Argentina: The Winds of Change
President Javier Milei finds himself talking about the "Winds of Change" and winds there are many when it comes to the South Atlantic on the way to Antarctica.
What did not happen in 1982 under a Military Junta could happen under a democratically elected President. Britain was not in the best position in 1982, but Britain is in a much worse position in 2026 and we still have not seen the numbers that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, former Secretary for Defense John Healey, is going to provide. It will not be nice. Mr Healey might have even less monies for Defense than the monies he was offered by Rachel Reeves and the reason he resigned his post as Secretary for Defense. What is essential or not essential in terms of training is a debatable subject. Argentina just announced that it will be new military installations that will give Argentina better access to Falkland Islands, and Falkland Islands are not the only islands under British control in the South Atlantic. In 1982, Britain was not caught up with a conflict in Europe for which it is not well prepared. President Trump has been found laughing about British military power and he might not offer Britain any support should there be a conflict, once again, in the South Atlantic.
I would say that for Britain things are much worse than they ever were in 1982. Equipment that Britain had and that made the difference in a conflict that happened more than 40 years ago has not been updated nor replaced.
Argentina does not need military forces on mainland Argentina for internal puposes or as a precaution because of strained relationships with Chile at the time when the invasion happened. President Allende did support Margaret Thatcher and Chilean support in 1982 was for Britain a sine qua non. President Kast, shares President Milei´s ideology and so that President Trump that is visibly involved in developing American influence in Latin America.
So things have changed exponentially and not in a favourable way for Britain.
The USA, and not just those who support President Trump, have good reasons to support Argentina. As members of the American Administration stated very openly, Europe is no longer a priority. China is. So countries that are closer to the USA, where China has been playing an ever greater role, are also a priority. With Venezuela "under control", Panama controls the passage between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which is a crossing of fundamental strategic importance for the USA - a passage that was built by the USA.
So where is Britain in all this? What is happening with the geopolitical agenda? What is happening with trade? Britain has a limited presence in Antarctica, but so do other countries. Undoubtedly, British Islands in the South Atlantic are relevant as a gate to Antarctica. For Argentina, it is obviously a bonus. It is about asserting Argentinian influence. This is for Argentina a James Monroe Moment. Just imagine what it would mean for the Argentinian peoples and for President Milei himself. Imagine what it would mean to be seen as the Argentinian President that "recovered the South Atlantic Islands".
So we keep following developments. This could be the ultimate slap on the face of Britain. So President Trump is using it. "You did not help me with Iran. I would not help you in the South Atlantic."
In Brazil, President Lula da Silva is campaigning for a presidential election in which the son of the now former President Bolsonaro is standing, but with or without a Bolsonaro as Brazilian President, the winds of change are not blowing in favour of Britain.
