Tuesday, 17 June 2025
World Conflicts: what we see is an exercise of imperial power and control
Monday, 26 May 2025
Friedrich Merz: One country´s actions can trigger a chain reaction
Friedrich Merz: One country´s actions can trigger a chain reaction
Wednesday, 8 January 2025
Alexander Gauland: one plus one equal two
Alexander Gauland: one plus one equals two
Wednesday, 18 December 2024
Friedrich Merz: New German Chancellor?
Friedrich Merz: New German Chancellor?
Friday, 8 November 2024
A New Political Era for Europe: Germany falters
The announcement that the German coalition headed by SPD has collapsed leaves in power a government headed by a political party that in three recent state elections failed dramatically to capture the public imagination. In three consecutive elections, Grüne barely managed to get 7 representatives out of 88, 119 and 88. This is how bad things are and they are bound to get worse. Support for the war in Ukraine has banrupted Germany and attempts to increase borrowing led to a political showdown leading to the end of coalition that was unsustainable from the very begining.
FDP and Grüne are exact opposites in various ways and such agreement was bound to end in tears. Can a Federal Election clear the air? Such election would take place in March 2025 and not in September 2025. Germany has been leading and financing the European Union. Changes in German politics are bound to have a significant effect in terms of German leadership and of the survival of the European Union. Talks about increasing defence expenditure are bound to go anywhere as Germany tries to sanitanize its own finances. Job losses already announced are not going to make the present coalition popular amongst voters.
Who could be the real winners in March 2024? There could be three potential winners: CDU, a new political party that had success in recent state elections and Alternative für Deutschland. The one party that has a real project for Germany is Alternative für Deutschland, a project that takes care of Germany´s energy needs and of migration - a subject that is a major concern in many European countries, including Germany.
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
As economic figures show decline, EU Panic over immigration
One by one, EU countries are now panicking over immigration. The announcement of massive job losses in Germany, accompanied by news about border controls that go against the spirit of the Schengen Agreement don't go easy down the throats of German voters that are now turning to support AfD and/or walking away from the ruling coalition SDP/Grüne/FDP and this poses many questions about the coming Federal Election, after three state elections - Germany has 16 Federal States - in which vote for Alternative für Deutschland was 29% in the worst of cases and peaked at more than 33%. The use of the word ´peak´ is relative as the economic and financial situation hangs in the balance and as months go by the state of the German economy could be even worse thus favouring the vote for Alternative für Deutschland and for another 'leftwing Party' that has pushed Die Linke to the side and is making inroads in German Politics. Two options - one Right and one Left - and both anti-immigration have pushed the ruling coalition to curb migration into Germany.
As this happens, in France, Michel Barnier - a Prime Minister of necessity - after President Macron lost both the European Parliament Elections and the French Assembly Elections - is also inclined to talk against migration and the word 'Deportation' is going around. Italy has also spoken for closing borders and now there is the mention that EU makers and breakers want to have a dialogue to coordinate with Britain the transit of migrants. Keir Starmer stated today 'that being worried about migration is not Far Right', a clear change after Keir Starmer's trip to Italy when he met Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.
They also seem to remember Angela Merkel and blame for her open invitation to migrants to come to Germany. That was German Chancellor Angela Merkel then also Leader of the CDU. It must also be remember that soonafter she stated 'Multikulti ist tot', publicly declared that multiculturalism had completely failed in Germany.
Tuesday, 3 September 2024
Alternative for Germany - Is there an Alternative for Germany?
Is there an Alternative for Germany?
Friday, 21 June 2024
Why mainstream political parties are losing ground and fringe parties have become mainstream?
Just a decade ago, CDU/CSU used to call the shot in German politics and European politics. In fact, the German Chancellor and the French President used to have the final word in quite a few of the most important decisions made by the European Union.
But it must be said that CDU/CSU had to cohabitate with SPD in a marriage of convenience and this lasted until CDU/CSU fell catastrophically opening the way for the unthinkable: a coalition between German Conservatives FPD, SPD Social Democrats and Grüne Socialists.
The EU Parliament Elections have shown a rebirth of CDU and allowed AfD to surpass SPD while FPD and Grüne have fallen.
The call is very straightforward: German peoples do matter and must be the main priority for Germany. Decades of open doors and policies that mainly benefit non Germans have been rejected by German voters that face a very uncertain future as German economics has been seriously undermined both by environmental policies and an energy crisis that has increased energy costs and cut energy supplies.
Pushing forward environmental policies at the expense of the German economy is not good policy. The first two gigantic mistakes were made by Angela Merkel when she decided to get rid of nuclear power and open the floodgates for migration. Her almost unilateral decisions created animosity in Eastern Europe as most people coming to Germany had to go through Eastern European countries to reach Germany. Then, she made the equally astonishing statement ´Multikulti ist tot´ (Multikulturalism is dead). We are not in the mind of Angela Merkel, but we can guess that since then she has regretted getting rid of Nuclear Power and of having open the floodgates for migration.
By the end of her reign as German Chancellor, her own political party was not ready to give her a blank cheque. In order to remain as German Chancellor she was forced to resign as Leader of the CDU.
In France, Emmanuel Macron saw that he could not go on as usual when his official candidate for Prime Mnister got barely 15% in the European Parliament Elections. The decision to call for a Parliamentary Election was not easy but it had to be taken. Left, Right and Centre rejected his policies. Now, on June 30th and on July 1st, he faces the challenge and the possibility of having a Rassemblement National Prime Minister and a hostile National Assembly till the end of his term as French President. Emmanuel Macron will still have veto power, but from a political point of view he might have to deal with policies that go very much against his own policies. So both in the French Assembly and in the European Parliament decisions would be in the hands of Rassemblement National.
Thursday, 23 November 2023
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez: agreement with Catalunya's politicians generates political disquiet
Just a short time ago, Catalunyan politicians were persecuted and even imprisoned for daring to organise an independence referendum. There is also the issue of Catalunya's debt to be declared fully paid.
There is discontent in Spain regarding such agreements. Some said that those who were declared to have violated the Spanish Constitution are now being pardoned as a way to ensure political continuity. There are also those who say that the agreements were an essential part of a deal to maintain political stability in Spain as a whole.
It is difficult to foresee the outcome of the present political impasse. Will the agreement re-ignite the independence process or was the agreement reached with pre-conditions that could prevent another referendum? Was a financial package for Catalunya a way to buy time? As long as the agreements do not lead to yet another political crisis, Pedro Sanchez should feel that it was the right option in a country in which absolute majorities seem to be a thing of the past.
Spain is not alone. Just hours ago, Netherlands went through an electoral process with the aim of choosing a new Prime Minister. Being a majority is no guarantee. Because of political fragmentation, the political party that got more votes (more than 30 per cent) is by no means assured of being able to choose the next Dutch Prime Minister.
In Germany, the survival of the ruling coalition led by Olaf Scholz is by no means guaranteed and we have a long way to go before the next Federal Elections due to take place in 2025. In recent state elections, CDU seemed to recover although only a little and Alternative fur Deutschland has reached more than 21 of popular support.
We could go on reviewing what is happening in different countries of the European Union and finding similar situations across the board.
Tuesday, 27 June 2023
CDU demise followed by rise of AfD
In what has been qualified as a watershed moment in German politics, what could have been easily predicted has happened. AfD won a local election with 52.8% of the vote. The town of Sonneberg, in Thuringen, has elected Robert Sesselman as District Administrator. As it is customary, those who oppose anything truly German will use the usual labels to downgrade, insult and misrepresent the outcome of the election.
Next year in Saxony, Thuringen and Brandenburg there will be state parliament elections and this success points AfD in the right direction.
They say that a majority of voters have turned their back on democracy. Well, the election was democratic and voters used their democratic right to choose an AfD candidate. They have not turned their back on democracy. They have merely use their democratic rights to choose who they want to rule them.
AfD is advancing thanks to the failures of CDU/CSU and it must be remember that SPD is now ruling Germany as head of a coalition without having increased their electoral votes. What actually happened is the SPD that didn't increase their electoral votes and had to form a coalition with FDP and Grunne is only represented in 11 of 16 German states.
AfD was founded by academics and bankers in 2013 and barely ten years later has 20% support across Germany. Two important characteristics: intellect and economic power, a winning recipe that is being felt across Germany.
Friday, 21 January 2022
The Human Cost of Energy Crisis and the threat of war to make money
Friday, 9 April 2021
Ursula von der Leyen muss weg
She started by making a mess in Northern Ireland and in the Republic of Ireland by going against established EU policies and later backtracking when she was bombarded with criticisms, including criticisms expressed by the German mass media. Shge managed to unite Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland against her.
With regards to the fight against Covid-19, she hasn't been on top of her brief and has stood paralized while EU countries stopped acting as EU countries and went against each other. Austria is leading a group of six EU countries that want to have access to Russian vaccines and Germany has now joined them while France and others remain stuck with rising number of infections, hospitals that cannot cope with the number of cases and rising deaths leading to further quarentine measures.
The latest chapter was the embarrassment during a meeting in Turkey. She allowed herself to be sidelines and later complained saying that she had been sidelined. She doesn't have the guts to act on the spot. Is she really the President of the European Commission? If she is the President of the European Commission she should start acting as the President of the European Commission. If she doesn't have what it takes to be the boss, she should put herself aside and allow somebody else to be the boss.
The office of President of the European Commission is being downgraded, the EU project is being downgraded, and her former boss Angela Merkel is doing no better. Hesitation, gigantic errors of judgment, followed by meaningless apologies that give way to more hesitation, more gigantic errors of judgment, followed by more meaningless apologies. Angela Merkel no longer has what it takes to be leader and voters are turning against CDU/CSU across Germany, election after election. Time for change, but what will replace them? The very authority of the German Chancellor as now former party leader - she had to resign the leadership of CDU to remain in power until the next German Federal Election - is being challenged by members of her own party. She had to come out and threaten members of her own party that were found working with Alternative fur Deutschland in several regions.
To sum up, a mess in Germany and a mess in the European Union.
Sunday, 15 March 2020
Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole
Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole
Wednesday, 12 February 2020
Germany: Thuringen could set the tone of German politics
Germany: Thuringen could set the tone of German politics
Tuesday, 21 January 2020
Brexit: Then and Now
Brexit: Then and Now
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Merkel, Medvedev, Schroeder |
Wednesday, 8 January 2020
Ursula von der Leyen: Desperate trip to London.
Ursula von der Leyen: Desperate trip to London
Ursula von der Leyen (aka Angela Merkel) is very much against the wall. She barely managed to win the 2017 Federal Election. She desperately tried to form a coalition with FPD and Grünen. She failed. She ended up agreeing a coalition of last resort with SPD that didn't want a coalition with her after losing support.By the same time, CDU/CSU lost in Brandenburg, Bavaria, Saxony and Hesse and it was revealed that CDU representatives were working together with AfD at local level.
As if this wasn't enough, she had to resign the leadership of CDU to persuade her how political party to allow her to continue. Although on the surface this is about the relationship between EU and UK, it is in fact about the political survival of Angela Merkel now that SPO's newly elected leaders are asking for more concessions at a time when Germany is being forced to increase contributions to EU.
Germany desperately needs a deal to try and soften the blow of Brexit on the German economy. Ursula von der Leyen was in fact appointed by Angela Merkel as she was the only candidate on the ballot for President of the EU Commission in a battle of wills between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. The outome of the British General Election only serve to confirm German fears. It must be noted that after the German Federal Election, AfD is represented in the Bundestag and in every single of the 16 state parliaments in Germany. This is a crucial moment for Germany.
Ursula von der Leyen is playing for Angela Merkel using the EU as a shield to delay Brexit.