As all the weapons sent to Ukraine are being systematically destroyed, the European Union risks being naked because what is being sent is not being replaced. Taxes going up in the midst of recession to pay for the war effort?

Conservative Party about to break one of two new records?

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the third female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

The original article indicated 'second female Prime Minister' when in fact it should have been said that she would be the third female Prime Minister. We totally forgot Theresa May. 

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

British Conservative Party is about to break a record: first Asian Prime Minister or second female Prime Minister

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the second female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

 

UK: In just a few weeks, the British economy could be in the doldrums and much stronger leadership will be needed

 

What is happening right now is deeply worrying because the times of easy money could be coming to an abrupt end. The issue is not just rising inflation. The issue is that salaries and pensions have been pegged to inflationary pressures. 

At this point in time, asking for salary rises pegged to inflation could itself be a force towards more inflation and more borrowing when interest payments will be taking their toll on public finances.

And what if, as expected, the Treasury does not agree to salary increases that it could hardly afford? Would the state sector be ground to a halt? It is understandable that public workers that are seeing their incomes devalued are prone to ask for salary rises. Having said that, those in charge know full well that public finances have been drained and that any monies to pay for higher salaries will come from additional borrowing at a time when interest rates are going up and from an increase in taxation.

If energy is the main driver when it comes to inflationary pressures, then more energy will have to be produced and to do so all the promises in terms of a reduction of the use of fossil fuels will have be put aside. In the 1970s, Britain was almost brought down to its knees and the country was working just a few days a week. The issue was then energy or lack of it. Today, the issue is the price of it. Whoever takes the reins of power in September will have to make difficult choices. Doing less to save energy is not an option. Slowing down the British economy by enforcing energy savings will make matters a lot worse. 

We learnt from the imposed Covid lockdown leading to lack of economic activity that slowing down the British economy will cost livelihoods: businesses will be closed down and an undetermined number of jobs will be lost. Companies that generate little or no revenue at all have no reason to maintain jobs. Less economic activity endangers jobs and produces less tax revenues. If you slow down an aircraft in plain flight the time comes when the only way is down. We cannot have yet another loss of economic activity. We need energy and we need energy wherever we can find it. If foreign oil and gas producers don't want or cannot provide additional oil and gas, Britain will have to become self-sufficient and all options should be on the cards, including fracking.

Whoever is chosen as Prime Minister will have to make hard choices and implement decisions that will prove to be as unpopular as fundamentally necessary. Whether Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss is in command, he or she will have to forget about popularity contests. The popularity contest is only there to get one of them elected. Real governance demands dogged determination to do what is right.   

From today, countries that are hostile to the Russian Federation will have to pay for oil and gas with rubbles

 

From today, countries that are seen as hostile to the Russian Federation will have to pay for oil and gas with rubbles. To that effect, they will have to open an account at a Russian bank that will make the monetary conversion to rubbles in order to continue receiving oil and gas from the Russian Federation.

The measure was not unexpected and it makes perfect sense, proving once more, that measures implemented against the Russian Federation will ultimately backfire and end up damaging the economies of countries that allowed themselves to engage in knee-jerk reactions without having a thought about the potential repercussions.

In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland has raised the alarm as Germany faces a struggle with rising energy prices that rather than reducing dependency on fossil fuels increases dependency on fossil fuel at much higher costs. German coal is a crucially important commodity. Whether it is dirty or non-environmentally friendly is absolutely irrelevant. The country needs energy to avoid an economic disaster.

After Covid, some countries in the so called West are living in a permanent state of emergency. In UK, British authorities have announced reductions of Council Tax for certain families for amounts of up to 150 Pound. The only problem is that the same families because of measures taken by British authourities have seen their expenses rise by several thousands of Pound. Little consolation for those facing the direst situations. The number of those living under the radar keeps growing. Cases of families living in a single room shared with complete strangers are on the rise. The number of those falling below the poverty line kees rising and private debt - as well a public debt- keeps rising.

Rishi Sunak: EU embargo of Russian oil and gas will tip EU into recession

 

You couldn't make it up. On the one hand, Western politicians try to sound menacing and decisive and after speeches especially made with that purpose comes reality. Just a few days ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz raised the alert that such embargoes would seriously undermine the German economy. By extension if market prices go up, inflation will start to speed up in the EU and in the UK. Prices are no determined by particular countries. Prices are global. Only for this reason, there have been approaches to Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela to seek oil and gas production increases.

The Bank of England has just put up the basic interest rate on Thursday this week and announcing increases of interest rates would become the norm rather than the exception in months to come. Taking money away from peoples' pockets will curb consumption and curbing consumption means reduced economic activity. Reduced economic activity in turn means that with less demand many jobs will become redundant and jobs are being made redundant as you read both in terms of public jobs and private jobs. Why did a major ferry operator lay off 800 staff today? Is it because the company expects to have big earnings in the coming months? What about spring and summer when people tend go on vacation? Is it because they expect a reduction or an increase of the number of passengers wanting to travel to and from the continent?

The coming summer season could be a lot hotter and not just because of rising temperatures. Keep checking rising utility bills, travelling fares, fuel at the pumps and grocery bills.

The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011 is said to be coming to an end. This will make the political situation a lot more fluid. But putting aside national elections, let's see what happens to the British economy from now until the May 2022 elections. Ordinary people are living under enormous pressure and such pressure is bound to be stronger if unemployment and inflation suddenly pick up. The combination of the two will be deadly.  

Russian Ambassador in Sweden told things as they are: China and Russian Federation already have an agreement for gas

The United States of America created World War Two. Because of a financial crisis in New York in 1929, as the German economy was recovering in spite of unpayable war reparations imposed by the Versailles Treaty, American creditors withdrew loans and the German economy collapsed. German banks closed their doors and mass unemployment followed leading to a political crisis of major proportions.

Once again, American capitalists are ready and willing to create another major war in Europe, but this time they are dealing with a different Germany and after some major disasters of American foreign policy the US government is about to create an even bigger disaster.

The bigger loser if sanctions go through are Germany and the European Union that without Russian gas would end depending on American fracking oil and from other sources that will come at a higher price while the Russian Federation will be sending gas to China in much bigger quantities and therefore getting a lot more than the amounts the Russian Federation would be getting from the European Union.  

German politicians are aware of the fact that with sanctions against the Russian Federation will be losing twofold. Energy supplies are becoming ever more difficult to find. Due to green policies, supplies from Netherlands will be vastly reduced. Natural gas from the Russian Federation or liquid gas from the US? More than 4,000 massive tankers will have to bring gas from the US to Europe. Even with such amounts being brought from US, 400 thousand million cubic metres of natural gas will not be easily replaced and dependence on Russian natural gas will be even greater.

US will not stop importing natural gas from the Russian Federation, but wants Germany to stop buying Russian natural gas. 

The whole exercise concerning Ukraine is a hypocritical and criminal attempt by the US to damage European countries. Getting rid of nuclear power was a bad idea and following the US is an even worse idea and therefore German interest must prevail over American grid and stupidity.

Thanks to sanctions, all that is achieved is a stronger alliance between Russia and China. German companies lose. 

Germany must implement foreign policies in German national interest instead of getting involved in America's whorehouse.

Ukraine Crisis or Oil and Gas Casino?

 

Ukraine Crisis or Oil and Gas Casino

While most people and the mass media seem fixed on events linked to a mythological invasion, what is happening to oil and gas shares around the world?

 

There are all kinds of headlines linked to events in Ukraine, but what is the reality of it all? Who is really making truckloads of money speculating in international markets? With the Covid pandemic and the loss of economic activity, oil and gas prices went down as demand went down. Then suddenly, economic activity started to pick up and oil and gas prices went up again. 

 

British newspapers were mentioned that should there be shortages of oil and gas, Britain would be receiving gas from.... Australia? You only have to look at mapamundi to see that there is a lot more than meets the eye. Container ships bringing American fracking gas across the Atlantic? Container ships bringing in gas all the way from Australia? As some environmental activists complain about air traffic including the use of private jets, has anybody stopped to think about the footprint of ships carrying vast amounts of gas and oil across vast oceans of the world? At what cost? Suddenly, you can forget about environmental targets because what we are listening about has nothing to do environmental targets and a lot do with geopolitical objectives and speculation in world markets.

 

India and China were a lot more honest when it comes to energy needs and energy sources. Yes, they will not phase out their production of coal - just to give an example - and they will continue building up coal energy plants. Undoubtedly, any talk about shortages and especially shortages due to geopolitical situations will benefit certain investors. War in Europe? How much money can we make out of it?

 

Recently, a very expensive jet fighter went down in Asia. There were the usual comments about the best American technology falling into Chinese hands because the jet crash on 'unfriendly waters'. How much did the aircraft cost? Who cares? There will be another aircraft to replace the one that crashed, and monies will be made by certain 'investors' that would like to have another war, another massive war, because wars are money making machines. They could not care less about human lives lost or ruined.

 

In more than one way, those who invest in wars are exactly what the drug cartels are about: quick riches regardless of the thousands upon thousands of lives lost or ruined. This is the business of war.

 

The fat cats will continue increasing their fortunes. Their helpers like the authorities of NATO will see their bank accounts grow and grow and they will continue making inflammatory speeches because the more inflammatory their speeches are a major war is ever closer.

The Human Cost of Energy Crisis and the threat of war to make money

 

When the President and the Vice President of the USA so casually talk about war, lets be reminded of what war means. Neighter Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris have ever been closed to a real threatre of war.

In Britain, writing for The Guardian, Simon Jenkins says 'that Britain shuold stay well out of Russia's border dispute with Ukraine. Also in Britain The Independent states in one of its articles that USA wishes to go to war.

Before there is any major war in Europe, energy costs are crippling economies and causing prices to rise throwing more and more families into poverty. Can you imagine what could happen if there was a real major conflict in Europe?

Cost of energy in Germany are leading to major inflation rises and the idea that Germany will not be able to rely on imports coming from the East - namely the Russian Federation - is nothing less than a nightmare. Year after year, the political environment in Germany has become more and more fragmented. SPD only manage to win the Federal Election not because of gaining more votes, but because CDU/CSU went down dramatically. Germany is polarized between right and left and those who know the history of Germany know that this no good. 

Both France and Germany are pushing for talks with both Ukraine and the Russian Federation - a group of four talks - to bypass NATO and the USA. They do so because they don't trust the USA's intentions?  USA wants War in Europe, a war that will be completely detrimental for Europe. But greed in the USA has no limits. For several years, the USA has been stockpiling oil and gas and especially gas that comes from fracking and needs to make money with it. By blocking the Baltic pipeline between the Russian Federation and Germany, Europe becomes ever more dependent of American exports that the USA is sending to Europe as 'aid to alleviate shortages'. So there is money to be made and the American intention of going to war against Russia is yet another economic war as the illegal invasion of Iraq was an economic war.

Johnson/Biden: Trade Deal dead in the water

 

This reminds me of couples that go around denying that their marriages are in trouble. We have never been so happy, they say. This is before the next morning announcement indicating that they have agreed to bring their marriage to an amicable conclusion.

This was said to be a meeting about climate, but right at the beginning the British Prime Minister indicated that there is not going to be a bilateral trade agreement in the foreseable future.

Reading between lines, I reckon that the beginning was not the best of beginnings, starting with an unilateral American withdrawal that left its NATO partners buffled. After that, came the announcement of a deal regarding nuclear submarines that only benefits the USA despite the fact that UK was the middleman. On top of that, it damaged the relationship with France. A UK politician tried to rest to dimish the importance of the damage caused by saying that in the last ten years Britain and France have coordinated their military with French officers in charge of British units and Britsh officers in charge of French units and so forth. Ten years are ten years, but in politics 24 hours is a lot and much of what has happend regarding AUKUS should not be underestimated. 

The rise of energy prices due to a rise of energy consumption will not make choices any easier. If gas prices and oil prices go up, coal is a natural component of the energy mix that cannot be left behind. Joe Biden can talk about financial support to be offered to poorer countries to support towards more environmentally friendly economies, but reality tells you fossil fuels will continue to be the first choice for many for many years to come.

The choice between diesel and nuclear was a logical choice to make. Firstly, it is about not using fossiel fuels and, secondly, it is about operational capabilities. While diesel vessels depend on regular refuelling, nuclear vessels can operate continuously for at least 25 years. The decision was rational, but the way it was implemented created divisions that could have been avoided. The jobs that would have been maintained or created in France will now go to the USA. USA's submarines are all nuclear so it will not be too difficult to produce a few more. In any case, it is expected that the new submarines will become operational by the year 2030, as long as there are no delays. As a British politician explained, this is not about real military capabilities in the short term. The idea is to send a message to China about the determination to prevent a Chinese military escalation in Asia Pacific.

A journalist asked who was more of a priority in terms of talking about US/UK relations: Joe Biden or Kamala Harris? In the USA, people are already talking about the American mid-term elections due to take place in November 2022 when all 435 seats of the House of Representatives and 34 or a 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election. What happens from now until the Mid-Term Elections will determine if Biden ends or does not end as a lame duck President during his first term in office.