Brexit: The climate of political uncertainty could lead to the unthinkable

Brexit: The climate of political uncertainty could lead to the unthinkable

This evening while travelling I asked an elderly passenger on a train going home if in his own personal experience he had witnessed a political crisis like the one Britain is facing right now. You can ask a politician, a journalist, an ordinary member of the public and nobody has the faintest idea about 'what next?'.

The House of Commons is due to consider on January 29 2018 a deal negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May that will be presumably exactly the same deal that many Members of Parliament said that they would reject because they think that it is a very bad deal for Britain and its relations with the European Union, a deal that does not respect the will of the British Electorate expressed in the 2016 Referendum on EU Membership.

There are those who push for a Vote of No Confidence against the present British government headed by Theresa May. Some see it as a way to force Prime Minister Theresa May to resign. Some talk about a General Election and others talk about a new Referendum on EU Membership.

One wonders about what could happen if Theresa May - that has just been confirmed as Leader of the Conservative Party after a Leadership Challenge - loses a Vote of No Confidence in the House of Commons. Even if the Deal the Prime Minister negotiated by Parliament, Theresa May would continue as Prime Minister because of regulations of the Conservative Party that prevent any challenges. She could stay as Prime Minister for another year.

Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn hesitates about asking for a Vote of No confidence. Having done the political sums, he knows that a Vote of No Confidence is a risky option. Members of Parliament from all political parties - including the Labour Party - could vote against it. It could unite the Conservative Party and produce an embarrassing defeat for the Labour Party under his leadership. Moreover, most Labour Constituencies across the country voted to Leave the European Union.

At Committee Level, enquiries have continued about the level of preparedness to face a No Deal outcome. The legality of the Deal proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May has been questioned since it goes against legislation passed by Parliament that determined that Britain will be leaving the European Union on March 29th 2019.  

In May 2019, about a month after Britain is set to leave the European Union, there will be European Parliament Elections that would produce a new political reality in the European Union. What kind of EU Parliament and what kind of European Commission would the said elections produce? Would there be a more favourable environment in terms of a better agreement with the United Kingdom?

Prime Minister Theresa May was severely criticised for not putting her Deal to a vote on the day it was supposed to be put to a vote. Some say that it happened because she was afraid of yet another significant defeat in the House of Commons that could end her political career. Others say that she is playing for time trying to get further concessions from the EU.