Question marks and more question marks = Elections that can change the geopolitical map

 

Elections that can change the geopolitical map are taking place throughout 2024. We start with France in a few days time when European Parliament Elections could signal what will the potential outcome of the French General Election be.

In the United Kingdom, many assume that Keir Starmer will be the next British Prime Minister. Is this set in stone?

And in the USA, please have a look at those running as Vice-Presidential Candidates. We should not underestimate the possibility of Vice-Presidential Candidates becoming key figures during the next mandate starting in 2024. Will the outcome of these elections be clear enough to avoid the precedent of litigation when elections in certain states were strongly contested?

There are important developments happening not only in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. In October 2025, Federal Elections in Germany. In the Federal Election of 2021, the SPD - head of the ruling coalition with FDP and Grüne - 23.4% of the vote. It now has an expectation of vote of 15%. FDP had 11.4% and it now has 5%, while Grüne had 14.7% and it now has 12%. CDU had 24.2 % and it now has 30%. In any case, results point towards yet another coalition.

The impact of what is happening in Germany has had obvious consequences - all members of the present coalition have seen their support going down. In 2021, 23.4 plus 11.4 plus 14.7 = 49.5 

Today, support for the coalition is 15 plus 5 plus 12 = 32

Alternative für Deutschland has the same level of support that Grüne and FDP have put together. But other surveys indicate that SPD has 15% and AfD has 17%. This means that Alternative für Deutschland has more support than the political party that is now ruling Germany. Should anything major happen, how will any major event - war included - affect the outcome of German elections?

On the way to World War Three: This is not the end, not the beginning of the end. It is maybe the end of the beginning

 

Although, officially, the beginning of World War Two was September 3rd, 1939, in actual fact the World War Two started a lot earlier. 

In the early 1930s, Japan was battling it out with China. In 1936, the Spanish Civil War was yet another step. In 1938, the then Czchecoslovakia so much of its territory taken away. So other things were happening long before German troops launched the atttack against Poland.

Palestine, Ukraine and Yemen are just part of the picture. They are steps towards World War Three. All sides, as it usually the case, try to interpret the opponents' movements, according to what they think is the opponents agenda.

The war in Palestine is a war of extermination. The general idea is to get of Palestinians on the way to the creation of the bigger Israel. When Palestinians are out of the way, or even before that, Israel will use any justification to attack its neighbours. Ir is already waging war against Syria and Lebanon and other countries will be attacked.

The conflict in Ukraine has served to clarify the contradictions of a presumed unified European Union. The European Union is a political project and the controversies in terms of lack of support clearly show that behind the facade of unity there are dangerous differences when countries are asked to choose between the political project and their own national interests.

The conflict in Ukraine is only about winning. In the same manner, that Israel has no intention of allowing Palestinians to have a political solution, in Ukraine there is no political solution. So this is war for years to come and in the process other conflicts will appear, conflicts we have been hearing about as possibilities.

We have repeatedly heard the British Prime Minister, the Secretary for Defense and many other major and minor political personalities talking about doing the walking. The fact remains that in the event of any major conflict Britain is desperately ill equipped. One government after another has totally disregarded the need for Britain to be prepared. They have done the talking, but they haven't done the walking. Britain has barely 40,000 people fit for war of a total of about 73,000 - counting administration staff and cleaning personnel. Britain is not even capable of guarding its own borders or patrolling its own territorial waters.We hear talk about long term projects that mention 2035. Well, what has Britain got today in 2023? 

European politicians talk about their fears of yet another President Trump's presidency. Why? Because they fear that USA will walk away from NATO. Why? Because NATO is the USA. If you look at all other NATO members, they don't have the capacity to wage yet another World War. Germany's development was stiffled on purpose. Germany has been prevented from developing its true potential and German politicians will have to make a huge effort to convince German voters that they need to part with more of their tax monies to build infrasture to prepare the country for war. Germany's bridges and Germany's road have not been built to endure tanks and heavy equipment. But this, as important as it is, is practically nothing compared to the fact that Germany does not have neither the material resources nor the emotional preparedness for war. Decades of blame and apologizing for World War Two have left Germany disabled to even defend itself from aggression. And let us remember that Germany is - even it is poor present state - the biggest economy in Europe.

There are two certain possibilities - vertical escalation and horizontal escalation. Vertical escalation means the use of much more advanced weapons. Horizontal escalation means the spread of war beyond the present boundaries, but there is yet another possibility - vertical and horizontal escalation. Lets see how many countries have the capacity to combine both. Look at both sides of the divide to know what will happen next.

In a few months time, the warmongers of today will be history

Whether it is USA, Britain, Germany, France, et cetera, one thing is certain: key warmongers of today will not be around for long.

How much time has Biden left? How much time has Rishi Sunak left? How much time Scholz and Macron have left?

Look at America. What is happening in Latin America? There was a time when in Uruguay the Colorado Party has an almost completely monopoly of power. Then came the Partido National, the other Conservative Party of Uruguay. What happened next? The Frente Amplio (Broad Front) took the reins of power and the conservative parties of Uruguay could only come back as a coalition. 

What is happening in Argentina, in Chile, in Brazil, even in Bolivia? The old certainties have disappeared. The Partido Justicialista arrived completely divided in the October round of elections to select the new Argentinian Parliament - with barely 30 something of support compared to a completely political grouping that also got 30 something. Now, we wait for the second round of elections to see who is elected President of Argentina and on what basis. If Milei manages to attract the attention of younger generations chances are that he could be the winner replacing both Justicialistas and Radicales. But as political commentators remarked during the first round of elections, the issue is fundamentally not who is in charge but what can whoever is in charge do to revert a 134% rate of inflation.

Strategies to scare people and deter them from supporting alternative political forces are failing to do the job. People don't want continuity. They want positive changes. They are tired of a bit of the same. In Germany of all places the idea of banning a political force that already represents more than twenty per cent of the electors is a sign of desperation. Olaf Scholz knows that he is walking on a high rope with failing political partners. The SPD tried to distance itself from CDU/CSU as coalition member precisely because it was losing support. FPD is losing support and SPD itself is losing support. So how will the German coalition last? In spite of what politicians and mass media say, how feasible is a coalition of Alternative für Deutschland and other conservative groups. In the days of Angela Merkel, local CDU representatives were comfortable enough to work together with Alternative für Deutschland.

France is a bit of a puzzle. Macron is unpopular, but fears about the rise of Rassemblement National motivated some people to support what they did not like. Marine Le Pen did the right thing by choosing to have different young leaders to attract younger generations of voters.

Both in Germany and in France, political parties are exploiting what is happening in Palestine. Never mind what is happening in Palestine if what happens in Palestine helps them promote a certain narrative seeking to advance Nationalism in Germany and in France. Are you really and truly German? Are you really and truly French? Politics moves towards identity politics. You belong or you don't belong. You are part of the national culture or you are not part of the national culture. Multiculturalism is seen as a failure and Identity politics is no friend of Multiculturalism.

In Britain, with differences in political language approach, the message is clear: 'Multiculturalism is becoming a National Security issue' and the Home Secretary - herself a member of an ethnic minority - is investing a lot of political capital going against Multiculturalism. She does not explicitily say it, but the nature of what she is saying is obviously going against Multiculturalism. Other political operators are less shy and strictly say 'that is not British, they are not British'. She is diving the country and Mosques are becoming a target again. Not a target for people like Paul Golding that has dedicated his political career to attack Mulisms. They are becoming a target for the privileged political classes, because the privileged classes are closer to Jewish interests than they are to Muslim interests.

For one reason or another, Identity Politics is being promoted by people who used to say that they stood against Identity Politics. In a reversal of roles, Identity Politics is not been promoted by now defunct political forces like the BNP, the National Front or Britain First. Identity Politics is coming from the very top of British politics. Listen to commentators like Nigel Farage. What is he constantly talking about?

Whatever happens today you must remember that the warmongers of today will shortly be history. Even hawkish scarecrow Mr John Bolton might not be around too long. He criticizes Joe Biden saying that Jo Biden is not aggressive enough. Well, John Bolton was fired by President Trump because John Bolton wanted President Trump to be more aggressive. In retirement, a few cups of lime tea will do John Bolton a lot of good.

 

 

Divisions promoted by race and gender campaigners benefit the Russian Federation and China

 As the West gets bombarded with race orientated and gender orientated campaigns that create hatred and division, weakening national identity, the Russian Federation and China get the upper hand by upholding traditional values and national unity.

Once again, the British government has slapped the British Armed Forces by giving demoralized and underpowered armed forces the lowest salary rises. British total manpower at the moment is 73,000, as for many years the British Armed Forces have been facing a recruitment crisis based on two factors: lack of enough fit candidates coming forward and a nationwide campaign aimed at destroying British identity and national pride.

How do campaigns based on racial hatred and gender hatred benefit Britain? They don't benefit Britain. Is this part of a plan to weaken Britain? Some say that this is not happening by chance. There is an agenda based in geopolitics to weaken Britain from within.

According to reports, Rishi Sunak is de facto the new British Prime Minister from now until the next General Election that should take place in 2024?

 

If reports are true, Rishi Sunak will be the new British Prime Minister.

The question is: how long will he last before a new game of intrigues kicks in? 

What will stop Nigel Farage from putting into practice what he spoke about on television, regarding the formation of a new political force? Is the Conservative Party really and trully finished?

At the time of the leadership contest, Rishi Sunak was the favourite of the Parliamentary Conservative Party and Lizz Truss was the favourite of the Membership of the Conservative Party. Now, the roles have been reversed. Rishi Sunak is still the favourite of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, but the Membership of the Conservative Party has had no say or, what is worse, have been denied a chance to vote by the very same man that were standing to support who, according to reports, walked away from the contest.

The Hawks of the Labour Party will have plenty to talk about and there are no doubts whatsoever that the witch-hunt will continue all the way until the next General Election that is due to take place in May 2024. There is no end in sight of the Conservative Civil War with former Conservatives places a sharp-shooter from the fringes of British politics.

There are former Conservatives and present Conservatives that want the Conservative Party to lose the next General Election and many MPs are at this very moment thinking about their futures. What motivated Boris Johnson, who was seen as a favourite to return to the field, to abandon the fight? What about the future of women politicians? For what we know, Mordaunt didn't have the necessary number of supporters to be in the fight. Look at how Theresa May ended up after her electoral failures. Look at how Lizz Truss ended up after little more than a month as Prime Minister. Will women be trusted ever again or at least in the near future?

With the passing of Queen Elizabeth II and the arrival of King Charles III and of Rishi Sunak, the whole business will be a man's business. Let's have a look at the next Conservative Cabinet. In a matter of days we lost Priti Patel and Suella Braverman. Let's see how many of those left will survive and in what positions.

 

Three Candidates? Hope-ful or Hope-fool?

 

In the state Britain is at the moment, one wonders if anybody will be able to change the direction of travel.

This is not merely about economics so don't get your hopes up thinking that everything can be sorted with proper accounting. Decisions have been made in terms of geopolitics that have had enormous repercussions in Britain and elsewhere.

Everybody is trying to make sure that they are not the ones worse hit by the repercussions. We have got salaries whose buying power could evaporate. We have quite a few pensioners many of whom depend on a state pension that, despite promises about triple-locks, could find themselves struggling to pay for the basic necessities of everyday living. We have authorities in charge of delivering services with budgets that were limited when things were more or less stable.

When it comes to transport in London, for example, the Mayor of London has very little room for maneuver. If he agrees to demands made by those working for rail services, he will have to reduce support for bus services. Whatever he gives to John will have to be taken from Peter. How will local authorities cope when their bills go up with little support received from central government? January is not far away and January is the time of the year when travelling fares are adjusted 'according to the rate of inflation'. Everybody, whether they are involved in transport services or use transport services, will be hit. The impact of energy bills has been limited with funds provided to consumers until next April but such kind of support cannot go on indefinitely. The list of adjustments and re-adjustmens is extremely long and difficult to deal with in a single article. 

Will the British government be forced to reconsider geopolitical stances? It is by no means justifiable to send valuable resources abroad when the country is facing a burden that is pushing more and more people below the poverty line, regardless of the fact that the present troubles have been self-inflicted.