Gemany's Day X is here to stay

Germany's Day X is here to stay

Everybody was making contingency plans for Day X, the day when gas supplies coming from the Russian Federation were going to cut off and such day arrived when the Russian Federation responding to those who were threatening the Russian Federation with the suspension of gas imports decided to do the deed itself and leave Germany and other countries without gas and this was bound to happen.

Western Germany - we continue talking about Western Germany because the hopes brought by the Fall of the Berlin Wall in terms of economic leveling of East Germany with West Germany were quickly wiped out - is suffering the consequences. More than ever before, Germany will have to rely on coal thus defeating plans presumably designed to protect the environment and CO2 levels. But there is more than that because one German company in particular was using Russian gas to produce battery cases for electric cars and even making train clutch systems. Of course the company representative chose to remain anonymous because he did not want to be seen as supporting the Russian Federation. Having said that, the prospect for the said Germany company is closure leading to unemployment. Let us remember than 55% per cent of the gas used in Germany was coming from the Russian Federation. The damage done to the Germany economy and the erosion of German political stability might not be a price worth paying.

What is coming is a chain reaction in a country in which companies big and small are interlinked. This is the domino effect. Bayer, Basf and Thyssenkrupp are vulnerable and practically every area of industrial activity will be damaged including construction material, pesticides, synthetics, packaging, disinfectants, the producion of drugs for medical use such as antibiotics, vaccines and cancer drugs. Nickel and aluminium come to a great extent from the Russian Federation.

And what happens to hospitals, emergency services and medical manufacturers despite the fact that they will be treated as priorities. Companies are being forced to demonstrate that they deserve to be treated as priorities and those involved in glass manufacturing are an example of what could happen. If production comes to a halt, the nature of the production process will mean that machines could be terminally damaged when liquids settle inside the machines.

If supply chains collapse, already affected by the paralysis generated by lockdown measures during the Covid pandemic, the outcome will be bankruptcies and mass unemployment. Some talk about a recession that will be worse than any of the recessions Germany has faced until now. Do you know what this means?

Angela Merkel: CDU and CSU at war on immigration

Not if but when

Should there be a Federal Election in Germany, CDU/CSU would get less than 30 per cent of the vote. CDU and CSU are at war. The issue: Immigration. CDU is the Titanic and CSU that still holds 40% of the vote in Bavaria doesn't want to sink together with CDU. 

In October 2018, there will be elections in Bavaria and Alternative für Deutschland would make important gains. CSU insists that Germany should turn back asylum-seekers registered in other EU countries at its national borders. Merkel says this violates the EU's principle of freedom of movement and is seeking European-wide and multi-lateral solutions, solutions opposed by Austria, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Italy, among others, who profoundly dislike Angela Merkel's intentions of flooding the EU with migrants.

CSU that threatened to impose border checks and the clock is ticking away. Would Angela Merkel be able to survive until the end of 2018. If she goes, there will be two political parties to watch: CSU and Alternative für Deutschland. If Angela Merkel goes, there will be a new Germany and EU will no longer be the same or will not even be anymore.

Bavaria is Germany's economic powerhouse. With Germany's power-base increasingly angry because of the immigration mess, it is not inconceivable that they will support stricter immigration policies that will put Germany on a collision course with Angela Merkel's policies.

A trade war with USA doesn't help Angela Merkel. In tit for tat, Germany will be the loser. Steel, aluminium and car manufacturing are the sectors to be most affected and this means job losses in German manufacturing. Add this to the fact that Germany will be forced to pay a lot more to balance the books of the European Union after Britain exist and this can only mean higher taxation to be paid for mostly by German industrialists and manufacturers.

Germany is a key country in Europe and Germany will follow the trend towards immigration controls and deportations. It is not a matter of if but a matter of when.