Economic realism vs Geopolitcs: Alternative für Deutschland

 

Economic realism vs Geopolitcs

The options are pretty clear. Germany is a manufacturing country that has been losing jobs in manufacturing because German companies have been pushed out of Germany due to high energy costs.

It is also a country is which the vast majority of migrants live on benefits and produce very little or nothing for the German economy.

Understandably then lowering energy costs and throwing out unproductive foreigners that live at the expense of the German peoples are two major priorities. This is why Elon Musk stated that Alternative für Deutschland is the only German political party that can save Germany.

Buying things cheap somewhere else when jobs are vanishing in your own country is not a valid alternative.

High taxation is a requirement to finance people who are out of work. Therefore, the only alternative is to get rid of beggars and lower taxes to restore the strengths of the German economy. And a permanent flow of additional jobs is also a requirement for political and social stability.

The status quo is a non non. It is precisely the status quo has created the present mess.

At the end of the day, each country has different realities and overlooking differences leads to the wrong conclusions. There are also historical realities and each country is bound to react differently and have different priorities.

Shoemaker makes Shoes: Something that does not apply to the present government

When you have people who have never ever been in business and don't have a clue about running a business, when you have people making decisions about farming when the closest they have been to managing a farm is standing near the shelves of a supermarket, you know that the country is in trouble.

Ideology does not replace knowledge and expertise, but we have got politicians driven by blind ideology deciding what is best for the country. So, if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong.

First thing you learn about economics is that the closest the factory is to raw materials the lower production costs will be, but then comes Ed Miliband and decides to prevent new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

How old was he when Britain was going over the edge because of lack of oil and gas? In the 1970s, Britain was saved by the discovery of oil and gas in the North Sea, but now the all knowledgeable Marxist politician wants to prevent any more exploration for oil and gas.

Britain buys already too much foodstuff abroad so reducing the number of farms on British soil will force Britain to buy even more foodstuff abroad as population keeps growing. What does Labour do? Implements tax measures that will put more and more farms out of business thus reducing production in the United Kingdom.

Every step of the way, Labour policies are based on ignorance, ideological hatred and misconceptions and the alternative is, as it always have been, to borrow more and to produce less. When Labour talks about growth, Labour is not talking about economic growth. Labour is talking about indebtedness growth. And then when they can borrow no more, they will propose massive cuts that will leave people ever poorer.

The consequences of economic mismanagement will be worse than the Covid Pandemic and the energy crisis combined and this could become a very long Winter of Discontent that will end up with tears, and even spilt blood.

Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 - Budget Day

 

This is personal, stated the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. She refers to realities of the 1980s and 1990s. The Chancellor's efforts to gather capital will drag hundreds of thousands more people into paying tax and even more into higher rates as their pay rises, indicates none other than The Guardian.

Could a personal crusade turn into a nightmare? Changing fiscal rules to disguise debt making it appear as something else does not change the fact that it will still be borrowing. So more taxes and more borrowing that will be increased for public interest, according to the Chancellor.

Ordinary folk and many business were badly hit by the Covid Pandemic and the measures implemented to deal with the Covid Pandemic. After that, people and many business were hit by the energy crise generated by the conflict in Ukraine and the measures adopted against the Russian Federation. 

Now, they stand to be hit again by taxation and potentially higher prices of utilities, housing and daily shopping.

But the Chancellor of the Exchequer still says that she will implement the budget in a way that she will 'protect the living standards of working people'. 

Well, in an interview made in Washington, USA, Rachel Reeves - perhaps inadvertently - made promises that she will have to deliver. If she does not deliver and if the measures implemented by the Labour government become a de facto nightmare, then this will create a widely open door for another Conservative government.

Starting on Wednesday, October 30th, 2024, the government will have to deliver and with every failure, and every new crise, there will be many by-elections along the way in which people will express their discontent.

She talks about building schools and hospitals. Well, what will she do about nurses salaries that are not enough to rent a one bedroom flat? If living costs keep rising, this will be a de facto devaluation of salaries and a worsening of living standards. Before she goes around building schools and hospitals, she will have to look carefully at salaries actually paid to teachers and NHS staff. 

Even with the triple lock, state pensions are not enough to rent a one bedroom flat. State pensions are totally insufficient. Taxing state pensions and private pensions can only worsen an already bad situation. And this is going to do nothing to 'protect living standards'.  

The Truth shall set you free: You cannot promise salary increases and all kinds of improvements without putting up taxes, borrowing or both borrowing and putting up taxes

 

As July 4th 2024 approaches, both of the main contenders in the UK General Election are promising cakes and promising that you can eat your cake, and that you will have the same cake after eating it. They will have to put up taxes and borrow ever more and most probably print monies in what has been known as 'quantitative easing'. 

The Unions are already making noises and saying that they will request that promises made by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves are delivered. She has already spoken about salary increases in the public sector and this includes the most fundamental services like the NHS, the biggest employer in Europe and possibly the biggest employer in the world.

July 4th, 2024 happens to be Independence Day in the USA, but in Britain it might become Dependence Day if prices get out of control and people end up seeing the buying power of their income reduced. The Covid Pandemic and the energy crise generated by geopolitical decisions kicked in inflation and force the Bank of England to put up interest rates, but in spite of interest rate rises prices paid for basic items of the family basket are high and rising. How much people need to earn to have a roof over their heads? How much do they need to earn to feed themselves properly?

Funny to see on the pages of The Guardian comments about working families and pensioners as if they were part of different species. The reality is that more and more people already retired are returning to work to make ends meet and therefore they are part of working families. Most people could not possibly survive if their sole income was a pension.

European Elections: Instead of thinking about the reasons why, politicians plan to regroup to continue ignoring the reasons why people are voting what they are voting for

 

Instead of listening to voters, political parties plan to gang up to continue ignoring the reasons people voted what they voted for.

What so called maintream political parties lack is the intelligence to listen to people and to do what people want them to do.

Unbridled migration is increasingly opposed and this is why more and more people are voting againt mainstream political parties that promote unbridled migration. So what mainstream political parties plan to do? To continue promoting unbridled migration.

If you are the manager of a company that produces products that nobody wants, you won't have a brilliant future. Mainstream political parties don't seem to get the message. People don't want to spend more money that they don't even have to buy fancy alternatives that they don't need. Greens across Europe are discovering that scaremongering no longer works when you have got to pay higher bills. In Germany, SPD down, Grüne down and FDP down because of its association with SPD and Grüne in a desperate coalition. In fact, support for SPD - the ruling party collapsed to less than 14 per cent and is now below AfD that got 16 per cent and rising. How democratic it is for such coalition to continue ruling Germany?

Warmongering Grüne are being rejected by German voters. Germany needs energy to continue as the manufacturing and exporting leader in Europe. Firstly, Germany was let down by Angela Merkel that got rid of nuclear power making Germany practically entirely dependent on fossil fuels - much of which had to be imported from abroad. When due to geopolitical decisions, imports were reduced, Germany ended up depending more and more on coal. Because of their geopolitical stances, Grüne seems to support the use of fossil fuels. This contradiction left them exposed and people are walking away from them. 

Environmental measures are a national security liability

Limiting options in terms of the energy mix makes countries weaker when it comes to defending themselves in case of war. This statement has proven to be true not once, but many times. In fact, blockades have been about reducing energy options to defeat your enemy. Energy sources are a prime target when conflict arises.

Bombing oil installations, energy plants and hydroelectric facilities is about depriving your enemy of the energy that it needs to carry on fighting. This is why Green policies are a threat to National Security. Proponents of green alternatives have in mind the idea of protecting eco systems and preserving the environment for future generations. Unfortunately, such alternatives come with a huge price tag in times of political and geopolitical uncertainty.

When Germany was deprived of oil during World War Two, the country had to reach for alternatives to produce the energy needed to keep itself going and to meet the needs of war. Airplanes, tanks, ships, trucks and everything imaginable that needs to be fuelled could not possibly be kept running without fossil fuels and therefore Germany had to create something that resembled oil.

Britain also knew the price of not having oil. The number of ships that went down trying to keep Britain provided of essentials is a reminder of the fact that the country needed reliable and sufficient amount of energy not to face defeat.

Political statements about geopolitics and environmental policies travel in opposite directions. You can try to protect the environment by weakening your country, making your country extremeluy vulnerable because of lack of reliable and sufficient energy sources. 

Energy Crisis: Who is winning?

 

Covid did damage economies and completely changed lifestyles, but the single most  negative factor for Western Economies was the knee jerk reactions aimed at damaging the Russian Federation that ended up creating hardship, political and social instability in those countries seeking to undermine the Russian Federation.

For those living in the United Kingdom, sanctions against the Russian Federation meant the end of the Paradise of low prices and stable economics. Just when Britain was coming out of the nightmare created by Covid economics, the British government - once again - reacted by impulse instead of using their brains properly. Not enough with mistakes made in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. British politicians had once again to put a foot wrong by jumping on the American bandwagon of failed foreign policies and started to dig an even bigger hole for themselves.

British policies regarding events in Eastern Europe have led to catastrophic realities in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Industrial economies rely on... energy. Something that British politicians completely forgot about it. Germany, thank to Merkel, got into a bigger hole. Why? Merkel's knee jerk reactions regarding nuclear power. What would be the chances of a tsunami hitting German nuclear reactors as it happened in Japan? Zero. Angela Merkel over-reacted and decided to leave Germany totally exposed to an energy crisis having to almost totally depend on fossil fuels. Even France with its nuclear capacity got hit because... France negleted its nuclear infra-structure.

The conflict has been raging for years now and might continue for the foreseeable future, although the USA and Germany are now applying pressure on Ukraine to force Ukraine to seek peace. At the end of the day, it all comes to money and another factor to consider is that today Europe is a lot less safe because of the stupidity of its leaders. As the Western side decided to get dirty by using weapons banned by most countries in the world, the Russian Federation decided that it had enough and passed legislation withdrawing from all nuclear weapons agreements. So now, all gloves are off. This is a situation created by Western warmongers that expected that they could whatever without a rection from the other side. They have used Ukraine in a war by proxy against the Russian Federation and now those who jumped on the warmongers' bandwagon are bound to pay the consequences.

General Winter is coming. The expectation is that all Ukrainian infra-structure will be wiped out, pushing Ukraine back to the Middle Ages.

Jeremy Hunt: November 17th 2022 - Tax Day

 

November 17th 2022 - Tax Day

A hole in public finances of  more than 50 billion Pound will have to be plugged. Apart from the prospect of budget cuts affecting services, the alternative is a massive amount of tax increases.

Kwasi Kwarteng was slaughtered, thrown to the wolves, because he wanted to implement Liz Truss policies of tax reductions. What will happen to Jeremy Hunt when he announces a budget that contains punitive measures?

Let us remember that on the first round of the leadership election that led to the Premiership of Liz Truss the now Chancellor of the Exchequer didn't manage to progress beyond the first round. He was not popular among MPs and was not popular among the Membership of the Conservative Party. Now, the same man is going to propose a budget that goes against what is the declared ideological stance of the Conservative Party. Rising energy costs, rising interest rates plus rising taxes. If you are a business owner struggling to survive in the present financial environment, how are you going to react? Will you minimize your business to reduce fixed costs and in doing so sent your staff to the queue of the unemployed? A very harsh winter coming for those who lose their jobs when families are already struggling to pay for rental accommodation because they don't have the means to afford mortgage payments.

Wasn't Rishi Sunak the one who suggested that we should have a long term approach instead of shock therapy? Will such a budget be compatible with long term thinking? If Jeremy Hunt goes to far, this could the end of Jeremy Hunt and also the end of an already wavering Rishi Sunak? What next? Another leadership election?

Just a few months ago it was reported that recent interest rates will put more than 500,000 mortgages in jeopardy. Will more taxes and more unemployment make the situation better or worse? If the mortgage business falters, the financial system as a whole will be in serious trouble. We don't need even to explain what a wave of mortgage and load defaults will do to the economy.

As Liz Truss threatens the Russian Federation with nuclear war, the Russian Federation launches covert national mobilization

 

What about the situation that is developing does the favourite to become British Prime Minister not understand?

If somebody threatens you, what do you do? Launch a pre-emptive attack. Within 15 minutes London will be history. That is the time it takes for a nuclear missile to reach London if launched from Kaliningrad. Hustings are turning into a dangerous circus. 

What is said by British politicians are being studied and every bit of information is being sent abroad to build a profile of what could be the next move. In the meantime, Boris Johnson, the outgoing Prime Minister is asking Britons to put up with an impending economic catastrophe.

Britain is today is an worst position that the position it was in in 1940. For decades now, one government after another has been weakening Britain to the point that Britain's military manpower is less than 80,000 and Britain does not have the capability to patrol its own coasts and its security services don't have the necessary manpower to track every possible terror operator, let alone tracking an organised attack within Britain carried out by well trained operators with a specific agenda.

The Russian Federation does not need to even attempt to attack Britain. British politicians are themselves busy destroying Britain. Improvisation, miscalculation, lack of awareness of the consequences. It is the law of unintended consequences that would push Britain downhill. 

Napoleon described Britain as a nation of shopkeepers. Paradoxically, the said shopkeepers kept Britain alive. Now, British shopkeepers are falling prey of British politicians. 

The news came today that for fear of dealing with bankruptcies and unpaid debts, energy providers are refusing to extend long term energy contracts for small businesses. If the hospitality industries and small businesses are forced to close down - many in the said hospitality industries and small business barely managed to survive the Covid pandemic - the most vulnerable will be once again severely hit.

And what happens to farming? Farmers barely survive thanks to subsidies, subsidies that will be devalued by inflation. Energy rationing? Food rationing? Blackouts? A cabinet minister indicated that he is not in favour of electricity rationing. Well, the words 'if necessary' not only apply to nuclear weapons. The authorities will be forced to impose rationing.  

  

The importance of language learning

Not knowing a language and not making an effort to learn a language is a form of disability. Some people cannot hear - this is called deafness. Some people cannot talk and this means that they are mute. If you hear and talk, but cannot communicate then you are disabled.

Not learning a language can also be the consequence of negative attitudes. The usual comment I hear as justification for not making an effort to learn a certain language is 'It is too difficult'. Another common excuse is 'I don't like it'. People who have such attitudes often deprive themselves of the opportunity of having a normal life and/or a successful life.

By not learning a language you are deprived of first hand knowledge and first hand experiences and constantly depending on other people to know what is actually going on.  You only have access to somebody else's interpretation or understanding of what is going on.

When it comes to sciences and especially to mathematics, we encounter similar kinds of attitudes. People want to have a better job, more work opportunities, but they are not willing to do what needs to be done to have a better job and more work opportunities.

Learning sciences is also about communication. Without acquiring certain skills, your understanding will be limited and you will always be prey of those who want you to believe what they want you to believe. How can you be able to make informed decisions if what you precisely lack is the capacity to understand and evalue the data and views you are faced with?

To be able to make an informed decision, you must know what everything is about. 

Conservative Party about to break one of two new records?

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the third female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

The original article indicated 'second female Prime Minister' when in fact it should have been said that she would be the third female Prime Minister. We totally forgot Theresa May. 

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

British Conservative Party is about to break a record: first Asian Prime Minister or second female Prime Minister

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the second female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

 

European Energy Rationing and strikes: Sanctions against Russian Federation benefit Russian Federation

 

Europe is shooting itself in the foot: sanctions against Russian Federation benefit Russian Federation

In the midst of a hot summer and talk about environmental crisis caused by rising temperatures leading to fires and meltdown snow caps, people can easily forget that winter will come and that when winter comes energy prices will not only hit the roof because of lack of energy sources. Winter will come with rationing and this will bring with it all kinds of unsavoury situations, conflict and most probably social and political unrest across Europe.

Before there was any talk about rationing, prices were rising steadily and utility bills were hitting consumers that are now going to be told that they not only will have to pay more more the energy they use. They will also have to face the certain possiblity of blackouts.

In Germany, head of industry, trade unions and politicians including the Deputy President of the European Commission are alerting about what is to come. Industries that have to pay higher energy costs and/or industries that are told that they will not have the energy they need to be able to function will face extremely harsh choices. If they decide to reduce operations or if they cannot obtain the energy they need to continue operating, the unavoidable consequence will be mass unemployment.

In Britain, the struggle has already begun. Strikes involving transport will be reinforced by strikes of public sector workers that demand salary rises to cope with galloping inflation. Any salary rises will drain even more an already exhausted treasury. Any loss economic activity will lead to economic losses and will threaten the stability of the British Pound. If the currency collapses, then there will be a double wammy. Britain will pay more for the energy it uses not just because of higher market prices, but because the parity with the US Dollar used to buy oil and gas will be less favourable.

The British government is aware that it will come the time when Britain will be paralized by strikes and this is why legislation is being put through Parliament to counter trade unions to allow agency workers to replace ordinary workers. The problem is that alienating ordinary workers is a leading cause to political and civil unrest and there might not be enough manpower to prevent street battles and widespread violence. By passing such legislation the authorities might be unwittingly creating two sides at war in the United Kingdom.

In the meantime, the witchhunt is already underway. British citizens that utterly disagree with UK policies regarding the Russian Federation are being hunted down and their assets are being frozen and there is even the threat of trials for crimes against humanity. Britain has been encouraging British mercenaries to get involved in the war to attack the Russian Federation, but does not like the fact that British citizens of their own volition actually support the Russian Federation.

Britain is at war with the Russian Federation and sooner than later Britain will pay a very high price for it and the same applies to most countries of the European Union. The idea that Europe and/or Britain can target the Russian Federation without any consequences for Britain and Europe is as naive as the words of Hermann Goering when he promised Adolf Hitler that German cities would never be bombed.

Europe and Britain will have to face the consequences, consequences that could be worse than anything conceivable or predictable. Europe and Britain are moving around with the same self-assurance the inhabitants of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had on the eve of the launching of two atomic bombs.

Just yesterday, both Conservative party contenders for the leadership of the Conservative Party were asked very simplistic questions about Britain involvement in Ukraine. Not even the journalists of the BBC have the brainpower to ask proper questions. The issue was not about sending or not sending the Royal Navy to the Black Sea. The issue is what will happen if Britain is formally involved in the war because sending the Royal Navy would be an act of war. The time for intimidation is gone because any additional actions will actually trigger a European conflict.

 

  

Without Conscription Britain is doomed

 

Without conscription, Britain is doomed. Never mind the chit chat of people like Liz Truss and others. President Putin stated the obvious: we have not even started. Having said that, conscription will be seen as mobilization and mobilization will ellicit a response.

For several years now, the Russian Federation has been turning the Russian Armed Forces into fully professional Armed Forces for several reasons and many that are not related to military purposes. In the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces are called to play a social role providing social stability and continuous preparation, promoting existing skills and developing new skills that will come handy in case of armed conflict. Once again, British journalists and Western journalists in general have been found wanting because they are driven by prejudices and misconceptions instead of being driven by factual evidence.

As annecdotical evidence, there was a particular moment in British history - Market Garden. Montgomery planned a military operation in the Netherlands that was supposed to bring the war to an earlier end by taking over Netherlands and reaching the German industrial heart. Those who were supposed to achieve the military objective were told that the German Armed Forces would only have children, elderly soldiers and inexperienced troops not able to tackle the contingent of British, American and Polish troops sent to capture bridges in the Netherlands. They were literally slaughtered by German Armed Forces many of whom were made up of seasoned elite troops including SS contingents. It was a complete and utter disaster, but for political reasons for several years the British tried to disguise it as a success. When the Russian Federation says that it hasn't started yet, the Russian Federation has not started yet. Ukraine is 1936 Spain, a training ground, an exercise, a drill for what is to come.

Incompetent British politicians are more interested in personal power games, instead of focusing on the real issues facing Britain. Boris Johnson was talking about a 2.5% increase of the military budget. Cosmetics. Meaningless soudbites. Utter nonsense. Military scouts should be right now visiting education centres to select individuals who could be potential material to beef up the British Armed Forces and military service should have already been introduced. The fact that nothing of the sort is being done tells you that Britain is not just blissfully unprepared. Britain does not have the will to be prepared.

   

If Liberals and Greens prevail, National Socialism will be back in Germany and the Fourth Reich will be born

 

Although he did not refer to it by name, Frans Timmerman, European Union Deputy said it.

Europe is in danger of highly damaging "very, very strong conflict and strife" this winter over high energy prices, and should make a short-term return to fossil fuels to head off the threat of civil unrest. Not my words, but the words of Frans Timmerman, Vice-President of the European Commission.

He stated by lack of energy will lead to strong disruption in our societes. We need to make sure we keep our industry, as much as possible. Once again, sanctions and measures implemented against the Russian Federation have backfired. Coal will have to be used (main source of energy in Germany). He remarked that present policies about coal would contribute to tensions within our society getting even higher. Frans Timmerman is Dutch and he knows fairly well that, when things go wrong. Netherlands will be among the first countries that will suffer the consequences of what happens in Germany. Two World War attest to that.

Fear is already spreading. They are waking up. Germany has a ruling coalition, but only just. Until 2017, SPD - head of the present ruling coalition - was CDU/CSU partner. Angela Merkel ruined the CDU/CSU and was forced to resign as leader of CDU as pre-condition to remain as Chancellor until 2022. In 2022, CDU/CSU was crashed and without increating its vote SPD became the biggest party. It has to be said that SPD - unlike AfD - has no representation in 5 of the 16 Federal German States. SPD is hanging from its fingernails and any economic disaster will throw the present coalition into disarray. And then what will follow? Both German industrialists and trade unions are talking about an impending disaster if the energy crisis pushed German over the edge.

Now lets look at the argument about reduction of the use of fossil fuels. Angela Merkel dismantled German nuclear energy making Germany ever more dependent on coal, oil and gas. German does not have enough capacity to story liquidified gas. Do people really believe that if China has any intention to project its military might in Asia the environment is really a priority? China will be seeking to maximize use of any source of energy, including coal, to propel its military capabilities. In case of war, more and more fossil fuels will be used. Weakening Europe economically, socially, politically and militarily is not the way forward.

There was a passing reference to the Developing World and the consequences of the present situation in the Developing World.  

 

Russia is winning: Sanctions against Russia are hitting hard those who applied sanctions against Russia as inflation destabilizes economies

 

Transport strikes were the most visible indication that things are going south in the United Kingdom. Now there is the threat of other sectors of the economy like health and education going on strike and no sector is safe as the legal system is now being affected and people will have to defend themselves in court, including in serious cases that can lead to lenghty jail sentences.

This is not about Labour or Conservative. Whoever is in power the consequences of the economie going the wrong way due to energy prices and sanctions against the Russian Federation. European countries that rushed to implement punitive measures had little understanding of the dramatic consequences for their economies are now seeing the error of their ways and praying for no more energy cuts.

If inflation is more than 9% and the government in some cases is only willing to give a 3% salary rise, how are workers going to be persuaded to accept what is effectively a wage reduction? But those at work are not the only ones who will suffer. Pensions are somehow pegged to inflation rises and the question is how is this going to be dealt with. If you have got a state pension, you are going to be affected. If you have got a private pension, you are going to be affected. If you pension fund consists of investments in shares the obvious thought is that if the economy performs badly then investment returns will be lower.

Some Conservative politicians are talking about reducing taxation and cutting down or simply getting rid of VAT and there are those who say that green taxes that severely affect prices should be abolished. If the whole issue is so much depending on energy costs then the green agenda will be dead in the water. We have got to use every bit of fossil fuels we can get our hands on in order to lower energy prices. This means using coal and allowing fracking. 

RMT: if blood circulation stops or blood doesn't flow as fast as it should...

 

What do the transport strikes actually mean? 

Transport and communications are the blood of Britain. Without blood circulation the body stops, comes to an end, and this is exactly what is happening right now. After more than 24 months of economic and social activity in lockdown, lack of normal transport is another form of lockdown, but it has even more implications.

For ages, we have heard about protecting the environment by reducing CO2 levels. Well, if people are forced to used their own means of transportation including motor vehicles that consume fossil fuels, will there be more or less CO2? As the number of vehicles on the streets increases, traffic jams increase leading to delays and engines stuck on the streets, going nowhere and producing ever more CO2.

If you say that waiting lists in hospitals are too long, then transport strikes and the direct consequences of transport strikes are going to be ever longer with people having to cancel hospital appointments, delayed medical treatments leading to increase health risks and so forth.

Prices at the shops are rising and will rise even more if transportation costs increase affecting directly distribution of goods across the country.

In conclusion, this is not merely about the jobs and/or salaries of tranport workers. Every single family in the country will be affected by transport strikes in one way or another. The levels of debt are going to go up both in terms of private debt and public debt. Energy must be paid for. Time losses must be paid for and for many the outcome will be lost revenues.

The discusion regarding working conditions and working pensions is reaching the point when working conditions for workers will get worse and everybody will suffer. If the Mayor of London pushed by strikes has to divert funding used to maintain a bus network in the capital city, then working pensions might be protected but bus services will be lost affecting millions of peoples across the capital city. We have already reduced bus services across the capital city and any further reductions of the budget dedicated to bus services will mean loss of services. When future strikes of workers delivering undergound transport services and trains occur, people are going to have even less alternatives to meet their transport needs and the whole city would struggle not to come to a halt.

The London Authority was created to better manage developments in the capital city, added to the authorities that already manage 33 areas of the capital city, being in charge of fundamental projects to improve living conditions in the capital city, but no organisation can function without proper funding and this is what is missing. The added problem is that London is not just a city for Londoners. London is a key element in the economy of the entire country as the Southeast is the region of the United Kingdom that has the most powerful drive in terms of economics. If London comes to a halt, the country will suffer major consequences.

Unemployment in the United Kingdom has been falling steadily. Working conditions have improved although there are certainly some areas that need special attention to prevent economic exploitation that generates serious social problems. The slowdown of economic and social activity will mostly affect the most vulnerable in society. Strikes cannot be a long term solution. If the economy suffers, there will be even less funding for transport, more working hours will be lost, and most probably unemployment will start rising again debilitating the country as a whole. 

Johnson/Biden: Trade Deal dead in the water

 

This reminds me of couples that go around denying that their marriages are in trouble. We have never been so happy, they say. This is before the next morning announcement indicating that they have agreed to bring their marriage to an amicable conclusion.

This was said to be a meeting about climate, but right at the beginning the British Prime Minister indicated that there is not going to be a bilateral trade agreement in the foreseable future.

Reading between lines, I reckon that the beginning was not the best of beginnings, starting with an unilateral American withdrawal that left its NATO partners buffled. After that, came the announcement of a deal regarding nuclear submarines that only benefits the USA despite the fact that UK was the middleman. On top of that, it damaged the relationship with France. A UK politician tried to rest to dimish the importance of the damage caused by saying that in the last ten years Britain and France have coordinated their military with French officers in charge of British units and Britsh officers in charge of French units and so forth. Ten years are ten years, but in politics 24 hours is a lot and much of what has happend regarding AUKUS should not be underestimated. 

The rise of energy prices due to a rise of energy consumption will not make choices any easier. If gas prices and oil prices go up, coal is a natural component of the energy mix that cannot be left behind. Joe Biden can talk about financial support to be offered to poorer countries to support towards more environmentally friendly economies, but reality tells you fossil fuels will continue to be the first choice for many for many years to come.

The choice between diesel and nuclear was a logical choice to make. Firstly, it is about not using fossiel fuels and, secondly, it is about operational capabilities. While diesel vessels depend on regular refuelling, nuclear vessels can operate continuously for at least 25 years. The decision was rational, but the way it was implemented created divisions that could have been avoided. The jobs that would have been maintained or created in France will now go to the USA. USA's submarines are all nuclear so it will not be too difficult to produce a few more. In any case, it is expected that the new submarines will become operational by the year 2030, as long as there are no delays. As a British politician explained, this is not about real military capabilities in the short term. The idea is to send a message to China about the determination to prevent a Chinese military escalation in Asia Pacific.

A journalist asked who was more of a priority in terms of talking about US/UK relations: Joe Biden or Kamala Harris? In the USA, people are already talking about the American mid-term elections due to take place in November 2022 when all 435 seats of the House of Representatives and 34 or a 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election. What happens from now until the Mid-Term Elections will determine if Biden ends or does not end as a lame duck President during his first term in office.