2021: Is war in Europe possible? History chemistry indicates that it is

Adolf Hitler was an ideologue. He described in Mein Kampf about the policies that he would implement during World War Two. Expansion towards the East was a pretty clear intention. Jo Biden is a demagogue, but equally capable of sending Europe into an abyss via pure miscalculation.Just a few days ago, Britain continued playing with fire - the intentions were confirmed in a leaked Ministry of Defense Report. Britain wanted to provoke a Russian military reaction by sending HMS Defender to Crimea.

Wars are possible in any century. All it takes is the right conditions. I believe in what I call history chemistry. If you get the right elements in the right amounts you get war. Winston Churchill was laughed at when he predicted war in Europe.

Two major competing centres of industrial development: Britain and Germany. He concluded that war was inevitable. They were not working together, but trying to outdo each other. At one point in time war was inevitable.

During World War Two, the German Ambassador met the British Ambassador in Switzerland. He told the British Ambassador that if Britain gave Germany a freehand in Europe then Germany would respect Britain's Empire and Germany and Britain could peacefully coextist. Britain foresaw that as soon as German power was consolidated in Europe, expansion would continue. This despite the fact that Adolf Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf that he was not interested in conquest that would involve the sea. He believed that Germany's future was expansion towards the East.

In 1941, when the Luftwaffe had failed to open the way for an invasion of Britain (Goering had promised that the Luftwaffe could control the RAF) he turned and look towards Russia. Soviet Russia had failed to defeat Finland in the first attempt and could only manage to do so in the second attempt. This led to the belief that the Soviet Armies were not fit for purpose after Stalin's purge of the high ranks of Aristrocratic descent. Moreover, Soviet Russia feared a Japanese attack from the East and could not mobilize its armies from Siberia.

Unternehmen Barbarossa started on June 22, 1941, but having to divert forces towards Greece to help Mussolini meant that the push could not happen as planned. As if this was not enough, Japan attacks Pearl Harbour bringing in the USA into the war and freeing Soviet troops from Siberia to come to the West. The German attack against the Soviet Union opened a war in two fronts - something that Adolf Hitler had written against in Mein Hampf - and made the alliance Britain/USA/Soviet Union possible.

Any conflict between the USA and Russia will lead Russia to close ranks with China and China will feel free to launch a military campaign in Asia. Burma is already inside the Chinese area of influence. Japan would be cut off. The smaller countries will fall like a house of cards. There are already regular skirmishes along the border between China and India because of competing interests for oil in the Sea of China. There is a delicate balance and any action that could alter than balance can start a war.

USA and Britain's provocation attempts can only reinforce the will to go to war. China is increasingly bothered by foreign interference in Chinese internal affairs. Russia will not react to provocation, but the ground rules have already been set up by saying that 'any repeats of the incident involved HMS Defender will lead to miitary measures'. Britain wants war in Europe, but any miscalculation could have dramatic consequences. China's economic influence in Africa could turn into something else.