Will Ukraine be Yugoslavia 2025?

Will Ukraine be Yugoslavia 2025?

Henry Kissinger stated that he saw the partition of the Ukraine as the only solution to achive lasting peace by separating the two sides - non Russians and ethnic Russians that live in the present Ukraine. Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine fough on opposite sides during World War Two. 

Data:  Western and eastern Ukraine represent distinct regions with contrasting historical, cultural, and economic characteristics. Western Ukraine generally includes regions like Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia, formerly part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk), has a strong industrial and Russian-speaking identity, with a history tied to the Russian Empire and Soviet Union.

The meeting in Washington will be about parties that have different agendas. Trade, Defense and Geopolitical Interests will be on the table.

Not long ago Ursula von der Leyen negotiated an agreement with President Trump, agreement that was very much disliked by German politicans of all political colours that asked for the resignation of the President of the European Commission. In France, the French Prime Minister himself expressed strong opposition to such a deal that is defined by many as an act of surrender to American interest.

Given the troubles several European countries are facing at home, EU politicians are desperately trying to get something that they can call a win. President Trump has the aces. He conditioned American support to the signing of a trade agreement.

At the end of the meeting in Alaska, the sides mentioned their intention to improve trade relationships. President Trump himself needs a win. Some week ago, he made an agreement with Ukraine indicating that Ukraine will give USA access to Ukraine mineral resources in exchange for military support. What President Trump and President Putin agreed in Alaska was not reported. I suspect that trade and a peace agreement come as a package and that the Yugoslavia Option is on the table.

China is the Target: US has said it loud and clear at every opportunity

 

China is the Target: US has said it loud and clear at every opportunity.

When in Europe US representatives stated that the emphasis of its military approach in the Pacific, they were telling Europeans exactly where things are heading.

The move about tariffs has a clear aim which is to undermined the Chinese economy that at the moment in increasing investment in defense massively. So how do you make China suffer? Trade. Trade provides the resources for defense. Is not that the logic of sanctions against the Russian Federation?

Money pays for guns. Do you want to limit another country´s expansion? Limit Trade. And this is exactly President Trump´s strategy.

Most everyday products cheaper in UK than in EU

As European Union countries face recession with the price of everyday use products being more expensive than in the United Kingdom, the anti-Brexit argument collapses. After Covid and following the hardships generated by a conflict in Eastern Europe, the British economy is on the way up. No recession in the horizon for British consumers and British workers. 

If prices in Continental Europe are higher, Britain faces no limits in terms of acquiring basic products outside the European Union at lower prices. The benefits of this is twofold. Firstly, it allows Britain to ease the pressure on British consumers and, secondly, it allows Britain to interact more with Developing Economies thus improving trade relations with less fortunate countries.

Outside the parentage of the European Union, Britain can now go for expansion across the rest of the world, something that will improve Britain's standing as a trading nation. Massive areas of the world, highly populated areas of the world, are now open for business. 

Potash, critically important resource for both agriculture and weapons industries, does not come from Germany, France or any other EU country. Argentina, to name just one country, has potash and companies like Rio Tinto have dealt with such an important resource. Most of the world outside the European Union is mainly agricultural. So this is a wonderful opportunity for Britain to revitalize its industrial base and expand its trade with agricultural countries.

As several EU countries know fairly well, EU is a political project. Nertherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Poland - to name a few - have been at odds with the EU for one reason or another for very fundamental reasons. Why should Netherlands have less energy and less farming? Why should Poland and Hungary be pressured to force them to accept to change their demographic make up with unbridled migration and forces to pay for their reluctance to accept demographic changes?

Present recession realities across the EU tell you that politics seems to matter more than economics and recession comes with huge social costs.

Johnson/Biden: Trade Deal dead in the water

 

This reminds me of couples that go around denying that their marriages are in trouble. We have never been so happy, they say. This is before the next morning announcement indicating that they have agreed to bring their marriage to an amicable conclusion.

This was said to be a meeting about climate, but right at the beginning the British Prime Minister indicated that there is not going to be a bilateral trade agreement in the foreseable future.

Reading between lines, I reckon that the beginning was not the best of beginnings, starting with an unilateral American withdrawal that left its NATO partners buffled. After that, came the announcement of a deal regarding nuclear submarines that only benefits the USA despite the fact that UK was the middleman. On top of that, it damaged the relationship with France. A UK politician tried to rest to dimish the importance of the damage caused by saying that in the last ten years Britain and France have coordinated their military with French officers in charge of British units and Britsh officers in charge of French units and so forth. Ten years are ten years, but in politics 24 hours is a lot and much of what has happend regarding AUKUS should not be underestimated. 

The rise of energy prices due to a rise of energy consumption will not make choices any easier. If gas prices and oil prices go up, coal is a natural component of the energy mix that cannot be left behind. Joe Biden can talk about financial support to be offered to poorer countries to support towards more environmentally friendly economies, but reality tells you fossil fuels will continue to be the first choice for many for many years to come.

The choice between diesel and nuclear was a logical choice to make. Firstly, it is about not using fossiel fuels and, secondly, it is about operational capabilities. While diesel vessels depend on regular refuelling, nuclear vessels can operate continuously for at least 25 years. The decision was rational, but the way it was implemented created divisions that could have been avoided. The jobs that would have been maintained or created in France will now go to the USA. USA's submarines are all nuclear so it will not be too difficult to produce a few more. In any case, it is expected that the new submarines will become operational by the year 2030, as long as there are no delays. As a British politician explained, this is not about real military capabilities in the short term. The idea is to send a message to China about the determination to prevent a Chinese military escalation in Asia Pacific.

A journalist asked who was more of a priority in terms of talking about US/UK relations: Joe Biden or Kamala Harris? In the USA, people are already talking about the American mid-term elections due to take place in November 2022 when all 435 seats of the House of Representatives and 34 or a 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election. What happens from now until the Mid-Term Elections will determine if Biden ends or does not end as a lame duck President during his first term in office.