Showing posts with label Ursula von der Leyen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ursula von der Leyen. Show all posts

Sunday, 17 August 2025

Will Ukraine be Yugoslavia 2025?

Will Ukraine be Yugoslavia 2025?

Henry Kissinger stated that he saw the partition of the Ukraine as the only solution to achive lasting peace by separating the two sides - non Russians and ethnic Russians that live in the present Ukraine. Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine fough on opposite sides during World War Two. 

Data:  Western and eastern Ukraine represent distinct regions with contrasting historical, cultural, and economic characteristics. Western Ukraine generally includes regions like Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia, formerly part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk), has a strong industrial and Russian-speaking identity, with a history tied to the Russian Empire and Soviet Union.

The meeting in Washington will be about parties that have different agendas. Trade, Defense and Geopolitical Interests will be on the table.

Not long ago Ursula von der Leyen negotiated an agreement with President Trump, agreement that was very much disliked by German politicans of all political colours that asked for the resignation of the President of the European Commission. In France, the French Prime Minister himself expressed strong opposition to such a deal that is defined by many as an act of surrender to American interest.

Given the troubles several European countries are facing at home, EU politicians are desperately trying to get something that they can call a win. President Trump has the aces. He conditioned American support to the signing of a trade agreement.

At the end of the meeting in Alaska, the sides mentioned their intention to improve trade relationships. President Trump himself needs a win. Some week ago, he made an agreement with Ukraine indicating that Ukraine will give USA access to Ukraine mineral resources in exchange for military support. What President Trump and President Putin agreed in Alaska was not reported. I suspect that trade and a peace agreement come as a package and that the Yugoslavia Option is on the table.

Thursday, 16 January 2025

4 Days to go: 20 January 2025

 

Whether the Knesset ratifies any ceasefire remains to be seen. President Biden wanted to close his time in office with some big news, but premeditated Jewish delays are already threatening the supposed ceasefire deal as 70 Palestinians are murdered by Israel in the last few hours.

Everybody is expecting big changes in national and international politics. Panama Canal built by USA to be controlled by USA. Another USA State or more than one new USA States? And when you talk about the Gulf, it might not be about Middle East or Asia Minor but closer to home as the Gulf of Mexico becomes the Gulf of America.

Will Keir Starmer, Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen be invited to the inauguration of the new American President? Another bit of 'let's wait and see'. Will the now British Foreign Secretary that has repeatedly insulted President Donald Trump be invited to the ceremonial and very formal occasion?

We know that happened to Governor Trudeau that soonafter a meeting with President Trump was given his marching orders. Will other politicians be given their marching orders? Again, let's wait and see. In Germany, a Federal Election can dramatically change the political environment in Germany and in France the new Prime Minister is fighting for his survival and being threatened with a no confidence vote. Will he last until July 2025 when new French Assembly Elections can take place.

And in Britain, Keir Starmer is losing cabinet members as trees lose leaves in the autumn. Will Rachel Reeves remain in her post? Let's see what she can come up with in the new budget. Although inflation is said to have fallen, the fall has nothing to do with announced financial measures that will only come into effect in April 2025. Let's see what happens to inflation after April 2025 when the real picture of the British economy will come to the surface. 


Friday, 8 September 2023

United Kingdom: Prime Minister, what are you doing to prepare Britain for war?

 

Prime Minister, what are you doing to prepare Britain for war?

Never mind the speeches and the reschuffles. Never mind the change of faces in the Cabinet. What is the British Prime Minister actually doing to prepare Britain for war?

All we hear is about filling up Royal Air Force bases with illegal migrants caught in the Channel or setting up barges that might be a fire hazard.

All we hear is about sending equipment of dubious military value to a theatre of war that might be the Sarajevo of the Twenty-First Century. The last we heard from the British government was a minimal salary increase of about 5% for those serving in the British Armed Forces. We also heard about a Tank Project that resulted in failure after failure.

Rishi Sunak is an accountant. He is no war leader. He is not even a politician as he dropped into politics coming from the world of high finances without any military background or the capacity to understand what it means to lead a country at war. His counterpart, Keir Starmer, is no war leader either. He is a man who came from a legal background without any military background whatsoever. So even the presumed replacement does not know how to lead a country at war.

All we hear is bla, bla, bla at NATO meetings that are no more than social gatherings including some failed Secretaries of State ie Ursula von der Leyen, the enemy of the German Armed Forces. As Defense Secretary she was atrocious to the point that many in Germany celebrated the fact that she was appointed President of the European Commission. 

The one man that knew something about war left the Cabinet. Ben Wallace MP was a military man with a military career and he knew what he was talking about, but he was dismissed by an old man with diminishing intellectual capabilities called Joe Biden. In fact, when there was talk about considering possible candidates, Joe Biden personally dismissed Ben Wallace MP and he did not want him not even as a possible candidate. Who replaced Ben Wallace MP. Grant Shapps MP, a man whose profund knowledge can be summarized as 'my family escaped from National Socialist Germany'. Being the descendant of people persecuted by National Socialist Germany is no proven skill in military matters that involve preparing a country for war.


Wednesday, 4 January 2023

Ukraine: Dwight Einsenhower was right all along

 

General Dwight Einsenhower
(later President Dwight Einsenhower)

When the then Commander of Allied Forces in Europe raised the alert about the power of weapons industries to get completely out of control, he was right all along and what happened along decades has proven that he was rightly concerned about the consequences of the fever to make vast amounts of money by promoting conflicts everywhere.

During a recent interview, Oliver North - a former advisor to President Ronald Reagan - merely confirmed that the military escalade not just in Europe but also across areas bordering China - is a business much more than a geopolitical issue. This is the place where geopolitical reasons are used as a pretext to spend and spend taxpayers money to enrich the military industrial complex.

William Hartung, especialized in defense analysis and coverage of economics of the Pentagon, indicates that the United States and its NATO allies have spent tens of billions in the conflict in Ukraine, but that the Pentagon, the military services and the big weapons contractors appear to be poised to seize on this crisis to permanently expand the size and scope of the US arms industry in ways that go far beyond what is needed.

Amont the plans being floated, indicates William Hartung, is the construction of new weapons factories, dramatically increasing production of ammunition, anti-tank weapons and others systems, and easing oversight of weapons procurement. This is reducing controls in terms of the monies spent.

Lack of supervision of monies spent to create something that William Hartung indicates is both unnecessary and unwise. There is the certain risk of lowering safeguards against waste and poor performance. To put in everyday language, there is the danger of producing bad quality equipment and wasting resources that could be used to meet other urgent priorities.

The issue remains that, as Oliver North stated, so called aid for Ukraine is in fact monies that never reach Ukraine, but benefit directly the military industrial complex in the USA transforming aggresion into a very profitable business for corporations but being very bad deal for the USA.

More will be revealed once Congress passes the Fiscal Year 2023 Pentagon spending bill and the administration announces its proposal for Fiscal Year 2024 early next year, states William Hartung. Given the present impass concerning the election of the Leader of the House of Representatives with Republicans that don't seem to be to agree who is going to replace the outgoing Nancy Pelosi, one can imagine that the present political entanglement will add delay upon delay. In the meantime, there is every sing that procurement will go ahead without much needed supervision. The amount involved much exceed the amount  committed to the conflict in Ukraine.

Apparently, Army Acquisition chief Doug Bush announced that there are plans to triple ammunition production and double production of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems launchers. The Pentagon's overall weapons acquisition chief William LaPlante is said to be pushing measures to speed up production of weapons and this would include multy-year production commitments. William LaPlante counts on Congress to add billions of dollars into the so called industrial base to fund these production lines.

Going back to Ukraine being used as justification for massive long term military investment, this looks and sounds like preparation for another conflict - namely a war against China. Having said that the equipment being made would be for fighting on the ground and there is no prospect of the US fighting a war against China on land.

Judging by other endeavours like the F-35, that has been seen as overpriced and underperforming, there is the issue that the numbers being built will exceed what is needed as a trend towards unmanned aircraft is prevailing. With regards to aircraft carriers, William Hartung says that aircraft carriers are extremely expensive and increasingly vulnerable and that this makes them a very poor investment.

No need to be reminded of Admiral Erich Raeder who gave priority to the construction of big ships like the Bismark, ship that ended up being sank no long after a naval encounter. Karl Dönitz asked for more U-Boots, but Admiral Raeder had other ideas. After a major encounter, the surface fleet with its expensive ships could not play a major role and by the time Karl Dönitz became Admiral crucial had been lost because Germany did not have enough U-Boots to take advantage of a temporary window of opportunity. This risk is ever present when it comes to weaponry. By the time the Eurofighter became available it was already outdated. Mechanical failures and delays have the F-35 not a very good choice.

In recent months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany was planning to invest more than 230 billion Euro to beef-up German Armed Forces and among his plans was the acquisition of F-35 aircraft. While the now President of the European Commision Ursula von der Leyen - was then German Defense Minister - Germany had big issues with the F-35. At one point, only a few of all F-35 were actually fit for flying. Having to depend of supplies provided by foreign providers is always an issue. Something similar happenend when Britain launched its two newest aircraft carriers going to sea without fix wing aircraft. There were problems of either availability or of lack of maintenance parts.

If far too many aircraft are built that end up being obsolete even before they leave the factories, it all becomes a massive waste. This is why with American military expenditure at Pentagon level set to reach 850 billion US Dollars in 2024, William Hartung believes that the time is long overdue for a more realistic strategy and more disciplined spending priorities. 

The danger is that almost always greed takes precedence over sound decision making and that there are always excuses to over spend.


   




Friday, 9 April 2021

Ursula von der Leyen muss weg

 

To say that Ursula von der Leyen was incompetent as German Defense Secretary and has been incompetent as appointed President of the European Commission would be a gross understatement.

She started by making a mess in Northern Ireland and in the Republic of Ireland by going against established EU policies and later backtracking when she was bombarded with criticisms, including criticisms expressed by the German mass media. Shge managed to unite Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland against her.

With regards to the fight against Covid-19, she hasn't been on top of her brief and has stood paralized while EU countries stopped acting as EU countries and went against each other. Austria is leading a group of six EU countries that want to have access to Russian vaccines and Germany has now joined them while France and others remain stuck with rising number of infections, hospitals that cannot cope with the number of cases and rising deaths leading to further quarentine measures.

The latest chapter was the embarrassment during a meeting in Turkey. She allowed herself to be sidelines and later complained saying that she had been sidelined. She doesn't have the guts to act on the spot. Is she really the President of the European Commission? If she is the President of the European Commission she should start acting as the President of the European Commission. If she doesn't have what it takes to be the boss, she should put herself aside and allow somebody else to be the boss.

The office of President of the European Commission is being downgraded, the EU project is being downgraded, and her former boss Angela Merkel is doing no better. Hesitation, gigantic errors of judgment, followed by meaningless apologies that give way to more hesitation, more gigantic errors of judgment, followed by more meaningless apologies. Angela Merkel no longer has what it takes to be leader and voters are turning against CDU/CSU across Germany, election after election. Time for change, but what will replace them? The very authority of the German Chancellor as now former party leader - she had to resign the leadership of CDU to remain in power until the next German Federal Election - is being challenged by members of her own party. She had to come out and threaten members of her own party that were found working with Alternative fur Deutschland in several regions.

To sum up, a mess in Germany and a mess in the European Union. 


Wednesday, 8 January 2020

Ursula von der Leyen: Desperate trip to London.

Ursula von der Leyen: Desperate trip to London

Ursula von der Leyen (aka Angela Merkel) is very much against the wall. She barely managed to win the 2017 Federal Election. She desperately tried to form a coalition with FPD and Grünen. She failed. She ended up agreeing a coalition of last resort with SPD that didn't want a coalition with her after losing support.

By the same time, CDU/CSU lost in Brandenburg, Bavaria, Saxony and Hesse and it was revealed that CDU representatives were working together with AfD at local level.

As if this wasn't enough, she had to resign the leadership of CDU to persuade her how political party to allow her to continue. Although on the surface this is about the relationship between EU and UK, it is in fact about the political survival of Angela Merkel now that SPO's newly elected leaders are asking for more concessions at a time when Germany is being forced to increase contributions to EU.

Germany desperately needs a deal to try and soften the blow of Brexit on the German economy. Ursula von der Leyen was in fact appointed by Angela Merkel as she was the only candidate on the ballot for President of the EU Commission in a battle of wills between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. The outome of the British General Election only serve to confirm German fears. It must be noted that after the German Federal Election, AfD is represented in the Bundestag and in every single of the 16 state parliaments in Germany. This is a crucial moment for Germany.

Ursula von der Leyen is playing for Angela Merkel using the EU as a shield to delay Brexit.