Tuesday, 9 April 2019

June 30 or else?

June 30 or else?

The first deadline was March 29th 2019. Then came two conditional deadlines: April 12th 2019 and May 22nd 2019. Today, the House of Commons voted to establish that June 30th 2019 is the limit and that whatever is negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May has to fit it in a period from today until June 30th 2019.

If the European Union decides tomorrow to have an extension that doesn't go beyond June 30th 2019 then such deadline would be viable. If the European Union decides that it was deadline that is beyond June 30th 2019 then what?
As tensions rise within the Conservative Party several avenues are possible:

1) The potential to force Theresa May's resignation - this would require that Theresa May accepts to resign voluntarily for the sake of the Conservative Party or a Vote of No Confidence in the Conservative Government that would lead to the fall of the Conservative Government. At this point, Her Majesty the Queen could decide to call Jeremy Corbyn and asked him to form a new government.

2) Theresa May might call a General Election which in these uncertain times would neither benefit the Conservative Party not the Labour Party and would encourage voters to choose candidates either pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit regardless of any other consideration.

3) A Referendum could take place as a pre-condition for Parliament to accept Theresa May's original deal. In such a Referendum there could be three choices: 1) To accept Theresa May's Deal 2) To reject Theresa May's Deal and go out without a Deal and 3) To cancel Brexit altogether. 

Since neither of the three options are very popular putting the decision in the hands of the Electorate would seem to be the obvious choice but there is a big BUT. If the number of people voting in the Referendum is lower than the number of people voting in the original Referendum the outcome would be seriously undermined. A lower turnout would lead to serious consequences.

Another pending issue is the European Parliament Election. If the deadline chosen goes beyond May 22nd 2019, Britain would take part in the European Parliament Elections that if Britain were to decide to leave would be rendered meaningless. At this point, the European Union could decide to prolong the mandate of present Members of the European Parliament thus altering the date of the European Parliament Elections. This doesn't seem to be a practical solution. Allowing Britain to take part in the said European Parliament Elections wouldn't be a practical solution either. President Macron has expressed his concerns that the European Parliament Elections could be used to get a higher number of anti-EU Members of the European Parliament that could block his plans for closer European Union political integration.










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