Brexit: Parliament is playing a very dangerous game, an expensive game

Brexit: Parliament is playing a very dangerous game, an expensive game

When Anna Soubry rose in the House of Commons the game was self-evident. Why not a General Election? For the same reasons that the Labour Party doesn't want a General Election. Plagued by internal conflicts and divisions, scandals, it remains to be seen if the Labour Party is not actually the big loser in the skirmishes linked to Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn knows that this could well be the end of his political career. After all that is happening in the Labour Party, losing a General Election means goodbye to the Leadership of the Labour Party and a reshuffle that will be the end of the road for John McDonnell and others that will be blamed for the context in which many Labour MPs left to become Independents and even joined the Liberal Democrats. For some Labour MPs, all the threats will mean very little either because their majorities look unassailable or simply because after decades in politics they are heading for retirement. For other Labour MPs, the risk of their careers being ended by a General Election is very real and therefore they will drag their feet for as long as it is possible to do so. Other Labour MPs see the defeat of the Labour Party and in particular of Jeremy Corbyn as the best opportunity they have to rebuild the Labour Party. Losing an election would be for them a price worth paying 

For the Liberal Democrats, it is the kind of opportunity that they have been looking for for a vary long time. They jumped at the chance of being in government and this is why they were eager to join the Conservative Party in a coalition under the Leadership of David Cameron. In fact, some Labour MPs asked the Liberal Democrats today if they were willing to join the Conservatives in a coalition if the outcome of a General Election is once again a hung Parliament. There is the suspicion that this is exactly what the Leadership of the Liberal Democrats is looking for as several of them - including its present Leader - were in government with the Conservatives. The main difficulty is that the present Liberal Democratic Party was joined by Labour MPs and Conservative MPs and they would be in a very awkward situation.

For those like Chuka Umunna, former Labour MP for Streatham, to leave the Labour Party was a jump into the unknown. Then came the option of joining another political grouping with former Labour MPs and former Conservative MPs called Change UK. But after a dramatic failure in the European Parliament Elections, Chuka Umunna instinctively knew that the only alternative was to join the Liberal Democrats to stand a chance to try to save his political career. In a General Election, he wouldn't stand in Streatham and therefore he would be standing in the City. He secured his position as Liberal Democrat Speaker on Economic Affairs but, would he be willing to be part of a coalition with the Conservatives? For Conservatives who left the Conservative Party and joined the Liberal Democratic Party to see themselves as part of a coalition with the Conservatives would be a paradox and a very uncomfortable position to be in.

But before we can assume that Labour MPs and Conservative MPs who joined the Liberal Democrats would be re-elected but this time as Liberal Democrat MPs, we need to look at what is happening right now. The European Union suggested that they would agree to an extension - that they called a flexible extension - to allow the UK to finalize all legislative processses including the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement agreed with Prime Minister Boris Johnson but the agreement for a flexible extension comes with conditions attached and they are waiting for the House of Commons to make a decision that the House of Commons is not willing to make. The House of Commons hasn't approved the Deal, the House of Commons doesn't want a second Referendum and the House of Commons doesn't want a General Election. What would then be the point of granting an extension - or even a flexible extension? 

Will the EU deny the United Kingdom an extension at the last minute because the House of Commons cannot agree the way forward? It has been reported that tomorrow, a new motion will be put forward that would make possible to have a General Election despite the Fixed Term Parliament Act that requires a two-third majority of all 650 seats of the House of Commons including the seats that have not been occupied by Sinn Fein/IRA. The Speaker and other officials despite being MPs don't vote. For this reason, in order to have the required number of votes - according to the Fixed Term Parliament Act - a vast number of Labour MPs would have to support the motion. Tomorrow, would be decision time in the House of Commons. Would this be the end of the stalemate?

 

Labour's true colours: Margaret Beckett

Labour's true colours: Margaret Beckett

Margaret Beckett

We are so focused on Jeremy Corbyn that we have perhaps missed what Margaret Beckett, a veteran Labour MP, wrote for all to see. She advised Labour MPs to reject any deal that Prime Minister Boris Johnson agrees. 

This is what defines Labour: Opposition for opposition sake. Not what benefits the country but what she things would benefit Labour's electoral chances. Not the well-being of Britain but the selfish attitude of profesional politicians who couldn't care less about Britain.

And it is precisely such attitude that really and trully damages her party's electoral chances. The Liberal Democrats have stated and stated over and over again that they want to Remain and they will campaign in a General Election to Remain. The Conservative Party's position is to Leave on October 31, Deal or No Deal.

On top of this there is a group of policians the left either the Labour |Party or the Conservative Party that find themselves in the wildnerness as Independents or as members of meaningless political parties with very limited or non-existing chances of getting back to the House of Commons if a General Election was called.

The SNP has no intention of doing anything that could benefit Britain. Their agenda is the partition of Britain. They have said it over and over again and in spite of having declared itself a non-British political party they continue to act as a hurdle in the House of Commons. So the worst the political crisis, the happier the SNP becomes.

Can we call this Parliament a representative Parliament? Representative of what? Just a few hours ago, the Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary said that the Liberal Democrats were Taliban. Chucka Ummuna, the rising Labour Party star that turned against the Labour Party, has become the most poisonous enemy of his former friends. And what about the rebel Anne Soubry? Well, she cross the Conservative Party and became independent to form a group with former Conservative and Labour MPs only to be betrayed and left in no man's land. Her fortunes changed after Change UK failed miserably in the European Parliament Elections. So once again we pose the question. Representative of what? This is the Parliament in which the Opposition ran away from a General Election proposed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson not once but several times.

My position in this matter is pretty clear and straightforward. We don't have a democratic and representative Parliament. This Parliament has devalued itself to such extent that it is moving away from the Electorate while claiming to be legitimate.

Next week, the Supreme Court will announce its verdict: Was prorogation legal or illegal? It is said that whatever the outcome, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not recall Parliament and Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II finds herself caught up in the middle. She approved prorogation and with this act declared that prorogation is legal. Funny situation to be in if the Supreme Court moves against the Monarch.

But in a country in which nothing is sacred anymore anything could happen. Former Prime Minister David Cameron broke away from tradition and revealed what should have been kept as a secret for all. time. He made revelations about his dealings with the Monarch and in a unusual move the Royal Household publicly announced its displeasure regarding the actions of David Cameron.

The decision of the Supreme Court regarding a very political matter - if it is goes against Prime Minister Boris Johnson's prorogation of Parliametn - could also mean that separation of powers that must exist in any democracy no longer exists and we could enter the worst of all worlds - a corrupt and anti-Democratic Parliament, a compromised Judiciary and an Executive forced to take action against Parliament while ignoring the Supreme Court.

All this could have been avoided if the Opposition had agreed to call a General Election. Instead, a bad situation could become a lot worse. 

Rory Stewart: Deluded about pact with Brexit Party?

Rory Stewart: Deluded about pact with Brexit Party?

Rory Stewart

The  2019 local elections proved to be an absolute disaster for the Conservative Party that was punished for Theresa May's loss of public face. This was followed by the European Parliament Elections in which the Conservative Party was practically wiped out. As if this wasn't enough, in the Peterborough By Election, the Conservative Party was third behind the Brexit Party. The news that Rory Stewart contacted Nigel Farage to seek an agreement is the act of a desperate man that got barely 19 votes in the first round of the Conservative Party Leadership Election. Matt Hancock who got 20 votes walked away. But Rory Stewart went as a far as confirming that he is willing to destroy the Conservative Party following the path established by Philip Hammond. The fact that he was looking for a deal with the Brexit Party merely serves to confirm what Dominic Raab stated: If the Conservative Party doesn't deliver Brexit, the Conservative Party is finished.

Rumours that Boris Johnson could be confirmed even before two candidates are chosen to allow the Conservative Party Membership is given the opportunity to vote indicate that there is an awareness that should a leader be chosen that is not strong enough, not decisive enough, not enough of a believer in Brexit, this would be catastrophic for the Conservative Party. October 31st is the chosen date, the deadline. October 31st 2019 is the date to prove if the Conservative Party is a political force worth voting for. A new failure would not only condemn the new leader to a disgraceful departure. It would sink the Conservative Party. The Brexit Party is watching. Any hesitation in the Conservative Party will be a gigantic boost for the Brexit Party. Conservatives like Jacob Rees Mogg have spoken about including Nigel Farage in any future possible negotiation with the European Union.

In the meantime, in a desperate attempt to hold the Labour Party together, Jeremy Corbyn would be forced to offer a vote to Labour Party members so that any decision is not seen as Jeremy Corbyn's decision but as the Labour Party's decision. The Labour Party has already lost several Members of Parliament without an election being fought - Chuka Umunna joined the Lib Dems as Treasure and Business Spokesman. Not long ago, A high Profile Jewish MP resigned and accused the Labour Party of Anti-Semitism, accusation that was backed up by other Labour MPs who left to become independent. This happened after several MPs had become independent facing the certain danger of being deselected by their local constituencies.

Both Conservatives and Labour are in a state of flux. People are being asked who they will vote for if there was a General Election tomorrow. Lib Dems and Brexit Party come on top in terms of preferences. Some commentators who are politically aligned with the Labour Party have said that should Boris Johnson become leader the next step would be a general election but, perhaps, they are not taking into account the desperate state of both political parties and that in such general election the Conservative Party and the Labour Party risk coming third and fourth.

Confronting the possibility of Parliament being suspended to ensure that no one can prevent Brexit, Rory Stewart talked about using the Central Hall located not far from the Houses of Parliament to organise an alternative Parliament that would challenge the government but this looks very much like a political crisis of gigantic proportions not seen in Britain since the days of Oliver Cromwell and Charles I. Moreover, a motion put forward by the Labour Party aimed at preventing No Deal was defeated just days ago. 

On Tuesday, June 18th 2019, the Second Round in the Conservative Party Leadership Election will take place. There are six candidates left in the struggle. Remainers like Rory Stewart will have to have enough support to survive because facing a Conservative Party Membership vote with grassroots that are mainly for Leave.