Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

National reactions to the Corona Virus crisis show the true state of the European Union. Border fences up. Freedom of Movement and the Schengen agreement go out through the window. National priorities kick in.

Germany is on a slippery slope downwards. The 2017 Federal Elections proved extremely difficult for Angela Merkel's CDU. After losing ground, SPD - their coalition partner - walked away not wanting to be in a coalition. In a desperate effort, Angela Merkel tried to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen, attempt that proved to be unsuccessful. Why would the Grünen want an agreement with a losing political party when their numbers are going up? They went up in the Federal Election and they went up in state elections after the Federal Election. In fact, Grünen and Alternative für Deutschland are the net winners. In Brandenburg, in Bavaria, in Saxony, in Hesse and in Thüringen, the trend is very similar. Moreover, in Thüringen, CDU joined forces with Alternative für Deutschland to get rid of the Die Linke head of government and soonafter that the heir apparent of Angela Merkel (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) resigned soonafter.

The context for the new European Union budget includes the fact that Germany and others will have to fill up the financial gap generated by the British withdrawal. Tens of billions of Pounds will have to be found and the remaining 27 countries don't seem to be able to reach an agreement. France is facing an internal struggle with internal political problemas of her own. Spain just had elections in which no political party got an overall majority and a compromise had to be found to appoint a new government. Italy is still on the grip of an ongoing political struggle and shaken by migration. We could go on analyzing what other EU countries are going through. On top of all the troubles comes the Corona Virus with a whole new set of challenges. European Union economies are bound to suffer a great deal and the response to the crisis has been fragmentary. Unless the European Union manages to find common ground, a response based on closure of national borders will do very little to reassure members of the public about the integrity of the European Union. 

Having said that, there are other concerns. If the European Union cannot show unity and integrity when faced with a health emergency, what will happen if the European Union is faced with external aggression. Will it withstand external aggression or will it collapse along the cracks of national borders?  Whoever has a potential interest in testing the European Union's capatity to react as a block is carefully tracking European Union countries responses? Will they come together as one or will they fail to achieve a common response?

Theresa May; The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History with dramatic repercussions for EU

Theresa May: The Plot thickens about what will be the outcome of one of the worst political crisis in British History

As events come to a climax in the House of Commons with the final vote on the Brexit Deal broke out by Prime Minister Theresa May, we keep an eye on what is happening in Germany at the heart of CDU - one of the key components of the ruling German Coalition headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel gave up his place as Leader of CDU and was succeeded by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that is seen as a moderate Leader that came up a winner leaving behind Angela Merkel's archenemy Friedrich Merz.

But in spite of this, it could be the case that Angela Merkel will not last until the end her term as German Chancellor that is conditional to their junior coalition partner the SPD.

When in Germany there is the equivalent of a political tsunami, in France things are getting thicker by the minute. The Gilet Jaune Movement could lead to a state of emergency of even the use of the military against protesters. If this were to happen, it would prove that President Macron on top of being one of the least - if not the least - popular President in the history of France has literally not a leg to stand on.

As Germany and France keep pushing towards forcing EU member countries to accept immigrants or face a heave price by having to subsidise countries that do accept immigrants, the situation in the remaining EU countries is not straightforward. If the Theresa May's deal is rejected by the House of Commons it will also add to the political uncertainty in the European Union piling up financial tensions. Without British money (Britain is the second most important donor to finance the EU Budget), Germany and France would have go cap in hand to ask for more monies to finance the EU budget and pay for flood immigration.

Let us remember that the budget proposed for Italy by the Italian ruling coalition was rejected by the European Union and that Italy is not fit to provide any more funding for the EU. Other countries, including Greece but not exclusively Greece don't have the financial capacity to pay more for the EU Budget either.

In the last election, Angela Merkel that barely managed to gather the votes to form a government was forced to engage in a series of negotiations with FDP and Grünen. When efforts to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen failed, at the last minute she reached an agreement with SPD. What happened next tells the full story. In state elections in Bavaria, both the CSU (associate party of CDU) and SPD were routed in the elections. Then came CDU's turn in Hesse with comparable losses. The natural consequence was that Alternative für Deutschland has now representatives not just in the Bundestag but also in every single State Parliament in Germany. Will a fragile ruling coalition be able to extract more money from German taxpayers without causing another political rift?

At this point in time, all those who want Britain to remain a member of the European Union must ask themselves very serious questions. They need to be thinking very carefully about the kind of the European Union that is coming. Zac Goldsmith - Jewish Conservative MP - spoke very clearly about the political threats in an European Union that is in meltdown.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. For all the talk about a transition period that could go as far as 2020 in some cases or even 2022, or even become an "indefinite transition period", it is impossible to predict the kind of European Union that will be around during such transition period.

For Theresa May the date is December 11th 2019, according to the latest bit of news. But there are rumours about the vote in the House of Commons being postponed to avert a disastrous defeat that could put an end to Theresa May's Premiership leading to massive political conflicts. What will actually happen on December 11th 2019 and soon after December 11th 2019 is everybody's guess but what we have seen and heard is not reassuring.

Merkel Out / Merz In? CDU marching towards the Right?

Angela Merkel / Friedrich Merz

CDU marching towards the Right or the Far Right?

The repercussions of what happened during the last Federal Elections and of two consecutive state elections - Bavaria and Hesse - are spreading.  Angela Merkel's announced departure both as party leader and as Chancellor (she will be withdrawing from public office and not standing in elections) come together with the debate of who is going to succeed her firstly as party leader and later on as candidate to become German Chancellor. Let's look at positions maintained by one of the most probable contenders for leadership of CDU:

This shows why Friedrich Merz might be a very attractive choice. CSU tried somehow to take on board part of Alternative für Deutschland's agenda in a desperate effort to avoid defeat but was defeated anyway. It was so obvious that it looked like a cynical attempt. Now, the change would be taking place not in Bavarian CSU but in CDU. If CDU adopt similar o identical policies to those proposed by Alternative für Deutschland, voters might decide to vote for the real thing instead of voting for a copy of the real thing that opened the floodgates and created the problems that led to consecutive electoral defeats.

The question is: once the successor is chosen, will whoever is chosen be an ally or a rival of Angela Merkel? How safe her position will be after December 2018? Will she be in power until March 2019? What about her political backing in terms of negotiations? Will her successor be inclined to alliances that go against party policies? Too many coalitions and too much uncertainty at a time when unity and clarity are key in any decision making process.

Angela Merkel's Dilemma: If there is no Brexit deal, German car exports in danger?

A No Deal in Brexit negotiations could prove fatal for Angela Merkel as German Chancellor and Leader of CDU, after the battering suffered by CSU in Bavaria. Why? German Car Exports are vital for Germany's economy. CDU's leadership election by the end of this year will be the next thing to follow to know if Angela Merkel would still be German Chancellor by March 2019 when UK is due to leave the European Union. With the issue of Immigration as hot potato that is seriously damaging relations between EU countries, adding financial uncertainty at a time when German taxpayers will have to be asked to pay more to replace the monies provided by the United Kingdom to the EU is not the best move. Having said that, what would then be Germany's choices?

Considerations about the political future of Angela Merkel and of the ruling coalition are on the horizon. After performing very badly in a Federal Election, Angela Merkel firstly tried to form a coalition with FDP and Grünen. When this failed to produce a viable coalition, Angela Merkel reached out to try and persuade SPD to come on board. Looking at results in Bavaria, both CSU and SPD lost badly and Grünen was one of the winners.

Now, this is the political map. CDU is in coalition with CSU and SPD (both losers in Bavaria's election) and CSU could be forced to form a coalition with Grünen in Bavaria. What kind of policies can come out of such political mix?

More than ever before, Angela Merkel needs a deal to protect the German Car Industry to keep the German economy on track to be able to increase its financial support for the European Union. Factor 1: Germany needs whatever financial contribution it can get from a successful deal with the United Kingdom. Factor 2: Germany needs to make sure that its German Car Exports are not dramatically affected. There are reports indicating that Germany could lose up to 57% of its Car Exports.

Whatever happens elsewhere in the European Union, Germany is the country to look at. Germany was a key country to form the Common Market, later called European Community and now called European Union. If Germany falters, the entire project would be in danger.

There are many pieces of the EU puzzle. France is another key piece and President Macron is nowadays of the most unpopular Presidents in the history of France. His approval levels have fallen dramatically. Italy is at odds with EU. On the one hand, Italy desperately needs to spend to maintain some kind of economic stability and avoid a political meltdown but its budget needs to be approved by an EU that doesn't like big deficits. No one would have enough resources to salvage both the French economy and the Italian economy while other minor players like Greece are themselves in dire straights.

The EU desperately needs trade to stay afloat. Much of the "intransigent approach of the European Union" is based not on real strength but on fear. The European Union is big but very slow. There are far too many differences and inconsistencies between European Union countries.

A good Brexit Deal benefits all parties. A No Deal could simply accelerate the process of disintegration of the European Union.   

Brexit and Merkel: British journalists' myopia

 

Brexit and Merkel: British journalists' myopia

When you witness the coverage of negotiations about Brexit, much of the British mass media suffers from political myopia. They try to emphasize how much trouble the British Prime Minister Theresa May is in but they fail to understand the amount of trouble those seen as the stronger party - EU - are facing. In spite of the said myopia, I heard an enlightening question: how much coverage and interest there is in other parts of the EU about Brexit? The answer: not much. In fact, in the rest of the EU the political world is much more interested in a rift caused by differences between EU countries and in particular about the issue of immigration. Brexit is very low in the EU list of priorities given the enormous problems that EU is facing in other areas.

One of the main players - if not the main player - German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces the prospect of not being German Chancellor for much long. She is heading a last minute Coalition of Despair. If any of her partners - either CSU or SPD - or both falter, her government would fall. She could be out before March 2019. In a few days time there will be State Elections in Bavaria - CSU territory. In an effort to keep AfD at bay, the CSU has been increasingly critical of Angela Merkel. Whether this is an electoral strategy to fool German voters or genuine CSU concerns, CSU popularity ratings have been falling.

Angela Merkel: CDU and CSU at war on immigration

Not if but when

Should there be a Federal Election in Germany, CDU/CSU would get less than 30 per cent of the vote. CDU and CSU are at war. The issue: Immigration. CDU is the Titanic and CSU that still holds 40% of the vote in Bavaria doesn't want to sink together with CDU. 

In October 2018, there will be elections in Bavaria and Alternative für Deutschland would make important gains. CSU insists that Germany should turn back asylum-seekers registered in other EU countries at its national borders. Merkel says this violates the EU's principle of freedom of movement and is seeking European-wide and multi-lateral solutions, solutions opposed by Austria, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Italy, among others, who profoundly dislike Angela Merkel's intentions of flooding the EU with migrants.

CSU that threatened to impose border checks and the clock is ticking away. Would Angela Merkel be able to survive until the end of 2018. If she goes, there will be two political parties to watch: CSU and Alternative für Deutschland. If Angela Merkel goes, there will be a new Germany and EU will no longer be the same or will not even be anymore.

Bavaria is Germany's economic powerhouse. With Germany's power-base increasingly angry because of the immigration mess, it is not inconceivable that they will support stricter immigration policies that will put Germany on a collision course with Angela Merkel's policies.

A trade war with USA doesn't help Angela Merkel. In tit for tat, Germany will be the loser. Steel, aluminium and car manufacturing are the sectors to be most affected and this means job losses in German manufacturing. Add this to the fact that Germany will be forced to pay a lot more to balance the books of the European Union after Britain exist and this can only mean higher taxation to be paid for mostly by German industrialists and manufacturers.

Germany is a key country in Europe and Germany will follow the trend towards immigration controls and deportations. It is not a matter of if but a matter of when.