Local Authorities: the realities of No Overall Control

The fact is that No Overall Control give third parties with just a few representatives enormous decision making capabilities. They only need to swing from one side to another as they see fit, supporting either the rulling party or the main opposition party, to extract whatever they want.

As an example, Labour had total control of both Lambeth and Southwark. Not anymore. All Greens have a majority in both Lambeth and Southwark, the Greens do not have an absolute majority. This means that the Liberal Democrats, by supporting, opposing or amending any initiative can control the flow of events.

Monday´s extraordinary session at Lambeth Borough Council was a clear example of things to come, There was amendment after amendment and the Liberal Democrats got away with it. Not only that. The number of representatives in each committee went from 6 to 7.

Labour MPs were sitting as part of the audience, witnessing something that would have been unthinkable just weeks ago and that now has become a reality. How will recent electoral changes affect the London Assembly Elections and the next General Election?

Notwithstanding what is happening at local level, all eyes are now focused on the coming by-election in Makerfield where a potential challenger of the Labour Primer Minister Keir Starmer will be seeking a possible return to Westminster.

18 June 2026 - Makerfield Battle for Britain?

Makerfield By-Election: All political forces will be there?

Labour is reportedly asking the Green Party not to stand, but Green Party supporters have stated that they will stand. The fear is that the Green Party will take away valuable votes that will make it more difficult for Labour to win. A win in Makerfield is important for a myriad of reasons. For the Labour Party it is about survival. Losing both Makerfield and Manchester, after two series of disastrous local elections is too much to bare. 

For the Green Party it is a test of its newly found popularity that led the Green Party to take control or almost all control of what used to be Labour Party strongholds. How safe are Labour MP seats? Recently, the Green Party got an MP elected in a by-election called because of the resignation of a Labour MP.

For Reform, it is the challenge of winning a Labour Party seat, on top of the many council seats taken away from both Labour and Conservatives. And what about the Conservative Party? Standing to lose to Reform? Making it easy for Labour or Green to take the seat?  Friends or Foes?

For the country, it is the possibility of getting, yet again, a non elected Prime Minister. People will soon start asking about mandates. Nigel Farage predicted that in 2026 there was going to be a General Election. Could Andy Burnham, if chosen as Prime Minister, call a General Election? Would he be willing to risk the more than 400 seats that Labour has now in Parliament?

The election is just weeks away, and what happens in Makerfield does matter.

Will Labour supporters support Andy Burnham, abstain or vote Reform?

 

The Guardian: Andy Burnham to face Reform´s Robert Kenyon in crucial Makerfield by-election?

There is no doubt about the fact of why Andy Burnham has decided to stand in a by-election that will cost him is seat as Manchester Mayor and possibly lead him into the wilderness if he looses the by-election.

London Metropolitan Labour blocked Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election before the local elections and Labour lost the seat that by-then Andy Burnham wanted to stand for. 

There are different versions of events.

One version was that Keir Starmer did not want Andy Burnham to return to the House of Commons as MP and potentially challenge him for the leadership of the Labour Party. If successful, Andy Burnham had a chance of replaceing Keir Starmer as British Prime Minister.

Another version of events is that the Labour Party blocked Andy Burnham afraid of the fact that is Andy Burnham resigned as Mayor of Manchester then the Labour Party would lose the Mayoral seat in Manchester.

Whatever version of events you choose to believe, the fact that in the local elections Reform walked away with a huge number of seats makes the experience of standing to confront Reform in Manchester a very dangerous experience.

But then the question arises: what will Labour voters do, depending on which faction of the Labour Party they support.

1) Will they vote for Andy Burnham thus increasing the possibility of a success that will take him all the way into the House of Commons and make him a challenger for the Leadership of the Labour Party?

2) Will they abstain thus making failure a certainty? and 3) Will they even consider supporting the Opposition to send Andy Burnham into the wilderness, as a way to protect Keir Starmer?

Just two years ago, Robert Kenyon came second in the 2024 General Election that Labour won by a landslide, but this was before the local elections that almost wiped out Labour across Manchester. There are other players and they do matter if they chip support away from the main contenders. 

This has turned out to be one of the most decisive by-elections in British history.  What happens in Makerfield will affect the ruling party and the country as a whole. If Andy Burnham wins then the door will be opened for a leadership challenge. If Andy Burnham loses, he would have lost not only a by-election but also his seat as Manchester Mayor,

The Labour Party could lose both a by-election in Makerfield and the Manchester Mayor seat, and this after a disastrous set of local elections.