President Donald Trump: even with majority in both houses, it is not going to be an easy ride

 

It the run towards the elections was not an easy ride, the first half of President Donald Trump is not going to be an easy ride either.

Having a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives is no guarantee of support when new projects reach both houses and full support will be needed to implement any piece of legislation.

Commentators of all political colours make all sorts of forecasts about the direction of travel of the new administration. Every statement made leads to speculation.

The reality is that from day one it is going to be a one day at a time business. Few could predict that COVID would be so fundamental in both national and international politics.

No one has the crystal ball to foresee what new crise will be in the horizon. At this point in time the one war that will lead to the big war could start anywhere. Political crisis in both Germany and France are just beginning and these are two major European players. It remains to be determined what will be the impact of massive political changes in both Germany and France. Bans could be the trigger of major events. Attempts to incarcerate Marine Le Pen in France could badly backfire. Attempts to ban AfD in Germany could literally destroy democracy in Germany. So who will be the players? Soonafter President Donald Trump is officially inaugurated as American President, there will be Federal Elections in Germany.

Car manufacturing is vital for the German economy and right now there are not just news about closures in Germany, but also closures in Europe when AUDI moves its operations to Brazil. Scania, Volkswagen and in the near future also AUDI will be based in Brazil. This will be of course good news for Brasilian workers, but not very good news for EU workers - at a time when Germany represents more than 24 per cent of the European Union economy. 

China and Uruguay strengthen bilateral relations that go beyond trade

China and Uruguay strengthen bilateral relations at all levels, including trade but not exclusively trade. President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou is in Beijing for the signature of important agreements with a country that already receives 56% of Uruguayan exports.

Uruguay is a key geographic player with full access to Antarctica and the South Atlantic having some of the best deep water harbours in the region. Somebody that was already remarked by other Asian nations seeking to exploit the riches of Antarctica and of the South Atlantic.

The Uruguayan President has long seen bilateral agreements outside Mercosur as the key for Uruguay development, taking Uruguay away from the straightjacket of a trading block. It is not about leaving Mercosur, but about looking towards the rest of the world and especially towards new trade agreements in distant parts of the planet.

We do not know what will the Argentinian position since President Elect Javier Milei and his political partners in the Argentinian Parliament still need to decide what is needed to curb the inflationary process in Argentina. One needs to assume that for while internal matters both financial and political will be seen as immediate priorities. With regards to Brazil, President Lula is still interested in an agreement with the European Union, agreement that in view of present positions in Europe seems to be distant.

When comparing trade agreements, the European Union is a very small fraction of world markets. In demographic terms, Europe is an even smaller fraction compared to India, China, Russia and other world operators and this includes Africa - a massive continent with a vast amount of resources.

For Uruguay, anything that limits Uruguay's capacity to trade with the rest of the world is something to get rid of. Paraphazing what was said by Hungary when Hungary joined the European Union, 'we are going to accept that benefits Hungary and reject what does not benefit Hungary'. By the way, the music of the Uruguayan National Anthem was composed by a Hungarian composer. 
 

Argentina's difficult political balance, Mercosur and trade alliances beyond Latin America

With three digit inflation rates and decades of stagnation, forty years of democracy could mean absolutely nothing. In an election in which there were record numbers of voters, the incoming President Javier Milei got outstanding support accross the entire country with equally record numbers of provinces that came out to support him. 

It is not going to be an easy task. In fact, in Parliament opposition forces still have a commanding majority that could block every single attempt to change Argentinian politics and economics. The risk is that if more than 13 million voters that supported Javier Milei come to see Parliament as a sedicious force that stands on the way preventing changes then Parliament itself will be in trouble. Could government by decree become an alternative from the very beginning?

Argentinian Constitution extract

CHAPTER III Powers of the Executive Branch Section 99.- The President of the Nation has the following powers: 1.- He is the supreme head of the Nation, head of the government and he is politically responsible for the general administration of the country. 2.- He issues the instructions and rules necessary for the enforcement of the 16 laws of the nation, without altering their spirit with regulatory exceptions. 3.- He takes part in the making of laws according to the Constitution, promulgates them and has them published. The Executive Power shall in no event issue provisions of legislative nature, in which case they shall be absolutely and irreparably null and void. Only when due to exceptional circumstances the ordinary procedures foreseen by this Constitution for the enactment of laws are impossible to be followed, and when rules are not referred to criminal issues, taxation, electoral matters, or the system of political parties, he shall issue decrees on grounds of necessity and urgency, which shall be decided by a general agreement of ministers who shall countersign them together with the Chief of the Ministerial Cabinet.

The Constitution seems to indicate that only in exceptional circumstances the President can issue decrees and that 'The Executive Power shall in no event issue provisions of legislative nature, in wichi case they shall be absolutely and irreparably null and void.'. 

It is explicitly clear that the last and final word on legislative matters lies in Parliament and it is a Parliament in which the political party supporting the President directly will have 38 representatives in the House of Reprentatives of a total of 257 and in the Senate the number of Senators directly supporting the President will be 6 out of 72. Unavoidably, the President will have to seek support of other political parties to be able to pass any bills.

Given these numbers, all the scaremongering promoted by opponents of Javier Milei is totally unjustified. It is most probable that Mauricio Macri (Former President) and Patricia Bullrich (Former Minister under Mauricio Macri) of Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) will have a major say. 

The bone of contention will be that Javier Milei's electoral allies will have the seats that Javier Milei needs to govern and Javier Milei will be able to say that despite not having enough seats he has the popular mandate and that people supported his electoral platform.

If the President can manage to transform an electoral coalition into a governing coalition then there will be a peaceful working political transition. If the President does not manage to transform an electoral coaliton into a governing coalition then there will be political upheaval leading to dangerous political uncertainties.

In Uruguay, there are divisions in terms of supporting or not supporting Javier Milei. For example, Frente Amplio (Broadfront) in opposition was more inclined to support the losing candidate Sergio Massa. In Brazil, President Lula came openly in support of Sergio Massa. Javier Milei for starters indicated that he wanted to get rid of Mercosur - something he might not achieve given the fact that he will be effectively in coalition with Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich.

Uruguay has expressed that it wants ever closer trade relations with China, independently of its membership of Mercosur. Argentina itself has plans to incorporate Chinese communications technology. Brazil is seeking a new alignement having become a supporter of new trade arrangements that will bring the country closer to economies linked to the Russian Federation and China.

In spite of the fact that there are other Latin American economies linked to Mercosur, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are the core of the trading block.

Second Round of Elections in Argentina: Radical Bullrich endorses Milei against Peronista Massa

 

Lider Radical Patricia Bullrich distances herself from two sectors of the alliance that supported her candidacy in the first round of elections to reject Peronista (Justicialista) candidate Sergio Massa (Argentinian Economics Minister) and support Javier Milei. 

Cristina Bullrich said she could not possible support Sergio Massa that she responsabilizes for the state of the economy in Argentina.

Her support for Javier Milei keeps the contest wide open. She got 24% of the vote in the first round of elections. Other political leaders have shown their allegiance of one of the two remaining Presidential Candidates. Divisions in Argentina spread across national borders and Argentina is one of two most powerful players in Mercosur. It is usually said that if Argentina sneezes Uruguay catches a cold.

In Uruguay, the political crisis surrounding the award of a Uruguayan passport to a well known drug trafficker is rocking the ruling coalition headed by President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou of the Partido National - one of the two conservative parties that make up the ruling coalition. The Opposition represented by Frente Amplio (Broad Front) plans to focus the heat on President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou to reveal how he knew about the affair. At this moment in time, Cabildo Abierto - member of the ruling coalition - has expressed doubts about remaing as member of the coalition.

Everything in Argentina and in Uruguay is touch and go. A return of the Frente Amplio is not unthinkable if the ruling coalition falls apart. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has publicly endorsed Sergio Massa and is ideologically closer to Frente Amplio. It must be said that Javier Milei has stated that he wants Argentina to leave Mercosur. So this is more than a second round of a Presidential Election in Argentina. The survival of the Mercosur is at stake and relationships inside the bloc and outside the bloc could be affected by what happens in the next fews days in Argentina.

Argentina: Tri-partite approach to politics

 Argentina: the two party system comes to an end?

For decades, Argentina has been about Peronistas (Justicialistas) and Radicales, not that the names actually represent what both Justicialistas and Radicales used to represent. Argentina has gone from crisis to crisis, from military regimes to military regimes, from debt to even bigger debt and now faces inflation rates of more than 115 percent with massive levels poverty.

A newcomer in Argentine politics manage to reach levels of support of 30% leaving both Justicialistas and Radicales behind. In October 2023, Argentina faces the first round of elections and there could be a second round of elections (ballotage) if no candidate reaches the minimum required for an outright result.

Many years ago, Argentina attempted to maintain the value of the Peso pegged to the US Dollar, something that ended in tears as it was practically impossible to maintain parity without massive levels of indebtedness leading to default. The newcomer proposes to replace the Peso altogether to adopt the US Dollar as currency. Why? Because he says that it will be the ultimate weapon to get rid of inflation.

If Argentina adopts the US Dollar as national currency, what happens to Mercosur? The regional block has been under enormous economic and political pressures because of both internal and external issues. Just by mentioning the names of the countries that are members of Mercosur one realizes what a complex situation this is.

MERCOSUR countries:

Full Members: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay

Associate Members: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, and Suriname

Venezuela was supposed to be full member, but has been suspended indefinitely

Trade with China has been a bone of contention. Uruguay that exports 56% of what it produces to China even threatened that if an agreement was not reached its membership of Mercosur could come to an end.

At one point, it was suggested that that Mercosur should have its own currency to challenge the US Dollar. So what happens when a major member and founding member of Mercosur playes with the idea of replacing its own national currency with the US Dollar?

If the issues concerning China would not break up Mercosur, such a currency change could certainly be the last drop.

Therefore, for Mercosur, who holds the rains of power in Argentina could be a make or break situation for the entire block.

Environmental gatherings: Saving the planet?

Environmental summits are no more than grandiose talking shops for picture opportunities and empty promises and am sure that mass media loved them because they give them something to write about without much effort and surely there is a crowd worldwide eager to swallow every fib that comes out of magnificent wastes of time.

Headlines like 'tens of billions needed to save the planet' might sound impressive - am sure they sound impressive - but they are as impressive as meaningless as no country in the world will ever consider spending such amounts of money that will surely come from additional borrowing that would lead them to implement austerity policies that no one likes to implement because they usually land those who try to implement into deep water. 

Questions that are seldom asked include 'who is going to get such amount of money and what they would be suposed to do with it?'. The 'what for', 'how' and issues of accountability are non existing. As soons the the mass media circus is over, it will be business as usual until the next mass media circus. 

After the mass media circus, the real issues of everyday life will once again be on the table. Ladies and Gentlemen, we have an energy crisis. Germany is said to be in talks with United Kingdom to seek gas supplies - Germany does not have enough storage capacity for liquidified gas and even if Germany had enough storage capacity the amount of energy obtained from liquidified gas is quickly reduced by the same process of turning liquified gas into usable gas. This putting aside issues involving transportation of liquified gas done with a lot of fossil fuels. All those ships that carry liquified gas use fossil fuels and this has a cost. The cost of maritime transport has gone up considerably to the point that bringing in goods from faraway places has become extremely onerous reducing commercial margins generated by low production costs abroad. Perhaps the German move to transfer production to China was inspired by the fact that bringing factories closer to raw materials will allow them to reduce production cost a lot more. Scania made a similar move years ago when much of the operation was transferred to Brazil. Brazil needed trucks and it was easier and cheaper to produce trucks in Brazil that incidentally was going to be a major market for Swedish trucks.

The other issue that lies around is fracking. For all the talk about fracking producing earthquakes, you would need specially sensitive equipment to detect such 'earthquakes', and obviously ordinary people who don't have such equipment will hardly ever know about the said 'earthquakes'. Mass media have been very active creating an artificial monster out of gullible minds that are very willing to believe whatever horror story they are told. Although fracking will not provide immediate results in terms of increasing energy supplies, it is something to take into consideration when energy supplies are going down. Nuclear energy is a certain possibility but it takes decades for a nuclear plant to be built to produce the energy that we desperately need. We need energy now. This is one of the subjects Germany will be discussing with Britain to avoid what now look like unavoidable blackouts in the biggest manufacturing country in Europe.

Allende before, Lula next

 

In the 1970s, many in the left celebrated the arrival of Salvador Allende. 11 September 1973 ended with bloodshed and the rest is history.

I happened to be in the River Plate region at the time. I was told about the imminent military coup in Chile and was even told when and how it was going to happen.

There are different versions about Salvador Allende's death: one version of events was that he killed himself not to be arrested and another version is that he was killed when he was still at La Moneda Palace. It makes no difference. The fact is that that put an end to his life and to his government.

This is Lula's second coming and this time the difference between his party and the opposition is less than 1 per cent of the vote. This means that opposition in Parliament will be fierce. As soon as Lula tries to implement any policy that goes against the flow, the transit of any bill through Parliament will be traumatic. 

When Latin American countries go left, alarm bells start ringing in the US State Department and like it happened in 1973, the CIA and others will have already made contingency plans to deal with governments that are seen as a security threat to the USA.

In Argentina, the second most important member of Mercosur, the situation is unbearable. Neither Radicales nor Justicialistas have been able to bring things under control. Indebtedness, galloping inflation in Argentina has led Uruguay to take urgent measures to curb importation of goods coming from Argentina as a massive influx would endanger Uruguay's own economy.

What happens in Chile? Well, just a few days ago a Referendum was called to try and reform Pinochet's Constitution and there were not enough votes to change the Constitution. The fact that this happens many years after the end of the military regime tells you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the country is very much divided. And what happens in Venezuela? Let us remember that Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela are members of Mercosur. With Lula at the helm, will Brazil get closer to Venezuela and Cuba? Left-wing hope could well lead to left-wing tragedy.  

China: Wars are about money

 

It is no secret that while USA has been waging wars on credit and getting increasingly into debt, China has beed working hard, spreading its influence across the world and investingly heavely in the UK, in the USA and in many other countries.

The 2008 financial crisis is a clear example of how the USA has been operating, getting into debt, fuelling or creating conflicts around the world and using the consequences of conflicts it has created to invest more and more in the weapons industries - investing monies that the USA does not really have.

When the obvious consequence of such folly becomes self-evident, the recipe to ignore where the root of the problem really lies is to blame China and Russia as if demonising China and Russia the problems of the USA could be magically solved.

The conflict in Ukraine, for example, is a Ukrainian issue, but it is constantly used by the USA to justify massive military deployments. The conflict in Hong Kong and in Taiwan is a Chinese issue, but once again it is used by the USA to justify accusations about 'Chinese aggression and lack of democracy'. China has been a Comunist country since the days of Mao Tse-Tung, but the West including the USA were very happy to ignore whatever was going on in China because they wanted to invest in China to make money by using cheap labour and then sell manufactured products back in the West.

China took the transfers of resources and increasing indebtness of the West - including the USA - to develop its own economy and perfect technology to compete with the West and buy in the West whatever it could buy. China buys soy from Argentina and invests in Brazil in the creation of gateways to link the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean across Brazil. China invests in Africa because Africa is rich in mineral resources that China really and trully needs to develop its industries. China invests in New Zealand and Australia that now see their economic future that depends on their relationship with China.

While America speculates with dubious financial investments that ruin its economy and condemn millions of Americans to abject poverty, China - despite its ideological stance - is creating more wealth that the USA and heading towards pole position when it comes to world powers. 

Covid-19: Siege without end?

With all transport in and out of the country practically blocked, Britain faces what looks like constant crisis and in the meantime the public debt and the private debt keep going up and up. It is just a matter of time for the financial system to be bombarded with defaults generated by lack of economic activity and by the efforts to deal with the pandemic.

Companies - big and small - face the wall. During World War Two, British households were destroyed with bombs. In the Twenty-First Century, British households are being destroyed by a biological agent and this would go on ad infinitum. British authorities have said that there is no end in sight. With of without vaccination, there is no visible end of the tunnel. The virus is not just mutating in the United Kingdom. New strains have been arriving from places as far as Brazil and the possibility of a strain that cannot be tackled with today's vaccines must not be discarded.

In an effort to deal with the present pandemic, thousands upon thousands are not being treated for other diseases. This is the new Battle of Britain. This is not something that can be solved within weeks or months. We must prepare ourselves for a siege that could last several years.

On another issue - the extent of the damage done to the British economy by the measures implemented to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic is incalculable. In 2008, the financial sector had to be rescued, but the economy itself was working full blast. Since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, many areas of the British economy have come to a hault, many are being subsidized and others have simply evaporated thus ceasing to produce tax revenues for the British Treasury. There is little talk about balancing the budget because at this point in time balancing the budget is an impossibility.

  

 

  

Corona Virus could be a blessing in disguise

Corona Virus could be a blessing in disguise

In a Twenty-First Century of selfishness, Corona Virus could be a blessing in disguise, forcing Humanity to rethink its ways. 

We don't know how far the Corona Virus pandemia will go. But we know that it is forcing countries and people as individuals to think about the way we live.

This is a time in which if we don't look after our neighbours we would end up being victims. The virus doesn't care about national borders. The virus doesn't care about gender, race, sexual inclinations, ideologies or social background. If you are meant to get it, you are going to get it. Privileges amount to nothing. This a very democratic infection. At the last count, more than 150 countries have been infected, both rich and poor, regardless of backgrounds.

Corona Virus is making people think about our approach to healthcare and welfare in general. The views of an empty Mecca in Saudi Arabia send a very clear message to all those willing to hear. Whether you are Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu or of whatever other religious persuasion or don't believe at all, you can be a target. This is the kind of terror that can target Humanity as a whole.

Corona Virus could be given a religious meaning. Let's put it this way: you can be rich. You can be powerful. I am going to get you anyway. Maybe Corona Virus is what is needed to make Humanity think, ponder, and change for the better. For months on end, we have been talking about wars, about trade wars, about terrorism, about political polarization and conflicts of all kinds.Suddenly, the world is focused on one issue. This is about survival of the individual and the said individual could be you. For you to survive, you need the actions of many others. We come to the point when every nation will be made to understand that we all need a National Health Service. If your neighbour is ill because he or she cannot afford to be treated then you and your family and everybody else you care for is in danger.

Faced with a catastrophe we need to think and to act. Corona Virus might be teaching us a valuable lesson that all of us need to learn. 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biologic-war-former-iranian-president-says-coronavirus-was-produced-in-laboratories?fbclid=IwAR3X_sGcHXXKOgQpsB7BdWqz2DZ2tf9tAeoi13cfcL96RQKLDQmVHbg_bU8

  

Josef Mengele: Totesengel died in Brazilian beach

Josef Mengele: Totesengel died in Brazilian beach

Rolf and Josef Mengele

Josef Mengele was perhaps one of the most colourful characters during and after World War Two. The SS Captain lived a very eventful life and earned a living after the war working for his own family business in Latin America where he visited/lived in several countries including Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil. After the war, he went as a far as applying for and obtaining a German passport under his real name and got married in Uruguay also using his real name.

Some Germans lived under their real names and others adopted other names and nationalities including Italian nationality. It was well known that countries like Argentina and Uruguay had important Italian immigrant settlements and therefore entering using an Italian passport was the natural thing to do. In those days, people didn't care much about who came from where as long as you could fit in amongst the masses of European immigrants. Moreover, Germans were highly qualified and in developing countries such levels of expertise were in high demand.

The Cold War was on and therefore there was little interest in chasing highly intelligent people who were excellent at practically every job they applied themselves to do.

My own father knew how to fly and had vast knowledge of cheminal compounds and was a professional time keeper. We used to travel round.

Argentina: Falklands and Political Persecution

Argentina: Falklands and Political Persecution

Every time there is political upheaval in Argentina, there is talk about the South Atlantic Islands.

Why? Because it is an easy way to divert attention from the real problems Argentina is facing. 

In spite of the size of Argentina, most of the economic activity of Argentina is focused on what is known as Gran Buenos Aires. Vast areas of Argentina are empty. The fact that transport connections in Argentina are an absolute disaster doesn't make things easy. Reaching certain parts of Argentina is almost impossible and this is why much of the population of Argentina is based a few highly populated centres. Argentina has a bipolar political system. This means that very antagonistic parties have ruled Argentina with the exception of periods when the country has been under Military Dictatorships. This doesn't allow Argentina to have a balanced political system. Those who have watched the movie series The Godfather will easily understand how the political system in Argentina works or doesn't work. Going from crisis to crisis accompanied by the usual witch hunts, the country is an ongoing human tragedy.

In 1982, the Military Junta headed by General Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri was facing the possibility of a revolt in spite of the power of the state and of organised repression. Despite the role of Argentina together with Chile, Uruguay, Brazil and other countries in a system designed by the United States of America to watch over the 'US backyard' to prevent the spread of Communism across Latin America, relations between the members of such club had been seriously undermined by regional disputes. One of such disputes was focused on the Beagle - a territorial bone of contention for Argentina and Chile. Had not been for a Papal Mediation supported by Uruguay, Argentina and Chile - both under Military Regimes - would have gone to war. The conflict was avoided but there was little trust left. Argentina was also competing with Brazil and rivalry between the two Latin American giants has been a feature of Latin American regional relationships for a very long time.

General Leopoldo Galtieri invaded the South Atlantic Islands in what we know as the Falklands War in an attempt to galvanise public opinion in Argentina. The Military Junta was playing for time. The Argentinian Military thought that Britain would not react as it did. For a short-time, the mass media could talk about something that more or less united the Argentinian peoples in a country in which more than 30,000 people seen as Left-Wing were slaughtered by the Argentinian Military Regime that invaded the South Atlantic Islands. 

When I see Labour Party followers and supporters of other Left-Wing organisations supporting the Military Junta of Argentina, I ask myself if those Labour Party followers and supporters actually have a brain to discern what they are talking about. Communists were killed. Socialists were killed. People who supported moderate segments of traditional political parties were killed. Seeing an alliance of Jeremy Corbyn and General Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri is a very strange thing to see and hear about.

When Argentina invaded the South Atlantic Islands, Chile ruled by General Augusto Pinochet did everything in its power to help the United Kingdom facilitating British military operations in the South Atlantic Region. Without the support provided by General Augusto Pinochet, British military operations in the South Atlantic Region would have been difficult, not to say impossible.

What does the British public know about it? Very little. The Labour Party, for example, supported the Argentinian Dictatorship and hated the Military Regime headed by General Augusto Pinochet. They still do. Their understanding of Latin American Affairs is very limited. They love the enemies of Britain and hate those who helped Britain in its hour of need.

Both France and Israel helped Argentina providing the firepower including Mirage Jets and Exocet Missiles. The Argentinian Military Junta had two major concerns: the internal enemies and the external enemies. They needed to maintain most of its Armed Forces in Argentina for fear of an internal rebellion and of a Chilean attack. In the end, the Argentinian Navy played a very minor role in the conflict. Most of the soldiers sent to the South Atlantic Islands were actually conscripts. Argentina didn't have the logistical strength to support the invading forces and the Air Force was left alone to attack British ships in an attempt to delay the arrival of British troops.

It is no secret today that the Argentinian economy is a mess. The country is struggling to keep its creditors at bay and had not been for British support Argentina would have little access to credit facilities. In spite of Britain's support, President Mauricio Macri and his predecessor Cristina Fernández have both used the South Atlantic Islands as diversion from internal political and financial upheaval.

Despite the fact that the Military Junta of 1982 is now history, political persecution goes on. Putting aside genuine cases involving misuse of public funds, Argentinian Prosecutors are going against individuals whose sole crime is to have supported a particular ideological stance. In an effort to use individuals identified as support of the previous President as scapegoats 'to set an example', the Argentinian government of President Macri is attacking innocent people. Yet another political diversion to make the public look in the opposite direction and obvious own-goal.