UK: Money is the cost of political decisions, but it can also be measured in lives lost

 

Money is the cost of political decisions, but it can also be measured in lives lost

The cost of dealing with the Covid pandemic has been enormous. Lives lost or damaged, job lost, the burden of anxiety and despair plus the economic and political cost.

But in essence, every political decisions has a cost attached. The cost of decision making when dealing with a crisis cannot be underestimated. When wrong decisions are made there is also a cost. Britain has been acting like a gambler, betting and hoping to win, but losing along the way. This gambling behaviour has been at the core of British geopolitical decisions. On the one hand there was the intent of saving money by cutting corners and on the other was the intent to remain relevant.

Afghanistan and Iraq have proven how wrong it was to cut corners while at the time attempting to remain relevant and and the consequences were shambolic. Politicians like to sound impressive and impressive it was the idea of investing hundreds of millions of Pound to build what were thought be state of the art aircraft carriers that have been beset by disasters. On top of delays came the realisation that structures were far from perfect and lead to leaks. As if this wasn't enough, it was understood that the carriers could be operational, but without the aircraft that should carry onboard. The latest chapter was HMS Prince of Wales when having left Porstmouth it had to return to port just when it was on its way for a long naval exercise and these was due to 'technical problems'. If Britain was at war, such kind of deficiences would be unforgivable.

What happens to the British Royal Navy in terms of mishaps does not end there, but other branches of the British Armed Forces are facing challenges. The recruitment crisis is not about lack of candidates to join the British Armed Forces. It is about suitability. Of those wanting to join in, there is a huge percentage in terms of those not judged fit to join in. This is why there was the idea of opening the gates allowing candidates from the Commonwealth to join. That did not go well. Now, recent decisions made in terms of recruitment have been criticized. Positive discrimination, not allowing white candidates to join in, has led to a new low. Trying to be politically correct, those in charge have made a difficult situation even worse. If those wanting to join in - if they trully wanted to join in - are ultimately judged not fit for purpose or if standards are lowered to allow them to join in then there will be serious questions to ask about fighting capabilities. The British Armed Forces do not have the necessary manpower and are also critically stretched in terms of material capabilities. Should Britain have to face a real threat involving a sustained long term effort, Britain would be facing mortal danger without the tools needed to get itself out of danger. Today's Britain is less capable than the Britain of 1940. 

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss spoke about her willingness of 'pressing the button' should it be necessary. Well, without the necessary conventional forces, 'pressing the button' might be the only one thing to do when everything else is missing. Just a few weeks ago, she stated that she was in favour of reducing manpower. It seems that all she has in mind is the nuclear deterrent and IT capabilities to deal with dangers linked to Internet. The formerly glorious Royal Navy had to be committed to the task of patrolling the Channel because Britain does not have enough patrol boats and this didn't go well either. Using warships to chase small ships and rubber boats is not ideal.

Building huge aircraft carriers was expensive and time consuming. One wonders how much could have been done instead of building such huge aircraft carriers. How long did the Bismark last? Were any lessons learnt? Titanic comes to mind. Given the way the British Armed Forces are managed, they could well become the new Titanic.

And when all this is happening, Britain faces a financial crisis of major proportions that threatens to unleash waves of social and political unrest. Will politicians be able to deliver all the promised budget increases? The months ahead come with the threat of blackouts, rationing, riots and defaults. Does internal upheaval make a country stronger? 

 

 

  

As Liz Truss threatens the Russian Federation with nuclear war, the Russian Federation launches covert national mobilization

 

What about the situation that is developing does the favourite to become British Prime Minister not understand?

If somebody threatens you, what do you do? Launch a pre-emptive attack. Within 15 minutes London will be history. That is the time it takes for a nuclear missile to reach London if launched from Kaliningrad. Hustings are turning into a dangerous circus. 

What is said by British politicians are being studied and every bit of information is being sent abroad to build a profile of what could be the next move. In the meantime, Boris Johnson, the outgoing Prime Minister is asking Britons to put up with an impending economic catastrophe.

Britain is today is an worst position that the position it was in in 1940. For decades now, one government after another has been weakening Britain to the point that Britain's military manpower is less than 80,000 and Britain does not have the capability to patrol its own coasts and its security services don't have the necessary manpower to track every possible terror operator, let alone tracking an organised attack within Britain carried out by well trained operators with a specific agenda.

The Russian Federation does not need to even attempt to attack Britain. British politicians are themselves busy destroying Britain. Improvisation, miscalculation, lack of awareness of the consequences. It is the law of unintended consequences that would push Britain downhill. 

Napoleon described Britain as a nation of shopkeepers. Paradoxically, the said shopkeepers kept Britain alive. Now, British shopkeepers are falling prey of British politicians. 

The news came today that for fear of dealing with bankruptcies and unpaid debts, energy providers are refusing to extend long term energy contracts for small businesses. If the hospitality industries and small businesses are forced to close down - many in the said hospitality industries and small business barely managed to survive the Covid pandemic - the most vulnerable will be once again severely hit.

And what happens to farming? Farmers barely survive thanks to subsidies, subsidies that will be devalued by inflation. Energy rationing? Food rationing? Blackouts? A cabinet minister indicated that he is not in favour of electricity rationing. Well, the words 'if necessary' not only apply to nuclear weapons. The authorities will be forced to impose rationing.  

  

The importance of language learning

Not knowing a language and not making an effort to learn a language is a form of disability. Some people cannot hear - this is called deafness. Some people cannot talk and this means that they are mute. If you hear and talk, but cannot communicate then you are disabled.

Not learning a language can also be the consequence of negative attitudes. The usual comment I hear as justification for not making an effort to learn a certain language is 'It is too difficult'. Another common excuse is 'I don't like it'. People who have such attitudes often deprive themselves of the opportunity of having a normal life and/or a successful life.

By not learning a language you are deprived of first hand knowledge and first hand experiences and constantly depending on other people to know what is actually going on.  You only have access to somebody else's interpretation or understanding of what is going on.

When it comes to sciences and especially to mathematics, we encounter similar kinds of attitudes. People want to have a better job, more work opportunities, but they are not willing to do what needs to be done to have a better job and more work opportunities.

Learning sciences is also about communication. Without acquiring certain skills, your understanding will be limited and you will always be prey of those who want you to believe what they want you to believe. How can you be able to make informed decisions if what you precisely lack is the capacity to understand and evalue the data and views you are faced with?

To be able to make an informed decision, you must know what everything is about. 

Conservative Party about to break one of two new records?

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the third female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

The original article indicated 'second female Prime Minister' when in fact it should have been said that she would be the third female Prime Minister. We totally forgot Theresa May. 

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

British Conservative Party is about to break a record: first Asian Prime Minister or second female Prime Minister

On September 5th 2022 in Britain, the Conservative Party will break a new record whoever is elected British Prime Minister: it would be the first Asian Prime Minister or the second female Prime Minister, after a leadership campaign in which there was a very diverse range of candidates.

Candidates openly disagreed regarding many issues and no one knows with any degree of certainty what will the direction of travel of the new Conservative government. The next hurdle is the choice a new Conservative Cabinet to support the agenda of whoever is elected. Expertise and stamina will be in high demand given the kind of problems the new government will have to deal with from the very beginning. There are extremely hard choices ahead. It is all about energy: energy of the chosen team to deal with lack of energy that is pushing up inflation and leading to industrial unrest.

The situation is especially worrying since British woes are directly linked to geopolitical decisions made by the present government of which one was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the other still is Foreign Secretary. Until the beginning of the electoral campaign, they were part of the same team, but during the hustings both candidates let it be clear that their agendas were remarkably different. 

The one thing they have got in common is the concept of self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency when it comes to energy supplies will be on a collision course with enviromental commitments. For strategic reasons, Britain might have to delay, water down or even push aside many of the declared goals. Fracking could be at the core of new efforts to make Britain self-sufficient.

Having said that, in the immediate future, the new government will have to deal with the fact that there will be shortages and that the costs of energy might not be coming down as many would like them to come down. The words 'rationing' and 'blackouts' have been mentioned as something Britain will have to face in the coming months.  

 

UK: In just a few weeks, the British economy could be in the doldrums and much stronger leadership will be needed

 

What is happening right now is deeply worrying because the times of easy money could be coming to an abrupt end. The issue is not just rising inflation. The issue is that salaries and pensions have been pegged to inflationary pressures. 

At this point in time, asking for salary rises pegged to inflation could itself be a force towards more inflation and more borrowing when interest payments will be taking their toll on public finances.

And what if, as expected, the Treasury does not agree to salary increases that it could hardly afford? Would the state sector be ground to a halt? It is understandable that public workers that are seeing their incomes devalued are prone to ask for salary rises. Having said that, those in charge know full well that public finances have been drained and that any monies to pay for higher salaries will come from additional borrowing at a time when interest rates are going up and from an increase in taxation.

If energy is the main driver when it comes to inflationary pressures, then more energy will have to be produced and to do so all the promises in terms of a reduction of the use of fossil fuels will have be put aside. In the 1970s, Britain was almost brought down to its knees and the country was working just a few days a week. The issue was then energy or lack of it. Today, the issue is the price of it. Whoever takes the reins of power in September will have to make difficult choices. Doing less to save energy is not an option. Slowing down the British economy by enforcing energy savings will make matters a lot worse. 

We learnt from the imposed Covid lockdown leading to lack of economic activity that slowing down the British economy will cost livelihoods: businesses will be closed down and an undetermined number of jobs will be lost. Companies that generate little or no revenue at all have no reason to maintain jobs. Less economic activity endangers jobs and produces less tax revenues. If you slow down an aircraft in plain flight the time comes when the only way is down. We cannot have yet another loss of economic activity. We need energy and we need energy wherever we can find it. If foreign oil and gas producers don't want or cannot provide additional oil and gas, Britain will have to become self-sufficient and all options should be on the cards, including fracking.

Whoever is chosen as Prime Minister will have to make hard choices and implement decisions that will prove to be as unpopular as fundamentally necessary. Whether Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss is in command, he or she will have to forget about popularity contests. The popularity contest is only there to get one of them elected. Real governance demands dogged determination to do what is right.   

British Politics: 2022 a crucially important moment

BBC? Channel 4? Radio? With audience levels falling and falling, how relevant they are compared to what they used to be 10, 20 or 30 years ago? How the digital era, including social media, have changed in terms of public opinion, in terms of their influence in decision making? This is an open conversation to talk frankly and politely.

This is about communication and about being able to listen to a wide range of points of view while keeping an open mind. Given what is going on in Europe, is there a mass media war?

Are anti-Russian measures and mass media policies leading to financial, social and political chaos in Britain and in Europe? Inflation is out of control, interest rates are rising, industrial unrest in increasing, both public debt and private debt are growing faster and faster, and countries could become unstable.

In Britain, more than a quarter of about 2.1 million mortgages could be in danger putting the banking system, once again, in danger, causing a lot more than a mere recession. What are your thoughts?

In the meantime, in Britain, as a defining moment gets closer, it is understandable that tensions will rise, but tensions will soon be followed by an anti-climax when the decision is made and minds are focused on what will be the next  Cabinet.

 As soon as the new Cabinet is known, there will be hyperactivity in both political parties.

Somehow, the initial thought was that the rise of industrial unrest would be benefit the Labour Party. What now transpires is that industrial unrest has opened a gap within the Labour Party because there are marked differences between the Leadership of the Labour Party and the Parliamentary Labour Party. As the Conservative Party gives whoever is chosen as Leader the benefit of the doubt - a sort of political honeymoon - the day after the honeymoon has already started within the Labour Party. It is going to be rough.

If rules regarding leadership contests are changed in the Labour Party, then Andy Burham and Sadiq Khan could become contenders. Should Liz Truss become Prime Minister, the pressure to chose a woman leader in the Labour Party will be unbearable and the present Deputy Leader would have more than one reason to challenge Keir Starmer as a female and as somebody who could be closer to the Trade Union Movement. 

Let us remember that all the aforementioned events have as background a crisis of major proportions at an international level and that whoever is in power in Britain and in other countries in Europe will have to deal with.

Time: Aug 7, 2022 06:00 PM London

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