Alexander Gauland: one plus one equal two

 

Alexander Gauland: one plus one equals two

One of the co-founders of Alternative für Deutschland knows full well that so called maintream political parties have miserably failed to provide answers for very difficult problems. He knows that they keep proposing failed recipes that keep making matters a lot worse because they are guided by ideological nonsense that goes against reason.

Because so called mainstream political parties control mass media they are still getting away with murder and the outcome of the 2025 Federal Elections in Germany could still produce the same nonsense that will compromise Germany's very existence.

Since the end of World War Two the idea of the victors was to prevent a German true revival and have done so brilliantly maintaining a massive military occupation of German land and dictating to the German peoples foreign policies that go against Germany's genuine interests. So called mainstream political parties have been complicit in promiting anti-German policies.

Today, present circumstances are a calculated risk that could lead Germany to be involved in a catastrophic war against her will. German voters will have to choose between political parties that will take such risk and a political party that openly and strongly speaks against any Germany involvement in any kind of war.

German Coalition: Vote of Confidence due to take place in January will actually take place on December 16th 2024

 

The days of Olaf Scholz as German Chancellor could be numbered. 

The vote originally planned for January 2025 is due to take place on December 16th, 2024 and the Federal Election will actually take place in February.

This can change quite a lot in German politics at a time when urgent measures are needed to sort out German economics.

Germany was remarklably absent from a top meeting about the Environment. The German government has more pressing concerns when the Green Party barely has a calculated 10 per cent support across Germany and in three state elections only managed to get 7 representatives elected out of 120 in Saxony and none in Thuringen and none in Brandenburg.

As part of a deal to get a coalition together, hawkish Annalena Baerbock got chosen as Minister for Foreign Affairs. The fact that she could be on her way out within weeks would be a step forward towards peace in Europe.But the outcome of the Federal Election will tell the story and possibly write a new script.

The outsted Finance Minister Christian Lindner wanted to stop sending money to Ukraine by sending Taurus missiles instead. To have a member of FDP, a Junior member of the coalition, dictating foreign policy would have been a serious error of judgment. Olaf Scholz was asking to change rules to allow more borrowing. Christian Lindner refused to change the rules abour borrowing and decided to blackmail the German Chancellor to force him to adopt an idea he is very much against because of the dangerous implications of having Germany as the initiator of a European-wide conflict. FDP has no foot to stand on.

But money is in short supply and recent announcements about major German industrial players talking about factory closures and lays offs does not help. Energy and migration are bound to become even more important subjects. Increasing the Defense Budget? Where are the monies going to come from? NATO quotas could simply be unreachable. Listening to individuals like Ursula von der Layen or Emmanuel Macron might make somebody think that there are resources aplenty. Well, no. France is running huge deficits and Germany faces borrowing limitations. Any monies sent Eastwards come from borrowing. Will Germany and France - like Britain - go for tax rises? What effect would tax rises produce when unemployment is rising? What political effects will rising unemployment produce?

 

A New Political Era for Europe: Germany falters

The announcement that the German coalition headed by SPD has collapsed leaves in power a government headed by a political party that in three recent state elections failed dramatically to capture the public imagination. In three consecutive elections, Grüne barely managed to get 7 representatives out of 88, 119 and 88. This is how bad things are and they are bound to get worse. Support for the war in Ukraine has banrupted Germany and attempts to increase borrowing led to a political showdown leading to the end of coalition that was unsustainable from the very begining.

FDP and Grüne are exact opposites in various ways and such agreement was bound to end in tears. Can a Federal Election clear the air? Such election would take place in March 2025 and not in September 2025. Germany has been leading and financing the European Union. Changes in German politics are bound to have a significant effect in terms of German leadership and of the survival of the European Union. Talks about increasing defence expenditure are bound to go anywhere as Germany tries to sanitanize its own finances. Job losses already announced are not going to make the present coalition popular amongst voters.

Who could be the real winners in March 2024? There could be three potential winners: CDU, a new political party that had success in recent state elections and Alternative für Deutschland. The one party that has a real project for Germany is Alternative für Deutschland, a project that takes care of Germany´s energy needs and of migration - a subject that is a major concern in many European countries, including Germany. 

As economic figures show decline, EU Panic over immigration

 

One by one, EU countries are now panicking over immigration. The announcement of massive job losses in Germany, accompanied by news about border controls that go against the spirit of the Schengen Agreement don't go easy down the throats of German voters that are now turning to support AfD and/or walking away from the ruling coalition SDP/Grüne/FDP and this poses many questions about the coming Federal Election, after three state elections - Germany has 16 Federal States - in which vote for Alternative für Deutschland was 29% in the worst of cases and peaked at more than 33%. The use of the word ´peak´ is relative as the economic and financial situation hangs in the balance and as months go by the state of the German economy could be even worse thus favouring the vote for Alternative für Deutschland and for another 'leftwing Party' that has pushed Die Linke to the side and is making inroads in German Politics. Two options - one Right and one Left - and both anti-immigration have pushed the ruling coalition to curb migration into Germany.

As this happens, in France, Michel Barnier - a Prime Minister of necessity - after President Macron lost both the European Parliament Elections and the French Assembly Elections - is also inclined to talk against migration and the word 'Deportation' is going around. Italy has also spoken for closing borders and now there is the mention that EU makers and breakers want to have a dialogue to coordinate with Britain the transit of migrants. Keir Starmer stated today 'that being worried about migration is not Far Right', a clear change after Keir Starmer's trip to Italy when he met Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.

They also seem to remember Angela Merkel and blame for her open invitation to migrants to come to Germany. That was German Chancellor Angela Merkel then also Leader of the CDU. It must also be remember that soonafter she stated 'Multikulti ist tot', publicly declared that multiculturalism had completely failed in Germany.

Alternative for Germany - Is there an Alternative for Germany?

 

Is there an Alternative for Germany?

When the ruling SPD barely gets about 5% and his partners in the ruling coalition - Greens and FDP - get even less in state elections in Germany, something surely must change. Next stop? Brandenburg. If a disaster of the scale of what happened in Thuringen and Saxony also happens in Brandenburg then the ruling coalition must surely question its own future.

SPD and CDU quickly reacted proposing a ban on migration from two countries after lamentable events, but this did not seem to be enough to persuade voters to support the ruling coalition. In Thuringen, AfD got more votes than CDU and in Saxony the difference in favour of CDU was minimal compared to the level of support for AfD.

With Federal Elections around the corner, surely this is something to very much worry about. Geopolitical issues are dividing Germany, but internal issues seem to be equally divisive.

Immigration is being rejected by both sides of the political spectrum. A rising movement of the left is also anti-immigration.

The question is: have voters from both left and right of the political spectrum had enough of open borders? Let's remember that the official stance has been to punish Hungary for its reluctance to accept open borders. This beggars the question: are so called mainstream political parties out of tune? 

If they try to swim against the tide they will continue loosing support. SPD has even tried to ban Alternative für Deutchland. What will the argument in favour of banning Alternative für Deutschland? They got more than 30% of support and we got less than 6% and therefore we need to ban them because they are winning against us?

The Greens are the loudest party in favour of war in Europe. Do the Greens understand that their policies and stances are not supported by a vast number of German voters who have had enough of warmongers?

 

Why mainstream political parties are losing ground and fringe parties have become mainstream?

 

Just a decade ago, CDU/CSU used to call the shot in German politics and European politics. In fact, the German Chancellor and the French President used to have the final word in quite a few of the most important decisions made by the European Union.

But it must be said that CDU/CSU had to cohabitate with SPD in a marriage of convenience and this lasted until CDU/CSU fell catastrophically opening the way for the unthinkable: a coalition between German Conservatives FPD, SPD Social Democrats and Grüne Socialists.

The EU Parliament Elections have shown a rebirth of CDU and allowed AfD to surpass SPD while FPD and Grüne have fallen.

The call is very straightforward: German peoples do matter and must be the main priority for Germany. Decades of open doors and policies that mainly benefit non Germans have been rejected by German voters that face a very uncertain future as German economics has been seriously undermined both by environmental policies and an energy crisis that has increased energy costs and cut energy supplies.

Pushing forward environmental policies at the expense of the German economy is not good policy. The first two gigantic mistakes were made by Angela Merkel when she decided to get rid of nuclear power and open the floodgates for migration. Her almost unilateral decisions created animosity in Eastern Europe as most people coming to Germany had to go through Eastern European countries to reach Germany. Then, she made the equally astonishing statement ´Multikulti ist tot´ (Multikulturalism is dead). We are not in the mind of Angela Merkel, but we can guess that since then she has regretted getting rid of Nuclear Power and of having open the floodgates for migration.

By the end of her reign as German Chancellor, her own political party was not ready to give her a blank cheque. In order to remain as German Chancellor she was forced to resign as Leader of the CDU.

In France, Emmanuel Macron saw that he could not go on as usual when his official candidate for Prime Mnister got barely 15% in the European Parliament Elections. The decision to call for a Parliamentary Election was not easy but it had to be taken. Left, Right and Centre rejected his policies. Now, on June 30th and on July 1st, he faces the challenge and the possibility of having a Rassemblement National Prime Minister and a hostile National Assembly till the end of his term as French President. Emmanuel Macron will still have veto power, but from a political point of view he might have to deal with policies that go very much against his own policies. So both in the French Assembly and in the European Parliament decisions would be in the hands of Rassemblement National.

 

European Elections: Instead of thinking about the reasons why, politicians plan to regroup to continue ignoring the reasons why people are voting what they are voting for

 

Instead of listening to voters, political parties plan to gang up to continue ignoring the reasons people voted what they voted for.

What so called maintream political parties lack is the intelligence to listen to people and to do what people want them to do.

Unbridled migration is increasingly opposed and this is why more and more people are voting againt mainstream political parties that promote unbridled migration. So what mainstream political parties plan to do? To continue promoting unbridled migration.

If you are the manager of a company that produces products that nobody wants, you won't have a brilliant future. Mainstream political parties don't seem to get the message. People don't want to spend more money that they don't even have to buy fancy alternatives that they don't need. Greens across Europe are discovering that scaremongering no longer works when you have got to pay higher bills. In Germany, SPD down, Grüne down and FDP down because of its association with SPD and Grüne in a desperate coalition. In fact, support for SPD - the ruling party collapsed to less than 14 per cent and is now below AfD that got 16 per cent and rising. How democratic it is for such coalition to continue ruling Germany?

Warmongering Grüne are being rejected by German voters. Germany needs energy to continue as the manufacturing and exporting leader in Europe. Firstly, Germany was let down by Angela Merkel that got rid of nuclear power making Germany practically entirely dependent on fossil fuels - much of which had to be imported from abroad. When due to geopolitical decisions, imports were reduced, Germany ended up depending more and more on coal. Because of their geopolitical stances, Grüne seems to support the use of fossil fuels. This contradiction left them exposed and people are walking away from them. 

Question marks and more question marks = Elections that can change the geopolitical map

 

Elections that can change the geopolitical map are taking place throughout 2024. We start with France in a few days time when European Parliament Elections could signal what will the potential outcome of the French General Election be.

In the United Kingdom, many assume that Keir Starmer will be the next British Prime Minister. Is this set in stone?

And in the USA, please have a look at those running as Vice-Presidential Candidates. We should not underestimate the possibility of Vice-Presidential Candidates becoming key figures during the next mandate starting in 2024. Will the outcome of these elections be clear enough to avoid the precedent of litigation when elections in certain states were strongly contested?

There are important developments happening not only in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. In October 2025, Federal Elections in Germany. In the Federal Election of 2021, the SPD - head of the ruling coalition with FDP and Grüne - 23.4% of the vote. It now has an expectation of vote of 15%. FDP had 11.4% and it now has 5%, while Grüne had 14.7% and it now has 12%. CDU had 24.2 % and it now has 30%. In any case, results point towards yet another coalition.

The impact of what is happening in Germany has had obvious consequences - all members of the present coalition have seen their support going down. In 2021, 23.4 plus 11.4 plus 14.7 = 49.5 

Today, support for the coalition is 15 plus 5 plus 12 = 32

Alternative für Deutschland has the same level of support that Grüne and FDP have put together. But other surveys indicate that SPD has 15% and AfD has 17%. This means that Alternative für Deutschland has more support than the political party that is now ruling Germany. Should anything major happen, how will any major event - war included - affect the outcome of German elections?

In a few months time, the warmongers of today will be history

Whether it is USA, Britain, Germany, France, et cetera, one thing is certain: key warmongers of today will not be around for long.

How much time has Biden left? How much time has Rishi Sunak left? How much time Scholz and Macron have left?

Look at America. What is happening in Latin America? There was a time when in Uruguay the Colorado Party has an almost completely monopoly of power. Then came the Partido National, the other Conservative Party of Uruguay. What happened next? The Frente Amplio (Broad Front) took the reins of power and the conservative parties of Uruguay could only come back as a coalition. 

What is happening in Argentina, in Chile, in Brazil, even in Bolivia? The old certainties have disappeared. The Partido Justicialista arrived completely divided in the October round of elections to select the new Argentinian Parliament - with barely 30 something of support compared to a completely political grouping that also got 30 something. Now, we wait for the second round of elections to see who is elected President of Argentina and on what basis. If Milei manages to attract the attention of younger generations chances are that he could be the winner replacing both Justicialistas and Radicales. But as political commentators remarked during the first round of elections, the issue is fundamentally not who is in charge but what can whoever is in charge do to revert a 134% rate of inflation.

Strategies to scare people and deter them from supporting alternative political forces are failing to do the job. People don't want continuity. They want positive changes. They are tired of a bit of the same. In Germany of all places the idea of banning a political force that already represents more than twenty per cent of the electors is a sign of desperation. Olaf Scholz knows that he is walking on a high rope with failing political partners. The SPD tried to distance itself from CDU/CSU as coalition member precisely because it was losing support. FPD is losing support and SPD itself is losing support. So how will the German coalition last? In spite of what politicians and mass media say, how feasible is a coalition of Alternative für Deutschland and other conservative groups. In the days of Angela Merkel, local CDU representatives were comfortable enough to work together with Alternative für Deutschland.

France is a bit of a puzzle. Macron is unpopular, but fears about the rise of Rassemblement National motivated some people to support what they did not like. Marine Le Pen did the right thing by choosing to have different young leaders to attract younger generations of voters.

Both in Germany and in France, political parties are exploiting what is happening in Palestine. Never mind what is happening in Palestine if what happens in Palestine helps them promote a certain narrative seeking to advance Nationalism in Germany and in France. Are you really and truly German? Are you really and truly French? Politics moves towards identity politics. You belong or you don't belong. You are part of the national culture or you are not part of the national culture. Multiculturalism is seen as a failure and Identity politics is no friend of Multiculturalism.

In Britain, with differences in political language approach, the message is clear: 'Multiculturalism is becoming a National Security issue' and the Home Secretary - herself a member of an ethnic minority - is investing a lot of political capital going against Multiculturalism. She does not explicitily say it, but the nature of what she is saying is obviously going against Multiculturalism. Other political operators are less shy and strictly say 'that is not British, they are not British'. She is diving the country and Mosques are becoming a target again. Not a target for people like Paul Golding that has dedicated his political career to attack Mulisms. They are becoming a target for the privileged political classes, because the privileged classes are closer to Jewish interests than they are to Muslim interests.

For one reason or another, Identity Politics is being promoted by people who used to say that they stood against Identity Politics. In a reversal of roles, Identity Politics is not been promoted by now defunct political forces like the BNP, the National Front or Britain First. Identity Politics is coming from the very top of British politics. Listen to commentators like Nigel Farage. What is he constantly talking about?

Whatever happens today you must remember that the warmongers of today will shortly be history. Even hawkish scarecrow Mr John Bolton might not be around too long. He criticizes Joe Biden saying that Jo Biden is not aggressive enough. Well, John Bolton was fired by President Trump because John Bolton wanted President Trump to be more aggressive. In retirement, a few cups of lime tea will do John Bolton a lot of good.

 

 

CDU demise followed by rise of AfD

 In what has been qualified as a watershed moment in German politics, what could have been easily predicted has happened. AfD won a local election with 52.8% of the vote. The town of Sonneberg, in Thuringen, has elected Robert Sesselman as District Administrator. As it is customary, those who oppose anything truly German will use the usual labels to downgrade, insult and misrepresent the outcome of the election.

Next year in Saxony, Thuringen and Brandenburg there will be state parliament elections and this success points AfD in the right direction. 

They say that a majority of voters have turned their back on democracy. Well, the election was democratic and voters used their democratic right to choose an AfD candidate. They have not turned their back on democracy. They have merely use their democratic rights to choose who they want to rule them.

AfD is advancing thanks to the failures of CDU/CSU and it must be remember that SPD is now ruling Germany as head of a coalition without having increased their electoral votes. What actually happened is the SPD that didn't increase their electoral votes and had to form a coalition with FDP and Grunne is only represented in 11 of 16 German states.

AfD was founded by academics and bankers in 2013 and barely ten years later has 20% support across Germany. Two important characteristics: intellect and economic power, a winning recipe that is being felt across Germany.

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

Corona Virus is a test for the European Union as a whole

National reactions to the Corona Virus crisis show the true state of the European Union. Border fences up. Freedom of Movement and the Schengen agreement go out through the window. National priorities kick in.

Germany is on a slippery slope downwards. The 2017 Federal Elections proved extremely difficult for Angela Merkel's CDU. After losing ground, SPD - their coalition partner - walked away not wanting to be in a coalition. In a desperate effort, Angela Merkel tried to reach an agreement with FDP and Grünen, attempt that proved to be unsuccessful. Why would the Grünen want an agreement with a losing political party when their numbers are going up? They went up in the Federal Election and they went up in state elections after the Federal Election. In fact, Grünen and Alternative für Deutschland are the net winners. In Brandenburg, in Bavaria, in Saxony, in Hesse and in Thüringen, the trend is very similar. Moreover, in Thüringen, CDU joined forces with Alternative für Deutschland to get rid of the Die Linke head of government and soonafter that the heir apparent of Angela Merkel (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) resigned soonafter.

The context for the new European Union budget includes the fact that Germany and others will have to fill up the financial gap generated by the British withdrawal. Tens of billions of Pounds will have to be found and the remaining 27 countries don't seem to be able to reach an agreement. France is facing an internal struggle with internal political problemas of her own. Spain just had elections in which no political party got an overall majority and a compromise had to be found to appoint a new government. Italy is still on the grip of an ongoing political struggle and shaken by migration. We could go on analyzing what other EU countries are going through. On top of all the troubles comes the Corona Virus with a whole new set of challenges. European Union economies are bound to suffer a great deal and the response to the crisis has been fragmentary. Unless the European Union manages to find common ground, a response based on closure of national borders will do very little to reassure members of the public about the integrity of the European Union. 

Having said that, there are other concerns. If the European Union cannot show unity and integrity when faced with a health emergency, what will happen if the European Union is faced with external aggression. Will it withstand external aggression or will it collapse along the cracks of national borders?  Whoever has a potential interest in testing the European Union's capatity to react as a block is carefully tracking European Union countries responses? Will they come together as one or will they fail to achieve a common response?

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

The European Union is being playing with the situation in Northern Ireland as a way for force the United Kingdom into submission but this has backfired as UK moves towards Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

Yesterday in the House of Commons it became explicitly clear that the Good Friday Agreement is no more because Sinn Fein violated the terms of the agreement by walking away from the Northern Ireland Assembly and staying away from it for more than 500 days. This is one less thing to worry about and if Sinn Fein doesn't return there will be Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

The other issue the EU has being playing with is what is known as 'Hard Border' between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is not a problem for UK. If the EU and/or the Republic of Ireland want to pay for it they are free to do so.

Speculation about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister has also being used to blackmail the UK government but Jeremy Corbyn could only get in if there is a General Election and in principle there is not going to be a General Election until 2022. Britain is a Parliamentary Democracy and Prime Ministers can come and go without the need of having a General Election.

Whatever happens in EU, everything revolves around Berlin. Angela Merkel has just had a scare when tensions led to a potential break up between CDU and CSU. In Bavaria, Alternative für Deutschland is advancing as CSU is retreating. Angela Merkel struggled to form a coalition just a few months ago when she failed to form such a coalition with FDP and Grünen and after great effort she managed to get a deal with SDP. But without CSU, a General Election would be practically a given with no hope of success.

One out of six German cars is exported to UK and tensions with US in what is seen as a trade war could make it very difficult for Germany to be able to export cars to US. Angela Merkel knows that she is walking on thin ice and this is why the latest developments in the United Kingdom regarding an agreement within the Conservative Party Cabinet didn't elicit any comments. EU heads chose to remain silent for fear of tilting the situation towards a No Deal that could badly damage German industries.

As time goes by, with the resignation of more members of the British Cabinet, Prime Minister Theresa's May situation becomes ever more precarious and a No Deal would be the end result. The EU is now seeing that trying to blackmail the UK government was a very serious mistake.

We cannot possibly foresee the outcome but it has been said that some of the conditions agreed at Checkers would make it impossible to have a Free Trade Deal with the US. If this is the case, the proposals would already be dead.

Snap Election in Germany?

German coalition talks in tatters as FDP walked away from negotiations

Angela Merkel who barely got 26% of the vote in the recent German elections was desperately trying to form a coalition with FDP and the Greens. Immigration and Energy Policies were her undoing. With the Social Democracts in no mood to be members of any coalition, Germany would be heading for yet another Federal Election.

Immigration is a contentious issue in Germany linked to National Security and Public Security and Angela Merkel has made a gigantic mess that led to Alternative für Deutschland entering the Bundestag with 90 seats.

But in reality, the Greens are the ones to blame by calling for a reduction in coal-generated power that could lead to job losses in the energy and manufacturing sector and by campaigning to keep the immigration floodgates open.

Will I receive another letter from Peter Tauber? Most probably not. The German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier could soon have to dissolve the current parliament to have new elections.

During the coalition talks the CDU and the CSU talked about immigration restrictions. I hope Austria, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic take note of this and especially when EU under Angela Merkel's command took them to court trying to force them to accept more immigrants.