Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

National reactions to the Corona Virus crisis show the true state of the European Union. Border fences up. Freedom of Movement and the Schengen agreement go out through the window. National priorities kick in.

Germany is on a slippery slope downwards. The 2017 Federal Elections proved extremely difficult for Angela Merkel's CDU. After losing ground, SPD - their coalition partner - walked away not wanting to be in a coalition. In a desperate effort, Angela Merkel tried to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen, attempt that proved to be unsuccessful. Why would the Grünen want an agreement with a losing political party when their numbers are going up? They went up in the Federal Election and they went up in state elections after the Federal Election. In fact, Grünen and Alternative für Deutschland are the net winners. In Brandenburg, in Bavaria, in Saxony, in Hesse and in Thüringen, the trend is very similar. Moreover, in Thüringen, CDU joined forces with Alternative für Deutschland to get rid of the Die Linke head of government and soonafter that the heir apparent of Angela Merkel (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) resigned soonafter.

The context for the new European Union budget includes the fact that Germany and others will have to fill up the financial gap generated by the British withdrawal. Tens of billions of Pounds will have to be found and the remaining 27 countries don't seem to be able to reach an agreement. France is facing an internal struggle with internal political problemas of her own. Spain just had elections in which no political party got an overall majority and a compromise had to be found to appoint a new government. Italy is still on the grip of an ongoing political struggle and shaken by migration. We could go on analyzing what other EU countries are going through. On top of all the troubles comes the Corona Virus with a whole new set of challenges. European Union economies are bound to suffer a great deal and the response to the crisis has been fragmentary. Unless the European Union manages to find common ground, a response based on closure of national borders will do very little to reassure members of the public about the integrity of the European Union. 

Having said that, there are other concerns. If the European Union cannot show unity and integrity when faced with a health emergency, what will happen if the European Union is faced with external aggression. Will it withstand external aggression or will it collapse along the cracks of national borders?  Whoever has a potential interest in testing the European Union's capatity to react as a block is carefully tracking European Union countries responses? Will they come together as one or will they fail to achieve a common response?

Theresa May; The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History with dramatic repercussions for EU

Theresa May: The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History

As events come to a climax in the House of Commons with the final vote on the Brexit Deal broke out by Prime Minister Theresa May, we keep an eye on what is happening in Germany at the heart of CDU - one of the key components of the ruling German Coalition headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel gave up his place as Leader of CDU and was succeeded by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that is seen as a moderate Leader that came up a winner leaving behind Angela Merkel's archenemy Friedrich Merz.

But in spite of this, it could be the case that Angela Merkel will not last until the end her term as German Chancellor that is conditional to their junior coalition partner the SPD.

When in Germany there is the equivalent of a political tsunami, in France things are getting thicker by the minute. The Gilet Jaune Movement could lead to a state of emergency of even the use of the military against protesters. If this were to happen, it would prove that President Macron on top of being one of the least - if not the least - popular President in the history of France has literally not a leg to stand on.

As Germany and France keep pushing towards forcing EU member countries to accept immigrants or face a heave price by having to subsidise countries that do accept immigrants, the situation in the remaining EU countries is not straightforward. If the Theresa May's deal is rejected by the House of Commons it will also add to the political uncertainty in the European Union piling up financial tensions. Without British money (Britain is the second most important donor to finance the EU Budget), Germany and France would have go cap in hand to ask for more monies to finance the EU budget and pay for flood immigration.

Let us remember that the budget proposed for Italy by the Italian ruling coalition was rejected by the European Union and that Italy is not fit to provide any more funding for the EU. Other countries, including Greece but not exclusively Greece don't have the financial capacity to pay more for the EU Budget either.

In the last election, Angela Merkel that barely managed to gather the votes to form a government was forced to engage in a series of negotiations with FDP and Grünen. When efforts to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen failed, at the last minute she reached an agreement with SPD. What happened next tells the full story. In state elections in Bavaria, both the CSU (associate party of CDU) and SPD were routed in the elections. Then came CDU's turn in Hesse with comparable losses. The natural consequence was that Alternative für Deutschland has now representatives not just in the Bundestag but also in every single State Parliament in Germany. Will a fragile ruling coalition be able to extract more money from German taxpayers without causing another political rift?

At this point in time, all those who want Britain to remain a member of the European Union must ask themselves very serious questions. They need to be thinking very carefully about the kind of the European Union that is coming. Zac Goldsmith - Jewish Conservative MP - spoke very clearly about the political threats in an European Union that is in meltdown.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. For all the talk about a transition period that could go as far as 2020 in some cases or even 2022, or even become an "indefinite transition period", it is impossible to predict the kind of European Union that will be around during such transition period.

For Theresa May the date is December 11th 2019, according to the latest bit of news. But there are rumours about the vote in the House of Commons being postponed to avert a disastrous defeat that could put an end to Theresa May's Premiership leading to massive political conflicts. What will actually happen on December 11th 2019 and soon after December 11th 2019 is everybody's guess but what we have seen and heard is not reassuring.

Merkel Out / Merz In? CDU marching towards the Right?

Angela Merkel / Friedrich Merz

CDU marching towards the Right or the Far Right?

The repercussions of what happened during the last Federal Elections and of two consecutive state elections - Bavaria and Hesse - are spreading.  Angela Merkel's announced departure both as party leader and as Chancellor (she will be withdrawing from public office and not standing in elections) come together with the debate of who is going to succeed her firstly as party leader and later on as candidate to become German Chancellor. Let's look at positions maintained by one of the most probable contenders for leadership of CDU:

This shows why Friedrich Merz might be a very attractive choice. CSU tried somehow to take on board part of Alternative für Deutschland's agenda in a desperate effort to avoid defeat but was defeated anyway. It was so obvious that it looked like a cynical attempt. Now, the change would be taking place not in Bavarian CSU but in CDU. If CDU adopt similar o identical policies to those proposed by Alternative für Deutschland, voters might decide to vote for the real thing instead of voting for a copy of the real thing that opened the floodgates and created the problems that led to consecutive electoral defeats.

The question is: once the successor is chosen, will whoever is chosen be an ally or a rival of Angela Merkel? How safe her position will be after December 2018? Will she be in power until March 2019? What about her political backing in terms of negotiations? Will her successor be inclined to alliances that go against party policies? Too many coalitions and too much uncertainty at a time when unity and clarity are key in any decision making process.

Angela Merkel is promoting growth of Far Right

One of Angela Merkel's Greatest Achievements is the Rise of the Far Right

In the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, no one has done more than Angela Merkel to promote the Rise of the Far Right. Her anti-German policies have included flooding Germany with foreigners from outside the European Union. We are not talking about perfectly legal political parties like Alternative für Deutschland and Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschland that exist within a democratic framework and fight elections but are constantly demonised by the Political Establishment and the Mass Media. We are talking about Movements that say that the Federal Republic of Germany should not exist and that the rules of the German Empire and of the Third Reich are the only ones that they recognise.

Deutsche Welle reports that Reichbürger has now 19,000 members and that some of them are armed. Well, the more the German State persecutes legal political parties in Germany the more people will join movements like Reichbürger and the greater the risks of a meltdown in Germany.

Whatever happens in Hesse today, the fact remains that with the exception of the Grünen, all so called mainstream political parties are losing support. Political Correctness is eroding German Democracy.

Commentators desperately try to draw a link between totally different issues. Muslims are the greatest threat for Jews in Europe. Not long ago a leading Jewish representative in Germany advised Jews not to wear any kind of items that could make them easily identifiable as Jews on German streets. What happened in Pittsburgh, USA, is a completely different story. The attacker that killed 11 people at a Synagogue hates President Trump and engaged in the attack because in his own words President Trump is too close to the Jewish Community. It was President Donald Trump than moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Many Presidents before him had spoken about it - including President Obama - but never had to courage to do so.

People like George Soros, a Jew born in Hungary, is promoting the Rise of the Far Right by attempting to destroy European Identities. Strong National Identities are the last line of defence against Extremists. Strong, stable successful economies and stable political systems are the antidote. What is George Soros doing? Well, those who follow George Soros' ideas are eroding National Identity, creating instability that sooner than later will destroy financial and political instability. In the chaos, Extremists will prosper.