Humza Yousaf: an earthquake in Scottish politics and UK politics

 

Humsa Yousaf: an earthquake in Scottish politics and UK politics

From Alex Salmond, through Nicola Sturgeon to Humza Yousaf, the SNP was a different SNP every step of the way. The surge of the Alba Party was part of this voyage.

Practically from the very beginning, Alex Salmond was telling us that Scotland could be independent and self-financing with Scottish oil and gas resources. That was his fighting card. 

The arrival of Nicola Sturgeon (and of her husband now facing fraud charges) made people believe that Nicola Sturgeon could get things done and she was the darling of the mass media until her fall that some say was motivated by pressures related to a fraud investigation. She also made the ill fated decision to have a coalition with the Green Party that brought in very unsavoury policies in terms of energy and of gender politics, something that was questioned outright by Scottish voters that started to turn their backs on the SNP.

Events outside the United Kingdom and markedly the crisis in the Middle East had a negative impact, once again, because the ethnicity and religion card has been played over and over again. The Zionist Movement could not possibly accept a Muslim leader, critical of events in the Middle East. So the fall of Humza Yousaf has been caused by a cocktail of reasons and the choice of a new leader will tells in which direction Scotland is moving and in which direction British politics is moving with Muslim increasingly disenchanted that do not trust that there is a valid expression of their views and needs in British politics.

There are already signs that in the future British politics will be about ethnic politics and very little about real British needs. Angela Merkel, speaking about Germany, publicly said 'Multikulti ist tot' (Multiculturalism is dead). The same will now apply to British politics. 

Scotland: Was associating itself directly with the Independence Movement a faux pas?

 

Was the fact that the Independence Movement was directly linked to the SNP a serious mistake?

The Scottish National Party and its newly adopted leader and successor of Nicola Sturgeon are in deep waters. Their management of Scotland has left a lot to be desired and has somehow come to be seen as what would happen to Scotland if Scotland were to become independent. Management of health and education - to name two vital sectors of any economy - has been an unmitigated disaster. The association of SNP with the Greens as a way to remain in power has led to disastrous policy making as a way to keep the coalition going.

Long gone are the days when Alex Salmond, the most successful Scottish National Party Leader, used to tell everybody that Scottish oil resources would ensure a strong Scottish economy that would be independent from the rest of the United Kingdom. In a move to remain Socialists without being attached to what they called the English Labour Party, the Scots gave preeminence to the Scottish Green Party and Net Zero did the rest to undermine what had been until a more or less credible stance. 

The poison chalice for Nicola Sturgeon as Leader was on the surface her stance on Gender Politics and suddenly, she was stricken by a series of scandals around financial impropriety. Her way out - and her resignation as Leader was planned as a way to avoid a major crisis that could have sunk the SNP even lower - was designed as a way to disappear. No sooner she was out as leader, a political storm was unleashed.

Humza Yousaf was chosen as scapegoat. He was supposed to be Nicola Sturgeon's heir apparent. He did not inherit her power. She threw him to the wolves and now he faces the inevitable. If his first time as leader is to lose to the Labour Party opening the way back for Labour into Scottish politics, will he survive? The Scottish National Party is extremely factional. In fact, the SNP has been at war with itself not just in Scotland, but most visibly in Westminster.

The SNP should have seen that by closely associating itself with the Independence Movement all it has done is to push backwards the Independence project. The Scottish people have just realised that when it comes to health, education and the economy in general the SNP has not delivered and it cannot deliver precisely because of its close association with the Scottish Green Party.

You cannot base your calculations on fossil fuel energy while at the same time talk about getting rid of fossil fuels. It makes no sense. I can't possibly make sense. If anything, it has increased economic dependency. The point might come when Devolution itself will be questioned.  

 

Politics can change at very short notice and so can geopolitics

Keir Starmer

What happened in the last 48 hours is the equivalent of a political earthquake. Two political figures - Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon have been sidelined or so is that the forces that put them out of the way want to believe.

Nicola Sturgeon was not so much important as the Scottish leader that moved to break down the United Kingdom. She has been the tool used by those in charge of the European Union to put hurdles across the way of the Conservative governmenty in Westminster. She has been the outspoken defender of the EU against the British government. Who will have the political caliber to replace her and will the replacement follow the orders of the European Union? This remains to be seen.

No one apart from Nicola Sturgeon has the profile to play such a role and the Alba Party led by Alex Salmond will surely capitalize on her departure, in spite of the fact that Alex Salmond has been one of those targetted as part of the anti-Russia campaign. 

Some say that the Labour Party in Scotland will benefit, but this remains to be seen. The Labour Party is considered to be a London Metropolitan Party, not a national party, not a defender of Scottish interests at all and whoever has hopes regarding independence will not support the Labour Party.

The command given to Keir Starmer was to erradicate the left of the Labour Party that has been traditionally supportive of Palestine and very critical of Israeli policies in the occupied territories. Keir Starmer might not be Jewish, but his wife is Jewish and daughter of a Rabbi and their children are raised as Jews. Starmer married Victoria Alexander in 2007. The couples's son and daughter are being brought up in the Jewish faith of their mother. Victoria worked as a solicitor and now work in the National Health Service in occupational health. Victoria is originally from Poland and Keir Starmer stated that 'on her father's side there are mitzvahs, synagoques - there's all the traditions'. And also, presumably, all the related geopolitical allegiances that come with it.

Therefore, you don't have to struggle to guess what his views in terms of geopolitics and regarding the State of Israel actually are and this is why just a few hours ago he declared that Jeremy Corbyn will be excluded from the Labour Party and not allowed to stand as a Candidate in Islington, a seat that Jeremy Corbyn has represented for a very long time.    

In recent elections, the Conservative Party won control of the so called Red Wall, turning traditional Labour seats into Conservative seats. I wonder how traditional Labour and in particular Labour areas that have a predominantly Islamic population will react. Keir Starmer is a Metropolitan Londoner. It will be hard to persuade non Londoners and especially Northerners and Middle England. In the north, Andy Burnham, despite his retiscence to declare his aspirations regarding the leadership, has the right age, the right amount of experience and the right profile and as Mayor of Manchester can claim that he is not a privileged Southeasterner when a sizeable number of voters claim that Westminster has forgotten the rest of the country. In this regard, Keir Starmer's allegiance to Israel, his total contempt for the cause of Palestine, his inability to define what a woman is (surely he knows what a woman is, but he is afraid of straight answers that could put him on a collision course with segments of his own political party). To gain some support he will have to stop being a lawyer and become a politician. He will have to show courage and take real risks.

In terms of public image, he hasn't done extremely well. Kneeling down for the cameras was not his best moment. Emulating Boris Johnson by travelling to Kiev was not his best move either. His at best lukewarm support for the trade union movement did not dress him with flying colours either and it must be remarked that some critically important segments of the trade union movement no longer support the Labour Party. Will his charge against Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters win him many votes? Given the present political environment, the next General Election is for Keir Starmer to lose. Having said that, as we never expected Nicola Sturgeon to fall from power so ungratiously and so dramatically, it remains to be seen if Keir Starmer will be Labour leader in 2024. Will Jeremy Corbyn's supporters accept the invitation to leave the Labour Party? Will the Trade Unions that still support the Labour Party continue to support the Labour Party? What if the Labour Party is once again divided? Worse still, what if Labour voters as it has happened in recent times, decide to abstain?  

Jeremy Corbyn: No way back, says Starmer

 

Keir Starmer stated today what right now seems the obvious course of action: Jeremy Corbyn will not be allowed to stand as a Labour candidate. This is the statement today February 15th 2023.

What brought Jeremy Corbyn down was not Anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, but Jeremy Corby's stances on Palestine and the cause of the people of Palestine. 

Jeremy Corbyn was brought down because of issues that very much divide the people of Israel. Jeremy Corbyn was also targetted because of his geopolitical views and because his views on economics. No doubts about that. Now, it is up to those who genuinely support Jeremy Corbyn's views to remain or not to remain as Labour Party members and this is something Labour Party members and voters will have to consider looking forward to the 2024 Parliamentary Election. There is no guarantees either in terms of Keir Starmer being the Labour Party Prime Ministerial candidate in 2024. Keir Starmer was brought in to replace Jeremy Corbyn and now that Jeremy Corbyn is out, why should Keir Starmer remain as leader? This is a case that Keir Starmer will have to make himself and especially when he is at odds with the trade union movement that very much finances the Labour Party.

For a man that does not dare to publicly define what a woman is, things will not be easy as another leader who came up with unsavoury stances on sexuality came to realise. Nicola Sturgeon said that 'the issue regarding transgender and transexuality was not the issue that broke the camel's back.' Well, Nicola Sturgeon in on the way out and perhaps not just because of 'the issue that didn't break the came's back'. As Nicola Sturgeon recognized, Scotland is not a united country and the SNP is not a united party and remaining as SNP leader was not a viable proposition as she defined herself as a very divisive leader.

Having stated that she has campaigned from a very early age for Scottish Independence, she clearly stated that remaining as First Minister would only undermine the cause for independence as more and more people will turn against her because of issues that are not related to Scottish Independence. She clearly stated that the longer she stays as First Minister politics will turn to be more about personalities than about a proper debate.

Failings in terms of governance - the state of the Scottish NHS comes to mind - and controversial policies that are not supported by members of her own party - might have sealed her political fate.

And talking about fate, the Church of England is under assault. Militant Homosexuals are trying to force the Church of England to abandon Christian values in favour of political correctness and this is proving to be extremely corrosive. 

From media reports: 

The Archbishop of Canterbury, the Most Rev Justin Welby has spoken of being "threatened with parliamentary action" in an attempt to "force same-sex marriage" into the Church of England.

He was speaking at the global Anglican Consultative Council meeting in Ghana.

It comes after reforms within the church allowing the blessing of same-sex couples in civil partnerships.

The change was made after a motion was passed by the General Synod, the church's legislative body, this month.

Its position on gay marriage will not change and same-sex couples will still be unable to marry in church.

The Telegraph reports Mr Welby met with MPs at the House of Commons last month, and pushed back on further changes to its status on same-sex marriage.

Speaking ahead of the changes, broadcaster Sandi Toksvig said a meeting in January with the archbishop, last month was "very disappointing".

Ms Toksvig is a high-profile campaigner on LGBT+ issues, and although not a member of the church, she told the BBC she spoke out because she felt the impact of the message being sent out by the bishops was having an impact far beyond the Church.

The changes in the church have been unpalatable to some conservatives, but also fall well short of what many progressives had wanted.

Giving the presidential address on Sunday, Mr Welby said "many" members of the General Synod have "dismissed" his concerns about recent reforms.

• Sandi Toksvig: I can't let the Church hurt LGBT people
• Church of England backs plans to bless gay couples

He told those at the meeting, held in the Ghanian capital Accra "rules about sexuality in the Church of England" have been tabled for discussion as a "result" of growing atheism in the UK.

The archbishop said in the global north, Christian values of "community and mutual responsibility" have been "almost eliminated" in favour of "individualism".

Undoubtedly, Britain is in a state of flux at every level and there is an abundance of examples showing that the United Kingdom is a very disunited Kingdom. It comes as no surprise that more and more people will be tempted to take matters into their own hands to defend what they believe in and this is certainly a recipe for more and more confrontation.

10 Downing Street: If you talk the language of war, you need to prepare for war

 

Inconsistencies when dealing with geopolitical situations will get an unnecessary number of people killed simply because of complaisancy.

We heard harsh words coming out of the lips of Western European politicians including British politicians, but they do not reflect reality. It is absolutely shambolic.

Britain is open. It cannot even control the number of illegal immigrants entering the country. It has an NHS that almost collapsed under the weight of a Covid pandemic. None other than the Metropolitan Police Service is now run under special measures because of systemic failures that led, among other things, to the resignation of its chief commander Cressida Dick. Police officers are more interested in kneeling down and in joining every single cranky demonstration of political correctness than in doing their work properly.

For many years, both Labour and Conservative governments neglected the Armed Forces to the point when they were found wanting more than once and forced to play second fiddle. Pomp and Circumstance and posturing will not protect Britain let alone win any wars. 

We are now in an impasse. The country does not have a Prime Minister and does not have a government. We cannot call Prime Minister a man that has been backstabbed by his own political party and a government in which members of the goverment don't see eye to eye. Boris Johnson himself has said that no fundamental piece of legislation will be put forward until there is a clear definition of who is actually in control of the British government and there is a return to a debate of all issues that were already decided. This is like fighting a war on several fronts or to put it in very straightforward manner it is a recipe for disaster. In times of danger, politicians are simply driven by their own fatal habits and nothing good can come out of it.

A country facing war should not be divided. Nicola Sturgeon cares more about her own agenda than she cares about the survival of Britain. In fact, she does not give a damn about the survival of Britain and she is playing right into the hands of the enemies of Britain. The Americans, as usual, are poking their noses in internal matters of other countries and creating a mess. Northern Ireland, once again, does not have a working Assembly and at a time when 10 Downing Street is a mess and Parliament is a mess, short of having direct rule in Northern Ireland, the people of Northern Ireland are stranded with a non working Assembly and a British Parliament that is not just limited by Devolution. We are travelling on a rudderless ship. All Devolution has achieved is the creation of platforms to destroy the United Kingdom: a Northern Ireland without governance, a Wales controlled by the Labour Party, a Scotland controlled by SNP, a Westminster Parliament that has become a political circus and a Prime Minister defeated by his own political party.  

 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the House of Commons

The Opening Speech in the House of Commons by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson started by once again setting up the deadline for Britain to leave the European Union. Brexit should have happened on March 29th 2019 but postponement after postponement the country found itself having to organize European Parliament Election and having to witness the circus of the election of the new President of the European Commission that was in fact not elected but appointment. The former German Defense Minister was in fact the only candidate on the ballot put forward after a struggle between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron.

This is a very strange time in British politics in which those opposing Brexit seem to be supporting the IRA that walked away from the Northern Ireland Assembly leaving Northern Ireland in the doldrums transforming so called Devolution into a meaningless word.

The country voted for Brexit and therefore it was a fundamental error to have a Remain Prime Minister and a Cabinet in which too many were Remain supporters including Jeremy Hunt who stood for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Jeremy Hunt would have been another version of Theresa May. 

This is a binary question. To be or not to be and nothing in between. All the talk about a deal was no more than delaying tactics used by those who were opposed to Brexit from day one. We are not going to see 'Leg Touching' Philip Hammond, although he might rise to try and torpedo the Conservative government.

Parliament will return at the beginning of September but the threat is in the air. If Parliament tries to block Brexit, Parliament will be put aside. The present Parliament has degraded democracy setting up obstacles and hurdles to prevent the implementation of Brexit.

Nicola Sturgeon would do better if she faced her own responsibilities in Scotland where the rate of suicides is rising and the rate of those dying because of drug abuse is rising. The SNP Paradise is much more of a version of Hell on Earth. The talk about Scottish Independence is no more than a diversion not to deal with the real issues Scotland is suffering from.

2017 General Election - Box of Surprises or Pandora's Box

2017 General Election

No sooner than the echoes of the French Presidential Election are dying down and France prepares itself for a Legislative Election, the focus is more than ever before on what happens in the United Kingdom.

In every election there are different factors in play. The Conservative Party without David Cameron is once again led by a female Prime Minister, the second female Prime Minister after Margaret Thatcher interrupting a very long series of male Prime Ministers in the history of British Democracy.

North of the border, in Scotland, another female leads a majority party, the SNP, with a very different agenda, and in Wales yet another female leads Plaid Cymru - equivalent of SNP but on a much lower scale.

So there are going to be several battles in this war called General Election. In Scotland, SNP needs to justify its predominance (56 out of 59 Scottish MPs are SNP) and the SNP struggle will take place on two fronts: its local politics within Scotland as political party in government and its politics within the United Kingdom and the relationship with the EU. If local politics happen to be the main focus, SNP could end up losing many of the House of Commons' seats that it won in the previous election.

We should never trust electoral forecasts. If forecasts are true then the Conservative Party is due for a revival in England, Scotland and Wales and even seats in the Greater London Region dominated by the Labour Party would be up for grabs.

Even in the middle of an electoral campaign prominent figures of the Labour Party (London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn) don't seem to be on the same wavelength. Just days ago, when the Labour Party Leader went north, the now newly elected Mayor of Greater Manchester didn't want to meet him.

North of the border, things don't seem to be going well for the Labour Party. The Scottish Labour Party Leader Kezya Dugdale suspended Labour councillor in Aberden because they wanted to form an electoral alliance with the Conservative Party. She secured an important majority in the contest for Leadership of the Scottish Labour Party. Would she be obtain to obtain a similar majority today after all that has been happening not just in Scotland but also south of the border? Recent council elections results - May 2017 - seem to indicate that Labour could have to withstand even more divisions.

Prime Minister Theresa May went to Parliament to seek an exception to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 because she said that she needs a strong mandate to engage in Brexit negotiations with the EU. What we witnessed during Parliamentary debates leading to the triggering of Article 50 more than justify the 2017 General Election.

The news that many Labour MPs would not stand as candidates in the coming General Election could signal the reappearance in Parliament of old faces, should they get enough support to win seats in the House of Commons. One of those faces is Simon Hughes, long standing London MP that lost his seat to Labour in 2015. In his particular case, the struggle is to have to stand against a Labour MP that shares his views about the EU. Would divisions in the Labour Party be strong enough an issue to temp Labour voters to support a Lib Dem candidate?

The 2015 General Election was a catastrophe for the Liberal Democrats. In 2010, they had 57 seats. In 2015, they were left with 8 seats. David Ward who was a Member of Parliament in 2010 and lost his seat in 2015 is not allowed to stand for the Liberal Democrats because of differences of opinion regarding Israel and Palestine.

Thanks to an organisation that opposes Brexit, the Conservative Party has the wind on its sails. Prominent Conservative Members of Parliament who were part of the campaign against Brexit changed direction when the said organisation suggested that it would campaign against the Conservative Party. Party allegiances prevailed and now they act as one in support of Prime Minister Theresa May.

So now is the time for party political manifestos with the Liberal Democrats trying to show that they can offer more than the Labour Party, a Labour Party who manifesto is focused on re-nationalisation and on tax changes that could have a major impact not just from a financial point of view but also from a political and social point of view. The Conservative Party chooses a more cautious approach and in times of great political and financial uncertainty vast sectors of the Electorate would choose to play safe.

The Labour Party has grandiose ideas but even within the ranks of the Labour Party there are voices of disagreement of those who don't support the Labour Party Manifesto thinking that it is too extreme or unrealistic in financial terms. This could be a Clause 4 moment for the Labour Party. Will the Labour Party continue under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? Will the Labour Party split?

The Liberal Democrats dream about the split of the Labour Party, seeking to attract those who oppose Jeremy Corbyn to form another political party, a centre ground political party, a moderate force in British politics to oppose the Conservative Party.

The strain in British politics is at peak levels. 2017 could end up being even more eventful than 2016.  Alignments and re-alignments in a more fluid political environment could lead to quite a few surprising developments.

Away from the so called mainstream political parties, there are quite a few changes in the offing. Some have already discounted UKIP as political party. Others say that UKIP will adapt to a post-EU membership. Arron Banks, former UKIP supporter is now talking about the launch of a new political movement in the autumn - this is after the General Election.

As always the advice is 'don't try to cross the bridge until you reach the bridge' (or don't put the car before the horses). Despite the talk about a Conservative landslide, I am wise enough not to take anything for granted.

Like everybody else, we will go to the polling stations in the early hours of Election Day and we will wait patiently to hear the announcements about who has won and who has lost. Every election is a box of surprises. I do have my favourite to win. I have my own views about who should win for the sake of the country. We do need a strong government. A dithering government or a government with a very small majority could be a Pandora's Box.

 

Theresa May is absolutely right in asking the country for a clear mandate

To be or not to Be: That is the question.

When Prime Minister Theresa May was elected by the Conservative Party, many of those criticising her for calling an early election said that 'she had not been elected in a General Election'.

As soon as Prime Minister Theresa May went to Parliament to amend the legislation about fixed 5-year Parliaments and won, she was criticised for asking the British people for a clear mandate.

I am not a member of the Conservative Party or of any other political party for that matter. I vote with my conscience regardless of any party political allegiance and I say that Prime Minister Theresa May is absolutely right to call a General Election when some of the most crucial negotiations modern Britain will be engaged in are due to take place.

I witnessed the mayhem and confusion in the House of Commons, the sniper-fire and the air of division and without a shadow of a doubt a House of Commons elected after the implementation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was badly needed because the one we had did not represent the will of the Electorate expressed on June 23, 2016.

We need a Parliament that is fully behind the British Prime Minister showing a United Kingdom that is truly united supporting the will of the British people who, at the end of the day, is the true sovereign of the United Kingdom.

When the new House of Commons rises it will be a House of Commons that truly reflects the will of the Electorate and not a House of Commons that was embattled in the campaign for or against the implementation of Article 50 of the House of Commons.

We hope to see the real balance of forces in all home nations and undoubtedly there is a question mark about the level of support for the Scottish National Party that constantly threatens to break up the United Kingdom cajoling, blackmailing and concocting all kinds of schemes that threaten the political stability of the United Kingdom and weakens the United Kingdom when confronted with external powers.

I will stop short of qualifying Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP as traitors but the actions of the SNP and of its leader are controversial not to say treacherous and treasonable. There was a lawful Referendum on Scottish Independence, Referendum that the SNP has asked for and campaigned for and there was a clear majority of Scots that chose to be part of the United Kingdom. So where the United Kingdom goes, Scotland goes and there is no way out of it. That was the commitment made when people were asked if the wanted an independent Scotland.

All home nations will act as one, together, when decisions are made in the negotiations with the European Union because they share one destiny as the United Kingdom.

Those opposing the implementation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty even appealed to the maximum Court in the land and the maximum Court in the land said loudly and clearly that it was up to the national Parliament and its elected chamber the House of Commons to make a decision and that all other assemblies including the Scottish Parliament should have no say in the matter.

The Scottish government regardless of being or not being a majority in the Scottish Parliament and regardless of the number of MPs that represent the SNP in the House of Commons have to obey the will of the majority in the House of Commons.

The General Election is about having or not having a strong government to negotiate the future relationship with the European Union. Everything else comes second place. The priority is to show a united United Kingdom with an elected Primer Minister backed up by an unquestionable political mandate to do whatever is necessary.