UK: the most important issue by far is immigration and this is Reform vs Conservative

 

The biggest issue by far in UK politics is immigration

This is a contest between the Reform Party and the Conservative Party

Non since 1997 had the Conservative Party suffered such a catastrophic series of electoral defeats in the United Kingdom. In July 2024, the unthinkable happened and the Labour Party cruised to power after 14 years of a Conservative Party Administration (or should be talk about several Conservative Governments). The fact is that the infighting within the Conservative Party led to several leadership contests and coming and goings in terms of economic policies. Voters lost confidence on a visibly confused and divided Conservative Party to the point that in the last leadership election the new leader was not chosen by a majority of members of the Conservative Party, but merely by Members of Parliament.

The outcome of 2024 was a complete disaster for the Conservative Party that saw its representation in the House of Commons reduced to a few more than a 100 Members of Parliament. The situation did not improve after a series of by-elections caused by personal scandals. This years the Conservative Party was campaigned to maintain control of not less than 16 local authorities. It lost them all.

Internal problems in the Conservative Party have not gone away. In fact, they are exacerbated by the fact that high profile Conservative MPs distance themselves from what is now the main core of what is left of the Conservative Party. Big vote winners of the Conserevative Party have fallen into disrepute. There is no unity and there is still the same level of confusion, aggravated by the fact that many of the issues they are now talking about are issues that they should have dealt with during 14 years of a Conservative Party administration.

So, when it comes to confronting the Reforma Party the question arises. "Why you did not do before what you now tell us that you want to do now? "It is a disarming question. The Conservative Party had a majority in Parliament and did not do what it now promises that it will do when it is stuck in Opposition.

A Conservative Party in Opposition cannot deliver any promises. Therefore many Conservative voters are now supporting the Reform Party and there is confusion about what the Reform Party stands for. Many voters do not have the time nor the inclination to focus on several issues at the same time. They now choose to focus their attention on one particular issue: Immigration. Immigration includes both illegal migration and legal migration. People care about illegal migration precisely because it is illegal and people care about legal migration because legal migration levels are much too high. 

Even the leader of the Labour Party that has always been in favour of mass migration made a statement declaring that new legislation was on the way to curb legal migration.

The more the Conservative Party attacks the Reform Party the more voters feel inclined to support the Reform Party. Why? Because in the Reform Party there is clarity of purpose about an issue most people care about. At this point in time, in certain areas, the Reform Party is winning against both Labour and Conservative. In other areas, the Labour Party has to fear the advances of the Green Party. If the Green Party manages to replace Labour in many areas and if the retreating Conservatives turn out to support the Reform Party then the chances of success of the Reform Party are vastly improved.

Next year, once again, there are local elections and all 32 local authorities in Greater London will be contested. Whatever the Labour government has done since July 2024 and whatever the Labour government will do until May 2026 will have an impact. Unfulfilled promises and discontent about policies implemented will play a very important role at local level. It could be said that the Greater London Elections will be the starting point of the campaign for the 2028 London Assembly Elections and soon after that there is going to be another General Election in 2029. There is an electoral progression that, for the moment, does not favour Labour or Conservative. The Reform Party and the Green Party stand to benefit at every level. 

Since the Liberal Party - now known as Liberal Democratic Party - was relegated to third place, there has never been anything so trascendental in British Politics. The Conservative Party has reigned supreme during most of the history of Parliamentary Democracy in the United Kingdom. The thought that the Conservative Party could be relegated to third or fourth place in the first quarter of the Twenty-First Century speaks volumes about the political challenges Britain is facing.