Brexit, Theresa May and Votes of No Confidence

Brexit, Theresa May and Votes of No Confidence

If the 2017 General Election and threats of deselection in the Labour Party tell us that even if there is  Leadership Challenge in the Conservative Party or No Confidence vote in the House of Commons the outcome of such events is by no means certain.

Given the rules of the Conservative Party, if the 48 signatures needed are gathered there will have to be enough Conservative MPs willing to support the challenge against Theresa May. Another calculation that needs to be made is if there are suitable replacements. Is there one Conservative MP willing to stand up with enough support from all factions of a very divided Conservative Party? If the number of MPs ready and willing to support the challenge is not found, Theresa May will be confirmed as Leader and a year will have to pass before there can be another challenge.

After the experiences of what happened in the 2017 General Election, many Conservative MPs will think twice or thrice before challenging the present status quo for fear of losing their seats and opening the door to a Jeremy Corbyn government.

In the Labour Party, the threat of deselection of Labour MPs is very real. Will those Labour MPs standing against Jeremy Corbyn want to take the risk of opening the door to a Jeremy Corbyn government and lose their seats in the process? They might also choose to maintain the status quo for fear of losing their seats and of seeing very unpopular policies implemented by a government led by Jeremy Corbyn. Many Labour MPs feel more secure in their seats having a Conservative government and have more in common with certain factions of the Conservative Party than with their own colleagues of the Labour Party.

The SNP and the Liberal Democrats tried to push Jeremy Corbyn asking him to put forward a Vote of No Confidence. Because he knows that despite the fact that many Labour MPs are against Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn knows that a vast number of Labour voters support Brexit. So for the moment, there is no enthusiasm for a Vote of No Confidence. Moreover, the Labour Party has no credible alternative and is very much stuck and unable to offer a solution. All they have been able to do is to attack the Conservative Party to try and hide divisions and lack of alternatives within the Labour Party.

The Labour Party can say that they are very much in favour of General Election but in reality many Labour MPs fear that the prospect of a General Election could lead to a purge of the Parliamentarian Labour Party. To avert the danger of deselection some prominent MPs have said that they would stand as Independent Labour Candidates, trusting that voters would give them the support that they don't have from their own Labour branches.