Brexit: EU is playing with fire

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

The European Union is being playing with the situation in Northern Ireland as a way for force the United Kingdom into submission but this has backfired as UK moves towards Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

Yesterday in the House of Commons it became explicitly clear that the Good Friday Agreement is no more because Sinn Fein violated the terms of the agreement by walking away from the Northern Ireland Assembly and staying away from it for more than 500 days. This is one less thing to worry about and if Sinn Fein doesn't return there will be Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

The other issue the EU has being playing with is what is known as 'Hard Border' between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is not a problem for UK. If the EU and/or the Republic of Ireland want to pay for it they are free to do so.

Speculation about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister has also being used to blackmail the UK government but Jeremy Corbyn could only get in if there is a General Election and in principle there is not going to be a General Election until 2022. Britain is a Parliamentary Democracy and Prime Ministers can come and go without the need of having a General Election.

Whatever happens in EU, everything revolves around Berlin. Angela Merkel has just had a scare when tensions led to a potential break up between CDU and CSU. In Bavaria, Alternative für Deutschland is advancing as CSU is retreating. Angela Merkel struggled to form a coalition just a few months ago when she failed to form such a coalition with FDP and Grünen and after great effort she managed to get a deal with SDP. But without CSU, a General Election would be practically a given with no hope of success.

One out of six German cars is exported to UK and tensions with US in what is seen as a trade war could make it very difficult for Germany to be able to export cars to US. Angela Merkel knows that she is walking on thin ice and this is why the latest developments in the United Kingdom regarding an agreement within the Conservative Party Cabinet didn't elicit any comments. EU heads chose to remain silent for fear of tilting the situation towards a No Deal that could badly damage German industries.

As time goes by, with the resignation of more members of the British Cabinet, Prime Minister Theresa's May situation becomes ever more precarious and a No Deal would be the end result. The EU is now seeing that trying to blackmail the UK government was a very serious mistake.

We cannot possibly foresee the outcome but it has been said that some of the conditions agreed at Checkers would make it impossible to have a Free Trade Deal with the US. If this is the case, the proposals would already be dead.