Friedrich Merz: One country´s actions can trigger a chain reaction

When Merz predecessor, Angela Merkel, decided to open Germany´s borders, she could not foresee the problems that her approach would create. Suddenly, there were conflicts all over the EU when countries like Poland and Hungary rejected her open borders policies. She lived to regret her decision when she publicly stated "Multikulti ist Tot" and mass migration became so intense that it threatens Schengen Treaty arrangements. In her case, her decision did not involve engaging Germany in an all out war.

Friedrich Merz decision to authorize the use of German long range weapons against the Russian Federation is a completely different cup of tea with catastrophic consequences. Berlin has been told, over and over again (by Berlin I mean the German authorities) that such measure will in effect mean a declaration of war against the Russian Federation and that, therefore, the Russian Federation will be entitled to attack Germany. What Friedrich Merz has done, unitelaterally, is to put every single NATO country on a direct collision course with the Russian Federation.  Now, how can the Russian Federation attack Germany? Nuclear War.

Herr Merz got elected with less than 24% of the vote, taking into account that CDU did not get 24% of the vote. CDU/CSU got about 24% of the vote. His coalition partner - SPD - got 16% of the vote. It remains to be known what the German public actually thinks about Friedrich Merz statement and about the consequences of such statement. 

Friedrich Merz took such decision not as a NATO member. This was not a NATO decision. It was Germany´s decision, but it is a far reaching decision that will undermine Europe. I would say that such decision is not supported by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Article 5 refers to defense, not offense. 

Now, Chancellor Merz sent a Panzer group to Lithuania, a country that is pretty close to the Russian Federation. It is easy to see that if there is war between the Russian Federation and Germany then German forces in Lithuania will be targetted. 

We have not seen any reactions from other European countries. Do other countries want to be involved in an all out war? Like Angela Merkel, Friedrich Merz had no consultations with other European countries regarding the statement that he just made. Is this a German thing? i.e. making decisions that will affect everybody else, without even asking what other people in the European Union think about it?

This confirms my belief that Britain´s exit from the European Union was a very good thing. I also believe that dismantling NATO would be the next good thing. Why? Because one country can create a disaster for everybody else. So, if Germany wants war with the Russian Federation, Germany alone can pay the price of such a disastrous decision.

A New Political Era for Europe: Germany falters

The announcement that the German coalition headed by SPD has collapsed leaves in power a government headed by a political party that in three recent state elections failed dramatically to capture the public imagination. In three consecutive elections, Grüne barely managed to get 7 representatives out of 88, 119 and 88. This is how bad things are and they are bound to get worse. Support for the war in Ukraine has banrupted Germany and attempts to increase borrowing led to a political showdown leading to the end of coalition that was unsustainable from the very begining.

FDP and Grüne are exact opposites in various ways and such agreement was bound to end in tears. Can a Federal Election clear the air? Such election would take place in March 2025 and not in September 2025. Germany has been leading and financing the European Union. Changes in German politics are bound to have a significant effect in terms of German leadership and of the survival of the European Union. Talks about increasing defence expenditure are bound to go anywhere as Germany tries to sanitanize its own finances. Job losses already announced are not going to make the present coalition popular amongst voters.

Who could be the real winners in March 2024? There could be three potential winners: CDU, a new political party that had success in recent state elections and Alternative für Deutschland. The one party that has a real project for Germany is Alternative für Deutschland, a project that takes care of Germany´s energy needs and of migration - a subject that is a major concern in many European countries, including Germany. 

As economic figures show decline, EU Panic over immigration

 

One by one, EU countries are now panicking over immigration. The announcement of massive job losses in Germany, accompanied by news about border controls that go against the spirit of the Schengen Agreement don't go easy down the throats of German voters that are now turning to support AfD and/or walking away from the ruling coalition SDP/Grüne/FDP and this poses many questions about the coming Federal Election, after three state elections - Germany has 16 Federal States - in which vote for Alternative für Deutschland was 29% in the worst of cases and peaked at more than 33%. The use of the word ´peak´ is relative as the economic and financial situation hangs in the balance and as months go by the state of the German economy could be even worse thus favouring the vote for Alternative für Deutschland and for another 'leftwing Party' that has pushed Die Linke to the side and is making inroads in German Politics. Two options - one Right and one Left - and both anti-immigration have pushed the ruling coalition to curb migration into Germany.

As this happens, in France, Michel Barnier - a Prime Minister of necessity - after President Macron lost both the European Parliament Elections and the French Assembly Elections - is also inclined to talk against migration and the word 'Deportation' is going around. Italy has also spoken for closing borders and now there is the mention that EU makers and breakers want to have a dialogue to coordinate with Britain the transit of migrants. Keir Starmer stated today 'that being worried about migration is not Far Right', a clear change after Keir Starmer's trip to Italy when he met Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.

They also seem to remember Angela Merkel and blame for her open invitation to migrants to come to Germany. That was German Chancellor Angela Merkel then also Leader of the CDU. It must also be remember that soonafter she stated 'Multikulti ist tot', publicly declared that multiculturalism had completely failed in Germany.

Alternative for Germany - Is there an Alternative for Germany?

 

Is there an Alternative for Germany?

When the ruling SPD barely gets about 5% and his partners in the ruling coalition - Greens and FDP - get even less in state elections in Germany, something surely must change. Next stop? Brandenburg. If a disaster of the scale of what happened in Thuringen and Saxony also happens in Brandenburg then the ruling coalition must surely question its own future.

SPD and CDU quickly reacted proposing a ban on migration from two countries after lamentable events, but this did not seem to be enough to persuade voters to support the ruling coalition. In Thuringen, AfD got more votes than CDU and in Saxony the difference in favour of CDU was minimal compared to the level of support for AfD.

With Federal Elections around the corner, surely this is something to very much worry about. Geopolitical issues are dividing Germany, but internal issues seem to be equally divisive.

Immigration is being rejected by both sides of the political spectrum. A rising movement of the left is also anti-immigration.

The question is: have voters from both left and right of the political spectrum had enough of open borders? Let's remember that the official stance has been to punish Hungary for its reluctance to accept open borders. This beggars the question: are so called mainstream political parties out of tune? 

If they try to swim against the tide they will continue loosing support. SPD has even tried to ban Alternative für Deutchland. What will the argument in favour of banning Alternative für Deutschland? They got more than 30% of support and we got less than 6% and therefore we need to ban them because they are winning against us?

The Greens are the loudest party in favour of war in Europe. Do the Greens understand that their policies and stances are not supported by a vast number of German voters who have had enough of warmongers?

 

Why mainstream political parties are losing ground and fringe parties have become mainstream?

 

Just a decade ago, CDU/CSU used to call the shot in German politics and European politics. In fact, the German Chancellor and the French President used to have the final word in quite a few of the most important decisions made by the European Union.

But it must be said that CDU/CSU had to cohabitate with SPD in a marriage of convenience and this lasted until CDU/CSU fell catastrophically opening the way for the unthinkable: a coalition between German Conservatives FPD, SPD Social Democrats and Grüne Socialists.

The EU Parliament Elections have shown a rebirth of CDU and allowed AfD to surpass SPD while FPD and Grüne have fallen.

The call is very straightforward: German peoples do matter and must be the main priority for Germany. Decades of open doors and policies that mainly benefit non Germans have been rejected by German voters that face a very uncertain future as German economics has been seriously undermined both by environmental policies and an energy crisis that has increased energy costs and cut energy supplies.

Pushing forward environmental policies at the expense of the German economy is not good policy. The first two gigantic mistakes were made by Angela Merkel when she decided to get rid of nuclear power and open the floodgates for migration. Her almost unilateral decisions created animosity in Eastern Europe as most people coming to Germany had to go through Eastern European countries to reach Germany. Then, she made the equally astonishing statement ´Multikulti ist tot´ (Multikulturalism is dead). We are not in the mind of Angela Merkel, but we can guess that since then she has regretted getting rid of Nuclear Power and of having open the floodgates for migration.

By the end of her reign as German Chancellor, her own political party was not ready to give her a blank cheque. In order to remain as German Chancellor she was forced to resign as Leader of the CDU.

In France, Emmanuel Macron saw that he could not go on as usual when his official candidate for Prime Mnister got barely 15% in the European Parliament Elections. The decision to call for a Parliamentary Election was not easy but it had to be taken. Left, Right and Centre rejected his policies. Now, on June 30th and on July 1st, he faces the challenge and the possibility of having a Rassemblement National Prime Minister and a hostile National Assembly till the end of his term as French President. Emmanuel Macron will still have veto power, but from a political point of view he might have to deal with policies that go very much against his own policies. So both in the French Assembly and in the European Parliament decisions would be in the hands of Rassemblement National.

 

European Elections: Instead of thinking about the reasons why, politicians plan to regroup to continue ignoring the reasons why people are voting what they are voting for

 

Instead of listening to voters, political parties plan to gang up to continue ignoring the reasons people voted what they voted for.

What so called maintream political parties lack is the intelligence to listen to people and to do what people want them to do.

Unbridled migration is increasingly opposed and this is why more and more people are voting againt mainstream political parties that promote unbridled migration. So what mainstream political parties plan to do? To continue promoting unbridled migration.

If you are the manager of a company that produces products that nobody wants, you won't have a brilliant future. Mainstream political parties don't seem to get the message. People don't want to spend more money that they don't even have to buy fancy alternatives that they don't need. Greens across Europe are discovering that scaremongering no longer works when you have got to pay higher bills. In Germany, SPD down, Grüne down and FDP down because of its association with SPD and Grüne in a desperate coalition. In fact, support for SPD - the ruling party collapsed to less than 14 per cent and is now below AfD that got 16 per cent and rising. How democratic it is for such coalition to continue ruling Germany?

Warmongering Grüne are being rejected by German voters. Germany needs energy to continue as the manufacturing and exporting leader in Europe. Firstly, Germany was let down by Angela Merkel that got rid of nuclear power making Germany practically entirely dependent on fossil fuels - much of which had to be imported from abroad. When due to geopolitical decisions, imports were reduced, Germany ended up depending more and more on coal. Because of their geopolitical stances, Grüne seems to support the use of fossil fuels. This contradiction left them exposed and people are walking away from them. 

Question marks and more question marks = Elections that can change the geopolitical map

 

Elections that can change the geopolitical map are taking place throughout 2024. We start with France in a few days time when European Parliament Elections could signal what will the potential outcome of the French General Election be.

In the United Kingdom, many assume that Keir Starmer will be the next British Prime Minister. Is this set in stone?

And in the USA, please have a look at those running as Vice-Presidential Candidates. We should not underestimate the possibility of Vice-Presidential Candidates becoming key figures during the next mandate starting in 2024. Will the outcome of these elections be clear enough to avoid the precedent of litigation when elections in certain states were strongly contested?

There are important developments happening not only in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. In October 2025, Federal Elections in Germany. In the Federal Election of 2021, the SPD - head of the ruling coalition with FDP and Grüne - 23.4% of the vote. It now has an expectation of vote of 15%. FDP had 11.4% and it now has 5%, while Grüne had 14.7% and it now has 12%. CDU had 24.2 % and it now has 30%. In any case, results point towards yet another coalition.

The impact of what is happening in Germany has had obvious consequences - all members of the present coalition have seen their support going down. In 2021, 23.4 plus 11.4 plus 14.7 = 49.5 

Today, support for the coalition is 15 plus 5 plus 12 = 32

Alternative für Deutschland has the same level of support that Grüne and FDP have put together. But other surveys indicate that SPD has 15% and AfD has 17%. This means that Alternative für Deutschland has more support than the political party that is now ruling Germany. Should anything major happen, how will any major event - war included - affect the outcome of German elections?

In a few months time, the warmongers of today will be history

Whether it is USA, Britain, Germany, France, et cetera, one thing is certain: key warmongers of today will not be around for long.

How much time has Biden left? How much time has Rishi Sunak left? How much time Scholz and Macron have left?

Look at America. What is happening in Latin America? There was a time when in Uruguay the Colorado Party has an almost completely monopoly of power. Then came the Partido National, the other Conservative Party of Uruguay. What happened next? The Frente Amplio (Broad Front) took the reins of power and the conservative parties of Uruguay could only come back as a coalition. 

What is happening in Argentina, in Chile, in Brazil, even in Bolivia? The old certainties have disappeared. The Partido Justicialista arrived completely divided in the October round of elections to select the new Argentinian Parliament - with barely 30 something of support compared to a completely political grouping that also got 30 something. Now, we wait for the second round of elections to see who is elected President of Argentina and on what basis. If Milei manages to attract the attention of younger generations chances are that he could be the winner replacing both Justicialistas and Radicales. But as political commentators remarked during the first round of elections, the issue is fundamentally not who is in charge but what can whoever is in charge do to revert a 134% rate of inflation.

Strategies to scare people and deter them from supporting alternative political forces are failing to do the job. People don't want continuity. They want positive changes. They are tired of a bit of the same. In Germany of all places the idea of banning a political force that already represents more than twenty per cent of the electors is a sign of desperation. Olaf Scholz knows that he is walking on a high rope with failing political partners. The SPD tried to distance itself from CDU/CSU as coalition member precisely because it was losing support. FPD is losing support and SPD itself is losing support. So how will the German coalition last? In spite of what politicians and mass media say, how feasible is a coalition of Alternative für Deutschland and other conservative groups. In the days of Angela Merkel, local CDU representatives were comfortable enough to work together with Alternative für Deutschland.

France is a bit of a puzzle. Macron is unpopular, but fears about the rise of Rassemblement National motivated some people to support what they did not like. Marine Le Pen did the right thing by choosing to have different young leaders to attract younger generations of voters.

Both in Germany and in France, political parties are exploiting what is happening in Palestine. Never mind what is happening in Palestine if what happens in Palestine helps them promote a certain narrative seeking to advance Nationalism in Germany and in France. Are you really and truly German? Are you really and truly French? Politics moves towards identity politics. You belong or you don't belong. You are part of the national culture or you are not part of the national culture. Multiculturalism is seen as a failure and Identity politics is no friend of Multiculturalism.

In Britain, with differences in political language approach, the message is clear: 'Multiculturalism is becoming a National Security issue' and the Home Secretary - herself a member of an ethnic minority - is investing a lot of political capital going against Multiculturalism. She does not explicitily say it, but the nature of what she is saying is obviously going against Multiculturalism. Other political operators are less shy and strictly say 'that is not British, they are not British'. She is diving the country and Mosques are becoming a target again. Not a target for people like Paul Golding that has dedicated his political career to attack Mulisms. They are becoming a target for the privileged political classes, because the privileged classes are closer to Jewish interests than they are to Muslim interests.

For one reason or another, Identity Politics is being promoted by people who used to say that they stood against Identity Politics. In a reversal of roles, Identity Politics is not been promoted by now defunct political forces like the BNP, the National Front or Britain First. Identity Politics is coming from the very top of British politics. Listen to commentators like Nigel Farage. What is he constantly talking about?

Whatever happens today you must remember that the warmongers of today will shortly be history. Even hawkish scarecrow Mr John Bolton might not be around too long. He criticizes Joe Biden saying that Jo Biden is not aggressive enough. Well, John Bolton was fired by President Trump because John Bolton wanted President Trump to be more aggressive. In retirement, a few cups of lime tea will do John Bolton a lot of good.

 

 

CDU demise followed by rise of AfD

 In what has been qualified as a watershed moment in German politics, what could have been easily predicted has happened. AfD won a local election with 52.8% of the vote. The town of Sonneberg, in Thuringen, has elected Robert Sesselman as District Administrator. As it is customary, those who oppose anything truly German will use the usual labels to downgrade, insult and misrepresent the outcome of the election.

Next year in Saxony, Thuringen and Brandenburg there will be state parliament elections and this success points AfD in the right direction. 

They say that a majority of voters have turned their back on democracy. Well, the election was democratic and voters used their democratic right to choose an AfD candidate. They have not turned their back on democracy. They have merely use their democratic rights to choose who they want to rule them.

AfD is advancing thanks to the failures of CDU/CSU and it must be remember that SPD is now ruling Germany as head of a coalition without having increased their electoral votes. What actually happened is the SPD that didn't increase their electoral votes and had to form a coalition with FDP and Grunne is only represented in 11 of 16 German states.

AfD was founded by academics and bankers in 2013 and barely ten years later has 20% support across Germany. Two important characteristics: intellect and economic power, a winning recipe that is being felt across Germany.

British Politics: 2022 a crucially important moment

BBC? Channel 4? Radio? With audience levels falling and falling, how relevant they are compared to what they used to be 10, 20 or 30 years ago? How the digital era, including social media, have changed in terms of public opinion, in terms of their influence in decision making? This is an open conversation to talk frankly and politely.

This is about communication and about being able to listen to a wide range of points of view while keeping an open mind. Given what is going on in Europe, is there a mass media war?

Are anti-Russian measures and mass media policies leading to financial, social and political chaos in Britain and in Europe? Inflation is out of control, interest rates are rising, industrial unrest in increasing, both public debt and private debt are growing faster and faster, and countries could become unstable.

In Britain, more than a quarter of about 2.1 million mortgages could be in danger putting the banking system, once again, in danger, causing a lot more than a mere recession. What are your thoughts?

In the meantime, in Britain, as a defining moment gets closer, it is understandable that tensions will rise, but tensions will soon be followed by an anti-climax when the decision is made and minds are focused on what will be the next  Cabinet.

 As soon as the new Cabinet is known, there will be hyperactivity in both political parties.

Somehow, the initial thought was that the rise of industrial unrest would be benefit the Labour Party. What now transpires is that industrial unrest has opened a gap within the Labour Party because there are marked differences between the Leadership of the Labour Party and the Parliamentary Labour Party. As the Conservative Party gives whoever is chosen as Leader the benefit of the doubt - a sort of political honeymoon - the day after the honeymoon has already started within the Labour Party. It is going to be rough.

If rules regarding leadership contests are changed in the Labour Party, then Andy Burham and Sadiq Khan could become contenders. Should Liz Truss become Prime Minister, the pressure to chose a woman leader in the Labour Party will be unbearable and the present Deputy Leader would have more than one reason to challenge Keir Starmer as a female and as somebody who could be closer to the Trade Union Movement. 

Let us remember that all the aforementioned events have as background a crisis of major proportions at an international level and that whoever is in power in Britain and in other countries in Europe will have to deal with.

Time: Aug 7, 2022 06:00 PM London

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Gerhard Schröder: Burning links will only bring war in Europe a lot closer

Gerhard Schröder: Burning links will only bring war in Europe a lot closer

SPD has targetted its former leader and former German Chancellor for not wanting to join the movement towards war in Europe.

If German is destabilized by yet another war, the Fourth Reich will be born and those who now target Gerhard Schröder will be the ones that will fall the first when the debacle beings.

SPD is the head of a very weak coalition becaused SPD became head of a coalition without having won a significantly bigger number of votes. Olaf Scholz has a very hot potato in his hands. Industrialists and Workers joined forces 70 or so years ago and might join forces again when German manufacturing and the German economy in general falters. They will be asking for solutions that SPD will not be able to provide.

The National Socialist Workers' Party achieved what until then had become impossible because Liberals and Communists could not possible offer the economic solutions that were desperately needed. They offered the German version of the American New Deal. The present coalition cannot satisfy all sides and as the Greens keep putting pressure downwards with their ideological postulates about the environment, a German economy will once again face higher prices and unemployment of such levels that the political situation will become increasingly unstable leading to social unrest. As the CDU/CSU collapsed because it could not provide answers and as the SPD collapses, the direct alternative will be Alternative für Deutschland.

Without Conscription Britain is doomed

 

Without conscription, Britain is doomed. Never mind the chit chat of people like Liz Truss and others. President Putin stated the obvious: we have not even started. Having said that, conscription will be seen as mobilization and mobilization will ellicit a response.

For several years now, the Russian Federation has been turning the Russian Armed Forces into fully professional Armed Forces for several reasons and many that are not related to military purposes. In the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces are called to play a social role providing social stability and continuous preparation, promoting existing skills and developing new skills that will come handy in case of armed conflict. Once again, British journalists and Western journalists in general have been found wanting because they are driven by prejudices and misconceptions instead of being driven by factual evidence.

As annecdotical evidence, there was a particular moment in British history - Market Garden. Montgomery planned a military operation in the Netherlands that was supposed to bring the war to an earlier end by taking over Netherlands and reaching the German industrial heart. Those who were supposed to achieve the military objective were told that the German Armed Forces would only have children, elderly soldiers and inexperienced troops not able to tackle the contingent of British, American and Polish troops sent to capture bridges in the Netherlands. They were literally slaughtered by German Armed Forces many of whom were made up of seasoned elite troops including SS contingents. It was a complete and utter disaster, but for political reasons for several years the British tried to disguise it as a success. When the Russian Federation says that it hasn't started yet, the Russian Federation has not started yet. Ukraine is 1936 Spain, a training ground, an exercise, a drill for what is to come.

Incompetent British politicians are more interested in personal power games, instead of focusing on the real issues facing Britain. Boris Johnson was talking about a 2.5% increase of the military budget. Cosmetics. Meaningless soudbites. Utter nonsense. Military scouts should be right now visiting education centres to select individuals who could be potential material to beef up the British Armed Forces and military service should have already been introduced. The fact that nothing of the sort is being done tells you that Britain is not just blissfully unprepared. Britain does not have the will to be prepared.

   

If Liberals and Greens prevail, National Socialism will be back in Germany and the Fourth Reich will be born

 

Although he did not refer to it by name, Frans Timmerman, European Union Deputy said it.

Europe is in danger of highly damaging "very, very strong conflict and strife" this winter over high energy prices, and should make a short-term return to fossil fuels to head off the threat of civil unrest. Not my words, but the words of Frans Timmerman, Vice-President of the European Commission.

He stated by lack of energy will lead to strong disruption in our societes. We need to make sure we keep our industry, as much as possible. Once again, sanctions and measures implemented against the Russian Federation have backfired. Coal will have to be used (main source of energy in Germany). He remarked that present policies about coal would contribute to tensions within our society getting even higher. Frans Timmerman is Dutch and he knows fairly well that, when things go wrong. Netherlands will be among the first countries that will suffer the consequences of what happens in Germany. Two World War attest to that.

Fear is already spreading. They are waking up. Germany has a ruling coalition, but only just. Until 2017, SPD - head of the present ruling coalition - was CDU/CSU partner. Angela Merkel ruined the CDU/CSU and was forced to resign as leader of CDU as pre-condition to remain as Chancellor until 2022. In 2022, CDU/CSU was crashed and without increating its vote SPD became the biggest party. It has to be said that SPD - unlike AfD - has no representation in 5 of the 16 Federal German States. SPD is hanging from its fingernails and any economic disaster will throw the present coalition into disarray. And then what will follow? Both German industrialists and trade unions are talking about an impending disaster if the energy crisis pushed German over the edge.

Now lets look at the argument about reduction of the use of fossil fuels. Angela Merkel dismantled German nuclear energy making Germany ever more dependent on coal, oil and gas. German does not have enough capacity to story liquidified gas. Do people really believe that if China has any intention to project its military might in Asia the environment is really a priority? China will be seeking to maximize use of any source of energy, including coal, to propel its military capabilities. In case of war, more and more fossil fuels will be used. Weakening Europe economically, socially, politically and militarily is not the way forward.

There was a passing reference to the Developing World and the consequences of the present situation in the Developing World.  

 

The Human Cost of Energy Crisis and the threat of war to make money

 

When the President and the Vice President of the USA so casually talk about war, lets be reminded of what war means. Neighter Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris have ever been closed to a real threatre of war.

In Britain, writing for The Guardian, Simon Jenkins says 'that Britain shuold stay well out of Russia's border dispute with Ukraine. Also in Britain The Independent states in one of its articles that USA wishes to go to war.

Before there is any major war in Europe, energy costs are crippling economies and causing prices to rise throwing more and more families into poverty. Can you imagine what could happen if there was a real major conflict in Europe?

Cost of energy in Germany are leading to major inflation rises and the idea that Germany will not be able to rely on imports coming from the East - namely the Russian Federation - is nothing less than a nightmare. Year after year, the political environment in Germany has become more and more fragmented. SPD only manage to win the Federal Election not because of gaining more votes, but because CDU/CSU went down dramatically. Germany is polarized between right and left and those who know the history of Germany know that this no good. 

Both France and Germany are pushing for talks with both Ukraine and the Russian Federation - a group of four talks - to bypass NATO and the USA. They do so because they don't trust the USA's intentions?  USA wants War in Europe, a war that will be completely detrimental for Europe. But greed in the USA has no limits. For several years, the USA has been stockpiling oil and gas and especially gas that comes from fracking and needs to make money with it. By blocking the Baltic pipeline between the Russian Federation and Germany, Europe becomes ever more dependent of American exports that the USA is sending to Europe as 'aid to alleviate shortages'. So there is money to be made and the American intention of going to war against Russia is yet another economic war as the illegal invasion of Iraq was an economic war.

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

National reactions to the Corona Virus crisis show the true state of the European Union. Border fences up. Freedom of Movement and the Schengen agreement go out through the window. National priorities kick in.

Germany is on a slippery slope downwards. The 2017 Federal Elections proved extremely difficult for Angela Merkel's CDU. After losing ground, SPD - their coalition partner - walked away not wanting to be in a coalition. In a desperate effort, Angela Merkel tried to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen, attempt that proved to be unsuccessful. Why would the Grünen want an agreement with a losing political party when their numbers are going up? They went up in the Federal Election and they went up in state elections after the Federal Election. In fact, Grünen and Alternative für Deutschland are the net winners. In Brandenburg, in Bavaria, in Saxony, in Hesse and in Thüringen, the trend is very similar. Moreover, in Thüringen, CDU joined forces with Alternative für Deutschland to get rid of the Die Linke head of government and soonafter that the heir apparent of Angela Merkel (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) resigned soonafter.

The context for the new European Union budget includes the fact that Germany and others will have to fill up the financial gap generated by the British withdrawal. Tens of billions of Pounds will have to be found and the remaining 27 countries don't seem to be able to reach an agreement. France is facing an internal struggle with internal political problemas of her own. Spain just had elections in which no political party got an overall majority and a compromise had to be found to appoint a new government. Italy is still on the grip of an ongoing political struggle and shaken by migration. We could go on analyzing what other EU countries are going through. On top of all the troubles comes the Corona Virus with a whole new set of challenges. European Union economies are bound to suffer a great deal and the response to the crisis has been fragmentary. Unless the European Union manages to find common ground, a response based on closure of national borders will do very little to reassure members of the public about the integrity of the European Union. 

Having said that, there are other concerns. If the European Union cannot show unity and integrity when faced with a health emergency, what will happen if the European Union is faced with external aggression. Will it withstand external aggression or will it collapse along the cracks of national borders?  Whoever has a potential interest in testing the European Union's capatity to react as a block is carefully tracking European Union countries responses? Will they come together as one or will they fail to achieve a common response?

Germany: Thuringen could set the tone of German politics

Germany: Thuringen could set the tone of German politics

Angela Merkel is now the Chancellor supported by a political party that doesn't have a leader after the leader she chose to succeed her (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaeur) resigned saying that she doesn't have enough support in the CDU.

In Thuringen, the fraction of CDU chose to vote together with Alternative für Deutschland and now the CDU itself is in limbo having to choose between left and right.

After five elections - a Federal Election in which CDU/CSU and their then partners SPD suffered significant losses - and four state elections (Brandenburg, Bavaria, Hesse and Saxony in which Alternative für Deutschland and Grünen made important gains), have been followed by what happened in Thüringen that led to the resignation of the party leader.

Will CDU decide to side with Die Linke linked to the Communist Party of the former East Germany? Will CDU decide to side with Alternative für Deutschland? CDU has been caught between a rock and a hard place. If there was to be another Federal Election, what are the chances of a leaderless political party?  SPD has already announced that if Angela Merkel falls they will not enter into a new coalition.

And this happens when discussions about the new European Union budget are ongoing and the crisis generated by coronavirus in China could affect German trade with China and the future relationship with Britain is very much in doubt. Germany without stable governance is not a stable Germany and the more politically fragmented the more difficult it will be to take important decisions both at national and international level.

European Union: Poland's troubles are just the beginning.

European Union: Poland troubles are just the beginning

Recent internal elections in SPD in Germany have led to new problems for Angela Merkel. The new leadership of SPD is demanding further concessions that Angela Merkel has dimmed unacceptable and this could mean the end of the ruling coalition. The German Chancellor who is no longer the leader of her own poilitcal party -CDU - knows that additional financial burdens that come on top of having to supply additional monies for the European Union will have a political cost that she cannot afford. 

SPD is making more financial demands, regardless of the fact that SPD lost the 2017 Federal Elections and has lost in every single state election that came afterwards -= Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony and Hesse in which Alternative für Deutschland and Grünen made huge advances. Alternative für Deutschland is the official German Opposition in the Bundestag and commands support in every single one of the sixteen regional parliaments in Germany.

It has been reported that it could take up to a year to approve the European Union budget and German taxpayers are in no mood to increase financial contributions via higher taxes or increased borrowing. If the German coalition falls, Angela Merkel could become the Chancellor in a minority government or even fall from power to be replaced by the present leader of CDU.

This comes as more and more CDU politicians are choosing to work together with Alternative für Deutschland despite threats issued by Angela Merkel herself to deter CDU membrers from effectively joining Alternative für Deutschland at local level. Let's remember that Germany is the driving force within the European Union and that her main partner - France - is facing times of great political uncertainty.

The landslide victory of the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom must have come as a bucket of cold water not just for Germany but for others within the ruling elites of the European Union who are now threatening to refuse to approve the Withdrawal Agreement that they themselves negotiated with the Conservative Government. The mere possibility of a No Deal outcome is what Germany's CDU fears most. They know that Germany will have to face pressures coming not just from the USA that doesn't want EU unfair trade practices but also from an invigorated United Kingdom. Germany sees its position as net expoeter threatened and this means less votes if the German economy falters.

If Poland were to leave the European Union soon to be followed by others, one wonders what could be worse: the political and psychological implications of mone countries leaving the European Union or the financial consequences. Just a few weeks ago, President Macron blocked the accession of Albania and North Macedonia arguing that it would no be advisable to incorporate new countries without implementing urgent reforms before such accession is even contemplated. Adding more countries that will be net receivers of EU funding is a recipe for disaster at a time when the main funders of the European Union are facing troubles of their own.

   

With Angela Merkel's tremor, German faces political tremors

With Angela Merkel's tremor, German faces political tremors

There is fantasy and there is political reality. At ta time when the EU faces extraordinary challenges, to see the German Leader going through what was justified as dehidration is extremely worrying, no matter what they say to justify what is in plein view.

The EU faces a potentially extraordinarily damaging set of circumstances. The struggle with the USA in terms of economics, the upheaval affecting several key EU countries and also some later newcomers into the EU, the prospect of a war in Asia Minor and the Middle East that could make other conflicts looks like minor incidents and the set of circumstances that have led to the loss of faith in so called centre parties are very much part of the picture.

None of those set to replace Angela Merkel is well known enough or has the necessary profile to keep the German ruling coalition together. Let us remember how the present coalition was born. In 2017, the CDU/CSU won a very narrow victory with an ever smaller majority. Because of the reluctance of SPD to form a coaltion after SPD was severely beaten, Angela Merkel had to go for FPD and Grünne. When her attempt to form a coalition with |FPD and Grünne, in despair, she went back to SPD that seeing that the absence of a coalition would lead to yet another Federal Election in which much more could be lost decided to agree terms with Angela Merkel. After that, came several regional elections - one in Bavaria and another one in Hesse where CDU, CSU and SPD lost ever more ground for the benefit of Alternative für Deutschland and Grünne.

As a consequence of loss after loss, Angela Merkel agreed to resign as CDU Leader while remaining German Chancellor until the end of her term in office. Now, the possibility of Angela Merkel having to resign as Chancellor brings back the reality of yet another Federal Election that in view of what is happening right now could lead to major electoral losses and the rise of other political forces including Alternative für Deutschland.

So what you see could herald significant political changes with enormous geopolitical implications.

Germany and the Nationalist Movement in Britain

Germany and the Nationalist Movement in Britain

Unlike the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition, true German Nationalists are now in Britain working together to build a movement that will work for an Europe of Independent European Nations with their own identity working together.

At a meeting in Bromley, Southeast London, German representatives met to launch a new initiative that will completely change the face of British Nationalism in the United Kingdom. For decades, British Nationalism was associated with National Front and British National Party - a shoot of National Front. More recently we have seen the rise of organisations like the United Kingdom Independence Party, English Democrats, Britain First, For Britain and others. But the aforementioned never had a clear view nor a proper strategy. They have been seen as either Protest organisations and/or organisations with a very narrow and limited agenda.

Moreover, at one point or another the emphasis has been on winning elections and electoral losses have been followed by frustration leading to division and disintegration. The new approach is dramatically different. The idea is to disregard elections and focus on ground work that will provide the structures and leading figures that can have much greater influence working inside the system rather that trying to attack the system and wasting an enormous amount of resources in the process.

Financial resources and know-how and proper training are being provided. One of the crucial aspects of political activity is that firstly those doing the job were not paid and secondly that many resources are wasted in sterile campaigning that includes improper control of resources. One clear example is the British National Party that after a series of successes was destroyed by infighting and improper use of resources. At this very minute, the Leader and the Deputy Leader of the British National Party are facing a legal challenge for improper use of resources and political dereliction of duty.

The general idea is that in the present climate that includes a hostile mass media the traditional ways of being involved in politics could not provide the desired outcomes.

British elements will be coached and trained both in the United Kingdom and in Germany proper and individual are chosen using a very strict vetting process. Minimum remuneration for those chosen will be of not let than £50,000 a year.

Theresa May; The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History with dramatic repercussions for EU

Theresa May: The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History

As events come to a climax in the House of Commons with the final vote on the Brexit Deal broke out by Prime Minister Theresa May, we keep an eye on what is happening in Germany at the heart of CDU - one of the key components of the ruling German Coalition headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel gave up his place as Leader of CDU and was succeeded by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that is seen as a moderate Leader that came up a winner leaving behind Angela Merkel's archenemy Friedrich Merz.

But in spite of this, it could be the case that Angela Merkel will not last until the end her term as German Chancellor that is conditional to their junior coalition partner the SPD.

When in Germany there is the equivalent of a political tsunami, in France things are getting thicker by the minute. The Gilet Jaune Movement could lead to a state of emergency of even the use of the military against protesters. If this were to happen, it would prove that President Macron on top of being one of the least - if not the least - popular President in the history of France has literally not a leg to stand on.

As Germany and France keep pushing towards forcing EU member countries to accept immigrants or face a heave price by having to subsidise countries that do accept immigrants, the situation in the remaining EU countries is not straightforward. If the Theresa May's deal is rejected by the House of Commons it will also add to the political uncertainty in the European Union piling up financial tensions. Without British money (Britain is the second most important donor to finance the EU Budget), Germany and France would have go cap in hand to ask for more monies to finance the EU budget and pay for flood immigration.

Let us remember that the budget proposed for Italy by the Italian ruling coalition was rejected by the European Union and that Italy is not fit to provide any more funding for the EU. Other countries, including Greece but not exclusively Greece don't have the financial capacity to pay more for the EU Budget either.

In the last election, Angela Merkel that barely managed to gather the votes to form a government was forced to engage in a series of negotiations with FDP and Grünen. When efforts to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen failed, at the last minute she reached an agreement with SPD. What happened next tells the full story. In state elections in Bavaria, both the CSU (associate party of CDU) and SPD were routed in the elections. Then came CDU's turn in Hesse with comparable losses. The natural consequence was that Alternative für Deutschland has now representatives not just in the Bundestag but also in every single State Parliament in Germany. Will a fragile ruling coalition be able to extract more money from German taxpayers without causing another political rift?

At this point in time, all those who want Britain to remain a member of the European Union must ask themselves very serious questions. They need to be thinking very carefully about the kind of the European Union that is coming. Zac Goldsmith - Jewish Conservative MP - spoke very clearly about the political threats in an European Union that is in meltdown.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. For all the talk about a transition period that could go as far as 2020 in some cases or even 2022, or even become an "indefinite transition period", it is impossible to predict the kind of European Union that will be around during such transition period.

For Theresa May the date is December 11th 2019, according to the latest bit of news. But there are rumours about the vote in the House of Commons being postponed to avert a disastrous defeat that could put an end to Theresa May's Premiership leading to massive political conflicts. What will actually happen on December 11th 2019 and soon after December 11th 2019 is everybody's guess but what we have seen and heard is not reassuring.