Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

National reactions to the Corona Virus crisis show the true state of the European Union. Border fences up. Freedom of Movement and the Schengen agreement go out through the window. National priorities kick in.

Germany is on a slippery slope downwards. The 2017 Federal Elections proved extremely difficult for Angela Merkel's CDU. After losing ground, SPD - their coalition partner - walked away not wanting to be in a coalition. In a desperate effort, Angela Merkel tried to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen, attempt that proved to be unsuccessful. Why would the Grünen want an agreement with a losing political party when their numbers are going up? They went up in the Federal Election and they went up in state elections after the Federal Election. In fact, Grünen and Alternative für Deutschland are the net winners. In Brandenburg, in Bavaria, in Saxony, in Hesse and in Thüringen, the trend is very similar. Moreover, in Thüringen, CDU joined forces with Alternative für Deutschland to get rid of the Die Linke head of government and soonafter that the heir apparent of Angela Merkel (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) resigned soonafter.

The context for the new European Union budget includes the fact that Germany and others will have to fill up the financial gap generated by the British withdrawal. Tens of billions of Pounds will have to be found and the remaining 27 countries don't seem to be able to reach an agreement. France is facing an internal struggle with internal political problemas of her own. Spain just had elections in which no political party got an overall majority and a compromise had to be found to appoint a new government. Italy is still on the grip of an ongoing political struggle and shaken by migration. We could go on analyzing what other EU countries are going through. On top of all the troubles comes the Corona Virus with a whole new set of challenges. European Union economies are bound to suffer a great deal and the response to the crisis has been fragmentary. Unless the European Union manages to find common ground, a response based on closure of national borders will do very little to reassure members of the public about the integrity of the European Union. 

Having said that, there are other concerns. If the European Union cannot show unity and integrity when faced with a health emergency, what will happen if the European Union is faced with external aggression. Will it withstand external aggression or will it collapse along the cracks of national borders?  Whoever has a potential interest in testing the European Union's capatity to react as a block is carefully tracking European Union countries responses? Will they come together as one or will they fail to achieve a common response?

Theresa May; The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History with dramatic repercussions for EU

Theresa May: The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History

As events come to a climax in the House of Commons with the final vote on the Brexit Deal broke out by Prime Minister Theresa May, we keep an eye on what is happening in Germany at the heart of CDU - one of the key components of the ruling German Coalition headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel gave up his place as Leader of CDU and was succeeded by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that is seen as a moderate Leader that came up a winner leaving behind Angela Merkel's archenemy Friedrich Merz.

But in spite of this, it could be the case that Angela Merkel will not last until the end her term as German Chancellor that is conditional to their junior coalition partner the SPD.

When in Germany there is the equivalent of a political tsunami, in France things are getting thicker by the minute. The Gilet Jaune Movement could lead to a state of emergency of even the use of the military against protesters. If this were to happen, it would prove that President Macron on top of being one of the least - if not the least - popular President in the history of France has literally not a leg to stand on.

As Germany and France keep pushing towards forcing EU member countries to accept immigrants or face a heave price by having to subsidise countries that do accept immigrants, the situation in the remaining EU countries is not straightforward. If the Theresa May's deal is rejected by the House of Commons it will also add to the political uncertainty in the European Union piling up financial tensions. Without British money (Britain is the second most important donor to finance the EU Budget), Germany and France would have go cap in hand to ask for more monies to finance the EU budget and pay for flood immigration.

Let us remember that the budget proposed for Italy by the Italian ruling coalition was rejected by the European Union and that Italy is not fit to provide any more funding for the EU. Other countries, including Greece but not exclusively Greece don't have the financial capacity to pay more for the EU Budget either.

In the last election, Angela Merkel that barely managed to gather the votes to form a government was forced to engage in a series of negotiations with FDP and Grünen. When efforts to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen failed, at the last minute she reached an agreement with SPD. What happened next tells the full story. In state elections in Bavaria, both the CSU (associate party of CDU) and SPD were routed in the elections. Then came CDU's turn in Hesse with comparable losses. The natural consequence was that Alternative für Deutschland has now representatives not just in the Bundestag but also in every single State Parliament in Germany. Will a fragile ruling coalition be able to extract more money from German taxpayers without causing another political rift?

At this point in time, all those who want Britain to remain a member of the European Union must ask themselves very serious questions. They need to be thinking very carefully about the kind of the European Union that is coming. Zac Goldsmith - Jewish Conservative MP - spoke very clearly about the political threats in an European Union that is in meltdown.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. For all the talk about a transition period that could go as far as 2020 in some cases or even 2022, or even become an "indefinite transition period", it is impossible to predict the kind of European Union that will be around during such transition period.

For Theresa May the date is December 11th 2019, according to the latest bit of news. But there are rumours about the vote in the House of Commons being postponed to avert a disastrous defeat that could put an end to Theresa May's Premiership leading to massive political conflicts. What will actually happen on December 11th 2019 and soon after December 11th 2019 is everybody's guess but what we have seen and heard is not reassuring.

Katie Hopkins: Straight questions and the answer is more than obvious

The vast majority of those fleeing Muslim countries end up in Europe or in the USA. Why? Why do they choose Christian countries? A straight question that demolishes Multiculturalism. Multiculturalism is much more than failed proposition. Multiculturalism is a recipe for ethnic cleansing. 

Those who pursue such failed proposition that leads to ethnic cleansing should be pushed out of the way and this is more or less what is happening in Germany. Angela Merkel got in in a very disputed Federal Election facing Gerhard Schröder. She became the strong woman that opened the immigration floodgates without consulting with other EU countries and generated a mess of massive proportions that is leading the European Continent towards the Right. She should have received a medal awarded by Islamic State. Single-handed she has caused more chaos than Islamic State could have caused if it had had the opportunity. Now, after two disastrous electoral results in Bavaria and in Hesse, Angela Merkel had to beg her own political party to allow her to continue as Chancellor having resigned the leadership of CDU. "Please, I give up CDU Leadership but allow me to continue as Chancellor." It would be a complete and utter disaster for CDU if she stood in the coming Leadership Election in December. 

The Fall of Angela Merkel is significant. She is no longer the Strong Leader she once was and her disciple Emmanuel Macron even dared to contradict her on fundamental issues of Foreign Policy. And what about Brexit? Since Angela Merkel has been the deal breaker, the one who decides what kind of Brexit there will be, her fall from grace will have repercussions. Although she could stay as Chancellor the political calculations are not in her favour.

In the Federal Election, CDU/CSU lost and also her temporary partner SPD lost by association with Angela Merkel. In Bavaria, CSU and SPD lost. In Hesse, CDU and SPD lost. By contrast the Grünen and AfD were the real winners. What will this mean in terms of budgets and policies? Will she be a Lame Duck Chancellor at a time when critical decisions need to be made?

Germany is one piece of the puzzle. An entire continent is moving against Liberalism. Movements for strong national identities are winning the day and stating very clearly that Islam doesn't belong in Europe. In the United Kingdom, the Political Establishment is panicking and taking extreme measures. We are told that MI5 is going to take over Police duties and we might end in a situation in which any dissident that rejects Multiculturalism, rejects Islam and supports a strong National Identity might be seen as Extremist or Terrorist. We see has is already happening to those who campaign against Islamic Extremists. Paul Golding, Jayda Fransen, Tommy Robinson and others are being targeted by the Political Establishment. They have either being in jail, threatened with jail sentences or on their way to jail. Lizzie Dearden from The Independent as always involved in witch-hunting is now targeting Social Media and comments about cooperation between Movements across national borders is the talk of the day.   

Angela Merkel's Dilemma: If there is no Brexit deal, German car exports in danger?

A No Deal in Brexit negotiations could prove fatal for Angela Merkel as German Chancellor and Leader of CDU, after the battering suffered by CSU in Bavaria. Why? German Car Exports are vital for Germany's economy. CDU's leadership election by the end of this year will be the next thing to follow to know if Angela Merkel would still be German Chancellor by March 2019 when UK is due to leave the European Union. With the issue of Immigration as hot potato that is seriously damaging relations between EU countries, adding financial uncertainty at a time when German taxpayers will have to be asked to pay more to replace the monies provided by the United Kingdom to the EU is not the best move. Having said that, what would then be Germany's choices?

Considerations about the political future of Angela Merkel and of the ruling coalition are on the horizon. After performing very badly in a Federal Election, Angela Merkel firstly tried to form a coalition with FDP and Grünen. When this failed to produce a viable coalition, Angela Merkel reached out to try and persuade SPD to come on board. Looking at results in Bavaria, both CSU and SPD lost badly and Grünen was one of the winners.

Now, this is the political map. CDU is in coalition with CSU and SPD (both losers in Bavaria's election) and CSU could be forced to form a coalition with Grünen in Bavaria. What kind of policies can come out of such political mix?

More than ever before, Angela Merkel needs a deal to protect the German Car Industry to keep the German economy on track to be able to increase its financial support for the European Union. Factor 1: Germany needs whatever financial contribution it can get from a successful deal with the United Kingdom. Factor 2: Germany needs to make sure that its German Car Exports are not dramatically affected. There are reports indicating that Germany could lose up to 57% of its Car Exports.

Whatever happens elsewhere in the European Union, Germany is the country to look at. Germany was a key country to form the Common Market, later called European Community and now called European Union. If Germany falters, the entire project would be in danger.

There are many pieces of the EU puzzle. France is another key piece and President Macron is nowadays of the most unpopular Presidents in the history of France. His approval levels have fallen dramatically. Italy is at odds with EU. On the one hand, Italy desperately needs to spend to maintain some kind of economic stability and avoid a political meltdown but its budget needs to be approved by an EU that doesn't like big deficits. No one would have enough resources to salvage both the French economy and the Italian economy while other minor players like Greece are themselves in dire straights.

The EU desperately needs trade to stay afloat. Much of the "intransigent approach of the European Union" is based not on real strength but on fear. The European Union is big but very slow. There are far too many differences and inconsistencies between European Union countries.

A good Brexit Deal benefits all parties. A No Deal could simply accelerate the process of disintegration of the European Union.   

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

The European Union is being playing with the situation in Northern Ireland as a way for force the United Kingdom into submission but this has backfired as UK moves towards Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

Yesterday in the House of Commons it became explicitly clear that the Good Friday Agreement is no more because Sinn Fein violated the terms of the agreement by walking away from the Northern Ireland Assembly and staying away from it for more than 500 days. This is one less thing to worry about and if Sinn Fein doesn't return there will be Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

The other issue the EU has being playing with is what is known as 'Hard Border' between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is not a problem for UK. If the EU and/or the Republic of Ireland want to pay for it they are free to do so.

Speculation about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister has also being used to blackmail the UK government but Jeremy Corbyn could only get in if there is a General Election and in principle there is not going to be a General Election until 2022. Britain is a Parliamentary Democracy and Prime Ministers can come and go without the need of having a General Election.

Whatever happens in EU, everything revolves around Berlin. Angela Merkel has just had a scare when tensions led to a potential break up between CDU and CSU. In Bavaria, Alternative für Deutschland is advancing as CSU is retreating. Angela Merkel struggled to form a coalition just a few months ago when she failed to form such a coalition with FDP and Grünen and after great effort she managed to get a deal with SDP. But without CSU, a General Election would be practically a given with no hope of success.

One out of six German cars is exported to UK and tensions with US in what is seen as a trade war could make it very difficult for Germany to be able to export cars to US. Angela Merkel knows that she is walking on thin ice and this is why the latest developments in the United Kingdom regarding an agreement within the Conservative Party Cabinet didn't elicit any comments. EU heads chose to remain silent for fear of tilting the situation towards a No Deal that could badly damage German industries.

As time goes by, with the resignation of more members of the British Cabinet, Prime Minister Theresa's May situation becomes ever more precarious and a No Deal would be the end result. The EU is now seeing that trying to blackmail the UK government was a very serious mistake.

We cannot possibly foresee the outcome but it has been said that some of the conditions agreed at Checkers would make it impossible to have a Free Trade Deal with the US. If this is the case, the proposals would already be dead.