Monday, 17 June 2019

Until Brexit is completed, there will be no deal

Until Brexit is completed, there will be no deal

A quick look at what is happening in the main EU countries is more than enough to understand that the EU is in no position to negotiate anything. If anything, the EU has to devote all its energies to prevent a meltdown that would lead to the extinction of the EU.

In France, President Macron doesn't seem to be getting things done. It looks like a growing crisis that threaten the very foundation of democracy in France. Showering French citizens with tear gas and water cannons, and engaged in unwarranted acts of violence, Police forces that follow President Macron's orders are turning France into a battlefield. 

In Germany, the sheer idea of having to go cap in hand to ask German taxpayers for more money to subsidise failing economies is a sobering thought for ailing Angela Merkel that knows that she is being watched from inside and from outside the CDU/CSU. She is no longer leader of the ruling coalition very much like Theresa May is no longer leader of the Conservative Party and is very much yesterday's Chancellor.

Events in Austria, Poland, Hungary, Italy and elsewhere are not reassuring either. In Spain, recently elected Members of the European Parliament are not being allowed to join the European Parliament because of the struggle for independence in Catalonia. 

Contenders in the leadership election in the Conservative Party or those in opposition can talk about a deal but it is a deal that no longer exists. It was killed by Parliament and led to the downfall of Theresa May. Most of the world deals with WTO terms and has been doing so for a very long time. The issue is the survival of a protectionist club called European Union (before European Community, earlier Common Market) that almost single-handed led to a debacle across the Developing World when over-production and subsidies caused a dramatic fall of agricultural prices and the creation of massive foreign debt in countries that very much depend on agriculture to make ends meet.

Delivering Brexit is a sine qua non for the Conservative Party. They know that they either deliver Brexit or are replaced by the Brexit Party under a Marxist Prime Minister. This has enormous implications for Britain and for international equilibrium. Whatever is left of the |Special Relationship could come to an end. This is not just the crisis regarding Huawei. This is Huawei and everything else including Britain's membership of NATO.

Britain should seek to preserve the Conservative government by getting Brexit done as a way to prevent a major geopolitical catastrophe.

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