Here came the budget: Main target NHS and Second target the economy and particularly interest rates and growth.

The general thinking is that the Labour government will inflict pain earlier with the hope that near the next General Election the numbers will be much better to produce good feelings amongst voters. But this is a gamble by a government that publicly stated that if they had not inherited interest rates that were already going down the present announcements about borrowing could not have been made. 

Everything is based on the presumption that the economy will improve, that interest rates will go down and that repaying the borrowing will become easier. Another factor is promised improvements of the NHS. If the economy does not improve and if improvements promised regarding the NHS are not delivered then this would be a double political wammy that could bring down the present government at the next General Election.

The hope is that no crise like the Covid Pandemic or the energy crise generated by sanctions implemented against the Russian Federation or anything of the sort happens from now until the next General Election. Anything that would require much more borrowing and generate emergency conditions, negatively affecting. the economy, is not welcome. 

Et ceteris paribus? All other things being equal? Expecting that nothing will happen along the way that could change or derail present plans is a very negligent attitude. Things are bound to change. There are crucial ongoing conflicts and the seeds for more conflicts are being planted.

Now, lets have a look at potential trading partners. What is the situation in Europe? What is the situation in the Americas? What is the situation in Africa and Oceania? What is the situation regarding new players that are rising and increasing mutual cooperation?

The belief that new global associations will remain focused on the East and will not spread towards the West is extremely naive. We now live not in a bipolar world. We live in a multipolar world. In which direction the Americas, Africa, and Oceania will go is not a given. But present trends indicate that BRICS is making inroads. Those joining BRICS happen to be the most populous countries in the world. They also happen to be those which tend to have more resources in terms of raw materials. 

Founding countries? Russian Federation, China, India and Brazil. While the main Western countries have been involved in a rising number of conflicts, China has been spreading financially and economically across key regions of the world. The impopularity of the Western approach when dealing with conflicts is spreading and such impopularity does not benefit Western countries. China has not been involved in any major conflict. In fact, it is gathering more and more influence in countries that are far away from China.

Suella Braverman: Asset or Liability? There are profiles and profiles

 

Suella Braverman: Asset or Liability? Never try to outshine your boss.

The news that 10 Downing Street has not supported what was said by the Home Secretary in a controversial article might tell you that the clock is ticking for Suella Braverman. And the word 'controversial' perfectly describes Suella Braverman that has over-stepped the mark not once, but several times. The role of Home Secretary can be a poison chalice for many reasons, without adding what Suella Braverman has been adding in recent days. Her remarks about 'homelessness being a lifestyle choice' left many, from all political persuasions, scratching their heads in disbelief. She has appeared as insensitive, careless and extremely divisive. Not the ingredients for a country that faces enormous divisions caused by external events and not the ingredients for a country in which a growing number of people are struggling to make ends meet.

This happens at a time when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing an uphill struggle to inspire confidence and hope not just across the country, but also inside his own Cabinet and his own political party, with cabinet ministers resigning and saying that they will not be standing at the next General Election and others not willing to stand because they feel that they will face a disastrous defeat, with MPs being forced to resign and/or being deprived of the party whip due to wide range of scandals, the Conservative Party is not in good shape. You can try to raise your profile, but you might not be doing it for the right reasons and/or in the right way.

When it comes to the media, it feels that a growing number of MPs and former MPs have been joining GB News and this includes a former Prime Minister, a former Cabinet Minister and the present Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party. Is there enough space to include Suella Braverman as television presenter? With her statements, she has even surpassed Nigel Farage and this is an act hard to follow. 

Thirteen years is perhaps too long a time for a political party to stay in power without suffering the natural consequences. Too many excesses, too many scandals, too much division. Too much contempt for ordinary people and for ordinary peoples' needs and realities.

Next year, there are major electoral contests: the General Election and the Greater London Assembly Elections, elections of the devolved authorities in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The outcome of these elections is by no means guaranteed. The two major political parties have crisis of their own to deal with. Life has not been easy for a growing number of ordinary people and political uncertainties threaten to make life even harder. The time of moderate prices and predictability is over. 

 

The Money Bubble: Why politicians are completely out of touch with peoples' everyday realities

When peoples are more familiar with spreadsheets that they are familiar with ordinary people bad things happen. Look around the cabinet. What do you see? They don't have a clue about what it takes to live the life of ordinary individuals that always have be chasing rabbits, always living with the uncertainty of being able or not being able to pay bills.

Because they are totally out of touch with realities of John Smith and Mrs Smith they go around talking about policies that are good for posturing and self-adulation instead of getting to grip with the real needs of those they supposedly stand to represent. By elections will be lost, local elections will be lost and ultimately a General Election will be lost. If you trully believe that falling into desperate situations and having to live on the streets is a 'lifestyle choice' then nothing else needs to be said about how out of touch you are.

Housing lists for social accommodation get longer and longer, the cost of rented accommodation is beyond most peoples' means as are unaffordable mortgages. Then you decide to throw people a few bones to supposedly allow them to cope with rising utility bills and consider that by doing so you are some kind of Robin Hood. No wonder qualified and newly qualified teachers are leaving the profession. They are supposed to be employed to teach and end up having to cope with worsening social situations in the classroom.

I can't wait to see a new General Election. I want everybody to get in touch with reality. As I have stated in many articles, I keep asking about the Dream. What is the Dream? All we get is procrastination, posturing, self-adulation and false promises.

Coming to the issue of migration and processing of applications, is there a backlog when dealing with applications that leads to all kind of irregularities? Don't have enough staff working at the Home Office? What are you waiting for? When will you employ enough staff to deal with the backlog when things get worse and worse? If you don't have the will to do what needs to be done, step aside and allow somebody else to do it.

Conservative Party: When a company goes into administration, we know the final chapter

 

The banner does not reflect reality. In fact, recent decisions made by Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister point in exactly the opposite direction.

There are no long-term decisions. In fact, you cannot trust that what is announced as a long-term decision will last long enough. In terms of a brighter future, all the promises about a brighter future cannot balance what is a disastrous present.

The country is pawned to the hilt and we worry about the day when investors will stop buying bonds if the rates paid for bonds are not dramatically raised, thus making public borrowing practically unpayable.

In fact, every indicator signals impending doom. Can you trust the promises made by what is a de-facto caretaker unelected Prime Minister? At this point in time, Rishi Sunak shares with the Liberal Democrats one fundamental characteristic. He can promise anything because he will not be around to deliver whatever he promises. In the present state of affairs, May 2024 seems - painfully - to be a long way away. His Chancellor of the Exchequer - Jeremy Hunt MP - will no longer be around either since he himself has said that he will not be standing in 2024. Investors will surely take notice of what is happening in British politics since a change of managers will surely mean a change of management style.

Britain needs clarity. Britain needs to know where it stands. Rather late, the Prime Minister is now talking about implementing the same kind of tax measures that he rejected when he was competing with now former Prime Minister Liz Truss. One could see that there were two Party Conferences. One was the official Party Conference and the other was the Fringe Party Conference. Some did not bother to attend either of them. Such is the state of disarray. 

In more than one way, seeking some kind of relevance in geopolitics has been a diversion. Foreign powers - friends and foes - who follow very closely what is happening in the United Kingdom know better. Whatever is agreed today accounts for very little. Long-term decisions? The UK political cycle is pretty short and makes practically impossible to have long term policies since the next Parliament can choose at will not to implement what the previous Parliament approved or supported.

The UK goverment that he presides spoke about foreign deals with huge markets and promised a brilliant future for the British economy. It is like writing on water. There are no guarantees whatsoever that colourful and impressive speeches will be followed by real achievements. May 2024, an important month on the British political calendar. If what happened in a series of by-elections is translated into a real General Election, not even a space in Madame Tussauds could be guaranteed.

The Conservative Party has broken a new record. A bit more than a decade in power and at least 5 Prime Ministers.     

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt not standing as MP in 2024?

 

The political life of an administration is directly linked to two people: The Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The role played by Jeremy Hunt in the Conservative administration is a major role. We are a few months away of a crucial General Election and the role of the Chancellor of the Exchequer as main actor when it comes to implement economic policy can make or break a government long before a General Election. When Jeremy Hunt indicates that he might leave the Cabinet even before the General Election and/or that he will not be standing as Member of Parliament in 2024 sends shockwaves. He is basically cutting the branch of the tree on which British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is standing. Jeremy Hunt's calculations about not wanting to end his career with an electoral defeat show how little he trusts his own position and most importantly shows that he does not believe that there is going to be a Conservative government after the General Election. This is devastating. 

It must be said that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has of recent spent a lot of time trying to fix the rest of the world and paying little attention to what is happening in Britain. Money is flocking away from Britain and when it came to a major project the word 'cancellation' was supposed to be countered with veiled announcement about hypothetical transport projects that have not even been considered. The Prime Minister cancelled a project that was already underway and all the work done at a cost of billions of Pound is therefore abandoned. All the monies already invested and all the jobs that were generated are going to be thrown into the bin to be classified as yet more waste. We tried to sweeten the pill by promising a Paradise made up of new transport projects that he knows that he will not be able to deliver because he might not be able to stay as Prime Minister beyond the next General Election. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak put an end to something real and promised thin air in exchange.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has disarmed Britain by sending abroad equipment and resources that cannot be easily replaced. For many years, the British Armed Forces have been disadvantaged and even when it came to pay in the public budget the British Armed Force came last. On the one hand, you see speeches full of aggressive language and on the other hand you see the realities of the British Armed Forces. 

Education? Transport? Health? Public Safety? Immigration? When we should see improvements we see undeliverable promises and scandals of all sorts. 

But one has to be fair and in fairness he could not do more because of the realities of the Conservative Party that ended up with a Prime Minister that was not elected by the Electorate and was not even elected by voting members of the Conservative Party. He couldn't possibly be a strong Prime Minister because he has no power base apart from the support he got as Member of Parliament. The fact that none other than his own Chancellor of the Exchequer is throwing the towel tells you that it is game over. In the end, where are the heavyweights of the Conservative Party?

We have got a Secretary for Defence - Grant Shapps - that believes that being the descendant of people who suffered persecution in Europe 70 or so years ago is a crucially important qualification to be Secretary for Defence. Never mind if he does not possess any specific qualification for the post as man in charge of dealing with the defense of the Realm. Where are the heavyweights? The real knower - Ben Wallace MP - not only resigned his post as Secretary for Defence. Ben Wallace MP also announced that he will not be standing for re-election in 2024.

We see cancellations, resignations and lack of expertise that blended with a profound lack of self-confidence are a perfect recipe for disaster.

   

UK: Smaller parties will not stand aside, even if it means division

What has become ostensibly clear is that smaller parties will not stand aside even if it means taking away votes from the Conservative Party. In years past, they would abstain. Not anymore. They believe that the Conservative Party has turned its back on Conservative Values and that they deserve to be punished.

Is Northern Ireland an integral part of the United Kingdom? The agreements reached by the Conservative government mean a de-facto separation of Northern Ireland that will continue under EU rule.

Has the government dealt with illegal migration? Absolutely not. It has come to the point when legal applicants seem to have the same rights as illegal immigrants.

Has the government dealt with environmental issues effectively? Absolutely not. The green belts continue to be built over and square kilometres of the green belts will be covered with concrete.

Local economies in the most deprived areas - especially in coastal towns - have been decimated firstly by COVID measures and secondly now by illegal migrants housed in hotels and community centres. Even when the weather was fair and plenty of people were willing to visit coastal towns and invest in their economies, it would be impossible to visit because accommodation that could be used for visitors is now used to house male illegal migrants.

To all accounts, the Conservative Party has failed to deliver on the environment, on migration, and on sovereignty. UK is not longer a souvereign country. So this is why smaller parties that have a nationalist agenda will also be campaigning against the Conservative Party.

When it comes to choosing candidates for the London Assembly, the Conservative Party is as divided as ever and there are those who say that all candidates now on the shortlist don't have a political profile and don't have the political experience to step up to the challenge. Some say this is the equivalent of standing paper candidates and defeat is the only possible outome. As the remaining contenders themselves stated during a husting in Central London, winning London is very much needed to have a chance of winning the next General Election. If this is the case, the outcome of the 2024 General Election is a given and it means total defeat if the Conservative Party manages to lose more local elections (already lost quite a few authorities) and several Parliamentary seats. The present feud at national level is also influencing the choice of candidates for the London Elections. We hear talk about teams - Team Sunak, Team Johnson. 

Somebody suggested that there are good reasons to create two independent Conservative Parties so that people really know what the political party they choose really stands for. 

Conservative Party: the gloves are off, but it is not about Labour. It is Conservative against Real Conservative

Any hope of reconciliation is very much a lost cause. If anything, the fight goes on. This is not a fight that started with Boris Jonhson's premiership. This started a long time ago. It is an ongoing war for the soul of the Conservative Party fought by people who have very little in common. Listening to Edwina Currie, you can hear loud and clear an outspoken campaigner for globalisation and total rejection of nationalist values. She explicitly said that she despises anything labelled national or nationalism. Her hatred directed against Boris Johnson came up loud and clear. There is not one Conservative Party. There are several Conservative Parties with opposite ideas regarding national policies and foreign policies.

I reckon this conflict within the Conservative Party trumps everything else. In this war, there will be no prisoners. They sense that this battle must be fought even when the price of infighting is the loss of the next General Election. Such is the animosity that reigns supreme within the Conservative Party. They hate each other a lot more than they could possibly hate political opponents from outside the Conservative Party.

If the issue is infighting amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party - namely between Members of Parliament - the paradox is that a catastrophic electoral defeat could be benefiticial for the Conservative Party. 

If the Conservative Party is defeated in two by-elections, what party line voters are against? Are they against the Conservative Party per say or are they against the fact that for many the Conservative Party is no longer Conservative? Are voters hungry for a real Conservative Party? This is why any victory for an alternative party should be brought into question. Moreover, these are by-elections. We know that by-elections can be seen as punishment, a way to push a political party to stick to its promises. Voters know that without or without this by-elections the Conservative Party will still be in power until 2024 and therefore they want to send a message to Rishi Sunak to force him to abandon 'non-Conservative policies'.

Anger is growing against Policing. Ordinary britons are angry because the government seems to have allowed protesters to get away with murder. Change in laws means that legal migrants have now the same status as illegal migrants. This is an absurdity because it goes against the official line about countering, stopping, illigal migration, and many are fuming about it. The Prime Minister said, stated, promised, that under his watch illegal migration would come to a halt. It has not. And on top of that, illegal migrants are allowed to stay in Britain and even given accommodation and welfare benefits.

Jeremy Corbyn: No way back, says Starmer

 

Keir Starmer stated today what right now seems the obvious course of action: Jeremy Corbyn will not be allowed to stand as a Labour candidate. This is the statement today February 15th 2023.

What brought Jeremy Corbyn down was not Anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, but Jeremy Corby's stances on Palestine and the cause of the people of Palestine. 

Jeremy Corbyn was brought down because of issues that very much divide the people of Israel. Jeremy Corbyn was also targetted because of his geopolitical views and because his views on economics. No doubts about that. Now, it is up to those who genuinely support Jeremy Corbyn's views to remain or not to remain as Labour Party members and this is something Labour Party members and voters will have to consider looking forward to the 2024 Parliamentary Election. There is no guarantees either in terms of Keir Starmer being the Labour Party Prime Ministerial candidate in 2024. Keir Starmer was brought in to replace Jeremy Corbyn and now that Jeremy Corbyn is out, why should Keir Starmer remain as leader? This is a case that Keir Starmer will have to make himself and especially when he is at odds with the trade union movement that very much finances the Labour Party.

For a man that does not dare to publicly define what a woman is, things will not be easy as another leader who came up with unsavoury stances on sexuality came to realise. Nicola Sturgeon said that 'the issue regarding transgender and transexuality was not the issue that broke the camel's back.' Well, Nicola Sturgeon in on the way out and perhaps not just because of 'the issue that didn't break the came's back'. As Nicola Sturgeon recognized, Scotland is not a united country and the SNP is not a united party and remaining as SNP leader was not a viable proposition as she defined herself as a very divisive leader.

Having stated that she has campaigned from a very early age for Scottish Independence, she clearly stated that remaining as First Minister would only undermine the cause for independence as more and more people will turn against her because of issues that are not related to Scottish Independence. She clearly stated that the longer she stays as First Minister politics will turn to be more about personalities than about a proper debate.

Failings in terms of governance - the state of the Scottish NHS comes to mind - and controversial policies that are not supported by members of her own party - might have sealed her political fate.

And talking about fate, the Church of England is under assault. Militant Homosexuals are trying to force the Church of England to abandon Christian values in favour of political correctness and this is proving to be extremely corrosive. 

From media reports: 

The Archbishop of Canterbury, the Most Rev Justin Welby has spoken of being "threatened with parliamentary action" in an attempt to "force same-sex marriage" into the Church of England.

He was speaking at the global Anglican Consultative Council meeting in Ghana.

It comes after reforms within the church allowing the blessing of same-sex couples in civil partnerships.

The change was made after a motion was passed by the General Synod, the church's legislative body, this month.

Its position on gay marriage will not change and same-sex couples will still be unable to marry in church.

The Telegraph reports Mr Welby met with MPs at the House of Commons last month, and pushed back on further changes to its status on same-sex marriage.

Speaking ahead of the changes, broadcaster Sandi Toksvig said a meeting in January with the archbishop, last month was "very disappointing".

Ms Toksvig is a high-profile campaigner on LGBT+ issues, and although not a member of the church, she told the BBC she spoke out because she felt the impact of the message being sent out by the bishops was having an impact far beyond the Church.

The changes in the church have been unpalatable to some conservatives, but also fall well short of what many progressives had wanted.

Giving the presidential address on Sunday, Mr Welby said "many" members of the General Synod have "dismissed" his concerns about recent reforms.

• Sandi Toksvig: I can't let the Church hurt LGBT people
• Church of England backs plans to bless gay couples

He told those at the meeting, held in the Ghanian capital Accra "rules about sexuality in the Church of England" have been tabled for discussion as a "result" of growing atheism in the UK.

The archbishop said in the global north, Christian values of "community and mutual responsibility" have been "almost eliminated" in favour of "individualism".

Undoubtedly, Britain is in a state of flux at every level and there is an abundance of examples showing that the United Kingdom is a very disunited Kingdom. It comes as no surprise that more and more people will be tempted to take matters into their own hands to defend what they believe in and this is certainly a recipe for more and more confrontation.

Triple Lock and Pensions: Nothing is guaranteed

 

The subject of state pensions will surely cause global warming

The Conservative/Liberal Coalition set out the triple lock aimed at protecting the value of state pensions and in 2019 the Conservative Party Manifesto stated that for the duration of the present Parliament the triple lock would be maintained - although momentarily, during the pandemic, the triple lock was suspended and due to be restored in April 2023.

The pension is supposed to increase every year depending on which of the following items is highest:

1) inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Prices Index) 2) average wage increase or 3) 2.5%

This was before the present economic environment in which inflation shot upwards and is now above 10%. The present goverment led by Rishi Sunak will have to make a fundamental decision in terms of keeping the triple lock at least until the next General Election or abandoning the triple lock. 

In a country in which the average age of the population is rising, telling voters that the government is going to abandon the triple lock is not a vote winner. There are also plans to postpone the age of retirement. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will have to make a statement on plans for tax and spending. Britain has one of the lowest state pensions when compared to other Western countries. and given present rates of inflation the value of state pensions is being eroded on a daily basis.

If the triple lock is abandoned, the value of state pensions will purely and simply collapse.

 

Countdown: Rishi Sunak becomes British Prime Minister

 

Rishi Sunak becomes British Prime Minister and this in itself is a bit like a Christian entering the Roman Colloseum to be eaten by lions.

Given the fate of his precedecessors in recent times, the newly elected Prime Minister is well advised to keep his friends close and his enemies closer.

Perhaps this is the idea of integrating his Cabinet with people from various sides of the political map of the Conservative Party.

Hopefully, his political honeymoon will last longer but, as always, in British politics 24 hours seem like an eternity and he is very much aware that he is cruising along very treacherous waters.

It has been well established that when the electorate votes, the electorate votes for a particular political party and not for an individual. Boris Johson managed to get a majority of more than 80 seats in the House of Commons and this, at least theoretically, would give him enough room to maneuver. Having said that, with such a majority neither Boris Johnson nor Liz Truss managed to survive. The issue is then not British voters as a whole, but loyalties within the Conservative Party. For many, having avoided a General Election until now is a blessing as many risked having their seats go up in smoke if a General Election took place in the present circumstances.

The next hurdle is January 2023, month when travelling fares are usually adjusted according to rate of inflation. The British government managed to alley fears about utility rates rises until April 2023, but it cannot go on providing lifeboats if inflation keeps going up. Although TFL is said to have been thinking about a 4% fares rise, TFL has no control of other areas of public transport. The present inflation rates is above 10%. Rises can only be avoided with bigger subsidies and in the end no one wins because bigger subsidies are paid with borrowed monies. If we try to avoid borrowing then we have to think about higher taxes or budget cuts.

Lizz Truss bet on lower taxes as a way of boosting economic activity. Rishi Sunak campaigned to avoid tax cuts and therefore will have to get better results to avoid entering a cycle of higher taxes and falling tax receipts that could ultimately push the country towards austerity budgets.

Inflation is eating away public budgets. If this goes on, very soon public administration bodies, local and regional authorities will ran out of money and will be unable to maintain service levels.

Labour Party: Keir Starmer cannot have the cake and eat it?

So Keir Starmer says that Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic. Well, why did he suspend Jeremy Corbyn in the first place? Has this statement have something to do with MPs talking about leaving the Labour Party and becoming independents? He wanted the Leadership and used the anti-Semitism argument to push Jeremy Corbyn aside. Now, he realises that he could become the Leader of a political party that could have less MPs than the SNP. The Labour Party lost MPs because of the Brexit argument. After that, the Labour Party lost much of its heartland MPs. If Keir Starmer cannot bring the Labour Party together, the next General Election would be a walkover. It is not the first time the Labour Party finds itself facing a political divorce and the outcome could be very similar.

If after the verdict of the verdict on anti-Semitism blaming the office of Jeremy Corbyn, Keir Starmer states that 'Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic' then the charges fall on the shoulders of those who supported Jeremy Corbyn. This is like stating that Jeremy Corbyn was a bad leader that was completely unaware of what was being done by those close to him.

If after stating the Jeremy Corbyn is not anti-Semitic Jeremy Corbyn remains suspended, then who is a bad leader? It would mean that Keir Starmer is ready and willing to sacrify innocent people. If Jeremy Corbyn's suspension is annuled then other heads would have to roll to fit the ruling according to the charges made against the office of Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn might not be willing to shoot himself in the foot by destroying his power base. Either way, it would mean admitting that his political career is over because this is exactly the outcome that awaits him if he turns against his own supporters.

This is a lose-lose situation for both Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer. A Leadership Election would have to be called to bring in other alternatives and this includes somebody with a profile high enough to stand up in a General Election and to solve the Labour Party's internal problems.

Brexit: General Election and what afterwards?

Brexit: General Election and what afterwards?

December 13 is the day but what will be the political landscape then? There are all kinds of assumptions but what will be the real picture? After the events of the last three years, nothing is guaranteed.

Whether we are dealing with national politics or geopolitics, the outcome is uncertain.  Both main political parties have been fractured by a more than three-years-struggle and this is not just about internal politics. The whole country has been affected and this includes the Supreme Court. Disappointment has been replaced with cynical attitudes. 

The first question to ask is: what will be the turnout in this General Election? The weather is the least of all concerns. Electoral margins will be an issue and the political platforms of candidates standing will be another issue because of divided allegiances that could alter the outcome of the General Election.

What was the thinking behind the votes of Members of Parliament that perfectly knew that a General Election could mean the loss of their seats? What was the thinking behind the votes of Members of Parliament that not necessarily agree with the political agendas of their own political parties? What was the thinking behind the votes of Members of Parliament for whom the chances of returning to the House of Commons are remote? Yesterday, the last interventions of Members of Parliament like Anna Soubry and Michael Gapes show the level of dispair after the realization that their political futures could effectively be coming to and. At the last minute, 10 out of 21 Conservative MPs that lost the whip were returned to the fold.

This General Election is being fought inside and outside political parties.

 

    

Brexit: Isolated as the only political party not supporting a General Election, Labour will vote for General Election

Brexit: Isolated as the only political party not supporting a General Election, Labour will vote for General Election

Finally, today, the House of Commons will debate about a General Election and vote for a General Election, ending years of uncertainty and rising tensions inside the Houses of Parliament and on the streets of Britain.

No milkshakes this time. No verbal abuse nor threats. Just ballots and Democracy as it should have been for the very beginning.

We awair with expectation today's debates in the House of Commons. 

Brexit: Parliament is playing a very dangerous game, an expensive game

Brexit: Parliament is playing a very dangerous game, an expensive game

When Anna Soubry rose in the House of Commons the game was self-evident. Why not a General Election? For the same reasons that the Labour Party doesn't want a General Election. Plagued by internal conflicts and divisions, scandals, it remains to be seen if the Labour Party is not actually the big loser in the skirmishes linked to Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn knows that this could well be the end of his political career. After all that is happening in the Labour Party, losing a General Election means goodbye to the Leadership of the Labour Party and a reshuffle that will be the end of the road for John McDonnell and others that will be blamed for the context in which many Labour MPs left to become Independents and even joined the Liberal Democrats. For some Labour MPs, all the threats will mean very little either because their majorities look unassailable or simply because after decades in politics they are heading for retirement. For other Labour MPs, the risk of their careers being ended by a General Election is very real and therefore they will drag their feet for as long as it is possible to do so. Other Labour MPs see the defeat of the Labour Party and in particular of Jeremy Corbyn as the best opportunity they have to rebuild the Labour Party. Losing an election would be for them a price worth paying 

For the Liberal Democrats, it is the kind of opportunity that they have been looking for for a vary long time. They jumped at the chance of being in government and this is why they were eager to join the Conservative Party in a coalition under the Leadership of David Cameron. In fact, some Labour MPs asked the Liberal Democrats today if they were willing to join the Conservatives in a coalition if the outcome of a General Election is once again a hung Parliament. There is the suspicion that this is exactly what the Leadership of the Liberal Democrats is looking for as several of them - including its present Leader - were in government with the Conservatives. The main difficulty is that the present Liberal Democratic Party was joined by Labour MPs and Conservative MPs and they would be in a very awkward situation.

For those like Chuka Umunna, former Labour MP for Streatham, to leave the Labour Party was a jump into the unknown. Then came the option of joining another political grouping with former Labour MPs and former Conservative MPs called Change UK. But after a dramatic failure in the European Parliament Elections, Chuka Umunna instinctively knew that the only alternative was to join the Liberal Democrats to stand a chance to try to save his political career. In a General Election, he wouldn't stand in Streatham and therefore he would be standing in the City. He secured his position as Liberal Democrat Speaker on Economic Affairs but, would he be willing to be part of a coalition with the Conservatives? For Conservatives who left the Conservative Party and joined the Liberal Democratic Party to see themselves as part of a coalition with the Conservatives would be a paradox and a very uncomfortable position to be in.

But before we can assume that Labour MPs and Conservative MPs who joined the Liberal Democrats would be re-elected but this time as Liberal Democrat MPs, we need to look at what is happening right now. The European Union suggested that they would agree to an extension - that they called a flexible extension - to allow the UK to finalize all legislative processses including the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement agreed with Prime Minister Boris Johnson but the agreement for a flexible extension comes with conditions attached and they are waiting for the House of Commons to make a decision that the House of Commons is not willing to make. The House of Commons hasn't approved the Deal, the House of Commons doesn't want a second Referendum and the House of Commons doesn't want a General Election. What would then be the point of granting an extension - or even a flexible extension? 

Will the EU deny the United Kingdom an extension at the last minute because the House of Commons cannot agree the way forward? It has been reported that tomorrow, a new motion will be put forward that would make possible to have a General Election despite the Fixed Term Parliament Act that requires a two-third majority of all 650 seats of the House of Commons including the seats that have not been occupied by Sinn Fein/IRA. The Speaker and other officials despite being MPs don't vote. For this reason, in order to have the required number of votes - according to the Fixed Term Parliament Act - a vast number of Labour MPs would have to support the motion. Tomorrow, would be decision time in the House of Commons. Would this be the end of the stalemate?

 

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn's only alternative to prevent the disintegration of the Labour Party is a Referendum

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn's only alternative to prevent the disintegration of the Labour Party is a Referendum

Jeremy Corbyn has rejected a General Election three times while asking for a General Election more than 50 times. Why? It doesn't escape public attention the flow of Labour MPs leaving the Labour Party because of anti-Semitism, harassment and the risk of deselection. 

On the same day of the start of the Labour Party Conference in Brighton, there was an attempt to get rid of Labour's Deputy Leader Tom Watson. Later on, there were dramatic changes at Labour Central Office with Jeremy Corbyn's supporters being replaced with John McDonnell's supporters. Not only that. Just a few day, key members of the cabinet spoke for Remain while Jeremy Corbyn was nowhere to be seen.

He announced a three-line whip and 19 Labour MPs supported the Deal proposed by the Conservative government. Now, it is reported that faced with possibility of a motion for General Election on Monday, Jeremy Corbyn is asking Labour MPs not to support it. There deselection processes south of the border and north of the border. And the issue of anti-Semitism has not gone away. Some of his key MPs even joined the Liberal Democrats. 

Jeremy Corbyn and others like to talk about chaos in the Conservative Party but looking at what has been going on in the Labour Party I would say that they situation is a lot worse in the Labour Party.

The great benefitiaries are the Conservative Party as party for Leave and the Liberal Democrats as party for Remain. They are the only two parties that stand to be net winners in a General Election. The Labour Party performed badly in the European Elections and there is the danger that Labour could become the third party in a General Election.

Vince Cable spoke about the creation of a centrist political party. The fact that Conservative MPs and Labour MPs have joined the Liberal Democrats would be a step in what Vince Cable called a new alternative. The creation of a non-Marxist alternative in British politics could be the sign of things to come.

When you go down to local level, Labour grassroots have been turning against local authorities controlled by the Labour Party accussing them of being the drivers of gentrification and ethnic cleansing. The next stage would be a challenge to Labour hegemony at local authority level. If there is a General Election in December, what will happen in the London Election? Siobhan Benita - former independent Mayoral Candidate will be standing for the Liberal Democrats. Shaun Bailey will be standing for the Conservatives. Will Sadiq Khan survive? At constituency level, with processes of deselection of local MPs, the outcome for the Labour Party is less than certain.

  

Labour's true colours: Margaret Beckett

Labour's true colours: Margaret Beckett

Margaret Beckett

We are so focused on Jeremy Corbyn that we have perhaps missed what Margaret Beckett, a veteran Labour MP, wrote for all to see. She advised Labour MPs to reject any deal that Prime Minister Boris Johnson agrees. 

This is what defines Labour: Opposition for opposition sake. Not what benefits the country but what she things would benefit Labour's electoral chances. Not the well-being of Britain but the selfish attitude of profesional politicians who couldn't care less about Britain.

And it is precisely such attitude that really and trully damages her party's electoral chances. The Liberal Democrats have stated and stated over and over again that they want to Remain and they will campaign in a General Election to Remain. The Conservative Party's position is to Leave on October 31, Deal or No Deal.

On top of this there is a group of policians the left either the Labour |Party or the Conservative Party that find themselves in the wildnerness as Independents or as members of meaningless political parties with very limited or non-existing chances of getting back to the House of Commons if a General Election was called.

The SNP has no intention of doing anything that could benefit Britain. Their agenda is the partition of Britain. They have said it over and over again and in spite of having declared itself a non-British political party they continue to act as a hurdle in the House of Commons. So the worst the political crisis, the happier the SNP becomes.

Can we call this Parliament a representative Parliament? Representative of what? Just a few hours ago, the Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary said that the Liberal Democrats were Taliban. Chucka Ummuna, the rising Labour Party star that turned against the Labour Party, has become the most poisonous enemy of his former friends. And what about the rebel Anne Soubry? Well, she cross the Conservative Party and became independent to form a group with former Conservative and Labour MPs only to be betrayed and left in no man's land. Her fortunes changed after Change UK failed miserably in the European Parliament Elections. So once again we pose the question. Representative of what? This is the Parliament in which the Opposition ran away from a General Election proposed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson not once but several times.

My position in this matter is pretty clear and straightforward. We don't have a democratic and representative Parliament. This Parliament has devalued itself to such extent that it is moving away from the Electorate while claiming to be legitimate.

Next week, the Supreme Court will announce its verdict: Was prorogation legal or illegal? It is said that whatever the outcome, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not recall Parliament and Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II finds herself caught up in the middle. She approved prorogation and with this act declared that prorogation is legal. Funny situation to be in if the Supreme Court moves against the Monarch.

But in a country in which nothing is sacred anymore anything could happen. Former Prime Minister David Cameron broke away from tradition and revealed what should have been kept as a secret for all. time. He made revelations about his dealings with the Monarch and in a unusual move the Royal Household publicly announced its displeasure regarding the actions of David Cameron.

The decision of the Supreme Court regarding a very political matter - if it is goes against Prime Minister Boris Johnson's prorogation of Parliametn - could also mean that separation of powers that must exist in any democracy no longer exists and we could enter the worst of all worlds - a corrupt and anti-Democratic Parliament, a compromised Judiciary and an Executive forced to take action against Parliament while ignoring the Supreme Court.

All this could have been avoided if the Opposition had agreed to call a General Election. Instead, a bad situation could become a lot worse. 

July 24 2019 - Britain will have a new Prime Minister and a quite a few less Conservative MPs

July 24 2019 - Britain will have a new Prime Minister and a quite a few less Conservative MPs

On July 24th 2019, Britain will have a brand new Prime Minister and if words are to be trusted  several Conservative Members of Parliament including Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer, would be out of the Cabinet and possibly out of the Conservative Party as other prominent names  that have publicly announced that they stand to vote down a Conservative government. Not a promising beginning. But if there is any hint of a major rebellion, depending on who is elected Leader of the Conservative Party, there could not be a Parliament standing as Boris Johnson indicated that to prevent Parliament from trying to block Brexit he as Prime Minister is willing to prorogue Parliament.

Some rebel Conservatives have said that should the new Prime Minister prorogue Parliament then they would assemble outside the Houses of Parliament. In 2017, Theresa May misjudged the public mood and called a General Election. This could be the Labour Party's turn to misjudge the mood of the public. 

The outcome of recent local elections and of the European Parliament Elections are food for thought for both Labour and Conservatives. If there is a General Election in the automn  then we will know if the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party will be able to capitalize on Labour and Conservatives' troubles. I reckon that despite everything that is being said to mass media, both Labour and Conservatives will try to avoid a General Election.

Entangled in the anti-Semitism row, the Labour Party is in dire shape. About 67 Labour Party Members of the House of Lords had a letter published criticizing what some have defined as institutional anti-Semitism in the Labour Party.

Anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, Brexit. There is little time for anything else.

 

June 30 or else?

June 30 or else?

The first deadline was March 29th 2019. Then came two conditional deadlines: April 12th 2019 and May 22nd 2019. Today, the House of Commons voted to establish that June 30th 2019 is the limit and that whatever is negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May has to fit it in a period from today until June 30th 2019.

If the European Union decides tomorrow to have an extension that doesn't go beyond June 30th 2019 then such deadline would be viable. If the European Union decides that it was deadline that is beyond June 30th 2019 then what?

As tensions rise within the Conservative Party several avenues are possible:

1) The potential to force Theresa May's resignation - this would require that Theresa May accepts to resign voluntarily for the sake of the Conservative Party or a Vote of No Confidence in the Conservative Government that would lead to the fall of the Conservative Government. At this point, Her Majesty the Queen could decide to call Jeremy Corbyn and asked him to form a new government.

2) Theresa May might call a General Election which in these uncertain times would neither benefit the Conservative Party not the Labour Party and would encourage voters to choose candidates either pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit regardless of any other consideration.

3) A Referendum could take place as a pre-condition for Parliament to accept Theresa May's original deal. In such a Referendum there could be three choices: 1) To accept Theresa May's Deal 2) To reject Theresa May's Deal and go out without a Deal and 3) To cancel Brexit altogether. 

Since neither of the three options are very popular putting the decision in the hands of the Electorate would seem to be the obvious choice but there is a big BUT. If the number of people voting in the Referendum is lower than the number of people voting in the original Referendum the outcome would be seriously undermined. A lower turnout would lead to serious consequences.

Another pending issue is the European Parliament Election. If the deadline chosen goes beyond May 22nd 2019, Britain would take part in the European Parliament Elections that if Britain were to decide to leave would be rendered meaningless. At this point, the European Union could decide to prolong the mandate of present Members of the European Parliament thus altering the date of the European Parliament Elections. This doesn't seem to be a practical solution. Allowing Britain to take part in the said European Parliament Elections wouldn't be a practical solution either. President Macron has expressed his concerns that the European Parliament Elections could be used to get a higher number of anti-EU Members of the European Parliament that could block his plans for closer European Union political integration.

Brexit: I have been asked multiple times 'what will happen?' I only know that I know nothing' has been my reply.

Brexit: I have been asked multiple times 'what will happen?' I only know that I know nothing' has been my reply.

The date was going to be March 29th, 2019. Then, suddenly it became April 12th, 2019 or May 22nd 2019 depending on certain conditions. Now, we stand 5 days away  and hours away from April 12th, 2019 since no deal has been agreed. On Monday, the House of Commons - if weather allow it, since just days ago the sitting had to be suspended because water was pouring through the ceiling of the main Debating Chamber - will once again talk about the possible stages.

In the meantime, the internal struggle within the so called main political parties - Conservative and Labour - continues and there is always the possibility of more defectors leaving both Conservative and Labour due to disagreements. In essence, by Friday, April 12th, 2019, without any agreement there will be two options left: to leave without a deal or to cancel Brexit if no postponement is agreed with the European Union.

Having said, the political environment has become ever more fluid with issues involving accusations regarding Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia that are affecting the way politics in Britain works. Even when we are talking about national issues there is a geopolitical agenda that is constantly distorting what should be merely national issues.

What has become self-evident is that so mainstream political parties will be affected by the comings and goings linked to Brexit, Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia that high levels of lack of trust in Democracy in the United Kingdom.

On May 2nd 2019 there will be Local Elections. Somebody suggested that given the probabilities regarding a General Election and an European Election the country should prepare to hold three set of elections of May 23rd 2019. This means that legislation should be passed to provide funding for three different sets of elections.

David Ward: Liberal Democrats are neither Democratic nor Liberal

Whatever your views on Palestine and about what is happening in Palestine, it is inconceivable that a Prospective Member of Parliament could have been deselected and put on a trial because he has strong views on Palestine. A few days ago, Tim Farron who is reportedly a staunch Christian struggled to give a straight answer about homosexuality. This is called hypocrisy. Later on, put against the wall, he came up with an answer or what I call 'a political answer' because we cannot trust that the answer he gave reflects what Tim Farron actually believes in. David Ward committed the crime of having strong views on Palestine and in the United Kingdom anybody who has strong views on Palestine risks being called Nazi, Anti-Semite and Jew hater. Never mind if many Jews across the world - including in Israel - are highly critical of what is happening in Palestine and they themselves disagree with what is being done in Palestine. But whatever your views on Palestine, we have a fundamental right to agree or disagree, a right that has been discarded by the Liberal Democratic Party.   I hope you don't mind me getting in touch with you again. I believe I previously had contact when you signed my petition demanding that Isreal stopped persecuting the Palestinian people. You may have heard that I have been suspended from the Liberal Democrats just before nominations were due in for candidates in the General Election on 8th June 2017. Someone has made a complaint that my views are not consistent with the Lib Dems. I was properly approved and selected to stand in 2015 and again and for the expected General Election in 2020. My appeal against the complaint cannot be heard until after the 8th June. I believe this has been done to stop me standing as a candidate in the General election. The Lib Dems have imposed a candidate on the local party of volunteers who have been publicly criticised for selecting me. People have a right not to vote for me but what I will not accept is being prevented from standing as someone who has been outspoken against a foreign country which has numerous UN Resolutions condemning it for the way it behaves. Standing up to my detractors and trying to become an independent MP is at a huge personal and financial cost. I had already raised the cost of fighting the election as a Lib Dem but that cannot now be used. I have got one week to raise the £12,800 pounds it costs to be a candidate in a British General Election. Please, can you help me?  Please send whatever you can afford.   Best wishes David Ward Independent Candidate for Bradford East Donate to My Campaign Printed [hosted] by Mailchimp. Promoted and Published by David Ward (Independant Candidate for Bradford East) on behalf of David Ward. 8 Greenfield Lane, Idle Bradford, BD10 8PT Copyright © 2017 David Ward, All rights reserved. Your Email has been added to this list because you have contacted David Ward in the past regarding the plight of Palestinian people. Our mailing address is: David Ward 8 Greenfield Lane Idle Bradford, West Yorkshire BD10 8PT United Kingdom Add us to your address book Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list