Devolution: has it worked?

In 1997, Tony Blair and the New Labour Administration came up with Devolution. The solution to all problems ended in nightmare. The Welsh Assembly controlled by Labour has made a mess of things. The Scottish Parliament has been the source of a never ending series of scandals and bad governance. 

Standards in terms health and education have fallen steadily and division within the ruling SNP have led to the SNP losing support and even to SNP MPs tempted to change sides to the point that just a few days ago a SNP MP joined the Conservative Party.

In Northern Ireland, things are not better. Once again, the Northern Ireland Assembly seem destined to be non operational with Westminster have to exercise what to all effects is direct rule, something that the Good Friday Agreement involving shared power sought to avoid.

We now face various sets of elections in coming May 2024. General Election in the United Kingdom, London Assembly Election and elections involved the so called Devolved Authorities, apart from other local elections.

May 2024 could be a whole set of changes within the United Kingdom, but the political realities might be somewhat different of what many have come to expect. In spite of the fact that many will still be voting on the basis of their political allegiances, many will be willing to change sides and vote for parties that they have never supported before.

There is dissent between parties, but also dissent within political parties. The purge carried out by Keir Starmer may come to haunt him. Many traditional Labour voters do not like Keir Starmer at all. In fact, they seem him as the enemy within. For certain regions, certain issues will take priority and they have proven that they are more than willing to vote for a specific issue and against the political party that they used to support. Immigration will be a huge factor in the coming elections. Anybody promoting open borders will find herself or himself cut off from public opinion.

Brexit: When you change one part of a deal you create a different deal.

Brexit: When you change one part of a deal you create a different deal

John McDonnell can talk about Customs Union as much as he wants but the fact remains that when you change one part of a deal that has already been agreed you change the deal and therefore have to return to the negotiations table and this menas yet another delay. What does another delay mean for the European Union? It means a delay in the proceeding, blocking the European Commission, leaving the European Parliament in the dark about who is and who isn't a Member of the European Parliament. The amount of time spent by EU authorities in negotiation after negotiation is time that the EU has not spent in other more fundamental issues for the European Union. John McDonnell, as other Labour MPs, is doing this not because of Brexit but because he has a political agenda to throw a spanner in the works with the belief that this would put him and his party in a better position come a General Election.

The SNP has a very public agenda. For the SNP, Britain is not what matters. For the SNP what matters is Scottish Independence to be achieved regardless of whatever happens to the United Kingdom. What hasn't enter the SNP's minds is that should Scotland become independent Scots will be foreigners in what remains in the United Kingdom and therefore a border will have to be erected across the border with England that will prevent freedom of movement of Scottish citizens. They will. have to have Scottish passports and apply for a visa to enter England or any other part of the United Kingdom. They will have to have their own currency supported by their own Scottish bank. They will have to have their own Armed Forces and they will lose all contracts and benefits they have at the moment as an integral part of the United Kingdom.

For the Liberal. Democrats, everything is about winning and elusive General Election. They became the fourth political party after the SNP and they are now rejoicing because rogue members of other political parties decided to join them. The question is: how long will happiness last? When a General Election comes those who chose to joined the Liberal Democrats might find themselves out of Parliament.

For the DUP, there is a very clear threat. If there was a General Election today in Northern Ireland, there is no guarantees that they will keep or increase the number of DUP MP in Westminster. In the wilderness, the DUP will have little say in Westminster and no say at all in Northern Ireland because the Northern Ireland Assembly has been paralized for the last three years when Sinn Fein IRA in violation of the Good Friday Agreement decided to leave the Northern Ireland Assembly. Sinn Fein IRA doesn't want Northern Ireland to exist. They want to annex Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland. For the DUP, there is a double wammy effect. The DUP doesn't like Abortion and doesn't like Same Sex Marriages. Because there isn't a functioning Northern Ireland Assembly, the Westminster Parliament in what constitutes de-facto Direct Rule imposed in Northern Ireland Abortion and Same Sex Marriages because there is no Northern Ireland Assembly that could oppose Abortion and Same Sex Marriages.

Rebel Conservative MPs are just playing into the hands of the Labour Party, a Labour Party that is divided and of which many Labour MPs don't want Jeremy Corbyn as Leader because of the danger of him becoming Prime Minister.

The only deal that could be put to the vote in a Referendum is the original deal that has the approval of both EU and UK and, even so, the European Union Parliament will only consider the deal that has been agreed by both EU and UK. As stated at the beginning, if you change one part of a deal you change the entire deal and this would lead to a new process of negotiations. Further delays for the United Kingdom and further delays for the EU that in the meantime will have no budget and will be facing UK Veto in the European Commission. 

  

EU: Is Britain heading for European Parliament Elections on May 23rd, 2019?

EU: Is Britain heading for European Parliament Elections on May 23rd, 2019?

What is happening in Parliament right now gives us a clear indication that Britain is heading towards European Elections and this could include a General Election.Another issue that needs to be addressed is if the present Government will have enough MPs loyal to the government to fill up all positions that need to be filled up in the administration. Today, two Ministers including the Secretary directly involved in the Brexit process and a Junior Minister related to Welsh Affairs resigned their positions.

Given the number of Members of Parliament leaving the so called mainstream political parties including the governing party would lead to a state of affairs in which the Government that is already a minority government and only able to pass laws with the support of the DUP would not be able to get bills through Parliament. On record, the next General Election should take place in 2022. Without a General Election, we would have a Government that for the next three years would be what Americans call a Lame Duck Government.Given the attributions that Parliament has given itself, it could be the case that the Executive would be neutralised.

Some like the Scottish National Party are very much willing to engage in European Parliament Elections. What is usually forgotten is that forces said to be Far Right will use the European Parliament Elections to disrupt as much as possible the functions of the European Parliament and will get from the European Union vast amounts of money to fund their political activities in the United Kingdom. This is something that other political parties are very much aware of and this what both the European Union and the Conservative Party have been trying to avoid by reaching a deal or implementing Brexit before May 22nd 2019.

Any extension that goes beyond May 22nd, 2019 will include having to take part in European Parliament Elections because otherwise it would disrupt the European Parliament and this means in simple language that we could be talking about years.

Brexit: Wednesday could prove to be a key day

Brexit: Wednesday could prove to be a key day

As Alice Weidel from Alternative für Deutschland confirmed, Brexit brings home in Germany the realities that the BBC and other mass media have been hiding from the British people: Germany vulnerability to Brexit. 

Germany is the only one country in Western Europe that cannot withstand a protracted financial crisis created by job losses. In an attempt to reduce pollution, Germany has been taking significant decisions to rein it its automotive industry by trying to rely less and less on diesel. As a consequence of it, a crucial branch of German manufacturing has been suffering and thousands of jobs have been lost. Add to this the announcements made by President Donald Trump about wanting a fairer deal when it comes to exporting American made cars to the European Union.

A British withdrawal from the EU and most importantly the disappearance of British funding for the European Union means that German taxpayers would have to be asked for more money to continue funding the EU Project.

Recent electoral gains made by Alternative für Deutschland that is now represented not only in the Bundestag but in every single State Parliament in Germany worries the Establishment that is using every single dirty tactic to counter Alternative für Deutschland's electoral gains.

Alternative für Deutschland cares about political gains but it cares more about the well-being of the German People and this is why Alice Weidel severely criticise the approach of the ruling coalitions of CDU/CSU and SPD when dealing with the United Kingdom. She asked for fairer treatment for the United Kingdom. Britain is Germany's main business partner in Europe.

The Conservative Party is falling apart not just in the House of Commons but also outside the House of Commons. For some time, local party associations in London have been campaign for a London Conservative Party that would break links with Conservative Central Office.

The Labour Party is in no better position. Massive fragmentation has lead to losses of Members of Parliament both in the Conservative Party and in the Labour Party and even the minute Liberal Democrats face the fact of rising discontent regarding Brexit within their own ranks.

The announcement that Theresa May is willing to ask for a longer extension and to get into talks with Jeremy Corbyn doesn't surprise. After attacking the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn both in terms of its political programme and in terms of its approach towards Israel that has been masked as Anti-Semitism, when the battle rages both against May and against Corbyn the two embattled leaders are desperate for an agreement that would save them both from more public hatred and internal divisions.

The announcement that there is an ongoing campaign to replace John Bercow as Speaker of the House of Commons doesn't surprise either. His pronouncement against putting Theresa May's Deal to the vote for a fourth time could mean that John Bercow could be used as sacrificial lamb. If Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn reach an agreement, John Bercow would be an obvious obstacle but there is always the possibility that in agreement with Jeremy Corbyn, Theresa May could disguise her Deal as a new Deal to be able to ask Parliament to vote again.

Having said that, despite the fact that Theresa May could ask for a longer delay such delay couldn't go beyond May 22nd if the intention is to avoid taking part in European Parliament Elections that could be crucial for Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron's plans regarding deeper political, economic and military integration in the European Union.

A General Election and a new Referendum were offered by the European Union as justification for a longer delay and to presumably help process legislation that the British Parliament hasn't had the time to integrate into British Law before the date of formal withdrawal from the European Union.

What will happen when the House of Commons starts proceedings tomorrow? Nobody knows. Could Theresa May's strategy to get a Deal definitely sink the Conservative Cabinet and destroy any sense of unity left in the Conservative Party?

The Conservative Party, after losing its majority in the 2017 General Election, has depended on the DUP to have enough votes to pass legislation in the House of Commons. How many Conservative MPs have resigned? It could be the case that even with the DUP on-board, there are not enough Conservative MPs to pass legislation through Parliament. In America there is what is known as a Lame Duck President. Could we end up with a Lame Duck Prime Minister unable to push legislation in the House of Commons. The next General Election is supposed to take place in 2022. Can the United Kingdom spend more than three years with a Lame Duck Government?

Britain: Brexit and other political realities

Britain: Brexit and other political realities

Despite the time lost and resources lost, I think that there is a very positive side of Brexit and what happens concerning Brexit. The political system has been tested. What I call Vote Cooperatives - political associations based on convenience rather than true beliefs - are falling apart. For a very long time so called mainstream political parties have merely been labels that people use to get elected without actually sharing beliefs, values and aims.

If the Brexit process leads to healthier and truer political parties then this will be a very welcome outcome of the Brexit process. What we see as fragmentation and divisions is nothing more than a reality check that proves that, as I have stated, political parties in Britain have been nothing more than Vote Cooperatives.

There is another fundamental issue and it is the issue of how people get elected. The system is deficient and much too many people feel that they are not voting for what they want but to stop something that they don't want and this is very reflected by the choices made by Parliament. Too many Members of Parliament feel that they don't have the obligation to represent those who voted for them. Driven by their own ideologies and beliefs, they are directly responsible for the gap between elected authorities and the Electorate. They are responsible for the growing lack of trust in the system.

The time is long overdue for politicians to start delivering on what they promised to the Electorate.Some parties like the SNP have as the main agenda to destroy the United Kingdom. They are fixated on the issue of an independent Scotland at whatever price. They want to take powers away from Westminster to give the said powers to an elected group of foreign bureaucrats.They hate the United Kingdom so much that they are very much willing to destroy Scotland in the process.

Brexit: I have a plan, a plan that cannot possibly fail

Brexit: I have a plan, a plan that cannot possibly fail

L'Inspecteur May de la Sûreté Conservative

Plan B, as it followed, was Plan A under another letter mmm... name. You cannot have a Customs Union and be members of the Common Market without Freedom of Movement that incidentally was explicitly rejected. If you had Freedom of Movement it would amount to ignoring the outcome of the Referendum on EU Membership.

The SNP doesn't want Brexit. SNP wants to get out of the United Kingdom to then join the EU. Now, this amounts to selling out Scottish Independence. The Scottish Parliament would then surrender Scottish fisheries to the EU and would also surrender many of the powers given to the Scottish Parliament by the Devolution Act. Scottish Independence to then become an EU province? 

For all the talk about the Good Friday Agreement as a great achievement, the Northern Ireland Assembly has not been working for more than two years because the Sinn Fein/IRA walked away from it and asked for conditions that they perfectly know the Protestant Community will never accept. It the Sinn Fein/IRA's way of ensuring that there couldn't be proper Home Rule in Northern Ireland. They did the same in Westminster by getting elected MPs but never taking their seats in the House of Commons. The difference is that without them there still is a working Parliament of the United Kingdom as a whole while in Northern Ireland Devolution has been frozen.

This means that the Catholic Community of Northern Ireland, because of Sinn Fein/IRA, has no representation in Westminster and has no representation in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Good Friday Agreement was violated by Sinn Fein/IRA and is no longer valid.

Most of the trade of Northern Ireland is not with the Republic of Ireland. Most of the trade of Northern Ireland is with the rest of the United Kingdom and with the rest of the World and the ports of the Republic of Ireland are merely transit ways. Even for the Republic of Ireland the United Kingdom is a major partner.

 

 

Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May cancels critical vote and there is widespread chaos

Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May cancels critical vote and there is widespread chaos

The House of Commons was the scene of mayhem today after unexpectedly Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she had postponed a vote on the Brexit Deal she had negotiated with the European Union. After  more than 3 hours speaking in the House of Commons the Prime Minister left the debating chamber and it was up to the Leader of the House to try and deal with a barrage coming from all sides questioning what had just happened.

It was reported that Prime Minister Theresa May was on her way to Europe to try and get a helping hand to save whatever is left of the Conservative government. A very sombre mood took over the remaining members of the Cabinet still sitting in the House of Commons that couldn't hide their despair. A Conservative MP compared the British Government to a group of children that had run away and were hiding in the toilets.

Fearing a disastrous defeat in the House of Commons that could have immediately triggered a Motion of No Confidence that could have meant the end of her career as Prime Minister, Theresa May told the House of Commons that she had postponed the vote to try and deal with the issue of the backstop contained as a key part of the deal that practically everybody rejects and it was said that the Prime Minister was on her way to Europe to try and salvage whatever could be salvaged of the deal that has unified Members of Parliament of all political parties against the Conservative Government.

Yesterday, I compared Theresa May to Neville Chamberlain. She was talking about reassurances that would lead everybody to support the deal but she was reminded of the fact that reassurances without legal force would do nothing to change what has been a political disaster of major proportions. Unless the legal text of the deal is modified to get rid of the backstop, the deal would be totally unacceptable for both Brexiteers and Remainers.

She started her Premiership on a winning note but she made a fundamental mistake when she called an early election and lost her Parliamentary majority in the House of Commons forcing her to depend on the support provided by DUP. As if this wasn't enough, she then lied to the DUP and agreed a deal that went against what she had promised to the DUP. Tonight, the negotiators of the European Union hold the key that could either save or sink Prime Minister Theresa May. Smelling blood, the Labour Party went on the attack and now the fate of Britain could be decided by the Courts as voices asking to disallow the call for the implementation of Article 50 grow ever louder. Yesterday, there was the talk about calling a second Referendum on EU Membership. If the Opposition to Brexit manages to block the full implementation of Article 50 everything would back to square one without even having to win a Referendum and the decision made by the British Electorate in 2016 would be de-facto ignored. 

Brexit's new nightmare: Theresa May allows a motion of disclosure of legal advice that comes to haunt her

Brexit's new nightmare: Theresa May allows a motion to disclosure of legal advice on new deal that comes to haunt her.

Geoffrey Cox MP - UK Attorney General - confirms that May's deal is a pile of dangerous shit - a calculated risk he called it.

What the so called deal actually does is to lock up Britain and put Britain forever at the mercy of the European Union, unable to come out of a bad deal.
Sticking to what Geoffrey Cox MP said on the floor of the House of Commons, Theresa May's deal is actually an act of treason that transforms Britain into a colony - forced to adopt decisions made by the European Union and unable to challenge decisions made by the European Union. Not the kind of Brexit that people voted for in 2016 on the EU Membership Referendum.

Parliament now wants to know what exactly the legal advice give to Prime Minister Theresa May was - not a bit of it but the whole of it. Theresa May's is terrified of the truth coming out just a few days before the so called Deal is going to be put to the vote in the House of Commons. The vote is due to take place on December 11th 2018.

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

Brexit: EU is playing with fire

The European Union is being playing with the situation in Northern Ireland as a way for force the United Kingdom into submission but this has backfired as UK moves towards Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

Yesterday in the House of Commons it became explicitly clear that the Good Friday Agreement is no more because Sinn Fein violated the terms of the agreement by walking away from the Northern Ireland Assembly and staying away from it for more than 500 days. This is one less thing to worry about and if Sinn Fein doesn't return there will be Direct Rule in Northern Ireland.

The other issue the EU has being playing with is what is known as 'Hard Border' between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is not a problem for UK. If the EU and/or the Republic of Ireland want to pay for it they are free to do so.

Speculation about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister has also being used to blackmail the UK government but Jeremy Corbyn could only get in if there is a General Election and in principle there is not going to be a General Election until 2022. Britain is a Parliamentary Democracy and Prime Ministers can come and go without the need of having a General Election.

Whatever happens in EU, everything revolves around Berlin. Angela Merkel has just had a scare when tensions led to a potential break up between CDU and CSU. In Bavaria, Alternative für Deutschland is advancing as CSU is retreating. Angela Merkel struggled to form a coalition just a few months ago when she failed to form such a coalition with FDP and Grünen and after great effort she managed to get a deal with SDP. But without CSU, a General Election would be practically a given with no hope of success.

One out of six German cars is exported to UK and tensions with US in what is seen as a trade war could make it very difficult for Germany to be able to export cars to US. Angela Merkel knows that she is walking on thin ice and this is why the latest developments in the United Kingdom regarding an agreement within the Conservative Party Cabinet didn't elicit any comments. EU heads chose to remain silent for fear of tilting the situation towards a No Deal that could badly damage German industries.

As time goes by, with the resignation of more members of the British Cabinet, Prime Minister Theresa's May situation becomes ever more precarious and a No Deal would be the end result. The EU is now seeing that trying to blackmail the UK government was a very serious mistake.

We cannot possibly foresee the outcome but it has been said that some of the conditions agreed at Checkers would make it impossible to have a Free Trade Deal with the US. If this is the case, the proposals would already be dead.

Both DUP and Conservatives have something to earn from a political deal

Both DUP and Conservatives have something to earn from a political deal

Arlene Foster clearly knows the agenda of Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn and of Sinn Fein, agenda that has been publicised when the notion of a United Ireland was put firmly under the spotlight.

During political campaigning for the 2017 General Election, Jeremy Corbyn was asked repeatedly about his political sympathies and his closeness with Sinn Fein (political arm of the Provisional IRA).

Secessionist political parties like SNP got a cold shower with the advances of the Conservative Party in Scotland but Arlene Foster knows full well that the Conservative Party is the best guarantee of keeping Northern Ireland as an integral part of the United Kingdom. Should Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister, the chances are that Northern Ireland will not longer be a part of the United Kingdom.

Before a meeting due to take place tomorrow in which both DUP and the Conservative Party will lay down the foundations of a political agreement, DUP sources were quick to refute rumours about sectarian issues on the negotiations table. The weight of the public sector in Northern Ireland is considerable and therefore investment in the public sector and the issue of pensions in the public sector are fundamental in any agreement. This is why Arlene Foster spoke about maintaining the triple-lock on pensions. The Conservatives that were not keep in keeping the triple-lock would give way on triple-lock pensions to keep the DUP onboard.

In other areas like cross border transit, DUP is not far away from the position maintained by other political parties including Sinn Fein. Open-Borders between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are seen as a sine qua non condition to allow trade that is vital both for the Republic of Ireland and for Northern Ireland.

Gender issues that deeply trouble the Conservative Party would also be put aside to focus on economic issues that would benefit Northern Ireland and strengthen DUP with more jobs and more investment.

Both DUP and the Conservative Party share an Unionist Platform. They both want to maintain the integrity of the United Kingdom. Yesterday, the choice was between an independent Britain and a Britain increasingly dominated by the European Union. Today, the choice is between an United Kingdom as we know it and a fragmented United Kingdom.

As the news from Spain is about a Referendum on Catalonia's Independence, many would be reassured by a move to reinforce the integrity of the United Kingdom. Just a few days ago, SNP decided to put on hold its proposals for yet another Referendum on Scottish Independence after election results that clearly benefited parties opposed to the break-up of the United Kingdom.