Henry Kissinger: Why he is right and why he is wrong

 

Henry Kissinger: Why he is right and why he is wrong

With regards to what Kenry Kissinger proposer to get out of the present impasse in Ukraine, there are arguments in favour and arguments against what he proposes.

Sometimes the solution is determined by circumstances on the ground that make any other alternative impossible. If you take North Korea and South Korea as an example, you could say that having North Korea, South Korea and a demilitarised buffer zone in between was the best that could be achieved given the balance of forces on the ground that made any other option unavailable.

With regards to Ukraine, specifically, there are realities on the ground that need to be recognized. Although there is a country called Ukraine with clearly defined geographic limits when it comes to people the situation is pretty blurred. You have areas where Ukrainian elements are the fundamental majority. There are areas when there is a more or less balanced mix of ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. There are areas where ethnic Russians are the distinct majority. This has been reflected in electoral results long before the present crisis occurred. I was speaking with a Polish lady today and she was telling that her parents were Polish because they were born in Ukraine in regions that used to be part of Poland when they were born. I guess there is the same kind of dilemma for people of many other ethnic backgrounds and nationalities because European borders have been changing and countries that existed at one point no longer exist today. 

There was something called Yugoslavia not long ago. Now, there are several countries that shared a common past for decades that suddenly are no longer part of the same unit. You have got Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia Herzegobina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, et cetera. People that were German by birth because at the time of their birth a given region was part of Germany saw changes first hand when the said region became part of Poland as part of the political arrangements at the end of World War Two. This has happened and is going to continue happening in the future as what we believed to be the status quo - something that would last forever and ever - was transient.

If the idea is to dismantle Ukraine geographically, this might be an alternative but poses many dangers. If the idea is to keep Ukraine geographically as one item this also poses many dangers. In fact, the present crisis did not start in 2022. It actually started in 2014 with all the comings and goings of Ukrainian internal politics. One side of Ukraine wanted to go West and another side of Ukraine did not want to go West. Frictions led to internal conflict, internal conflict led to Civil War and ultimately ended up being a war that went beyond present national boundaries.

Perhaps Henry Kissinger's proposal is to implement in Ukraine a similar path to the one followed by Yugoslavia where different ethnic groups followed different paths. It sounds reasonable, but there are also pitfalls. You would have two major powers side to side with nothing in between. You would have one side of Ukraine very much attached to the West and another side of Ukraine very much attached to the Russian Federation, with huge grievances and mistrust and nothing in between. Even with a buffer zone that it will be very difficult to police and maintain there is no guarantees for a lasting peace.

Another possibility would be to treat the whole of Ukraine as a buffer zone between NATO countries and the Russian Federation. Can this be achieved? In an unstable country like Ukraine, with high levels of corruption, there are no guarantees either that internal operators and external operators will not seek to undermine any agreement made to turn Ukraine into a buffer zone.

For the moment, the only solution is a conflict that will go on and on, a permanent economic disaster, in a country ravaged by war. The next question that needs to be raised is 'Will Ukraine be able to survive as a country or will it finally cease to exist like Yugoslavia?' Neighbouring country have territorial claims as Ukraine was made up of regions that used to belong to neighbouring countries.