Why mainstream political parties are losing ground and fringe parties have become mainstream?

 

Just a decade ago, CDU/CSU used to call the shot in German politics and European politics. In fact, the German Chancellor and the French President used to have the final word in quite a few of the most important decisions made by the European Union.

But it must be said that CDU/CSU had to cohabitate with SPD in a marriage of convenience and this lasted until CDU/CSU fell catastrophically opening the way for the unthinkable: a coalition between German Conservatives FPD, SPD Social Democrats and Grüne Socialists.

The EU Parliament Elections have shown a rebirth of CDU and allowed AfD to surpass SPD while FPD and Grüne have fallen.

The call is very straightforward: German peoples do matter and must be the main priority for Germany. Decades of open doors and policies that mainly benefit non Germans have been rejected by German voters that face a very uncertain future as German economics has been seriously undermined both by environmental policies and an energy crisis that has increased energy costs and cut energy supplies.

Pushing forward environmental policies at the expense of the German economy is not good policy. The first two gigantic mistakes were made by Angela Merkel when she decided to get rid of nuclear power and open the floodgates for migration. Her almost unilateral decisions created animosity in Eastern Europe as most people coming to Germany had to go through Eastern European countries to reach Germany. Then, she made the equally astonishing statement ´Multikulti ist tot´ (Multikulturalism is dead). We are not in the mind of Angela Merkel, but we can guess that since then she has regretted getting rid of Nuclear Power and of having open the floodgates for migration.

By the end of her reign as German Chancellor, her own political party was not ready to give her a blank cheque. In order to remain as German Chancellor she was forced to resign as Leader of the CDU.

In France, Emmanuel Macron saw that he could not go on as usual when his official candidate for Prime Mnister got barely 15% in the European Parliament Elections. The decision to call for a Parliamentary Election was not easy but it had to be taken. Left, Right and Centre rejected his policies. Now, on June 30th and on July 1st, he faces the challenge and the possibility of having a Rassemblement National Prime Minister and a hostile National Assembly till the end of his term as French President. Emmanuel Macron will still have veto power, but from a political point of view he might have to deal with policies that go very much against his own policies. So both in the French Assembly and in the European Parliament decisions would be in the hands of Rassemblement National.

 

Britain: What happens after the General Election? The package of promises falls apart when confronted with reality.

 

A few days ago came the news that life for 4 million people in the UK will turn into a nightmare if they don´t manage to regularize their visas turning paper visas into digital visas. 4 million people? How much can the state apparatus do from now until 31 December 2024? 

How many people are needed to locate and process 4 millon visas in such a short period? But this is a minute dot in terms of things that will need to be done. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has formally committed a new Labour government to increase salaries across the entire public sector and Unions are already on a war footing to keep the now Shadow Chacellor of the Exchequer accountable.

The promise about getting rid of Zero Hour Contracts might erode even more public services in an attempt to improve working conditions in the UK and the effect in the private sector must not be underestimated. Faced with the prospect of having to issue regular contracts with all legal requirements, both the public sector and the private sector will struggle.

Grant Shapps as Defence Secretary has been struggling to explain where he is going to find more than 70 billion Pound to beef up the Armed Forces. The same questions will be asked to a new Defense Secretary since Grant Shapps has publicly acknowledged that he believes that the Conservative Party will lose the General Election.

The clock is ticking and many of the faces we see today as symbols of power and decision making will vanish and probably soon to be forgotten. Should announcements made about critical issues be postponed until we know who is going to be in command? Whatever the present authorities say today could be absolutely irrelevant in a few days time. It is a tradition that a new Parliament is not bound to follow what the outgoing Parliament decides.

With a new Parliament, today´s points of reference will vanish. There will be a new political reality. Rachel Reeves has already announced that there will be a new relationship with the European Union. Does this mean the end of Brexit? Reform´s campaign might have a lot to do not with destroying the Conservative Party but with assurances regarding the present relationship with the European Union. the irony is that freedom from any budgetary restrictions gives Britain the necessary flexibility to increase public deficits. We known what happened with the ERM, precursor of the EURO. Will a government headed by Keir Starmer want to fall into the same trap John Major and his government were in before finally deciding to step out of the ERM? What did Tony Blair and Gordon Brown avoid joining the EURO? Precisely because of what happened with the ERM?  

  

Labour will put up taxes: no matter how many times they try to deny it, improvements have to be paid for

 

No matter how many times, Keir Starmer or any other Labour party supporter tries to deny it, the fact remains that promises made by the Labour Party will have to be paid for by rising taxes and Council Tax is the one thing that will be targetted as it was targetted in Birmingham to try to rescue Birmingham from bankruptcy. 

You cannot increase salaries across the public sector and invest monies to rescue the British Armed Forces from extermination without paying for it with higher taxes. For many, next July is going to be a very hot summer and not just because of weather conditions. 

Remember: there is no free lunch. And we must start wondering how rising taxes and rising prices in the shops are going to affect the economy and what the political consequences will be for the country as a whole. Any worsening of financial circumstances will push people towards extremes.

The Truth shall set you free: You cannot promise salary increases and all kinds of improvements without putting up taxes, borrowing or both borrowing and putting up taxes

 

As July 4th 2024 approaches, both of the main contenders in the UK General Election are promising cakes and promising that you can eat your cake, and that you will have the same cake after eating it. They will have to put up taxes and borrow ever more and most probably print monies in what has been known as 'quantitative easing'. 

The Unions are already making noises and saying that they will request that promises made by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves are delivered. She has already spoken about salary increases in the public sector and this includes the most fundamental services like the NHS, the biggest employer in Europe and possibly the biggest employer in the world.

July 4th, 2024 happens to be Independence Day in the USA, but in Britain it might become Dependence Day if prices get out of control and people end up seeing the buying power of their income reduced. The Covid Pandemic and the energy crise generated by geopolitical decisions kicked in inflation and force the Bank of England to put up interest rates, but in spite of interest rate rises prices paid for basic items of the family basket are high and rising. How much people need to earn to have a roof over their heads? How much do they need to earn to feed themselves properly?

Funny to see on the pages of The Guardian comments about working families and pensioners as if they were part of different species. The reality is that more and more people already retired are returning to work to make ends meet and therefore they are part of working families. Most people could not possibly survive if their sole income was a pension.

European Elections: Instead of thinking about the reasons why, politicians plan to regroup to continue ignoring the reasons why people are voting what they are voting for

 

Instead of listening to voters, political parties plan to gang up to continue ignoring the reasons people voted what they voted for.

What so called maintream political parties lack is the intelligence to listen to people and to do what people want them to do.

Unbridled migration is increasingly opposed and this is why more and more people are voting againt mainstream political parties that promote unbridled migration. So what mainstream political parties plan to do? To continue promoting unbridled migration.

If you are the manager of a company that produces products that nobody wants, you won't have a brilliant future. Mainstream political parties don't seem to get the message. People don't want to spend more money that they don't even have to buy fancy alternatives that they don't need. Greens across Europe are discovering that scaremongering no longer works when you have got to pay higher bills. In Germany, SPD down, Grüne down and FDP down because of its association with SPD and Grüne in a desperate coalition. In fact, support for SPD - the ruling party collapsed to less than 14 per cent and is now below AfD that got 16 per cent and rising. How democratic it is for such coalition to continue ruling Germany?

Warmongering Grüne are being rejected by German voters. Germany needs energy to continue as the manufacturing and exporting leader in Europe. Firstly, Germany was let down by Angela Merkel that got rid of nuclear power making Germany practically entirely dependent on fossil fuels - much of which had to be imported from abroad. When due to geopolitical decisions, imports were reduced, Germany ended up depending more and more on coal. Because of their geopolitical stances, Grüne seems to support the use of fossil fuels. This contradiction left them exposed and people are walking away from them.